Sundry updates and developments:
• As noted in the regularly updated late counting post, Labor has taken a 67 vote lead in Macquarie, after trailing 39 at the close of counting yesterday. However, there is no guarantee that this represents an ongoing trend to Labor, since most of the gain came from the counting of absents, which would now be just about done. Most of the outstanding votes are out-of-division pre-polls, which could go either way. The result will determine whether the Coalition governs with 77 or 78 seats out of 151, while Labor will have either 67 or 68.
• Labor is reportedly preparing to challenge the result in Chisholm under the “misleading or deceptive publications” provision of the Electoral Act, a much ploughed but largely unproductive tillage for litigants over the years. The Victorian authorities have been rather activist in upholding “misleading or deceptive publications” complaints, but this is in the lower stakes context of challenges to the registration of how-to-vote cards, rather than to the result of an election. At issue on this occasion is Liberal Party material circulated on Chinese language social media service WeChat, which instructed readers to fill out the ballot paper in the manner recommended “to avoid an informal vote”. I await for a court to find otherwise, but this strikes me as pretty thin gruel. The Chinese community is surely aware that Australian elections presume to present voters with a choice, so the words can only be understood as an address to those who have decided to vote Liberal. Labor also have a beef with Liberal material that looked like Australian Electoral Commission material, in Chisholm and elsewhere.
• Political science heavyweights Simon Jackman and Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has breakdowns from a big sample campaign survey in The Guardian, noting that only survey data can circumvent the ecological fallacy, a matter raised in my previous post. The survey was derived from 10,316 respondents from a YouGov online panel, and conducted from April 18 to May 12. The results suggest the Coalition won through their dominance of the high income cohort (taken here to mean an annual household income of over $208,000), particularly among the self-employed, for which their primary vote is recorded as approaching 80%. Among business and trust owners on incomes of over $200,000, the Coalition outpolled Labor 60% to 10%, with the Greens on next to nothing. However, for those in the high income bracket who didn’t own business or trusts, the Coalition was in the low forties, Labor the high thirties, and the Greens the low teens. While Ratcliff in The Guardian seeks to rebut the notion that “battlers” decided the election for the Coalition, the big picture impression for low-income earners is that Labor were less than overwhelmingly dominant.
• As reported in the Financial Review on Friday, post-election polling for JWS Research found Coalition voters tended to rate tax and economic management as the most important campaign issue, against climate change, health and education for Labor voters. Perhaps more interestingly, it found Coalition voters more than twice as likely to nominate “free-to-air” television as “ABC, SBS television” as their favoured election news source, whereas Labor voters plumped for both fairly evenly. Coalition voters were also significantly more likely to identify “major newspapers (print/online)”.
• Two impending resignations from Liberal Senators create openings for losing election candidates. The Financial Review reports Mitch Fifield’s Victorian vacancy looks set to be of interest not only to Sarah Henderson, outgoing Corangamite MP and presumed front-runner, but also to Indi candidate Steve Martin, Macnamara candidate Kate Ashmor and former state MP Inga Peulich.
• In New South Wales, Arthur Sinodinos’s Senate seat will fall vacant later this year, when he takes up the position of ambassador to the United States. The most widely invoked interested party to succeed him has been Jim Molan, who is publicly holding out hope that below-the-line votes will elect him to the third Coalition seat off fourth position on the ballot paper, although this is assuredly not going to happen. As canvassed in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review, other possible starters include Warren Mundine, freshly unsuccessful in his lower house bid for Gilmore; James Brown, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, state RSL president and the husband of Daisy Turnbull Brown, daughter of the former Prime Minister; Michael Hughes, state party treasurer and the brother of Lucy Turnbull; Kent Johns, the state party vice-president who appeared set to depose Craig Kelly for preselection in Hughes, but was prevailed on not to proceed; Richard Sheilds, chief lobbyist at the Insurance Council of Australia; Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor and unsuccessful preselection contender in Wentworth; and Michael Feneley, heart surgeon and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kingsford Smith.
• Federal Labor may have evaded a party membership ballot through Anthony Albanese’s sole nomination, but a ballot is pending for the party’s new state leader in New South Wales, which will pit Kogarah MP Chris Minns against Strathfield MP Jodi McKay. The members’ ballot will be conducted over the next month, the parliamentary party will hold its vote on June 29, and the result will be announced the following day. Members’ ballots in leadership contests are now provided for federally and in most states (as best as I can tell, South Australia is an exception), but this is only the second time one has actually been conducted after the Shorten-Albanese bout that followed the 2013 election. As the Albanese experience demonstrates, the ballots can be circumvented if a candidate emerges unopposed, and the New South Wales branch, for one, has an exception if the vacancy arises six months before an election. Such was the case when Michael Daley succeeded Luke Foley in November, when he won a party room vote ahead of Chris Minns by 33 votes to 12.
Turnout was down in this federal election it was 87.23% in 2019 versus 91.01% in 2016 of registered votes. Do we need to ask do we need to increase fines (currently at $20) for not voting or scrap compulsory voting all together.
Tristo @ #199 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:57 pm
Certainly not the latter option. Unless you want Australia to become the United States. Please don’t turn Australian into the fucking United States.
Or introduce compulsory non-voting in Queensland.
The Canberra Times under its new owner will introduce a paywall early next month. Presumably paywalls will be erected around other titles under the same ownership.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6187733/support-the-journalism-serving-the-national-city/?cs=14225&utm_source=website&utm_medium=story&utm_campaign=sidebar
@a r
Honestly, I don’t believe our politics is much better than America’s currently and that is saying quite a bit.
Tristo @ #204 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 3:01 pm
I’m interested in the similarity of religion dominating certain electorates.
The Illawarra Mercury website has been paywalled for about a year now. Not that this constitutes any significant loss, except for local sport reports and restaurant reviews. The most egregious propaganda of the old right wing Fairfax editors was glorifying our feckless prissy Mayor ad nauseum.
The factions rule.
I still remember the days of the so called faceless men who called the inside shots in the ALP. What’s changed?
I wonder what the quiet Australians think?
Is it really Albo’s show?
Rex:
‘earned the right’
What do you mean by that in the context of the election results ?
——————————
I mean that Shorten devoted several years of his life to a job with relentless demands and significant responsibilities. His electoral success or otherwise doesn’t affect my assessment of whether he can properly decide for himself whether to stay or go, nor does the fact that I wasn’t a fan of Shorten personally and that I didn’t give the ALP my first preference vote. I would say the same incidentally of any leader of a political party, unless they’ve been involved in corruption or criminal conduct. Anyway, whatever I or anyone else thinks, Shorten will decide his own future.
Briefly,
Could you please move on from this topic? You aren’t really adding anything constructive and its becoming tedious to read.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/centrelink-still-issuing-incorrect-robodebts-to-meet-targets-staff-claim?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1559106885
Don’t listen to them Briefly. Your crusade against the Lib-kin, Lib-ling and Lib-Libs are all that’s standing between us and Lib eternity. You must keep going.
ltep says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 1:17 pm
“Shorten has accepted responsibility for the election loss and resigned as leader. As he should. He is a yesterday man with no hope of return to the leadership. As he knows.”
Does he really know? Politicians have a pretty strong tendency to delusional and irrational beliefs. See Abbott, Tony; Rudd, Kevin.
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The examples you give of Abbott and Rudd rather support the conclusion that Shorten knows his time as leader has passed. Why?
Both Abbott and Rudd had to be pushed out every step of the way. They didn’t voluntarily step down. Shorten accepted responsibility for the loss and has stepped down. His election night speech was exemplary in its tone and content even while he was freshly stung by the embarrassment of the horrendous loss. Not much evidence of irrationality methinks.
max @ #208 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 3:15 pm
No worries but we’ll have to agree to disagree on that.
I just think that if you’re elected under a party banner your first loyalty is to the parties interests, not your own. Husic for example has put the party before himself. A man of honour.
As I’ve said, I think it’s clearly in Labors interests for Shorten and Bowen at the very least to move on and give the party clean air.
I have written before about this. There are many things about US politics to like. Citizens initiatives and referendums on the voting ballot is one.
Dan Gulberry
Our friend Nath will presumably disagree due to his inside knowledge, but I reckon being a paediatrician in Western Sydney helping mothers and infants there on a daily basis would probably provide a great deal of insight into the challenges faced by the “great unwashed”
E.G Theodore. I’ve said this once before but just for you: I’ve got nothing against Dr Mike Freelander. When someone asked me who my next target was I nominated him because of the absurdity of disliking the man.
ltep says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 1:42 pm
When will Sarah Coral Hanson-Young be launching her next leadership challenge Rex Next question -how many years/months will the public need to wait to hear about the leadership challenge?
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The Greens need to prepare for taking office as the Government. If the Greens wish to be taken seriously then they need to represent themselves as an alternative party of Government.
With this in mind it is high time Bandt was made the Greens Parliamentary leader as he is the only G in the HoR.
If the Greens just want to be political provocateurs they do not need to run in elections at all. They can spend their time organising countless marches for worthy causes and leave the serious task of governing to those parties who take the task seriously.
nath says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 3:42 pm
E.G Theodore. I’ve said this once before but just for you: I’ve got nothing against Dr Mike Freelander. When someone asked me who my next target was I nominated him because of the absurdity of disliking the man.
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Ahh, that explains your campaign against Shorten!
Carry on. Do tell us how often Freelander picks his nose.
Spare us from Bandt please. I’d even take Sarah in the sen8 over him.
Windhover @ #218 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 3:43 pm
I think the Greens priority in the short term is to grow enough to hold a clear balance of power.
Personally I think that’s their limit. Oh and as far as leadership goes I think Waters is their best option for engagement with the community.
What this country really needs in the short term is the re-structure of Labor to enable it to engage better with the community. Factional hacks and factional power are/is killing the ALP.
The Greens I argue currently are in struggle between the sides which have different views on Capitalism, which are the “capitalism is good, but needs to be reformed to make it fairer” side is in control of the party, expect in NSW where the “capitalism needs to be overthrown” side is in the ascendancy.
The the latter side were to take control of the National party, then Labor would have very serious competition on it’s left. Since the Greens platform would become more like that of the Democratic Socialists of America which Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a part of. Also what is considered an ‘eco-socialist’ platform would really attract a lot of Millennial and Generation Z voters.
Waters is a flat out dud. McKim or Whish-Wilson (at a push) or bust. Siewert is a hard worker too. The rest I’d trade in for a better set of advocates.
@ltep
The only Greens senator that stands out to me is Mehreen Farqui, she is from the moderate left faction of the NSW Greens. BTW I voted for her personally in the Senate for NSW in the election, so I am glad she got re-elected.
I like the look of the dude at the back with the beady eyes. 👀🥴
Al Pal, there are no “faceless men” anywhere in the traditional places of Australian politics. Everybody has got a name, a face and we know exactly where they are and what they are doing. However, this election has introduced a group of true faceless men that nobody knows where they are and how they operate. ScuMo in fact thanked them first and above anybody else on election night, when he mentioned that his victory was a “miracle”. That’s code speak to thank his Christian mates form his Pentecostal and perhaps other churches, who helped in the campaign in support of the Liberal party and against the ALP. … Look for their catacombs… there is where they meet…
Rex @3:32… no problems. Agreeing to disagree in a civilised manner is in short supply around here sometimes. Our degree of disagreement is probably pretty subtle actually. I also think that it would be in the interests of the Labor Party for Shorten to move on, and quite possibly in his own personal interests as well. If he wants to stay though I would not hold it against him.
Is that final? Wouldnt there still be votes to count that might increase that?
There is certainly a swing to informal votes. 790,000 of them.
I’ll wait a bit to judge Senator Faruqi, but she reads all of her speeches rather than speaking off the cuff, which is a bad sign. A truly great advocate should have the skills to speak without referring to pre-written speeches in my view. I’ve yet to also see a burning passion from her.
Speaking of burning, one thing that has been puzzling me recently is Morrison’s repeated use of the phrase that the Government will “burn” for Australians. What on Earth does that mean?
Rex Douglas @ #222 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 3:51 pm
I should correct myself.
Union hacks and union power is killing the ALP. For example, the wedge created by the CFMMEU re Adani/thermal coal. Crazy stuff.
max @ #228 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 4:02 pm
Civil debate is good Max. It’s nice not to attacked as a Libling Russian bot gizmo grub for a change. 🙂
Looking at the new list of marginals….
Am I right to say that the ALP will need a 2PP of abt 53-47 to form majority government in 2022? With the usual assumption on uniform swings.
“except in NSW where the “capitalism needs to be overthrown” side is in the ascendancy”…
Had the watermelons been in the ascendancy Rhiannon would still be in the Senate…. but she is not.
I think that the Greens, just like the Social Democratic ALP, are not playing the revolutionary game anymore, but the reformist game. If anything, this federal election has sunk any prospect of success for any group who still dreams of a “revolution”.
The only viable way forward is an Evolution…. and even that is going to be a very hard work!
ltep @ #169 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 4:02 pm
Just guessing – it may be this —
What is Zeal? – The Gospel Coalition
https://www.thegospelcoalition.org/blogs/erik-raymond/what-is-zeal/
Aug 26, 2014 – Zeal in Christianity is a burning desire to please God, to do His will, and to advance His glory in the world in every possible way. It is a desire, …
Hallelujah Brother.
I think the unions at least offer the Labor Party some connection to reality and the shared experiences of workers. I’m not sure they always get the balance right and certain unions in particular cause some concern (for instance the SDA).
The politics of coal and mining aren’t as simple as the Greens make it out to be for parties that are aiming to attract the votes of a broad section of the community. I recall guytaur repeatedly claiming that the ‘coal unions’ should tell their members they need to be happy to be out of a job. Australia’s transition to a clean energy future can’t be rushed, no matter how urgently it is needed.
Itep
I suspect attending a few services at his happy clapper church will reveal just what it means.
KayJay @ #226 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 3:59 pm
I hope Wyatt is given the opportunity to make a positive difference in IA, I really do.
Oh a religious reference. I should’ve known. A great way for our PM to show he is in touch with all Australians.
E. G. Theodoore @ #216 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
1 out of 227 means that parliament isn’t awash with “out of touchers”,eh?
What about the other 226? Even if the vast majority were “in touch”, parliament would still be awash with “out of touchers”.
You can go on bringing up single examples all you like, it still doesn’t prove my hypothesis wrong.
“Union hacks and union power is killing the ALP”….
ALP and ACTU are a strong team. The destruction of the ACTU is an old Coalition wet dream that will never become a reality. The only hope for the workers is to organise and get the ALP elected…
Simon, dysfunction on the Left really ensured the Right won this election. Dysfunction on the Left has meant that not one single important issue has been resolved on terms favourable to working people since the 1980s. Dysfunction on the Left will keep Labor out of power for years to come unless it can be resolved. The dysfunction starts with Green-anting.
Concurrently, the Right ascendancy has developed and is now an accepted part of politics. This is also partly attributable to dysfunction on the Left.
Hour by hour here at the bludgers’ retreat we see dysfunction in progress. You might be bored by it. I think it’s the main story. It will drive further reductions in real wages, in social incomes, in the erosion of the role of the State, and it will prevent this country from making a meaningful response to climate change.
But don’t let me stop you. Talk about whatever you like.
C@tmomma @ #48 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 8:28 am
Why would it embarrass him and in what way is the ALP shattered? There are a lot of ambitious assumptions in that headline. I will not be using their link to read such dross. Shorten lead the party to a near miss. So, the ALP should just toss a lifetime of experience aside?
The party is shattered emotionally by losing the election but the party is not shattered. It is the same ALP as the day before the election as the day after. Shorten et al rebuilt it and Labor is no longer six years from winning power.
The Lib-kin attack unions. Nothing has changed. The Lib-kin detest working people and their political and industrial instruments. They hope to destroy them.
Alpo @ #241 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 4:11 pm
Union members should hold their reps to account more for a start. I’d argue some reps couldn’t give a toss about their members.
How serious is the CFMMEU interested in a quick transition of their thermal coal mining members into more sustainable clean industry jobs ?
People need to keep in mind that a Coalition win at the next election will be pretty bad. It would likely lead to a Senate majority for Coalition + PHON, which is a pretty horrifying thought. Such a majority could entrench some pretty terrible stuff that would be hard to reverse for a long time after that. All on the left should be unified in their purpose of not returning the Coalition.
Oh dear https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rates-could-fall-as-low-as-0-5-percent-amid-warnings-of-gfc-like-slowdown-20190529-p51sdd.html
I give economic managers 1 year before economy goes tits up!
I know at my work sales haven’t been good and my mothers work in Queensland has slowed
According to The Australian today, the ABC and SBS could be forced to merge as streaming services wreck the broadcast licence revenue that the government uses to fund public broadcasting.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have highlighted the impact of streaming services on traditional media, stressing that revenue from radio and television has been declining ever since the rise of streaming services such as Stan and Netflix began getting audiences in Australian households.
The Australian says that fees, collected as a percentage of advertising revenue from radio and TV, that peaked in 2009 at $300 million, have been declining ever since, reflecting a decline in audiences.
Morgan Stanley point out that neither SBS of the ABC would necessarily be immune from the same audience decline, and may now come under increasing scrutiny as to whether their combined annual $1.3 billion taxpayer funding was required.
Zoid, you missed the bit where the analyst said that Morrison’s re-election may save the economy.
The essential starting point of dysfunction is Green-anting of Labor by the Lib-kin. They purport to be left-positive. But they campaign against Labor all the time and aim to keep Labor out of office. The split is institutional. It will ensure the Right win.