The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age – or the Herald/Age, to adopt what is evidently Nine Newspapers’ own preferred shorthand for its Sydney and Melbourne papers – have revealed their opinion polling will be put on ice for an indefinite period. They usually do that post-election at the best of times, but evidently things are more serious now, such that we shouldn’t anticipate a resumption of its Ipsos series (which the organisation was no doubt struggling to fund in any case).
This is a shame, because Ipsos pollster Jessica Elgood has been admirably forthright in addressing what went wrong – and, importantly, in identifying the need for pollsters to observe greater transparency, a quality that has been notably lacking from the polling scene in Australia. In particular, Elgood has called for the establishment of a national polling standards body along the lines of the British Polling Council, members of which are required to publish details of their survey and weighting methods. This was echoed in a column in the Financial Review by Labor pollster John Utting, who suggests such a body might be chaired by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University, who oversees the in-depth post-election Australian Election Study survey.
On that point, I may note that I had the following to say in Crikey early last year:
The very reason the British polling industry has felt compelled to observe higher standards of transparency is that it would invite ridicule if it sought to claim, as Galaxy did yesterday, that its “track record speaks for itself”. If ever the sorts of failures seen in Britain at the 2015 general election and 2016 Brexit referendum are replicated here, a day of reckoning may arrive that will shine light on the dark corners of Australian opinion polling.
Strange as it may seem though, not everyone is convinced that Australian polling really put on all that bad a show last weekend. Indeed, no less an authority than Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has just weighed in with the following:
Polls showed the conservative-led coalition trailing the Australian Labor Party approximately 51-49 in the two-party preferred vote. Instead, the conservatives won 51-49. That’s a relatively small miss: The conservatives trailed by 2 points in the polls, and instead they won by 2, making for a 4-point error. The miss was right in line with the average error from past Australian elections, which has averaged about 5 points. Given that track record, the conservatives had somewhere around a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
So the Australian media took this in stride, right? Of course not. Instead, the election was characterized as a “massive polling failure” and a “shock result”.
When journalists say stuff like that in an election after polls were so close, they’re telling on themselves. They’re revealing, like their American counterparts after 2016, that they aren’t particularly numerate and didn’t really understand what the polls said in the first place.
I’m not quite sure whether to take greater umbrage at Silver’s implication that Antony Green and Kevin Bonham “aren’t particularly numerate”, or that the are – huck, spit – “journalists”. The always prescient Dr Bonham managed a pre-emptive response:
While overseas observers like Nate Silver pour scorn on our little polling failure as a modest example of the genre and blast our media for failing to anticipate it, they do so apparently unfamiliar with just how good our national polling has been compared to polling overseas.
And therein lies the rub – we in Australia have been rather spoiled by the consistently strong performance of Newspoll’s pre-election polls especially, which have encouraged unrealistic expectations. On Saturday though, we saw the polls behaving no better, yet also no worse, than polling does generally.
Indeed, this would appear to be true even in the specifically Australian context, so long as we take a long view. Another stateside observer, Harry Enten, has somehow managed to compare Saturday’s performance with Australian polling going all the way back to 1943 (“I don’t know much about Australian politics”, Enten notes, “but I do know something about downloading spreadsheets of past poll data and calculating error rates”). Enten’s conclusion is that “the average error in the final week of polling between the top two parties in the first round” – which I take to mean the primary vote, applying the terminology of run-off voting of the non-instant variety – “has been about five points”.
But BoJo PM, yech. Almost as bad as ScoMo PM.
It appears the taste is for clowns as leaders these days.
C@tmomma @ #630 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 5:22 pm
To take a posting in ScoMo’s cabinet?
@Eric
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 6:46 pm
“The next poll should ask how people voted. That might help calibrate the poll machinery.”
Election day exit poll by Galaxy, 3008 sample size, said 52-48 to ALP!
Since the election was held, my mum reports it’s be relatively quiet at her work – enough to take a day off.
Bloody quiet, always fucking things up.
The trouble with the whole “brexit” thing, from what I can ascertain, is that, under the EU, the UK is constrained by what their parliament can do, from a bureaucracy based in Brusells that doesn’t necessary act in the best interest of the People of the UK.
So Therese May resigns effective June 7.
Trump meanwhile goes to another level of cray cray.
Interesting times continue unabated
’73 votes in Macquarie now! A real toss-up.’
Which indicates the postals are fairly firmly going Labor’s way – so they should win it.
David Marler @Qldaah · 22h22 hours ago
There will be no carbon emitted under a comedy I lead.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/how-australia-ended-up-taking-in-rwandans-accused-of-killing-tourists
@a r
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 6:54 pm
“You assume people will answer honestly.
My theory is that somewhere around 5-10% of Coalition voters (probably towards the younger end of the spectrum) are as dishonest to pollsters …”
Perhaps they feel they are being shouted down those who claim ‘higher’ moral values. You might not agree with them but agreeing that their concerns are genuinely held would be a better approach.
Una Persson @ #660 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 7:52 pm
Perhaps. Or perhaps they’re just assholes who like to troll. You certainly can’t argue that the alt-right (which is almost done usurping the normal right, at this point) isn’t chock full of that latter category. They revel in it. Openly.
I would lean towards the problem we’ve just seen with polling being that the pollsters are not able to reach a representative sample and have been unable to compensate adequately in weighting the responses they do get.
I don’t think there’s a systematic dishonesty in respondents – a systematic weariness or rejection of polling, sure, but not dishonesty per se. Some respondents will play games and make up any old random shit, no doubt, but I doubt this is the major problem.
Hmm Lars von Trier. We loved The Kingdom, from years ago for its extreme weirdness – then he seemed to get even weirder……
“Nicole Kidman, who starred in von Trier’s Dogville, said in an interview with ABC Radio National: “I think I tried to quit the film three times because he said, ‘I want to tie you up and whip you, and that’s not to be kind.’ I was, like, what do you mean? I’ve come all this way to rehearse with you, to work with you, and now you’re telling me you want to tie me up and whip me? But that’s Lars, and Lars takes his clothes off and stands there naked and you’re like, ‘Oh, put your clothes back on, Lars, please, let’s just shoot the film.’ But he’s very, very raw and he’s almost like a child in that he’ll say and do anything. And we would have to eat dinner every night and most of the time that would end with me in tears because Lars would sit next to me and drink peach schnapps and get drunk and get abusive and I’d leave and…anyway, then we’d go to work the next morning.”
There is something about coalition voters keeping their votes to themselves, one of the reasons why the last state election was a surprise was that cultural difference, ALP voters when angry will tell the world about it by marching up and down Bourke St while Liberal voters tend to just sit back and either stop spending or mutter it to themselves. I know this is kind of stereotypical but Labor voters tend to be more open to telling the government what they think.
So, given the ALP ran a shit campaign and it’s all just about communicating you’re message and having a great leader…why aren’t the Greens forming government?
@a r says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 7:58 pm
“Perhaps. Or perhaps they’re just assholes who like to troll. You certainly can’t argue that the alt-right (which is almost done usurping the normal right, at this point) isn’t chock full of that latter category. They revel in it. Openly.”
Not arguing or suggesting re the alt-right, but I do think many low information and/or outer suburban voters feel they are being sneered by highly moral, high information voters and commentators.
So who will take over from Theresa May?
The poor lady had an impossible task and she failed but I am not sure anyone can succeed. A no deal brexit is looking highly likely to me.
Jackol @ #649 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 7:08 pm
I think there never was really a majority support to Brexit among the UK population, but no one really thought Brexit would and protest voted and it won. I feel if there was a second referendum then remain would win reasonably comfortably, but the UK parliament will never agree to a second referendum. It will never agree to anything so the UK will end up leaving with no deal.
https://twitter.com/_JustinStevens_/status/1131855646104547329
I take my hat off to her that she’s lasted this long and seems to have genuinely tried to find a pathway through the madness.
Trump just keeps on winning. Last time he was in the U.K he said Boris Johnson would make a terrific PM which caused a complete meltdown of the leftwing fake news media and poor little remainer Theresa was also quite annoyed… now he’s going back just in time for his inauguration. You can’t make this stuff up.
Trump truly has the midas touch. The left beg and pray everyday for him to fail and the U.S economy to crash and him being caught in some Russian collusion delusion but he just keeps winning. He’s definately getting a second term, there is no doubt in mind at this point.
Social democracy and its tributaries, social justice and egalitarian values, are at risk in Australia now. The reactionaries have easily conquered Britain, where even the socialists have adopted the nationalist flag; and they have easily mastered the US too. The European democracies haven’t succumbed yet, but the whispers are in the breeze.
We are turning upon ourselves, upon our greatest achievements. It’s beyond bizarre. We’ve chosen self-harm.
@Blobbit
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 8:14 pm
“So, given the ALP ran a shit campaign”
The ALP ran a campaign informed by the polls. They were OK with trading a bigger majority (based on the polling) for a ‘clean’ campaign which would they would have had a solid mandate!
We now have the benefit of hindsight.
How many PBers saw red flags during the campaign, but, based on the polling (50 Newspolls in a row) suspended their disbelief!
My red flags inculded:
“sovereign risk” – for your average punter – WTF
“classic space invader” – it was too contrived
“cost of not acting acting on climate change”
The Libs “tax you to death”
Confessions says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 8:36 pm
Justin StevensVerified account@_JustinStevens_
1h1 hour ago
The final words of Theresa May’s resignation as U.K. Prime Minister: “I do so with no ill will. But with enormous & enduring gratitude, to have had the opportunity to serve the country I love.”
https://twitter.com/_JustinStevens_/status/1131855646104547329
I take my hat off to her that she’s lasted this long and seems to have genuinely tried to find a pathway through the madness.
At all times she’s placed the interests of her party above the interests of her country. She is a model of futility and irrelevance. She has indulged every fantasy.
Media Lens
@medialens
Media Lens Retweeted Andrew Feinstein
Corporate ‘values’? Chomsky:
‘Goebbels was in favour of free speech for views he liked. So was Stalin. If you’re really in favour of free speech, then you’re in favour of freedom of speech for precisely the views you despise. Otherwise, you’re not in favour of free speech.’
Fess
TMay was never a fan of Brexit. She was given a poisoned chalice. But what I find difficult to reconcile is why she wasnt transparent with respect to the interference of the referendum itself.
“Una Persson says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 8:40 pm
@Blobbit
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 8:14 pm
“So, given the ALP ran a shit campaign”
The ALP…”
Indeed. I guess what I was trying to explore was the idea that it’s all as simple as clearly explaining stuff.
Stock standard conservative / reactionary conduct. Liberals, Tories, Republicans, they all put party above country.
The great achievements of Federal Labor in the 20th century are being blue-anted and green-anted. Both the Lib-Libs and the Lib-kin and their various cousins despise the Australia on which we all rely. They would tear it down. This is the basic truth. We better get used to it. Clearly, things are gonna get worse before they get better.
The warning signs that Labor might struggle in this election date all the way back to July last year long before “retiree tax” hit the tv screens
Labor’s got a sub par swing for a by- election in Longman and virtually no swing to them at all in Braddon.
A incumbent government that is terminal would be copping a huge swing against them in by – elections nine months out from a federal election. Those two results showed the Liberals were not finished, far from it.
Also given Labor’s sub par showing in those two by – elections it is really no great surprise that they dropped both those seats on Saturday night.
I t is clear that Labor’s problems ran deeper than just a poor campaign,regional and outer suburban marginal seat voters always had reservations about them.
@Mexicanbeemer
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 8:05 pm
“There is something about coalition voters keeping their votes to themselves, one of the reasons why the last state election was a surprise was that cultural difference, ALP voters when angry will tell the world about it by marching up and down Bourke St while Liberal voters tend to just sit back and either stop spending or mutter it to themselves. I know this is kind of stereotypical but Labor voters tend to be more open to telling the government what they think.”
Change needs champions, foresight and and a general agreement on that problems that need to be solved.
Vic:
If you’re referring to the Russians, I always wondered why there wasn’t simply a second referendum once it became clear there was not going to be any traction on the first. The spectre of Russian interference could’ve made a second referendum plausible and defensible, except too much time had passed while May tried herding cats.
Fess
As briefly said, she put party before country. The UK is awash with Russian Oligarch money
Well, could someone please tell me how to deal with a Millennial child who, since the defeat of Labor at the election, the party he was holding out hope would put in place the sorts of policies that would see him able to afford a home and a family of his own and a wage rise above subsistence levels, has been so despondent that all he can see before him is the absolute futility of existence, but also is barely containing a simmering anger at the Baby Boomer generation for being so greedy?
I’ve just spent the last half hour trying to ‘talk him down from the ledge’, and it ain’t been easy.
Any suggestions gratefully accepted.
Una Person
The trouble with this kind of analysis is that both leaders had stuff ups. It’s only to be expected when someone is on public display for an extended period of time.
If you want to place the whole credit/blame on the leaders, the analysis then has to be along the lines of “Why were Shorten’s stuff ups more damaging than Morrison’s?” “Why did Shorten’s stuff ups not matter in certain kinds of electorates but did in others?”
I simply don’t think that there’s an answer there (part of one, perhaps – but then, “X party would have performed more strongly under a different leader” is too hypothetical a game to really be of much use).
Yes, Labor would have done better if more people liked Shorten. But the Liberals would have done better if more people liked Morrison.
Cat, revolution is whats needed 😛
you know it makes sense
Also for a GenX er who feels the same way.
C@t:
I’ve got a friend with a teenage activist son who is feeling similarly to your boy. Her strategy is to get him to channel his despondency to determination by mobilising his friends into action based on them being the future generation to have to clean up the mess their predecessors have made. I don’t know what it’s like over there, but I guess we’re lucky here in that the schools have been reasonably supportive of students protesting for climate action, and there’s already a groundswell of young people who are engaged.
I don’t know if that helps your son given he’s older, but may be worth thinking on.
@Blobbit
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 8:46 pm
“I guess what I was trying to explore was the idea that it’s all as simple as clearly explaining stuff.”
Alas, dear Bobbit, if it were easy we would have solved it long ago. Yet hope remains while the company is true.
C@t
My sister was dealing with her own son this week. Very concerning.
She told him the best thing to do is to get more actively involved to facilitate change.
And she arranged an urgent appointment for him to speak with psychologist. Apparently he is better about things. I will see him tomorrow at my sons wedding. Hopefully he has cheered up considerably.
So Tones has been spotted with a slab of Peronis and a bottle of vino.
I’m thinking the vino must be a traveller.
Burbon Whiskey also helps
C@
I had to deal with my son saying, “Well, that’s it. It’s sad, I really wanted to have kids…”
Over use has lessened the beneficial effects.
I might stop buying produce from Queensland. And if they dare to put their hand out for help with drought, flood or various natural disasters… f that.
Victoria:
Best wishes to your son on his special day tomorrow!
C@t:
Perhaps that’s the message for your son: life goes on. We take on the shit, knowing that there’s always the good to balance it out.
Simon Katich, Tennesey/Kentuckey Whiskey for mine, none of that god awful Qld crap
My nephew, who is generally very resilient and well-balanced, was also really distressed by the election result. It reminded me that for this generation of progressively minded people, this would have been the first experience of a profoundly disappointing election result, with all that it implies for the state of the country and its future. Although I felt pretty gutted on Saturday night, I was able to put it in the framework that I’d lived through equally disappointing election results in the past, and I’d got over it. I never thought I’d get over the dismissal. Gough urged us to maintain our rage, and by God, I did, and do!
Victoria @ #689 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 9:04 pm
My son doesn’t have time for those things, he has to work 6 days a week. So I say, well, at least you have a job. He was just tired, he only had 3-4 hours sleep last night because the guy that was supposed to relieve him didn’t turn up. It’s a shit job looking after severely disabled people but someone’s got to do it. They didn’t ask to be born that way after all. It’s just that he can’t see any light at the end of the tunnel and CAN see Morrison’s Mates ripping the country off blind and making off like bandits with their ill-gotten gains. He’s not stupid.
And the Waikato Chiefs beat the QLD Reds today. take that you hick Canucks.
Fess
Thanks. So strange. I dont know why but I’m quite nervous.
I shouldn’t be. They have already been living together for three years.
zoomster @ #692 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 9:08 pm
I got that too. He was saying that he didn’t want to have kids because he didn’t want to bring them into a world that was going to fry and dry up by 2050.