The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age – or the Herald/Age, to adopt what is evidently Nine Newspapers’ own preferred shorthand for its Sydney and Melbourne papers – have revealed their opinion polling will be put on ice for an indefinite period. They usually do that post-election at the best of times, but evidently things are more serious now, such that we shouldn’t anticipate a resumption of its Ipsos series (which the organisation was no doubt struggling to fund in any case).
This is a shame, because Ipsos pollster Jessica Elgood has been admirably forthright in addressing what went wrong – and, importantly, in identifying the need for pollsters to observe greater transparency, a quality that has been notably lacking from the polling scene in Australia. In particular, Elgood has called for the establishment of a national polling standards body along the lines of the British Polling Council, members of which are required to publish details of their survey and weighting methods. This was echoed in a column in the Financial Review by Labor pollster John Utting, who suggests such a body might be chaired by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University, who oversees the in-depth post-election Australian Election Study survey.
On that point, I may note that I had the following to say in Crikey early last year:
The very reason the British polling industry has felt compelled to observe higher standards of transparency is that it would invite ridicule if it sought to claim, as Galaxy did yesterday, that its “track record speaks for itself”. If ever the sorts of failures seen in Britain at the 2015 general election and 2016 Brexit referendum are replicated here, a day of reckoning may arrive that will shine light on the dark corners of Australian opinion polling.
Strange as it may seem though, not everyone is convinced that Australian polling really put on all that bad a show last weekend. Indeed, no less an authority than Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has just weighed in with the following:
Polls showed the conservative-led coalition trailing the Australian Labor Party approximately 51-49 in the two-party preferred vote. Instead, the conservatives won 51-49. That’s a relatively small miss: The conservatives trailed by 2 points in the polls, and instead they won by 2, making for a 4-point error. The miss was right in line with the average error from past Australian elections, which has averaged about 5 points. Given that track record, the conservatives had somewhere around a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
So the Australian media took this in stride, right? Of course not. Instead, the election was characterized as a “massive polling failure” and a “shock result”.
When journalists say stuff like that in an election after polls were so close, they’re telling on themselves. They’re revealing, like their American counterparts after 2016, that they aren’t particularly numerate and didn’t really understand what the polls said in the first place.
I’m not quite sure whether to take greater umbrage at Silver’s implication that Antony Green and Kevin Bonham “aren’t particularly numerate”, or that the are – huck, spit – “journalists”. The always prescient Dr Bonham managed a pre-emptive response:
While overseas observers like Nate Silver pour scorn on our little polling failure as a modest example of the genre and blast our media for failing to anticipate it, they do so apparently unfamiliar with just how good our national polling has been compared to polling overseas.
And therein lies the rub – we in Australia have been rather spoiled by the consistently strong performance of Newspoll’s pre-election polls especially, which have encouraged unrealistic expectations. On Saturday though, we saw the polls behaving no better, yet also no worse, than polling does generally.
Indeed, this would appear to be true even in the specifically Australian context, so long as we take a long view. Another stateside observer, Harry Enten, has somehow managed to compare Saturday’s performance with Australian polling going all the way back to 1943 (“I don’t know much about Australian politics”, Enten notes, “but I do know something about downloading spreadsheets of past poll data and calculating error rates”). Enten’s conclusion is that “the average error in the final week of polling between the top two parties in the first round” – which I take to mean the primary vote, applying the terminology of run-off voting of the non-instant variety – “has been about five points”.
Not Sure: “Ladbrokes might be willing to run a book on it.”
I’d think FDR would be at shorter odds.
nath @ #552 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 5:56 pm
Before or after your Viagra and your extended period with your mattress hole?
Lizzie that’s so sad. Bastards
There isn’t a shortage of land in Africa, you could easily set up a reserve to create a population for commercial Ivory, I think sometimes people make the mistake of watching documentaries and assuming Africa is one large desert which is totally false, Africa shares a lot in common with Australia both in terms of climate and large landsizes.
c@tmomma: “Yes you are. Kind of. Jenny Leong was the one who rose in the NSW parliament to speak against him but Mehreen Faruqi supported her.”
Thanks for that. I’m still not impressed that she supported Leong. The allegations against Buckingham were no more substantiated than the ones frequently made against Shorten. To my mind, we have a criminal justice system to deal with crimes, and internal processes within organisations – including rights of procedural fairness – to deal with misdemeanours that fall short of being criminal. If somebody does not fall foul of either the criminal justice system, or an internal process, then they should be considered innocent and allowed to get on with their lives.
The alternative to this is justice according to a sort of Stasi-style system based on unproven accusations.
I wonder if Peg woke up on Sunday and said ‘What have we (the Greens) done?’
Considering Rhino horns are basically the same as human fingernails then I’m surprised someone hasn’t come up with an artificial version.
The next poll should ask how people voted. That might help calibrate the poll machinery.
meher baba says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 6:37 pm
…”I’d think FDR would be at shorter odds”…
I know where my money would be.
Millennial @ #392 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 2:32 pm
Damn straight!
meher baba @ #605 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 6:43 pm
Sadly I have to admit that #MeToo has put the onus on the accused to prove themselves innocent, as opposed to the accuser to prove that they are wrong.
Eric @ #608 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 6:46 pm
You assume people will answer honestly.
My theory is that somewhere around 5-10% of Coalition voters (probably towards the younger end of the spectrum) are as dishonest to pollsters as the representatives they vote for are in general. It’s the sort of thing that would go over a treat with the 4chan set.
a r @ #610 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 6:49 pm
mundo says so! And you better believe him! Or you’ll get a stern blocking! 😆
TheDrum is discussing the how poorly the polls predicted the election result
With respect to Douglas & Milko’s comment #1 about people being swayed by directed messaging on Facebook & Twitter its worth looking at this Ted talk by Carole Cadwaldr abou Brexit votes in South Wales if you haven’t already
https://www.ted.com/talks/carole_cadwalladr_facebook_s_role_in_brexit_and_the_threat_to_democracy?language=en
The challenge Progressives have globally is that they need propose solutions to combat climate change without negatively affecting their living standards. Because people will balk at propositions that will result at reductions at the level of their living standards. Indeed people response posittvely when they believe their living standards will be improved by a policy proposal.
So please listen to people such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Yanis Yaroufakis, John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn. This because they have exactly the solutions to meet the challenges that face this world.
So I predict if Albo does take the advice of those people above, he will lose the 2022 election to Scomo. Even despite Ausrralia experiencing the worst economic crisis since the 1890s.
Bob Brown’s Botswani Elephant Convoy?
Might keep them occupied for a couple of electoral cycles.
Sadly, only The Guardian seems interested in pursuing this ‘story’. Nobody at the ABC wants to ends up with Emma Alberici’s career.
Au Purrr , The ResistaCat
@ricklevy67
Tristo, you do realize that nutty policies that are pushed by the likes of AOC are only going to ensure Trump will win again in 2020, don’t you ?
billie @ #614 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 6:55 pm
Agree billie, and thanks to you and and the original poster (was it Kate?)
On my feed, it was followed by this equally interesting one which I think I’ve already linked to once, but maybe not. Must take more fish oil.
https://www.ted.com/talks/yuval_noah_harari_why_fascism_is_so_tempting_and_how_your_data_could_power_it?language=en
C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 6:41 pm
nath @ #552 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 5:56 pm
Lars Von Trier
says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 5:55 pm
I feel adrian is more your Igor type personality looking for a dark master to administer discipline and rare mercies.
_________________________
He’s certainly a glutton for punishment coming yet again at me. I’ve already whipped him good and proper several times.
Before or after your Viagra and your extended period with your mattress hole?
___________________________________________________
What gets me off would disturb you on such a deep level, honey, you’d be best served never to think about it again.
Theresa May gone.
So in the final wash-up – it looks like ALP lost 1 seat. And Macquarie is still in the air.
Not the drubbing some here have been spruiking … though admittedly not the potential win many wanted/expected.
c@tmomma: “Sadly I have to admit that #MeToo has put the onus on the accused to prove themselves innocent, as opposed to the accuser to prove that they are wrong.”
I’m all for #MeToo as a way of encouraging people to come forward with their accounts of past abuse. But the next step has always got to be a thorough investigation through due process. Not trial by media or some sort of kangaroo court like the Senate hearing into the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh.
The American left has come up with this highly questionable concept that everyone must, in all circumstances, “believe the survivors” (ie, of abuse). To me, that’s the route to a Stasi-type system.
The survivors should be believed to the extent that their accusations are subject to due process. Due process can work: look at the conviction of Pell.
jenauthor @ #622 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 7:09 pm
Certainly not the overwhelming victory that large sections of the media like to portray it as.
Jenauthor, overall the status quo has hardly changed. Although, ironically, the LNP has lost a lot more talent, due to retirements, etc, than the ALP
She’ll step down on my birthday (June 7) too.
YBob @ #618 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 5:04 pm
This X 1000. Republicans are hoping the AOCs of the Democrats feature prominently in the campaign.
adrian: “BREAKING , How @PeterDutton_MP Ended Up Exchanging Genuine #Refugees From #Manus And #Nauru For Rhawandan Men Accused Of Raping And Murdering Tourists , @ScottMorrisonMP Faces Questions Over This Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/how-australia-ended-up-taking-in-rwandans-accused-of-killing-tourists … #auspol #LNPCrroks”
Consistent with my comments on #MeToo. These guys were extradited to the US where the case against them was dismissed by a court: on what would appear to be reasonable grounds that their confessions to their crimes were obtained by a form of torture.
So, as far as I am concerned, they are innocent. I realise that some people on the political left think it’s clever to play this case against Dutton’s previous statements about murderers, pedophiles and rapists coming to Australia: indeed, I recall some posters on here claiming that, if only it could get enough publicity, this case alone would be enough to bring about the demise of the Morrison Government.
But to me it isn’t clever, it just looks like a piece of very cheap point scoring that would be unlikely to impress too many people. And indeed it hasn’t. Yawn.
YBob – yes indeed. The senate might be the telling part.
Technically – the advantage in the lower house came from fewer on the cross bench. It depends on the upper house cross bench now. It might very well be a duplicate of the previous parliament where the Libs ended up impotent. Here’s hoping, anyway.
Last parliament Labor drove the agenda and while Abbott is gawn, the rest of the knuckle-draggers are still there, ready to agitate. Plus Joyce will likely try to assert himself again. Many knuckle-draggers come from Qld and they will now be emboldened, even if Morrison begins with increased power within the party. Those agitators might let him have his way initially (like they did the Mal … remember him?) but that won’t last long with all the vested interests flexing their muscles (Palmer? Gina?)
BREAKING: Theresa May has resigned.
Didn’t the ALP lose five seats and only win Gilmore with Macquarie?
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 6:43 pm
There isn’t a shortage of land in Africa, you could easily set up a reserve to create a population for commercial Ivory, I think sometimes people make the mistake of watching documentaries and assuming Africa is one large desert which is totally false, Africa shares a lot in common with Australia both in terms of climate and large landsizes.’
Uh huh. Using the same logic, why don’t we put in a commercial ivory farm in the Simpson Desert?
Africa is not a single unit. It consists of numerous states.
Botswana is three quarters outright desert.
It’s nice to be wanted (Speers). It’s also nice that Murdoch has been outmanoeuvered.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has announced she will resign on June 7, saying “it’s a matter of deep regret” that she failed to negotiate a Brexit deal.
Mrs May made the announcement outside 10 Downing Street after meeting with Conservative Party powerbrokers to work out a timetable for her departure.
Jenauthor, the senate will provide massive entertainment value this term
‘C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 7:22 pm
BREAKING: Theresa May has resigned.’
Not to worry. The Greens will save the UK.
Lots of parallels between May & Turnbull – both basically impotent for a long time before their demise.
Reading about the rise of apartheid. One of its authors ‘believed his own rise to prominence was..a matter of divine inspiration…he allowed nothing to deflect him from his purpose. “I do not have the nagging doubt of ever wondering whether perhaps I am wrong,” he said.”
So May Resigns.
We have idiot Treasurer doesn’t understand shit all.
Peter van Onselen
Verified account @vanOnselenP
31m31 minutes ago
The Treasurer runs around saying the banks just need to lend more. Someone needs to let him know about the multitude of government induced lending restrictions…
And Australia still fucked.
shellbell
Gained two at least in Victoria due to redistributions and I think an extra in the ACT as well.
@Boerwar
Nah, the right wing parties of UK will save Tories to save the day.
73 votes in Macquarie now! A real toss-up
Shellbell the Coalition lost three seats that were notionally Labor following re-distributions.
Belatedly, I offer this – if it has been mentioned before, then no-one has been taking notice.
“Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose elections.”
Goodness knows the LNP had done enough to lose- it simply was a message that got no traction!
‘Tristo says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 7:00 pm
The challenge Progressives have globally is that they need propose solutions to combat climate change without negatively affecting their living standards.’
In Australia the challenge is that the so-called Progressives in the Greens spend most of their time fighting against Labor. The Greens attack Labor four times as much as they attack the Coalition.
With the counting yet to be completed, Bandt has ALREADY threatened Labor with a ‘brutal’ battle.
Did he threaten Joyce who wants to build a dozen new dams?
No.
Did he threaten Taylor who wants to use tax funds to subsidize coal burning and coal mining?
No.
Did he threaten Frydenberg for not raising Newstart?
No.
Did he threaten Dutton for getting rid of the Medevac Law?
No.
The bastard Bandt threatened Labor.
I’m just reading this feature article and it makes me feel ill:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-sort-of-prime-minister-does-scott-morrison-want-to-be-20190522-p51pwr.html
‘Zoidlord says:
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 7:28 pm
@Boerwar
Nah, the right wing parties of UK will save Tories to save the day.’
May and Corbyn have shown all the leadership qualities we expect from the Australian Greens: much ado about exactly nothing: able to stop or delay and unable to achieve.
Both have been punished in the polls.
In Britain the vacuum will probably be filled by some raving right Boris clone, possibly even Boris himself, who will take the UK by way of a hard crash out of the EU.
In Australia the Greens have been enabling the right wingers in the Coalition.
After 30 long years 90% of all Australians refuse to vote for the Greens.
phylactella @ #644 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 7:30 pm
The problem with that theory is that the Coalition lied their way back into government and there doesn’t seem to be a lot you can do about that.
I think the Brits are nuts to Brexit, but it is what it is. If there was a convincing public movement to walk it back then a 2nd ref/remain could work, but remain doesn’t at all seem to have convincing majority support among the public.
If BoJo gets the gig I would think that a crash out is definitely likely, and at this point in time, maybe it’s for the best. Pick up the pieces and move on from there. Whatever happens Britain and the EU can’t let this drag on much longer.
But BoJo PM, yech. Almost as bad as ScoMo PM.
Has Frydenberg told the banks that they should accept a bunch of Lotto tickets as collateral for a loan?