The latest – or some of it at least:
• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.
• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.
• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.
• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.
jeffemu @ #195 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 11:20 am
Take it easy jeffemu. I thought of you when I thought that the #LiarfromtheShire would be using your beloved Sharkies as props for another 3 years. 🙁
Tristo,
OK hows this:
Morrison Government = Turnbull government without the talent, charisma and social conscience.
(such that there was one LOL!)
Wonder what losing, JBish, Pyne, Higgins et al will make. Probably just more right wing craziness really and general corruption and pork for pet projects and mates.
Interesting result really. Probably a real historical inflection point for Australian politics. It may actually hasten the splintering of the Libs into a metro party (combined with the wealthier green voter types) and a rural and regional party (combined with One nation voter types). This is the future the ALP has to position itself in. It could go the way of most of the other 20th Century centre left parties around the world if it abandons its historical base and tries to appeal to the socially progressive, economically conservative inner city voters at the expense of those on the margins.
FTFY.
Radguy @ #193 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 11:20 am
And that is an entirely good thing these days it seems from bitter experience. Very little crap the Coalition can dig up and throw back at him.
Just Quietly @ #200 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 11:27 am
It needs to do both. Gather up the disaffected who have been drifting to The Greens but also campaign long and hard for the Working Poor.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 10:27 am
I actually think Catherine King would be Labor’s best choice as LOTO. She doesn’t suffer Liberal fools gladly but does it with a smile after taking deadly aim at them. She’s also from a Provincial seat. Knows how to mix it with all types of Aussies.
—-
I wrote to her last year to suggest that Labor look into and run with an all bulk-billed Medicare along the Canadian model.
Never got any acknowledgement or reply. Also wrote to Shorten. Same thing.
While attacking the Coalition’s position on Medicare and proposing full bulk-billing for cancer patients, the Party has not shown much intestinal fortitude in taking on such a no-brainer of policy.
I imagine that the cancer initiative was welcomed by those affected, but it might have annoyed people with other conditions. A statement that Labor would work towards a full bulk-billed system for medical and hospital treatment, including specialists would have had an enormous effect during the campaign.
Labor does not show much interest in going back to the Whitlam model. There seems to be an irrational sensitivity towards the heavily subsidized and failing private health insurance industry.
“Goll says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:22 am
Labor needs to use the available hammers more effectively.
They didn’t at the last election just past.”
That’s just stating the obvious. They lost because they didn’t do the things they needed to win. What should they have done?
Seems there are three broad options
1. Go further progressive, lots of policies, get the inner city vote
2. Drop most talk of the environment and bleed some votes to the Green’s. Just talk jobs all the time
3. Have absolutely no policies at all, find a dear leader, run on how much the LNP are costing voters
My favourite is mainly 3, with a bit of 2
I can’t believe some of you want to put up as a candidate for PM someone who doesn’t appear to have had a real job outside government and whose studies paint him to be a careerist in the most obvious way.
Which place is this background supposed to appeal to? It doesn’t look like a place that produced Saturday’s result.
@Just Quietly
I explained what this increased amount of right-wing craziness will entail. Scomo can get away with doing this. Because of the influence of the right-wing crazies is more now than it was before the election. The ‘moderates on the other hand I argue are in a much more weaker position now.
So the ABC has to find cuts, where to start.
Macca on Sunday Morning.
Covering any Rugby League Game involving Cronulla or Manly.
I want to see $84Million bucks worth people…
“It needs to do both. Gather up the disaffected who have been drifting to The Greens but also campaign long and hard for the Working Poor.”
That might be a circle that can’t be squared. Maybe better to treat the Greens like the LNP treat ON and Palmer.
Were not going to overly play to your base, but we won’t spend all our time bagging you.
It would be helpful to the broader left if the Green’s also played along of course. Anyone remember how often ON had a go at the LNP?
With the Liberal retirements it does seem they’ve become more socially conservative.
Bishop’s replacement, the Higgins and Chisholm candidates certainly are not sure about others.
@Radguy
Honestly I believe Labor is going to be eaten alive by the Greens, while gaining little votes from those who voted for the Coalition, if they go down a more ‘centrist’ path.
Nostradamus at Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 10:22 am:
“Shame on you!”
Well you got that part right.
If you had the courage of your convictions you would post comments like that under your own name. But you are a coward.
C@tmomma @ #187 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 9:17 am
You could be right, however I’m not convinced that that line has quite as much cut-through as you believe. Sure the Murdoch/Stokes/Costello/IPABC media cartel will hammer it day and night, but how that’s actually perceived as correct by those who are on minimum wage is another matter. Especially when they realise that the less than $5 a week will never be seen in their pay-packets and is only a rebate to them when they do their tax returns at the end of the financial year.
The “top end of town” are the only ones who are actually getting tax cuts. Everyone else is getting a rebate. And let’s not forget that for some people on minimum wage, due to a whole range of other circumstances, could see that $255 a year, eroded if not eradicated altogether. There will be a substantial number of minimum wagers that get next to, if not absolutely bugger all of that rebate back.
That’s a quote from a famous Republican POTUS who would now be seen as being a bleeding heart lefty.
zoomster
says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:24 am
nath
Given how indignant Rudd was when he was accused about crying by Latham, it’s a bit hypocritical of him to portray others as sooks.
__________________________
Yes I would agree. But Albo doesn’t cry over potential career setbacks.
Cat – “the disaffected who have been drifting to The Greens”
Who are these people? I see Greens voters as either young, politically engaged ideological purists, demanding a government that reflects their values or older, monied, socially and environmentally conscious types, who really want a ‘better’ environment but aren’t gonna change their lifestyles for it.
There is a radical fringe to the greens (i.e. off-grid types – I have time for these greens who at least live their values) but I would guess they are a small minority. The majority are either the privileged classes or the children of the privileged classes.
I say let them drift, or at least don’t follow them. To win the mainstream you will need, compromise, negotiation and a platform with broad appeal, ideological purity is not gonna work. This approach aint gonna work for the greens voters.
Radguy
I assume you’re talking about Albanese.
QLD Labor is going to ram through Adani approvals now, it sounds like. 🙄
So the ABC has to find cuts, where to start.
Macca on Sunday Morning.
Covering any Rugby League Game involving Cronulla or Manly.
I want to see $84Million bucks worth people
____
Religious programming
People picking leadership teams are forgetting one important thing. Labor not only have to win, but they have to pass legislation when they do.
The senate is key to that. If labor win in 2022, then it is almost certain that the only paths labor have for a majority in the senate are to get the greens or the liberals on side. There will barely be any others – not enough to get labor to the magic number even if they could corral one nation. The liberals would revert to tony abbot style opposition so the greens are the only option.
With that in mind, there is one name that becomes the obvious choice due to their proven ability to work constructively with the Greens. I suspect they would be a better choice for deputy, rather than leader. The leader should be someone who can win outer suburbs votes.
And it will be a shame, of course, as a great labor MP will have to step aside for the greater good.
The only question then becomes, who becomes chief Minister of the ACT once Andrew Barr becomes deputy?
nath
1. Tears in a man are not something to be ashamed of.
2. We don’t know that. We just know that no one has reported that he has.
The Age of the Centrist is over.
The Age of the Progressive has begun.
The next non-LNP Government will be elected on a platform that includes a federally funded, community administered Job Guarantee, free health care (including dental care), and big investments in green energy, transportation, and telecommunications infrastructure.
Blobbit says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:36 am
Amen brother…
@a r
The Queensland government must fear Clive Palmer is going to spend a lot of money to defeat them at the next state election, if they don’t approve his projects. If that happens for Clive Palmer that is $60 million well spent.
Have Bludgers already discussed the prospect of resignations by Labor frontbenchers in the aftermath of the election, including, reportedly, Dodson, Wong and Carr?
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-labor-resignations-to-come-as-three-years-in-the-wilderness-beckons-ng-b881204104z
Does anyone know who will be eligible to vote in the ALP members’ ballot?
Does one have to have been a member for “x” number of months in order to get a vote?
*AskingForAFriend
Tristo @10.57
There is no push for any further cuts to anyone’s penalty rates. The excessive Sunday/Public Holiday rates in the Retail and Food Service Industries were the issue and they have been fixed. They still get penalty rates for working on Weekends and Public Holidays. For a small cafe owner you were up against McDonalds, KFC etc who the Unions had bargained away the excessive penalty rates while the small operator was required to pay 200%.
Show me the evidence of anyone either formally or informally wanting to reduce any other penalty rates?
Everyone should do what I did and ring Jim Chalmers’ office, urging him to stand.
Then ring your local Federal MP, Senators etc and ask them to support Chalmers.
Let’s Get Jim the Job. 😉
Goll @ #180 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 11:11 am
Yes. Because while the ability to vote correlates very strongly to being above a certain age (seems to drop right off once you get below 18 for some reason), it doesn’t correlate at all to how intelligent a person is.
It’s guaranteed that at least some voters are stupid. Depending upon where on wants to place the threshold of stupidity, nearly 50% of voters might be classed as stupid.
“a r says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:43 am
QLD Labor is going to ram through Adani approvals now, it sounds like”
What else can they do? If the LNP win, that was always going to be the outcome.
So, what of the Greens platform is going to be fulfilled? Serious question. At the moment there seems to be an opinion that they did well, because their vote went up a bit.
Apart from that though, they don’t seem to be able to fulfill any of their overall policy aims. Their strategy seemed to be to put pressure on the ALP once it won government. They don’t seem to have planned for what to do if that didn’t occur.
@Nicholas
I agree totally, wonder why I think Scomo could be re-elected in 2022, because given a choice between the real Liberal Party and ‘Liberal-Lite’, voters will choose the former or vote for a party which is not either.
However apart from the left-wingers in the NSW Greens such prehaps Mehreen Farqui and former senator Scott Ludlam, the Greens I doubt can take the opportunity to become a major party, by adopting an agenda similar to what the Labour Party in Britain has developed under Jeremy Corbyn, that is also committed to achieving environmental sustainability.
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:45 am
“The Age of the Centrist is over.
The Age of the Progressive has begun.
The next non-LNP Government will be elected on a platform that includes a federally funded, community administered Job Guarantee, free health care (including dental care), and big investments in green energy, transportation, and telecommunications infrastructure.”
Good thinking Nicholas. I cannot imagine how anyone could run a scare campaign against that. The likes of Barnaby and Clive will just give up I am sure.
When you are up in Capricornia or Flynn explaining these policies to the people who will actually be voting, can you get some footage.
“The Age of the Progressive has begun.
The next non-LNP Government will be elected ….”
Based on all that, and the results this time around, the next non-LNP government won’t be elected. Ever.
I don’t think Wong will resign from the Senate, but there’s a chance she could move to the backbench, like John Faulkner did. The difficulty is that the cupboard is very bare in terms of replacement. A shame that Dodson may never be a minister in a Labor Government.
@Bucephalus
The Business council would like to see wages reduced further, so the government might well cut other penalty rates.
Michael A says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:10 am
Thanks BK, your harvesting for us all this morning is as enlightening as ever.
Simon Letch’s cartoon is the highlight for me today. Morrison’s re-election pitch rested solely on a claim to “keep the nation’s economy strong and its coffers in the black”. Strong economic headwinds imperil both. If it goes belly up, Morrison & his Liberals will have nowhere to hide – as was the case with Fraser & Howard in 1980-83.
Voters do not think these kind of statements mean anything. They are very deeply discounted by a sceptical and untrusting electorate. If the Commonwealth budget ends up in surplus at the same time as the economy is growing and household finances are also improving, voters will be justified in thinking a miracle has actually occurred.
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:45 am
Fuck! That’s bleak.
So are we talking grandchildren or great grandchildren?
“Labour Party in Britain has developed under Jeremy Corbyn,”
I know Corbyn plays well with the activist base, but come back when he wins an election.
BK the Sunday night religious show got the axe about 2 years ago.
Would anybody miss Saturday Night Country?
Itep, that seems about right if you look at her comments today:
‘I went into parliament and I chose to stand for the Senate because I want to be a senator and, if you’d asked years ago, I would have said in my ideal world I’d be a Senate leader and cabinet minister. I’ve had the first of those and I’d like to be a cabinet minister again but that wasn’t to be on Saturday. So my view is I’m best suited to the Senate. I love the Senate and I think it’s a very important chamber in our democracy and I’ll continue to work there for the Australian people and for the Labor party.’
Maybe just someone’s wishful thinking…
Salk @ Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 10:04 am
The political situation in the UK is unique. The people were promised a vote and told it would be followed and Parliament and the PM are actively working to deny the outcome of that vote.
If the UK left without a deal then all the Brexit and anti-Brexit parties would disappear.
Hopefully that is what will happen as soon as Boris is PM.
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:45 am
The Age of the Centrist is over.
The Age of the Progressive has begun.
The next non-LNP Government will be elected on a platform that includes a federally funded, community administered Job Guarantee, free health care (including dental care), and big investments in green energy, transportation, and telecommunications infrastructure.
One thing is certain. If these kind of measures are described as ‘progressive’ they will never be adopted by the electorate, which mostly sees itself as ‘conservative’, whether it is the case or not.
The terminology we’ve been using is as antiquated as the thinking we have been using.
If you really want to further alienate voters, start talking to them about neo-liberalism.
Blobbit @ #231 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 11:50 am
They can do some actual leadership instead of running scared.
Take the steps to kickstart a renewables industry in the region(s) where people are holding out for Adani. Make it clear that Adani’s not on and that coal, generally, will be as dead tomorrow as asbestos is today. Give (substantial) assistance to anyone that wants it to learn some new skills and find something new to do in the renewables sector.
Of course with the QLD election due in a year and a bit there’s not time for getting all of that done. But get it started and then sell the vision instead of doing a craven “okay, here’s your coal mine, please don’t hate us!”.
If Carr did resign (after working to see his preferred candidate for leader elected, no doubt) who would the likely candidates be to replace him?
Would Ryan Batchelor get a look in? He’s pretty much the only Left person who’s recently contested preselection whose name I’ve remembered.
Brilliant totally incoherent statement from Guardian blog.. the one prior to this is even better..
Adani was & is a total ballsup by Labor… regardless what Annastacia says she won’t win next election..
The message is simple , coal production is demand driven, there isn’t enough demand to warrant Adani’s existence that’s why there wasn’t any independent finance. Indian vertical integration aside Adani would have died a natural death…
All Labor need to say was let the spruikers put their money where their mouth is. Maybe the CFMEU could have under righted it.
11:44
Annastacia Palaszczuk:
I am expecting a definite time frame by Friday. Let me say this – there are other projects in this state that have gone through processes and have approvals. We announced, I think it was last week, the Olive Downs.
A few weeks before that, Winchester South. And they were just telling me that Winchester South plans to use this terminal that we’re standing on to actually export its coal. These companies get on with the job and they do it. But I sense the frustration of the community.
I’m frustrated. I think everyone’s had a gutful of this, frankly.
And, this is the process. I want all parties to sit down and work on.”
@Blobbit
I meant the political platform that the Labour Party has developed, not Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. I believe the next British Labour Party will be Corbynite in ideology, however Jeremy Corbyn might not be the leader.
Even with the shambles which is Brexit, Theresa May has not gone to a General Election yet or intends to, to get a mandate for passing a Brexit Deal. This is because the Conservative Party fear they would be defeated by Labour in a General Election. That gives you an idea how popular the platform the Labour Party has developed is.
Maybe an LNP government in Qld will set the scene for a national Labor win 2022
“But get it started and then sell the vision instead of doing a craven “okay, here’s your coal mine, please don’t hate us!”.”
It’d be an interesting experiment. Unfortunately I think coal is only going to die when people so buying it, as far as Australia goes.
The loss on the weekend doesn’t help. If the Qld ALP tried that at this stage, they’re just going to be painted as anti-worker.
Best thing they can do is not stand in the way of the mine, and start doing all that stuff. Don’t say it’s because coal is dead, just do it in terms of new, additional jobs.
@Tristo Whoever ALP picks, if the focus is on wealth creation, you can be sure of some riveting discussion, where those who haven’t had experience with bringing a product to market are left to spectate. There is no shortage on the left of people with that experience, and plenty on the right who would offer honest perspectives.
To be clear, I’m talking about wealth *creation* not upwards distribution.
I don’t think I’m hallucinating in seeing many of the right positively yearning for decent leadership on the left. A tweet from Albrechtson showed as much as far as I could interpret.
They aren’t all happy campers on the right. Some of them I’d say are embarrassed about their leadership. I think these ones hate the culture wars even more than the left. I don’t think these right wingers have any interest in assisting the nutty social conservative causes unless they are forced to. If their big money can’t sway the policies, then they have nowhere to go.
So I think they have an interest in participating constructively in such discussion.