Of swings and misses

The Coalition’s parliamentary majority looks secure, as the polling industry starts facing up to what went wrong.

The latest – or some of it at least:

• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.

• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.

• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.

• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,724 comments on “Of swings and misses”

  1. Tristo,

    Saw your comment on the last thread about Doug Cameron being of the true left, and I could not agree more.

    I was lucky enough to have my mother live next door to Doug for a long time, and I got to know the man a bit. He is lovely, and very sensible and genuine. I remember when he first became a senator, he mentioned the “frontal lobotomy ” you needed to have once you be came an MP or a Senator”, referring to the fact that a “gotcha” moment with the press could cruel your party’s chances of winning the next election.

    I also agree with his comment on twitter that Labor should not take the message of this election result to mean that they need to move further to the right. I will provide some supporting evidence for this supposition in my next post.

    note bene: This does not mean that I think that if the ALP had just gone further left they would have won. They would not have. The Greens have strong support among about 10% of the population. If people really wanted a more left agenda, they would have voted 1 Green in droves in the lower house. They did not.

  2. So, from a great article by Nick Evershed for the Guardian, an analysis of who voted for the coalition. It supports Doug Cameron’s view that Labor does not need to veer right.

    It also suggests to me that he ALP needs to do a very careful analysis of why they lost the election just gone, before making up their mind on what to take to the next election.

    From the Article:

    Electorates that swung harder to the Liberal and National parties are more likely to have higher unemployment, lower income, lower levels of education and fewer migrants, according to a Guardian Australia analysis.

    Conversely, electorates that swung to Labor were more likely to have higher levels of education, more young people, more people in work or study, and more people over the age of 80.

    And, perhaps surprisingly, electorates with larger numbers of people receiving franking credit refunds or making use of negative gearing on properties were less likely to swing to the Coalition.
    ….
    It’s important to emphasise what this type of analysis doesn’t tell us. Despite the correlations, this analysis doesn’t show that recent migrants voted for Labor, or people on lower incomes voted for the Coalition. It just shows which aspects of an electorate were associated with a swing either way.

    Excluded from this analysis are seats that didn’t have a contest primarily between Labor and Coalition candidates, as it skews the two-party preferred measure given by the AEC.
    …….
    [Some Key points]

    … richer electorates were more likely to swing to Labor, and poorer electorates were more likely to swing to the Coalition.
    …as the rate of people receiving franking credits goes up, and the rate of people negatively gearing properties goes up, so does the swing towards Labor.
    … The percentage of people who had completed year 12 in an electorate was correlated with a swing towards Labor.
    … electorates with higher unemployment or participation in education were more likely to swing to the Coalition
    … seats with more mines do tend to have a higher swing [to the Coalition]

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2019/may/22/the-eight-charts-that-help-explain-why-the-coalition-won-the-2019-australian-election

  3. Tristo,

    It is an interesting article to read.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/21/its-the-grassroots-stupid-what-zali-steggalls-campaign-can-teach-labor-about-winning

    I absolutely agree that Labor needs to bring fresh blood into it ranks, and that simply rewarding factional loyalty will kill the party. As Stalin said “Gratitude is a dog’s disease”.

    However, there are more than a few of us in the party working hard for this. I would love to see Brian Owler in either the senate or a safe Labor seat when the next opportunity arises.

  4. Adding to the “Fake AEC instructions” in Chisholm, that Oliver Yates is now fighting int he courts, Channel 7 (of all people!) has found similar shenanigans in the seat of Dickson:

    7NEWS caught volunteers red-handed, giving out fraudulent how-to-vote cards in the knife-edge seat of Dickson.

    The cards said “vote for Queensland” and directed Greens supporters to put incumbent MP and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton at number 2, and the Animal Justice Party had Dutton at number 3. Both were incorrect, the actual how-to-vote cards had Dutton at 5 and 6, respectively.

    https://7news.com.au/politics/federal-politics/federal-election-2019-fraudulent-how-to-vote-cards-told-greens-voters-to-preference-peter-dutton-c-119724?fbclid=IwAR0on5-elaXXwsrs5DHBDNsWvpRXi023S-KfhQ5CHlO0sCPNeZ9jUn6AHvU

  5. Littlefinger not going anywhere with reports he is up to his neck in “stop albo” factional shenanigans.

    Bowen has an amazing ability in his career – to fail upwards.

    Firstly – Fuel Watch, Grocery Watch (how long did those websites last?)
    Secondly – immigration under Gillard (that ended well)
    Thirdly – Treasury under Shorten ( franking credits lost the unloesable election)

    That of course means he is eminently qualified to lead Labor to the 2022 election and lose. Which would suit Littlefingers purposes for a revival in 2025.

    Oh the humanity!

  6. Hi to all, dropping a comment like it or not.

    So you need the bogan vote, or to at least split it.

    First up, legalise weed. Note the sky hasn’t fallen in in the US where it’s happened. That should convince those who might be hesitant. There are a lot of weed smokers and they are or mix with this demographic (bogans). They would campaign for this freely and from a view of challenging the right wing authoritarians as to why they should pay for the reactionaries whims, noting the price in tax and the price of such an unproductive aspect of society and the real losses we incur by obstructing weed smokers from full participation in society through many means including refusing them jobs they may do better than others. Having these conversations out might wreck a few barbecues, but at least it will show how unpleasant the authoritarian urges of the right are.

    If you’re against this, then you have it in for people because that’s how it plays out. This is obviously the right thing to do and the LNP will oppose it. I don’t have the energy to fight others here about this, but any opposition to this will stem from either a position of cultural supremacism or some affiliation with the alcohol lobby, perhaps ties to policing or the criminal justice system. I shouldn’t need to point out here how much of a rort the criminalisation of natural and sociable human behaviours is.

    Next…

    I think we should phase out coal ASAP. There doesn’t need to be any inter-personal angst about this.

    But…

    Renewable jobs by themselves are not a replacement for export jobs. The jobs of the coal miners are few, but both parties in the regions note the volume of money generated by the coal industry because it provides an illusory notion of individuals in these regions contributing to the nations wealth.

    The jobs one would aspire to provide as a replacement don’t need to necessarily be export jobs, but somewhere in the system, export jobs need to be created to substitute for the loss of coal revenue, otherwise, our currency weakens.

    I know many people get excited about MMT (modern monetary theory) and it does make a lot of sense, but no amount of MMT application will by itself create products for export let alone with a value comparable to coal. Figures I’ve heard around are about $1000 per person worth of export revenue. MMT only defines our own pie. It can help, but if our pie is shit, no one will buy it.

    I said way back in 2010 that I was OK with the CPRS being dumped. That was because the right could play it up as a form of economic repression. This was long before I read anything about the phrase Agenda 21. This is exactly the purpose of the subversive narrative relating to A21 has been created for. The conspiratorial nature of it is bunkum obviously, but with a suite of other conspiratorial nonsense surrounding it, altogether there are popular false narratives being promulgated by the right to convince turkeys to vote for christmas.

    At the same time, there are malign forces operating within the ALP that feed into these conspiracy theories of the right. To name some of the notable ones:

    Why would Plibersek be retweeting a Neera Tandern tweet having a go at Wikileaks supporters? Does she know her think tank is sponsored by the big corporations most here want out of politics?

    Why are the ALP feeding in to Trumps agenda in Venezuela? Why do they want to get in the way with ordinary people trading with each other across these and other borders Americans want to restrict? Funny how it seems like this kind of free market the Gringos are opposed to.

    As Dan Gulberry notes, what happened with the TPP capitulations?

    What about the capitulations on the AAbill? And all the other police state shit that the ALP supported all ready to be used against us by the Tories?

    The case of Colleary and Witness K regarding East Timor?

    Why are we selling war machines to Saudi Arabia with no opposition from the ALP? (Get the bogans talking about KSA, they all have an opinion, all pretty much the same opinion)

    I don’t know how far Keating would like us to go, but his comments regarding the security agencies were pretty encouraging. They are political organisations, they have a vested interest in maintaining authoritarianism through playing the fear card to obtain more powers and to oppose any accountability for themselves. I’d like to see their “six ways from Sunday ways getting back at you” stared down unflinchingly.

    I don’t know all who are here who are keen to maintain secret agencies that have always sought to disrupt progressive politics, but I know it’s definitely some of you. Maybe it’s just to match the LNP. Please snap out of it if that’s you.

    Anyway, I’ll still vote left of the ALP because that’s where *I* think we should be. I’m just offering my pov regarding how to bring others over.

    I’m in La Trobe and the turkeys here definitely voted for christmas. You’ve gotta get them with policies – the right will be going for them with big data. Even the pollsters might have played their final hand because better tools are available that don’t need to be shared.

    This really is like Luke in Star Wars learning the light sabre, having to succeed blindfolded.

    Finally, good to see some honour and respect coming around with support for Albo. The old approach has run its course largely unfettered and it didn’t work. I’m looking forward to seeing a new approach, hopefully far more magnanimous than the last.

    https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/shocking-admission-by-fbi-veteran-shows-why-the-fbi-shouldnt-exist-aa3508483acb

  7. Radguy

    First up, legalise weed. Note the sky hasn’t fallen in in the US where it’s happened. That should convince those who might be hesitant. There are a lot of weed smokers and they are or mix with this demographic (bogans). They would campaign for this freely and from a view of challenging the right wing authoritarians as to why they should pay for the reactionaries whims, noting the price in tax and the price of such an unproductive aspect of society and the real losses we incur by obstructing weed smokers from full participation in society through many means including refusing them jobs they may do better than others. Having these conversations out might wreck a few barbecues, but at least it will show how unpleasant the authoritarian urges of the right are.

    Could not agree more. Legalise it! If it is a problem for som e people, this is a health problem, not as criminal problem.

    Also, “bogans” may be proud and out weed smokers, but my experience of a fairly wealthy and educated demographic suggests that many people indulge. There are al lot of jokes about which bottle in the herbs and spices rack you keep your weed in.

    Prohibition is a demonstrable failure. Portugal and Colorado (among others) have led the way with legalisation, which equals half minimisation.

    As usual, I gave my second preference in the senate to The Australian Hemp Party.

  8. I remember the 1990 election commentary from Andrew Denton for the ABC:

    ” I did an exit poll on my housemates today, and I can guarantee that The Australian Marijuana party is going to romp home.”

  9. From the DT, this regarding the Coalition’s final push. I think they even called our landline, per another family member who took the call. Perhaps Morrison was just reaching the converted, but who knows. My Mum is a NC subscriber (in her 80s, votes ALP/Green, but likes to know what the enemy is up to so it falls to me to subscribe for her online, which just kills me), so for those behind the paywall, with apologies for the long quote:

    “The election result may have come as a surprise to some, but behind the scenes Scott Morrison was quietly confident, having embarked on an ambitious and private campaign to win the hearts and minds of Australians.

    News.com.au has learned that Mr Morrison was hitting the phones almost every night in the final month of the campaign, speaking directly to voters to hear their thoughts and spruik his party’s policies.

    The calls, which were made to people in the electorate where he was campaigning that day, began as robo calls to a few thousand people, but told listeners to hang on as Mr Morrison was shortly going to jump on the line personally.

    And jump on he did — speaking directly to people listening on the call — often thousands at a time. As well as outlining key details of Coalition policy adapted to that particular area, Mr Morrison also answered questions submitted during the process.

    As the campaign drew to a close, Mr Morrison was sometimes doing two or three of these calls a night — working long after the day’s official proceedings had wound down.

    The sheer effort and time involved in these calls shows how determined Mr Morrison was to reach as many people as possible.

    Conversely, Mr Shorten’s didn’t do many public events in the last week except for a quick visit to Rhodes railway station in Sydney to hand out how-to-vote cards and a short stop at a Chinese restaurant in Burwood to make some dumplings.

    Diners at the Chinese restaurant were more enthusiastic but Mr Shorten only met a handful of people, and most were already Labor voters.

    Apart from one day when Mr Shorten crisscrossed the country from Tasmania, to South Australia and Western Australia, the pace during the last week seemed sluggish.

    After the death of Labor giant Bob Hawke, this slowed even more, with campaigning in Queensland dropped in favour of honouring the former prime minister.

    Mr Shorten said there were “more important things than scrounging a vote” but it was also clear he felt confident about a Labor win.

    ScoMo meanwhile was burning the midnight oil, flying around the country and to marginal seats right till the final moments — pulling off some 20-hour days in the last week.

    And, despite the bad polls, Mr Morrison projected an infectious energy and confidence, was quick to smile and embraced every moment. Unlike other leaders, he did not seem to be embarrassed to put himself in potentially awkward situations.

    The Prime Minster’s work rate and positive attitude may have been the extra edge that pushed his campaign over the line, but it’s clear his message was strong and simple too.

    He cleverly dismissed last year’s leadership spill as an issue that only mattered to those inside the “Canberra bubble” when pressed by journalists and instead said the election was about one thing — the economy.

    Labor’s ambitious agenda wasn’t as easy for Mr Shorten to sell to voters, and it was easy to shoot down, which the Coalition obviously did.

    In fact it did it with just two scary words: higher taxes.

    Labor’s plan to reform franking credits for retirees was painted as a “retiree tax” and its plan to scrap negative gearing for investment properties was painted as a way to punish Australians who had done the right thing and worked hard.

    Despite constant pushback from Mr Shorten, the message stuck when as they went to the polls.

    And, as the inquest into Labor’s disastrous showing continues, deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek has blamed misinformation related to claims Labor was plotting an “inheritance tax” or a “death tax”.

    However, critics on the other side have argued Labor’s policies were not misrepresented at all and that they were just bad ideas.

    “One of the most ridiculous things Labor is now saying is that they didn’t explain their policies well enough,” broadcaster Alan Jones said on his show yesterday.

    “Well, I have got news for you. It was because you explained them so splendidly that people took to you with a baseball bat.””

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/analysis/scott-morrison-worked-phones-almost-every-night-in-final-weeks-of-campaign-while-labor-ran-out-of-steam/news-story/69163d8cbef85410389c341c6f0cc512

  10. Thanks D&M! Yeah, it’s definitely common. Something most might not realise…most dealers I have ever known are right wingers – I’ve known a few and talking politics is also something they usually have a bit of passion for. It’s mixed bag as far as users go, but most are decent people and will respond to policies that are aimed at treating people right while saving money.

    I also don’t say bogans as derogation, it’s just about the conspicuous things they like. As a demographic they are also often politically agnostic, but will be berated by both sides, hence the common apathy.

    I’m mentioning them because I think these are the ones who’ve been led astray by their outspoken mates and by the big data outreach to them, for which they are often none-the-wiser.

    This is a good site revealing a bit of their culture, although this is more focused on somewhat decided voters.

    https://thingsboganslike.com/page/1/

  11. If new blood is required then that Jim Guy should get a go, no baggage from past, and from qld.

    Media not biased?

    @Michael Pascoe
    What a naive headline for the AFR – as if the RBA cutting rates at current levels represents good news about the economy.

  12. D & M

    First, I agree with your proposition that weed should be legalised.

    Second, the win by Coalition can hardly be called a ‘landslide’. Some room for satisfaction there.

    Third, thank you for the summary from the Guardian. I haven’t been doing much reading of election analysis lately, and this bells the cat on some erroneous beliefs.

    … richer electorates were more likely to swing to Labor, and poorer electorates were more likely to swing to the Coalition.
    …as the rate of people receiving franking credits goes up, and the rate of people negatively gearing properties goes up, so does the swing towards Labor.
    … The percentage of people who had completed year 12 in an electorate was correlated with a swing towards Labor.
    … electorates with higher unemployment or participation in education were more likely to swing to the Coalition
    … seats with more mines do tend to have a higher swing to the Coalition

    Conclusion: the less wealthy, less educated, and/or the insecure, frightened of losing their jobs, look to the Coalition to save them (they believe them better at managing the economy).

    Therefore a scary set of policies that questions the status quo will not appeal to them. They cannot handle more insecurity while waiting for improvement in their lives.

  13. Labor should be thankful that the bogans have moved to Morrison, very Cronulla, no longer poor, access to education, good schools and community support together with a loyalty akin to the thin veneer of fibro, the once often used moniker for the group.
    Bogan has become a widespread malaise, most notably associated with hi-viz and hi-lux.
    I’ve really no idea where Labor goes from this point as a political party.
    It’s far easier to define a role for the Union Movement as a body countering the the now omnipresent all powerful corporate Australia and its attack on working Australians.
    The first line of defence should be constructed to protect the integrity of industry super funds.
    The BNP* covet the highly successful industry super funds on so many levels.
    Shorten’s election was probably a good election to lose. Generally, Shorten has been a very lucky public figure. This observation may well prove itself to be true.

    BNP – Bogan National Party

  14. Morning all. For Labor, I am a bit aghast that Shorten is now trying to get Bowen into the leadership. No, please Bill! If Bowen is leader ScoMo will simply call him junior Bill and say nothing has changed. Labor needs new leadership blood. If it has to be right faction then Chalmers, who also ticks the Qld box. If not, Albo is probably the best bet to reconnect with the grass roots.

    But either way, not Bowen. He is intelligent and committed but has never cut through in political debate.

  15. Anyway, there’s moves in Victoria going on towards legalising weed, perhaps this can be pushed forward to see how it plays out. We got voluntary assisted dying, that’s basically locked in now, the naysayers will most likely never have the clout to overturn this. It’s a badge of pride the right didn’t even attempt to tarnish during the Victorian election.

  16. Zoidlord says:
    Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 6:39 am

    87 complaints https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/22/australian-electoral-commission-finds-87-cases-of-election-ads-breaching-law
    ————————

    I have just sent to one of the authors of this article the following email:

    Find it astonishing that in reporting the AEC findings that you did not do an analysis of the culprits. In the examples you cited, apart from the amusing eviction notices, all of the egregious incidents were aimed at Labor.

    Why can’t you come up with a quantitative analysis of breaches of the Act? Your kind of reporting just feeds into the meme that “they’re all the same.” I might change my mind if your more detailed examination shows that incidents involving Labor were just as numerous.

    There should also be an attempt to quantify the impact of these breaches. The death tax and robocall on house prices were obviously more effective in changing people’s minds than something like the fake eviction notice, so much so that they alone could have cost Labor the election.

    You can report to your bosses that on the basis of this important story I’m not inclined to provide financial support to the Guardian as I might well have.

  17. Allies of Morrison, including Western Australians Ben Morton and Steve Irons, may also be rewarded, while Victorian moderates Jane Hume and Tim Wilson are also in the mix for the new-look frontbench.

    If Jane Hume and Tim Wilson are moderates, both have evidenced very personal vicious attitudes towards Labor. Gawd elp us.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Michael Koziol explains all the factional positioning within the Labor leadership process.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-weird-bill-shorten-stuns-colleagues-as-he-lobbies-against-anthony-albanese-20190521-p51pni.html
    Dana McCauley tells us how a union leader poised to unleash industrial mayhem through a co-ordinated strike involving 38,000 workers across airports and the road transport industry has rejected employer claims the action would breach pattern bargaining laws.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/we-make-no-apology-union-leader-defends-strike-plan-for-industrial-mayhem-20190521-p51pmy.html
    Latika Bourke writes that the Liberals’ internal polling consistently showed the Coalition could win a third term, and that its fortunes turned around immediately after the budget with its promise of a surplus to give it a “pathway” to election day.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/very-tight-very-deliberate-internal-liberal-polling-showed-coalition-was-on-track-to-win-20190521-p51pi0.html
    Chris Uhlmann unpicks the failure of Labor’s campaign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-brutally-effective-campaign-ruthlessly-exploited-labor-s-mistakes-20190521-p51pjg.html
    Ross Gittins begins this contribution with “It’s always nice for the country to be led by someone who’s obviously got God on his side. When he prays for a miracle, he gets it. And the challenges facing the economy are such that Scott Morrison may need all the divine assistance he can summon.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-good-the-pm-has-god-on-his-side-he-may-need-all-the-assistance-he-can-get-20190521-p51pkr.html
    Four days after a federal election, Philip Lowe decided to give his most political of speeches. Shane Wright reports that Philip Lowe has delivered some big home truths to the freshly re-elected Morrison government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-good-is-that-rba-decides-it-s-time-for-some-real-policies-20190521-p51pmv.html
    And Stephen Bartholomeusz says the move to cut is a sudden and significant shift from the RBA.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/move-to-cut-is-a-sudden-and-significant-shift-from-the-rba-20190521-p51pog.html
    The election results showed many Australians were unswayed by Labor’s argument the economy is “broken” for working people and in need of drastic changes. But Philip Lowe warns something’s gotta give, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.outline.com/uGmyg6
    The RBA is getting ready to cut rates. But that also underlines the paucity of the new Morrison government’s economic plans, says the AFR editorial. The government cannot leave it all to easy money.
    https://www.outline.com/J4L6dG
    Michael Pascoe says that the RBA’s likely interest rate cuts are not good. They are not good news for Scott Morrison – or they are only good news if the PR machine can keep spinning the notion that black is white. They are not good news for Australia.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/05/21/rba-rate-cut-apra-economy/
    But HSBC chairman Graham Bradley has questioned the wisdom in cutting interest rates, saying the RBA would “surrender what little leverage they have”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-should-not-surrender-leverage-with-a-rate-cut-warns-bradley-20190521-p51psa.html
    Sam Maiden tells us that tax cuts for the “top end of town” could be waved through Parliament by Labor as it considers putting the Prime Minister under pressure to deliver on his tax cuts and his promised surplus.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/21/tax-cuts-labor-liberal/
    And she writes about “Magician Scott Morrison’s smoke-and-mirrors act on tax cuts”.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/05/22/scott-morrison-tax-cuts-2/
    Australian election 2019. Scott Morrison won the unwinnable election. Now the hard part begins says Katharine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/22/scott-morrison-won-the-unwinnable-election-now-the-hard-part-begins
    David Crowe reports that Frydenberg will challenge Labor to back the government’s full $158 billion income tax cut when Parliament resumes in the new financial year, amid an argument over the government’s delay to the first round of tax relief for millions of workers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/frydenberg-challenges-labor-to-pass-full-158-billion-income-tax-cut-20190521-p51pq8.html
    Matthew Knott explains why Scott Morrison’s victory wasn’t Australia’s Trump moment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/why-scott-morrison-s-victory-wasn-t-australia-s-trump-moment-20190521-p51pfc.html
    Electorates that swung harder to the Liberal and National parties are more likely to have higher unemployment, lower income, lower levels of education and fewer migrants, according to a Guardian Australia analysis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2019/may/22/the-eight-charts-that-help-explain-why-the-coalition-won-the-2019-australian-election
    Three lessons from behavioural economics that Bill Shorten’s Labor Party forgot about.
    https://theconversation.com/3-lessons-from-behavioural-economics-bill-shortens-labor-party-forgot-about-117404
    Jenna Price begs Plibersek to change her mind and run for the leadership.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/tanya-i-would-gladly-retire-from-my-career-to-care-for-your-kids-20190521-p51pgo.html
    An introspective Peter Lewis tries to fathom how the polls got it so wrong.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/21/as-pollsters-we-are-rightly-in-the-firing-line-after-the-australian-election-what-happened
    The politics of fear and division, with assistance from small parties, was used to keep the conservatives in power for two decades by Menzies, and has now been successfully recycled, writes Bilal Cleland.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-coalitions-politics-of-fear-a-tried-and-true-election-recipe,12725
    In an interesting contribution Dennis Muller writes that two big media-related issues have emerged from the federal election: how opinion polls are reported and the polarisation of the main newspaper groups.
    https://theconversation.com/outrage-polls-and-bias-2019-federal-election-showed-australian-media-need-better-regulation-117401
    Sarah Martin writes that Barnaby Joyce is positioning himself for a return to cabinet following the Coalition’s shock election win, as Scott Morrison prepares to unveil his new-look frontbench as early as next week. Heaven forbid!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/21/barnaby-joyce-agitating-for-return-to-cabinet-as-morrison-prepares-frontbench
    The APS got caught with its pants down expecting a Labor win and had to shred all the red books and make new blue ones for incoming Coalition ministers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/public-servants-scramble-to-prepare-briefs-for-new-morrison-ministry-20190521-p51phw.html
    The Nationals are angling for the trade portfolio in Scott Morrison’s new cabinet, after their strong showing in Saturday’s federal election.
    https://www.outline.com/qrYZ25
    Fergus Hunter reports that Tim Fischer reckons Morrison should post Abbott to the Vatican. At least it would get him out of the way!
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/post-tony-abbott-to-the-vatican-says-former-deputy-pm-tim-fischer-20190521-p51plf.html
    Power company chiefs are urging the Morrison government to forge a bipartisan energy and climate policy.
    https://www.outline.com/5A5K8d
    David Wroe explains the concept of a “technology cold war” and how it could be avoided.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-to-avoid-a-technology-iron-curtain-in-a-new-cold-war-20190521-p51psi.html
    APRA is loosening regulatory screws on home loans.
    https://www.outline.com/egrMHP
    There has been a statistical surge in the number of Australians looking at a move to New Zealand following last week’s election. Immigration New Zealand said there was a more than 10-fold increase in Australians looking at its website on Sunday and expressions of interest increased by more than 25 times on the same time the week before.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6138870/nz-immigration-website-traffic-surges-after-coalition-victory/?cs=14350
    The New South Wales regulator has laid more charges against one of the state’s biggest cotton growers, Peter Harris, alleging that in August 2015 he extracted water from the Barwon river when the meters on his pumps weren’t working.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/21/nsw-cotton-grower-faces-more-charges-over-water-pumped-from-barwon-river
    The SMH editorial exhorts people to get their flu jabs asap for the common good.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/take-one-for-the-common-good-and-get-a-flu-jab-today-20190521-p51prg.html
    Here we go! Nick Miller reports that Theresa May has opened the door – barely – to the possibility of a second Brexit referendum in her last-ditch effort to get the UK out of the European Union on the terms of the deal she has agreed with Brussels.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/bold-new-offer-may-opens-door-to-second-referendum-in-last-ditch-plan-20190522-p51pu4.html
    Former White House counsel Donald McGahn was a no-show on Tuesday at a House committee hearing, infuriating Democrats who are ramping up calls to start impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump despite continued resistance from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/mcgahn-fails-to-show-at-hearing-amping-up-anger-among-house-democrats-20190522-p51pu3.html
    US abortion-rights campaigners, including several Democrats running for president in 2020, rallied in front of the supreme court and across the country on Tuesday to protest against extreme new restrictions on abortion passed by legislatures in eight states.
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/may/21/abortion-rights-activists-to-rally-at-supreme-court-to-protest-new-state-bans
    Jamie Oliver is cooked.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/i-am-deeply-saddened-by-this-outcome-jamie-oliver-s-restaurant-chain-goes-into-administration-20190521-p51ptr.html
    Cara Waters provides todays nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/extraordinarily-heartless-store-sacks-chef-with-cancer-for-taking-sick-leave-20190521-p51pqi.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe does not think Labor is in a good position.

    Cathy Wilcox and the post mortem.

    Peter Broelman also.

    Simon Letch sees economic trouble ahead for Morrison.

    And he looks at the government’s home loan policy.

    From Matt Golding.






    Two good ones from John Shakespeare.


    Zanetti might have this one right.

    So has Sean Leahy.

    Jon Kudelka and the end of the Palmer campaign.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a69a2d9567862113e6701d63fe6d71d5?width=1024

    From the US





  19. On fraudulent HTVs – we had one dropped into people’s letterboxes, in Labor’s colours, with ‘Vote 1 Labor’ and ‘Vote 2 National.”

    It’s been referred.

  20. Tim Fischer reckons Morrison should post Abbott to the Vatican.

    What an excellent idea. But I fear his budgie smugglers wouldn’t fit in.

  21. Right. So the problem wasn’t negative gearing and it wasn’t franking credits – both appear to have been positives.* The problem was climate change policies and their believed impact on mining jobs.

    If rural/regional voters in the midst of a drought can’t understand the necessity of dealing with climate change, no amount of rational analysis is going to cut it.

    I’m not saying (far from it, last thing I would recommend) that Labor should drop the baton on climate change. But it either needs to throw more money at the seats who feel they’re going to be most impacted by action or (alternatively) to cut them loose entirely and go for broke on the types of seats where indies were elected, the teals who want action.

    *Which also means, shut up about Bowen’s role in crafting these policies.

  22. G’day Bludgers.

    Tentatively peeping out from the rubble of dashed expectations. Back to 2004 again. It still hurts.

    Thoughts on the ALP leadership: the Rupertariat (and its Owners) will only allow a candidate that they have some sort of lock on – as they did Rudd. Hence Kill Bill and the feeding of Julia Gillard to the scared bogans. That’s how their cabal of GRASPers operates. I suspect that Albo is as compromised as Plibersek’s husband in their eyes – so his ambition may be “acceptable” to the Rupertariat, whereas Plibersek is being sensible in avoiding the hell that would be visited upon her. Bowen is right out from the perspective of our corporate warlords, and their toothless minions, and I don’t know how to place the other candidates. I suspect that the next leader will be sacrificial anyway.

    Ironically, I think the only potential leader that even the Murdorcs could not touch is Linda Burney – but I can’t see insecure QLD regionals identifying with her ’cause she’s both female and indigenous.

    Poor fellow my country.

  23. Albo not Bowen, Chalmers for deputy.

    The ability to project warmth and brio does seem to matter. There are exceptions, but it’s uphill at the swinging margins if you tend to shut down a little on camera (this was fatal for Gillard. No matter how good you are, the punters need to “feel” it. Alas.)

    Also agree re the comment about Albo being a wonk for infrastructure being a potential plus. This is the big stuff with long horizons that the electorate can see and which the private sector simply will not do.

    NotanALPmember. Yet.

  24. “Morning all. For Labor, I am a bit aghast that Shorten is now trying to get Bowen into the leadership. No, please Bill! If Bowen is leader ScoMo will simply call him junior Bill and say nothing has changed. Labor needs new leadership blood. If it has to be right faction then Chalmers, who also ticks the Qld box. If not, Albo is probably the best bet to reconnect with the grass roots. But either way, not Bowen. He is intelligent and committed but has never cut through in political debate.”

    I was told yesterday that a growing concern among some parts of the Labor Right is that, while Albo himself is a pragmatic sort of guy, he has a lot of people around him whose fervently-held wish is to transform the ALP into Corbyn Labour.

    The Right are concerned that, if Albo’s mates have their way, they will adjust the process for selecting the leader to give the branches even more power, thereby ensuring perpetual control by the Left, as well as further marginalisation of the minority social conservative group (most Catholic but also including a growing number of Muslims).

    With some justification, their concern is that such a transformation would make Labor permanently unelectable.

    It’s perhaps this thinking, rather than mad conspiracy theories about him eyeing off a future return to the leadership, that is driving Shorten’s interest in the leadership vote.

  25. “Magician Scott Morrison’s smoke-and-mirrors act on tax cuts”

    Did you see what he just did there? The Prime Minister just dropped in that he can’t bring Parliament back before July 1 into a blizzard of words and then glides on as if nothing happened.

    It had actually. Because the $1080 tax cuts are a refund to be paid for the current 2018-19 financial year not the next financial year.

    The ABC then wrote a story that was wrong, assuming the tax cuts could be delayed for a year.

    In fact, as The New Daily reported during the election, the Australian Tax Office planned to pay the tax cut in two installments if necessary through an amended tax return.

    Just hours after Scott Morrison admitted the delays to the tax cuts, up popped treasury spokesman Chris Bowen.

    But instead of ripping into the government for a broken promise, he was standing outside his childhood home delivering a monologue on why he should lead the Labor Party and why only he could deliver an economic message to Western Sydney.

    Sadly, the election result doesn’t exactly back up his sales pitch.

    It took hundreds of words for him to get to “Scott Morrison’s broken promise”.

    With the Labor Party preparing to spend the next month downing tools to run a leadership parade there is every chance the Prime Minister will get away with it.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/05/22/scott-morrison-tax-cuts-2/

  26. From BK re tax cuts, and Labor considering waving them all through:

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/21/tax-cuts-labor-liberal/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190522

    I bloody well hope not. Sure, it’ll put Morrison in a bind re a surplus. But… it’s shit policy. Creating a rod for Labor’s own back in their quest for re-election. And very close to half of Australia didn’t vote for them. Labor should be representing those people- let the LNP and Centre Alliance wear it if they want to get it through.

  27. Well the buyer remorse for reelecting ScoMo should start soon. The broken promises are piling up before he even hits parliament.

    Thanks for the votes, worker suckers, but no tax cuts for you this year.
    Thanks for the votes, retiree suckers, but investment returns are going down.
    Thanks for the votes, first home buyer suckers but housing economists now agree that my policy will make no difference to your getting a house.

    Labor needs to paint the LiarfromtheShire as a liar every day from now on.

    Have a good day all.

  28. meher bara

    Shorten should butt out.

    I apologise to Bill. Should have known that there was more to it.

    For what it’s worth, after reading the analysis of the election results that I have quoted above, I think Labor should move to the centre and concentrate on jobs, leaving the Greens to fill the left.

  29. zoomster: “Right. So the problem wasn’t negative gearing and it wasn’t franking credits – both appear to have been positives.”

    Where did you get this information from? Opinion polls? Or perhaps a more reliable source such as reading goat entrails?

    Albo thinks it was the tax package. So does Kate Ellis. And, for that matter, so do the Libs.

  30. If ScoMo is now blaming his inability to deliver the tax cuts on his inability to bring back parliament in time, then why didn’t he call the election a week earlier? As he easily could have done.

  31. Hey Lizzie, I never said “Shorten should butt out.” I’m sure you didn’t meant to do it, but you verballed me.

    My view on Shorten’s involvement in the leadership challenge is that it’s fine as long as he intends to leave politics fairly soon. If he wants to hang around like a Rudd or an Abbott, then yes, he should butt out.

  32. rhwombat says:
    Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 7:18 am

    G’day Bludgers.

    Tentatively peeping out from the rubble of dashed expectations. Back to 2004 again. It still hurts.

    Thoughts on the ALP leadership: the Rupertariat (and its Owners) will only allow a candidate that they have some sort of lock on – as they did Rudd

    ————————————-

    Yes. I was wondering whether Murdoch’s gang support Albo because they have something on him that they can pull out at the opportune moment (a couple of days before the next election).

    My personal preference, based on his strong performance in the HoR is Tony Burke. He looks like the kind of pit bull that Labor need to counter the thugs on the other side of the chamber. Albo, while he has the experience, doesn’t have Burke’s quickness on his feet, physical stature or I feel, the charisma to make him a household word.

    But spare me.

    All this crap about letting the Liberal agenda go through! After what the Coalition did to Labor in the election, the Party should take no prisoners.

    With a razor-thin majority, they have no mandate for anything. Nope, nope and nope. Grind the bastards down, beat them at their dirty game and keep reminding the voters what an extraordinarily ordinary gang they are, led by the failed adman from the Shire.

    I’ve said it before but “nice guys finish last,” as we have just learned.

  33. Lizzie
    Tim Fischer reckons Morrison should post Abbott to the Vatican.

    I can see the Pope being ecstatic at that, Abbott possibly the contemporary world’s largest abuser of refugees, architect of turnback … everything the Pope abhors

  34. I’d also like to restate one of the biggest confounding factors in analyzing this election result is the amount of fake policy attributed to the ALP.

    Any analysis has to include assessing what people thought they might be voting for, not just what Labor were actually proposing.

    As the most blatant examples, if the “death tax” or “car tax” were significant factors in how people voted in crucial seats then it’s clearly not a matter of ditching these non-existent parts of the election platform (or indeed moving to the left or right), it’s a matter of working out how these bits of misinformation took hold and how this kind of thing might be neutralized effectively into the future.

  35. Did anyone in the media (mainstream or indie) correctly describe the LMITO as a tax offset?? It’s not a “lump sum tax refund”, it’s not a “cheque”.

    The ATO is quite clear about this:

    Tax offsets (sometimes referred to as rebates) directly reduce the amount of tax payable on your taxable income.

    In general, offsets can reduce your tax payable to zero, but on their own they can’t get you a refund.

    The budget describes it as a “targeted offset”:
    https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/tax.htm

  36. Anyone reckon that a continuation of the property boom that has delivered a 10000% increase in value of houses in the largest cities since 1970 and given rise to the ubiquitous “tradies” is going to re-ignite, freeing up the credit cards again with Morrison leading all to a new utopia ?

  37. @Radguy

    Legalizing weed would be a very tough proposition in Australia, many Baby Boomers here are anti-drugs. If the federal Labor party proposed something like that, the Liberals would not hesitate to launch a scare campaign.

    It is noteworthy that a state Coalition government got re-elected by opposing testing of pills at music festivals, along with having implemented the lock-out laws. One Nation under the leadership of Mark Latham won 6.9% of the vote and got two legislative councilors elected, supporting the same stances.

    In a lot of ways Australia is a quite conservative country, it is just we aren’t terribly religious. If we were more religious, we would resemble the Southern States of America quite a lot.

  38. Labor should now focus on getting a leader to focus on core issue, jobs.

    There was no mention of it and no mention of your rights and work, or the casualisation of the work force.

    Where the fuxk is the the unions again?

  39. In terms of where Abbott would do the least damage if they absolutely must give him a posting, the Vatican would probably be it. I’m not sure what such a diplomatic posting does?

    In terms of whether Labor should keep pursuing the range of revenue raising measures they took to the election, my view would be if it could have contributed to the defeat, they should abandon it. I always thought they were excessively risky and only made it to the election because of polls which may have been faulty the whole time. I know it is hard for many people to accept Labor could be wrong on something, but this is the time to do seriously reflect and move forward.

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