The latest – or some of it at least:
• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.
• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.
• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.
• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.
I think it’s perfectly fine to use your personal experience of a person to determine whether they’d make a good leader. If that personal experience is sufficiently bad, it will outweigh any perceived benefits they might have for the party overall.
It’s easy to be derisive if you haven’t had such personal experiences.
“I actually think Catherine King would be Labor’s best choice as LOTO. She doesn’t suffer Liberal fools gladly but does it with a smile after taking deadly aim at them. She’s also from a Provincial seat. Knows how to mix it with all types of Aussies.”
Catherine King’s seat of Ballarat is a medium-sized university city in Victoria and a big tourist destination. It is far, far more removed from the mainstream middle Australia than you liberal hallucinators would think, not least also being the birthplace for the anti-business, economy-ruining, ultra-left Eureka movement.
nath says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 10:24 am
Supposedly she’s on pretty good terms with Cormann, so what?
The Morrison Government = The Turnbull government minus the talent!
Cheery thought for the day…
Bill Shorten’s Victorian Right faction is set to back Chris Bowen against Anthony Albanese, with the Opposition Leader telling his factional allies to support the architect of his rejected tax agenda.
The Australian has been told Mr Shorten has spoken to Mr Bowen and Mr Chalmers and encouraged them to run in the ballot.
He was initially backing Ms Plibersek to replace him in the role.
The Victorian Right is splintered and Mr Shorten does not wield full control over its numbers, but powerbroker Adem Somyurek is also set to back a Mr Bowen or Mr Chalmers over Mr Albanese.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2019-penny-wong-to-back-anthony-albanese-for-labor-leadership/news-story/b0b0921d166dc8fe3029419148c5ff5a
Actually, I should qualify that, they were against war…right now…in Iran. Still, a defuse is a defuse.
Bucephalus
I think you have missed my point or maybe i haven’t explained it properly.
Something has to be done with the franking credits policy eventually, otherwise it will consume greater & greater amounts of the federal budget, to the exclusion of other more worthwhile policies.
Is it too much to expect the Libs to recognise this and do something rational for a change?
Perhaps they could spring it on everyone well before an election.
Same goes for negative gearing & capital gains tax of course.
Apologies if previously posted but Ross Gittins (SMH) explains why “Miracle” Morrison really does need a miracle to counter a moribund economy heading downhill fast. The problem is that miracles are few and far between nowadays.
Well, by Bowen and pretty much every other nation on the planet (bar Italy, Mexico, Finalnd, and NZ). How much party debate is required for policy that’s generally recognized as correct due to worldwide adoption?
If the Libs are able to get their tax cuts through the Senate with the help of Centre Alliance and other minors/indies, Labor should definitely vote against them.
Anyone proposing that Labor should vote for them because of the benefit to those on minimum wage need to be taken out behind the shed and shot.
The minimum wage is currently $37, 398.40 pa. The tax rebates will be $255 a year for people earning that. The equivalent of less than $5 a week. Not even a sandwich, let alone a sandwich and a milkshake.
briefly says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 10:30 am
Yeah right, every i dotted and t crossed, that would certainly make it an agile organisation¿
How often do you have your National conference?
The only time the Liberals will consider doing anything with franking credits is if there was a massive budgetary crisis that couldn’t be fixed through more cuts to services. I’d be surprised if after their current winning campaign they made any effort to raise extra revenues. I don’t foresee many major budgetary measures coming up really… The Coalition still have a fairly small majority and can’t afford to create too many losers.
Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01
44m44 minutes ago
Some inconvenient truths. Voting so far:
Coalition parties: 4,998,841
Labor and Greens: 5,270,780
How correct is this? How are the 8.3% 1,000,000 “others ” distributed if at all
Dan Gulberry @ #102 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 9:36 am
Absolutely agree D&M, RG & DG. Legalise, regulate and normalise cannabis use now – just don’t expect to make money from it.
First, can we get rid of the medicinal cannabis canard? On a professional level, cannabis is no more medicinal than paracetamol, no matter what that ethically bankrupt egomaniacal idiot Andrew Katelaris pushes. I was peripherally involved with one of the two women with terminal cancer that he abused in Newcastle. No one who knew about this will ever support HEMP while he remains on their ticket.
Salk
Keep posting your delusions about Trump. They have given me the best laugh I have had in weeks
Mike Carlton is just adding primaries I presume, which is not really that informative.
Davidwh says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 9:14 am
Tommy that article is pretty selective in what it compares. More relevant the Coalition vote fell 0.5% and Labor’s vote fell 0.9%. Just using the Liberal vote and ignoring the LNP and Nats just gives a distorted view of the situation.
There was a swing against the establishment to minor parties which is the real story from the election. Unless both majors deal with that situation I can see more elections like the one we just had. Neither side will be comfortable about winning until we see where the preferences flow.
Yup.
On the whole, voters are sick to death of politics. The voters with the greatest problems and the greatest fears are the most resentful of all. They detest politicians, parties, campaigns, electioneering, the media, the polls, the language, the process, the results, the choices….the very idea that they might be interested gives some of them apoplexy.
They see politics as a scam.
Briefly
They see it as a scam and they are missing out on something.
@Just Quietly
I would argue Morrison Government = Abbott Government without Tony Abbott’s whackiness.
So I am expecting new coal mines (Adani and the Galliee basin), new coal fired power plants, budget cuts to the ABC, attempts to water down or abolish 18C of the racial discrimination act, cashless debit cards to spread throughout the country and every CentreLink recipient under say 35, probably ‘interventions’ in remote Aboriginal communities, repeal of the Medivac bill, lots of racist dog whistling, further reducing or abolishing penalty rates, considerable tax cuts focused on the higher tax brackets, etc.
The Liberal ‘moderates’ are in a far weaker position now to give any resistance to some or all these actins. While the hard right have been embolden by the election and have increased in numbers.
I see sport the same way that most voters see politics. I could not care less about any of it. I am aware there are teams that get dressed up and engage in ritualistic combat with each other. But I really take no interest in any of it whatsoever. If I was compelled to take it seriously, I would feel my rights had been violated. Millions of voters feel the same way about politics.
Politics is a scam from the viewpoint of most voters. They know they are being importuned by charlatans most of the time. They are not stupid.
So will we see Overton move right or a backlash? What factors determine which of these will be the narrative of the next three years?
ltep:
Correct. While potential future Deficits seem to be a mildly scary bogeyman, actual realised past Deficits don’t seem to have any political salience at all. I expect the Government to run a string of deficit budgets with a Surplus always forecast for 2 to 3 years in the future.
Caf – the big problem for Scummo is that his whole election campaign was based upon the Govt going back into SURPLUS. He’s created some real expectations there. Pretty hard to now tell the dimwits that’s not true.
Wouldn’t it all have been easier if Shorten had led the Labor party to a glorious victory?
Don’t actually answer that.
It just seems that there exists plenty of remorse from lots of people about a lot of things.
Perhaps Tony Burke is staying clear of the next years which look to be ugly at this stage.
“In short, you embarrass the hell out of them, make them lose their cool, make them bring out an ugliness that’s highly visible to those who value their own personal sovereignty.”
So Not Sure, you performed exactly as I intended. You maligned and then tried to play me. Game over punk.
briefly says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 10:58 am
If they’re not willing to reevaluate, then that sounds like a definition of stupid.
This sort of attitude plays into the Coalition’s hands.
antonbruckner11:
He’ll just tell them it’s a Surplus Delayed, always just around that next bend in the road. It doesn’t really matter anyway, come the next election basically the only events of any relevance to the result will be those from the preceding 6 months.
Thanks BK, your harvesting for us all this morning is as enlightening as ever.
Simon Letch’s cartoon is the highlight for me today. Morrison’s re-election pitch rested solely on a claim to “keep the nation’s economy strong and its coffers in the black”. Strong economic headwinds imperil both. If it goes belly up, Morrison & his Liberals will have nowhere to hide – as was the case with Fraser & Howard in 1980-83.
Which reminds me: unemployment is low, interest rates are at a record low, and inflation is zero. What odds they will all be higher come 2022? And when did a government ever get re-elected after a term in which all three rose? Or how often have they when two of these three have risen sharply?
This election, it wasn’t quite yet time for Australia to vote out its conservative government, for whatever reasons. This accords strongly with our past voting behaviour as a nation: in over a century, no conservative government has been voted out before serving three terms. But denying them a fourth term? Yeah, we’ve shown before we’re quite prepared to that: in 1983. And that was on the back of a dishonest tax scare campaign by the Libs in 1980, followed by abject economic failure by Fraser & Howard subsequently.
Could history repeat itself this term? I think it can.
Briefly
Voters are not stupid!
Some may argue with that propsition!
I don’t think the voters in general regret the election result. Thinking that there is widespread voter remorse is not conducive to strategy moving forward. I would also urge the politicians not to fall into the trap of thinking their dislike of Morrison is shared by the voters. Presume he is currently popular and work on changing that over time.
Okay, got my perfect team to lead Labor to the next election:
Gentleman Jim Chalmers as LOTO, and
Catherine King as Deputy LOTO. 🙂
@shiftaling
Scomo I believe would have made a mistake in not anticipating a serious backlash against their politics and whoever leads the Labor Party will likely make the same mistake.
On the other hand the Greens could stand to benefit greatly electorally if they can develop an economically redistributionist platform and a transition plan for decarbonisation of the economy similar to the “Green Industrial Revolution” the British Labour Party are currently proposing.
Look at what has been happening in America since Trump has become President. People there especially the young are increasingly becoming ‘Democratic Socialists’. A similar process has happened in Britain with Tory austerity and Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader. There has been a revival in Marxist thought in Britain and lots of young people who have born the brunt of austerity are becoming Socialists.
C@t
Quite a reasonable and complementary team.
It was tonight that the leadership contenders will officially be putting their hand up isn’t it? How long did the membership ballot take last time?
C@t
I can see that!
Dan Gulberry @ #159 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 10:45 am
And that may all be well and good in theory but you must know that Morriscum and Frythebudget will hammer the perception of Labor not voting to give the working poor a sandwich.
@ltep
I agree and Scomo wont do anything to make the voters feel liked they were lied to or betrayed by him. Scomo is pretty intelligent and cunning, Trump isn’t.
Trump made a lot of promises during his election campaign, so many of the people in the rust-belt are feeling betrayed and believe Trump lied to them.
So the government will go after marginalized targets, Centrelink receipts (Pensioners expected), Black African immigrant groups, First Nations people, Asylum Seekers, Muslims etc
I think the membership ballot takes 20 days.
“a r says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 8:49 am
Blobbit @ #75 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 8:45 am
Nah. The ALP had a couple of major perceived policies – tax increases and closing coal –
Lies.
Just because those policies didn’t exist doesn’t really matter. Their actual policies could be spun that way.
Lies, and fear.”
Absolutely. Labor bought into the narrative that people are unhappy with politics because there was no one with clearly explained, honest policies. So they had some, and were honest there would be some losers, at least with their tax policy.
Turns out the public isn’t really sick of politicians. They’re sick of change and uncertainty I suspect. So they went for the warm hug.
I am still in shock. I define my politics as far more anti-LNP than I am pro-Labor.
I am feeling a lot of anger towards Labor’s Parliamentary establishment. Of course, the new leader has to be selected from the same demonstrably failed bunch of politcians. Labor seems to pick from an increasingly small gene pool of inbred apparatchiks.
It really doesn’t matter who gets elected leader, none of them have any passion or mongrel. They just flag through any and all right wing Bills supporting the continual slide to Australia as a reactionary country. They court the same global liberal capitalist vote that the Greens court and hand over the mass of working class voters to the LNP.
But they get their inflated salaries in opposition sitting on their privildged inflated arses with no responsibilities. Maybe they prefer opposition. But most of them do not deserve opposition much less in government.
Chalmers certainly shares Shorten’s ability to cry up a storm. Should work out great:
Mr Rudd replaced Julia Gillard as prime minister the following year. He now claims when Mr Chalmers flew to Canberra to “plead” for his preselection, the Queensland MP “broke down in tears in front of me” in the prime ministerial suite.
Mr Rudd urged the young MP not to waste his political potential by becoming an apprentice of the party’s faceless men.”I concluded by asking Chalmers what he would do if he were in my circumstances right then. Chalmers wasn’t expecting that question,” Mr Rudd recounts.
“He paused. He cried again. And said, ‘I probably wouldn’t have me in the caucus.’”
ltep Thanks, so it could all be done and dusted before the writs are returned. That was one of my main concerns. It would be good to start the new session with the new leader in place.
What’s Chalmers got to offer? Why is his Wiki page so thin? And how did he manage to support himself to get a PHD? Oh. He’s not Albo.
“will hammer the perception of Labor not voting to give the working poor a sandwich.”
It’s ok, the Greens will stop it in the senate with their BOP. Remember the ALP needs the Greens, but they don’t need the ALP.
Sorry for being AWOL and not being involved in the conversation.
I am still suffering from ‘Shellshock’ and the medicos have told me to lay low and take it very easy.
I intend to take their advice.
I have not watched the News on TV since saturday night.
shiftaling says:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 11:15 am
It’s not a quick process.
From memory, last time they had a campaigning period and then voting, so more than a month.
Labor needs to use the available hammers more effectively.
They didn’t at the last election just past.
nath
Given how indignant Rudd was when he was accused about crying by Latham, it’s a bit hypocritical of him to portray others as sooks.