Of swings and misses

The Coalition’s parliamentary majority looks secure, as the polling industry starts facing up to what went wrong.

The latest – or some of it at least:

• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.

• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.

• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.

• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,724 comments on “Of swings and misses”

  1. FFS, can the ALP please stop trying to be the party of ideas when in opposition.

    Yes. Before one of them suggests a tax of some sort that will come back as a scare campaign in 2021.

  2. What is stupid Burke talking about?

    What the f*** is a “Green Deal” of which he wants a new one?

    When was the ‘Old’ Green Deal ?

  3. @adrian

    Tony Burke is one of my favorite Labor politicians, you have to see the response he made with alt-right figure Lauren Southern, went into Lakemba in his electorate of Watson, to harass some people at a local mosque. Also replying to Southern’s accusations that Lakemba was under Sharia law.

  4. A comment from over at the guardian

    Greens warn Labor Qld…ho hum… no one cared if Adani fell over by itself but all of this outrage over the actual process that Labor has to follow the law over, I mean…are you Greens pretending to be idiots or are you actual idiots?

    Unfortunately I had to vote early as was heading to China
    Gave my vote to alp in the senate 123456 then the greens789 etc
    Before the brown and Dirty dicks little escapade in qld.
    That’s me bitten once ,won’t happen again

  5. Back from a tedious trip! and firstly wanted to thank Sceptic and C@t for kindly posting an article from Barry Jones for me on election eve. much appreciated and sorry i couldn’t get to thank you both earlier.

  6. Bar Bar

    “Turnbull made a big impact with aspirationals?
    When?”

    In all the opinion polls in which he always remained personally very popular, even when his party struggled.

    “Not in 2016 campaign.”

    Which he won.

    “Nor in following by elections.
    Especially not in Longman…..”

    By-elections caused by section 44 issues are typically won by the sitting member: this dates back at least to Jackie Kelly in 1996. I think the Libs were way ahead of themselves in thinking that they might win Longman or Braddon. Some of this involved elements within the Liberal Party deliberately attempting to set up Turnbull to fail.

    “What makes you a fan of Turnbull – demonstrably the most politically inept Liberal prime minister, at least post war?”

    I’m not at all a fan of Turnbull. But, as PM, he did seem to have a pretty broad public appeal. How you could consider him to have been more politically inept than the guy who made Prince Philip a knight and said he was going to shirtfront Vladimir Putin, I have absolutely no idea.

  7. The name “Green New Deal” is an allusion to the FDR’s New Deal from the 1930s. It’s an American term for an American idea. Any comparable idea proposed for Australia should not use that name.

    As for the American policy that is its namesake, as a big picture, it is a noble and agreeable goal but, on specifics, it has big problems and still needs to be worked on. Throwing tantrums and demanding everybody submit to it isn’t going to see any of it become reality though.

  8. So, Tim Wil;son, Penny Wong and others are going to have to sit in a parliament with people who think they are rubbish. How, nice and civilised.

  9. “lizzie says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 4:27 pm
    Burke also explained why people shouldn’t get so over-excited on Annastacia’s call for a ‘timeline’.”

    Gah. Will the ALP stop explaining things as well.

    Soundbites. That’s all that’s needed.

    Adani – “we’ll make sure we support the workers in getting the best outcome for them and the broader community”

  10. I apologise.

    Burke
    “I welcome moves from some unions to support a ‘green new deal’ to transition workers out of coal. If Labor and unions keep backing coal, they’re not just giving workers false hope, they’re keeping the LNP in government.”

  11. I wasn’t endorsing Burke’s ideas because I have no concept of what they involve, but what a lot of you need to realise is that Labor will get precisely nowhere by being Liberal lite.

    I think some of you’ve learnt the wrong lesson from the election.
    Scared of a scare campaign? Develop techniques to successfully counter it. Mobilise popular support.
    This will have the added benefit of reducing support for those dreaded Greens!

  12. Watermelon says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 3:16 pm

    Deliberately causing major economic disruption is going to do wonders for any smooth transition

    Heating the planet with fossil fuels is “deliberately causing major economic disruption”. The disruption is not something you have a choice over. If you want a smooth transition the first step is to acknowledge what you’re dealing with. Either you believe the science or you don’t.

    I 100% agree that global warming will cause disruptions to Societies around the World, this is unavoidable due to the nature of the problem and the timeframes needed to deal with it.

    But why would you want to do something that would impact on our ability to deal with the issue.

    Like it or not our Society requires fossil fuels for it to function and until we establish alternate capacity to replace it that will remain the case.

    If you remove fossil fuels before that capacity has been established then Societies will be severely impacted, reducing our ability to deal with the problem.

    Even were we to reach zero human emissions global warming would still be an issue and only through maintaining a functioning Society will we have any hope of dealing with it.

    You can “believe the science” all you like, but you also need to understand the science.

  13. jeff @ #1456 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 4:25 pm

    Back from a tedious trip! and firstly wanted to thank Sceptic and C@t for kindly posting an article from Barry Jones for me on election eve. much appreciated and sorry i couldn’t get to thank you both earlier.

    My pleasure. If words and thoughts are worth hearing, then the more widely spread they are the better. 🙂

  14. briefly

    “Clare O’Neil
    Personal
    Born 12.9.1980, Melbourne, Australia
    ….”

    I really liked the look of her cv until I reached this line:

    “Engagement Manager, McKinsey and Company 2009-13”

    I really liked the look of her cv until I got to this bit.

  15. Bakunin

    What is the relevance of century old US policies to Australia?

    Would anybody, apart from the Ozmerican groupies, know what the US New Deal is?

    Just shows up Burke as just another derivative ALP politician with his colonialist mindset.

  16. I wasn’t endorsing Burke’s ideas because I have no concept of what they involve, but what a lot of you need to realise is that Labor will get precisely nowhere by being Liberal lite.

    Two different things. There is no benefit in throwing around ideas like that esp ‘Green New Deal’. It is laden with problems.

    Maybe something like ‘we need to discuss the transition for coal miners and coal regions with them’. But even that should wait. There is a ratbag in the House who needs to be kept to account.

  17. “It’s not Corbyn-lite at all, because the whole point of “soaking” the “rich” in this case was so that the idiot Bowen could brag about having a budget surplus “three times as large” as the Liberals.”

    That’s a misrepresentation – the surplus aim served two purposes; one it dampens the ridiculous claims of the Liberals being better economic managers, and secondly in the event of any of the revenue measures not being passed in full it leaves Labor a buffer from which to draw to still honour their spending commitments. Quite elegant, really.

  18. But why would you want to do something that would impact on our ability to deal with the issue.

    Like it or not our Society requires fossil fuels for it to function and until we establish alternate capacity to replace it that will remain the case.

    “Dealing with the issue” means a 45% cut in carbon emissions by 2030 and a 100% cut by 2050. Otherwise you’re not dealing with the issue.

  19. To my mind borrowing uncritically foreign concepts that happen to be the flavour of the month amongst a certain inner group reflects how detached from local culture ALP politicians can become.

    Favouring the global (i.e. US) over the local. Talking amongst themselves.

  20. Briefly reading through post election comments on the disaster that was, and witnessing the current political goings on on QLD, i am totally at a loss to describe the stupidity.
    What do we have already? abandoning of sound fiscal policy, same old blame everyone else mentality etc etc….
    The only reason why the Libs got up was because Labor failed to sell the message, pure and simple. I’ve read many a BS comment and article on “where the climate change vote went”, well it didn’t other than to the Greens.
    Prior to the election i thought the Greens would have no change of retaining all their senate spots, they were the party with the most to lose. Now it seems that having the guts to stand up and act on climate change has resonated in the electorate and candidates who i though were gone for all money like Larissa Waters in QLD and Sarah Hanson-Young have put themselves in the box seat to be returned. The Greens senate vote virtually doubling in SA and rising over 3% in QLD.
    At the next federal election (assuming its not a DD) the greens will have only 3 members up for re-election making a real possibility of getting 12 senators and a very outside chance of 13 if they can continue the steady inroads in the ACT.

  21. If journalists get antsy with ALP pollies when they avoid policy questions like that, tell them they let Morrison do it in an election campaign – so get nicked.

  22. That’s a misrepresentation – the surplus aim served two purposes; one it dampens the ridiculous claims of the Liberals being better economic managers, and secondly in the event of any of the revenue measures not being passed in full it leaves Labor a buffer from which to draw to still honour their spending commitments. Quite elegant, really.

    LOL, that elegance went down really well with the voters didn’t it. You think you’re dampening the Liberals’ ridiculous claims on the economy, when in reality you’re conceding their ridiculous claim that a big surplus represents sound economic management. A surplus is money sucked out of the economy; a drain on economic activity. Not only is this the economics of rightwing idiots, it is also politically stupid, because the only people who would worried about whether Labor would run a surplus or not are the people who would never vote Labor under any circumstance. Bowen is a damned fool and so is whoever gave him that job.

  23. Lizzie

    Ozmericans all have a colonialist mindset.

    By that i mean interpreting local conditions through the history, language and culture of the superior “imperial” power.

    Just read Tristo’s posts on how he is ashamed that Australians haven’t yet destroyed all statues of explorers, governors etc. like they do in the US.

    He seems like Comrade Pol Pot in Cambodia wanting to start Australia again at year zero. Funnily, this never involves any real handing back the country to its original inhabitants, just feel good gestures imposing contemporary middle class fads on previous generations.

  24. Watermelon says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 4:50 pm

    Watermelon,

    What do you see as the ultimate goal for action on climate change?

    Limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

    Do you know what that means?

  25. Clive spent 70 million dollars bagging Labor
    The greens went up to Queensland and stomped all over their garden
    Murdoch went feral, he buys ink by the barrow load.
    Conservative churches; what was the story: abortion to term was labor policy.
    Real estate agents.
    Investment advisers.
    The ABC committing self harm.
    Last days; people actually took the blurry pictures on Facebook saying x wanted case against y.
    Death taxes.

    All pulling the cart downhill.

    And it is all Labors fault because the combined effort overcame; the cart is at the bottom of the hill broken.

    Labor should have pulled a little to the left, a little to the right, horses colour was wrong, bullshit and blather.

    Give me a break.

  26. Breaking news:

    Actor Geoffrey Rush will be awarded a total payout of nearly $2.9 million after winning his defamation case against The Daily Telegraph.

  27. Continuing my rant…..
    In relation to the great past ALP leaders and machine room thinkers such as my previously mentioned Barry Jones, this was what i feared would happen.
    Labor need to get a leader who does not use advisers! If you can’t passionately sell a message, then no one is buying. To sell a message (or anything for that matter) you must understand it and believe in it first. Did Bill not understand his policies? or not believe in them?
    Labor’s policy on franking credits and negative gearing need to be retained as they are good sound policies, just not sold well.
    I remember my frustration at hearing the increased tax line being handed out time after time with no rebuttal from Bill. Removing subsidies is not a tax and he needed to make that point clear.
    On Climate change, well where do you begin. You cannot pretend to be passionate about climate change mitigation and have a completely different view on mining within the Galilee Basin!
    Where was Bill’s understanding of the issue? why could he not have the courage to come out against the mine? does he not know that the Basin holds enough coal that if burnt will push the global temperature above the “magical” 2°c mark by its self?
    Where as Bob Hawke came out strong, passionate and unwavering against the Franklin Dam, Bill was non committal, evasive and unfortunately weak on the Adani issue. If he were to come out attacking the mine, yes the result would have been the same in QLD, but he would have cleaned up in other states.
    Rant over now 🙂

  28. frednk

    And it is all Labors fault because the combined effort overcame; the cart is at the bottom of the hill broken.

    Labor should have pulled a little to the left, a little to the right, horses colour was wrong, bullshit and blather.

    Give me a break.

    ___________________________________

    Yep. I’m astonished by how much head up arse bullshit parsing of everything is going on here.

  29. I like Tony Burke. But that sort of talk is the last thing Labor need to be engaging in at the moment. Bread and butter issues need to be the focus; cost of living, jobs, wages etc. Highlight every whinge people have with the government and keep a ruthless focus. Talk of green new deals etc is just handing ammunition to the Coalition.

  30. a r says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 4:58 pm

    Barney in Saigon @ #1483 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 4:57 pm

    Watermelon says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 4:50 pm

    Watermelon,

    What do you see as the ultimate goal for action on climate change?

    Limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

    Do you know what that means?

    We’ve already failed?

    No, not yet.

    I think Watermelon needs some thinking music! 🙂

  31. Watermelon,

    What do you see as the ultimate goal for action on climate change?

    Limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

    Do you know what that means?

    Yes. It means a disastrous change in the planet’s climate.
    But 3+ degrees is basically game over.

  32. People complaining about McKinsey and Company don’t seem to realise how similar they sound to people that moan about people who have been employed by a union or in the public sector, it is just silly when what that C.V shows is a diverse range of skill sets that are useful. It is also a form of class war but against those who have gone to university.

  33. The same forces that came after Labor this election will be emboldened by the result and will try and do the same again in every election. I am now convinced that after the loss on the 18th May election that only when the Australian people have felt fully the pain of the Lib/IPA agenda will they wake up and think.
    Until then, good luck trying to come up with a strategy to beat them. Spending $100m is nothing to these guys to protect billions. They will lie,cheat or do whatever it takes.

  34. “Watermelon,

    What do you see as the ultimate goal for action on climate change?”

    “Limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.”

    Then we have failed Watermelon, we are well on the way to 1.5°c now and it is well understood from studies such as the one published in the Geophysical Research Letters by B. H. Samset M. Sand C. J. Smith S. E. Bauer P. M. Forster J. S. Fuglestvedt S. Osprey C.‐F. Schleussner, that the increase in global temperatures associated with the removal of Aerosols and sulphates from the atmosphere when the burning of coal ends is in the order of 0.5°C.
    That’s without additional warming in the mean time and accelerated warming due to feedback systems that are already underway (such as the rapid disintegration of the arctic ice sheet). There is no way we are holding under 3°C and from there our ability to stop the feedback processes leading to runaway climate change have gone.
    Its is also worth mentioning again (as i did a while ago) the widely touted “2°c safe limit” has no foundation in science – none – it was a number plucked out of thin air by a F###ing economist! Nicholas Stern. There is absolutely no climate scientist who believes warming of 2°c is “safe”

  35. I think the Greens anti Adani convoy to Queensland mining areas was totally the wrong approach.

    However, why didn’t they seek sponsorship from this Melbourne company making/supplying electric touring coaches? Arriving in an electric coach would have presented a much better message. It would have also provided good publicity for the company.

    http://www.avass.com.au/metro-bus

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