Of swings and misses

The Coalition’s parliamentary majority looks secure, as the polling industry starts facing up to what went wrong.

The latest – or some of it at least:

• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.

• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.

• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.

• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,724 comments on “Of swings and misses”

  1. Mexicanbeemer

    “People complaining about McKinsey and Company don’t seem to realise how similar they sound to people that moan about people who have been employed by a union or in the public sector, it is just silly when what that C.V shows is a diverse range of skill sets that are useful. It is also a form of class war but against those who have gone to university.”

    None of these things, I love people who have gone to universities and I love private enterprise: probably more than any other poster on this forum.

    I just don’t like McKinsey and Company. And I’m not crazy about PWC, EY, Boston, KPMG and etc. either. Big consulting firms don’t do it for me. Call me old-fashioned, but I like people and businesses and other organisations that actually do stuff.

  2. On the 2 degree warning, or any warning at all, I suspect we’re going to have to roll the dice on geo-engineering at some point. Probably as a last ditch method.

    It’ll be interesting to see the reaction to that.

  3. meher baba

    The thing is that people who work in those places consider what they do to be work, and by all means dislike an organisation, there are plenty I don’t like from Telstra to the CBA but I wouldn’t hold that against someone who worked there at sometime unless they were a senior person responsible for what makes me dislike that organisation.

  4. Watermelon says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 5:11 pm

    Watermelon,

    What do you see as the ultimate goal for action on climate change?

    Limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

    Do you know what that means?

    Yes. It means a disastrous change in the planet’s climate.
    But 3+ degrees is basically game over.

    So, no, you don’t!

    It’s the target for the end of this century, so in no way can it be thought of as the ultimate goal.

    The reason for this is as I said before decarbonising Society is only the first step and global warming will continue after we have done this.

    The challenge after this is the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, so we can start to reduce the rate of warming.

    This is a much more complicated matter that requires functioning Societies and science to develop the methods to do so, which is why I made my point about the premature withdrawal of fossil fuels damaging Society.

  5. swamprat

    As I do not interpret everything in terms of USA, I tend to take phrases at face value. Probably makes me sound naive, but I find nothing more annoying than when pollies rush over to USA “to see how they do it”. It’s refreshing here to find references to other nations. 🙂

  6. a r

    And who’s the RWNJ in this case, Mr. Gandhi or whomever he’s losing to?

    That would be the current PM of India, Narendra Modi, known for being best buddies with a certain Gautam Adani.

  7. Matt31 @ #1490 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    I like Tony Burke. But that sort of talk is the last thing Labor need to be engaging in at the moment. Bread and butter issues need to be the focus; cost of living, jobs, wages etc. Highlight every whinge people have with the government and keep a ruthless focus. Talk of green new deals etc is just handing ammunition to the Coalition.

    Yes, just like the LNP. Product differentiation.

  8. I must agree with this. 😀

    @vanbadham

    Do not expect Scott Morrison to “mature into the role”.
    He think God picked him just the way he is.
    It’s gonna be a long three years.

  9. Turnbull would have won in a semi landslide although the phon primary vote would have been a bit higher.

    It was 49 -51 when they dumped him (which as we know was really 51 – 49) with the natural swing back to govt Labour would now be looking at a 47 -53 arse whipping if they had kept Turnbull.

    I think the hard right feared that is where things were heading and why they moved when they did.They were willing to risk losing to take control of the party and the political narrative, they rolled the dice and won.

  10. Then we have failed Watermelon…

    The IPCC may be too optimistic when they suggest that it may be possible to limit global heating to 2 degrees. Not to say that this is a “safe” level. But to even attempt to limit heating to this level means, at the minimum, no new fossil fuel projects, and a complete transition to renewable energy by the middle of this century. This is what I mean when I say that a 100% renewable target and a moratorium on all new fossil fuel projects is the only climate policy compatible with scientific evidence.

    Whether or not it is compatible with winning a majority in Australia’s HoR.

  11. TAKE A BOW, mainstream media. Your coverage was relentlessly superficial, your selection and commentary heavily biased. You studiously ignored the past six years’ record of train wrecks, extremism, incompetence, brutality and internal warring. You portrayed a one-man band, a slick sloganeer, as a viable political party and the most riven, vicious and incompetent rabble since Federation has clung to power.

    It is hardly a triumph, regaining minority government or the slimmest majority. The fact that the commentariat is portraying Scott Morrison as some kind of legendary hero is a measure of how low expectations for the Coalition have been and how desperate they are to keep their man in power.

    Labor’s core problem is that it abandoned its origins in 1983. Paul Keating likes to claim to have been the “radical centre” but that is rubbish. He and Hawke implemented the neoliberal agenda, which was certainly radical, but very Right-wing. There seems to be no one in the Parliamentary Labor Party who understands the need to break right away from neoliberalism, which clearly doesn’t work and get back to the party’s roots. So it stumbles along, always on the back foot, always captive to the Coalition’s framing.

    It remains to be seen how long a Morrison Government can last. Barnaby is a loose cannon who’s happy to pump the rivers dry. Peter Dutton has increased his vote and will lust after Morrison’s position. Dutton is the most dangerous man in Australia, already well along the path of turning us into a police surveillance state. He may be his own worst enemy, as stories are rife of incompetence and dysfunction in his monster Home Affairs department, but we must never underestimate the power of fear.

    Otherwise, the Coalition remains riven with deep ideological and personality conflicts. One can only hope it implodes before more deep damage is done to our faltering democracy, but don’t hold your breath.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/partisan-media-incoherent-labor-and-the-rabble-clings-to-power,12732#.XOZPk1hLjGA.twitter

  12. It’s the target for the end of this century, so in no way can it be thought of as the ultimate goal.

    The reason for this is as I said before decarbonising Society is only the first step and global warming will continue after we have done this.

    The challenge after this is the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, so we can start to reduce the rate of warming.

    This is a much more complicated matter that requires functioning Societies and science to develop the methods to do so, which is why I made my point about the premature withdrawal of fossil fuels damaging Society.

    How can these targets be “premature” if they are literally the only possible way to limit the extent of warming to 2 degrees by the end of the century?

    You can have a functioning society running at 100% renewable energy but you cannot have a functioning society running at 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

    Are you saying you can keep pumping the atmosphere full of greenhouse gases for the next several decades, and this cheap fossil energy will power a functioning society while it invents a magical carbon vacuum cleaner that will “decarbonize” the atmosphere and clean up the damage from all the fossil fuel projects you plan to approve in the meantime?

  13. I am very tired of seeing the pic of Morrison “raising his arm to God”. It is far too reminiscent, for me, of a Nazi salute.

  14. @Lucky Creed

    I believe Labor would have won if Turnbull was still Prime Minister, Scott Morrison is definitely superior campaigner to Turnbull. Also MP’s such as George Christensen and Peter Dutton (he admitted that) would have been defeated as well.

  15. “The kind of defeatist attitude on display here is partly what got Labor in the mess it’s in currently.”…

    The attitude of the ALP at this and the previous federal election campaigns wasn’t “defeatist” at all.

  16. “I am making a warning that the Australian Labor Party cannot sit on the fence when it comes to climate change.”… The ALP has never sat on the fence on climate change. In fact, their climate change policies are not only far more ambitious than those of the Coalition, but above all are far more credible than those of the Greens.
    The ALP as “fence-sitter” on climate change is a Greens’ myth. But it’s understandable, the day they admit that the ALP has more credible policies on a central Greens issue such as climate change, than the Greens themselves have, the Greens will be finished.

  17. “I believe Labor would have won if Turnbull was still Prime Minister”…
    Unlikely. The Coalition won thanks to Hanson’s and Palmer’s preferences especially in Queensland. Had Turnbull told everybody not to make deals with Hanson and Palmer, Queenslanders would have rebelled and gone their own way. That alone would have been enough to win the election.

  18. Of all the people with their head in their hands wanting to kick themselves, has anyone checked in with Kelly (i want more time with my family) O’Dwyer and to a lesser extent Pyne and Laundy?

    All made their decisions on the assumption of an electoral pasting…. Kerry especially would prob have been up for a v snr cabinet post now.

    Do we think Dutton retains his home affairs portfolio or is ScoMo brave enough to shift him… something like Defence?

  19. lizzie

    ‘It remains to be seen how long a Morrison Government can last.’

    Moot point. The Greens will be backing them up at the next election by wedging Labor, harrassing Albanese, and by, as Bandt put it, engaging in ‘brutal warfare’ against Labor.

    They are like the Murdoch MSM: they spend the bulk of their time attacking Labor.

  20. ‘sonar says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 5:17 pm

    The same forces that came after Labor this election will be emboldened by the result and will try and do the same again in every election.’

    The Greens are coming after Labor all the time. The fools do not realize they are giving succour to the Liberals and the Nationals by jointly attacking Labor. Nothing new in that.

  21. Tristo We agree to disagree. 51 -49 nine months out from an election, show me any federal opposition that has won from that position.

    On historical precedent Labor never really had a big enough lead, at any time during this term, the best they ever got to was briefly touching 55 – 45.

    Past federal oppositions that have gone onto wi have shot out to near 60-40 leads for extended periods of time before the inevitable business end of the electoral cycle tightening.I reckon labor would have been smashed.

  22. Alpo @ #1521 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    “The kind of defeatist attitude on display here is partly what got Labor in the mess it’s in currently.”…

    The attitude of the ALP at this and the previous federal election campaigns wasn’t “defeatist” at all.

    Defeatist in the sense of always being in the back foot and rarely challenging the LNP and MSM memes.
    Allowing the narrative of the LNP being the better economic managers to take hold etc etc,

  23. The Greens should be a bit cautious because Albo has shown an ability to match and beat the Greens in what is seen by many as their natural turf, and Albo will now have a stronger hand as ALP party leader. Adani probably wont be an issue at the next poll and while climate change will remain one but the next election isn’t going to be fought on the Greens strong points.

  24. Alpo @ #1519 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    “The kind of defeatist attitude on display here is partly what got Labor in the mess it’s in currently.”…

    The attitude of the ALP at this and the previous federal election campaigns wasn’t “defeatist” at all.

    It was arrogant. They thought they had it in the bag (because all the polls said so). To the extent that they felt like they could sit on the fence on the coal/Adani issue, and just take the hit on the tax scare-campaign, and never get their hands dirty slinging any mud back at the Coalition.

    And it also had shades of paranoia. As with the waving through of the idiotic encryption legislation, and the amendments to Medivac, and the immediate pledge to match Morrison’s home-loan guarantee. To say nothing about boats/refugee policy.

    Altogether it’s an interesting mix of “we’re sure we’re going to win” and “we’re terrified that we might lose”.

  25. In any event, bold policy is still the way to go.

    Just that in this election it wasn’t quite bold enough in the right areas, and sold very badly.

  26. Interesting analysis from Danielle Wood on where the election was lost:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/23/self-interest-didnt-swing-the-election-results-but-the-scare-campaign-did

    “The result is almost paradoxical. Labor wanted to scale back tax concessions for the “top end of town” and more to support the less-well-off through investments in social services. But the top end of town embraced them (or at least rejected their opponents) and the people who stood to benefit most instead embraced the Coalition, One Nation and the United Australia party.

    So if self-interest didn’t swing the vote, what did?

    Labor’s plan was bold, and bold is easy to portray as scary. Clive Palmer spent a fair chunk of his reported $60m doing just that. Real estate agents with plenty to lose from the proposals used heavy-handed tactics to frighten renters into thinking that they would be the ultimate losers from the negative gearing changes. And among the Coalition’s most effective lines was that “Labor can’t manage money so they’ll come after yours.”

    Scare campaigns are not new in politics. But a scattergun message from Labor and an increasingly cynical electorate helped this one hit the target.”

    Still a way to go before the loss is fully accounted for. I expect the scare campaign about franking credits will run into the next election. May be it would be better for Labor to keep the reforms and focus their messaging.

  27. Sky’s David Speers set to take over as ABC Insiders host
    Could he be scheduled to replace all ABC journalists / presenters ?

  28. According to Ten news at 5, Morrison has gone to Quuensland to thank those who supported the NLP.

    Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, Fonterra is closing a milk processing factory in regional Victoria. The company is blaming reduced milk supplies due to what they describe as the new norm of drought.

    Will Morrison care and visit the workers losing their jobs?

    Nearly 100 Victorians will lose their jobs when dairy giant Fonterra shuts its factory in the state’s southwest, blaming drought and low milk supply.

    The New Zealand-based processor says the plant at Dennington, which opened in 1911, is no longer viable and its 98 workers will be out of a job later this year.

    “This is not a one-off for this season, it’s the new norm for the Australian dairy industry and we need to adapt,” Fonterra boss Miles Hurrell said in a statement on Thursday.

    <a href="Nearly 100 Victorians will lose their jobs when dairy giant Fonterra shuts its factory in the state's southwest, blaming drought and low milk supply.

    The New Zealand-based processor says the plant at Dennington, which opened in 1911, is no longer viable and its 98 workers will be out of a job later this year.

    "This is not a one-off for this season, it's the new norm for the Australian dairy industry and we need to adapt," Fonterra boss Miles Hurrell said in a statement on Thursday.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6161633/nearly-100-jobs-to-go-in-vic-dairy-closure/?cs=14231

  29. Some Liberal type on the Drum tonight referred to Morrison’s ‘thumping great majority’.
    Craig Emerson sitting at the same desk who spoke after the Liberal type did not immediately correct the record.
    Labor never learns.
    It’s in their DNA.

  30. Watermelon says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 5:56 pm

    It’s the target for the end of this century, so in no way can it be thought of as the ultimate goal.

    The reason for this is as I said before decarbonising Society is only the first step and global warming will continue after we have done this.

    The challenge after this is the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, so we can start to reduce the rate of warming.

    This is a much more complicated matter that requires functioning Societies and science to develop the methods to do so, which is why I made my point about the premature withdrawal of fossil fuels damaging Society.

    How can these targets be “premature” if they are literally the only possible way to limit the extent of warming to 2 degrees by the end of the century?

    Comprehension please.
    I was talking about the premature removal of fossil fuels before we had the capacity to replace them with renewable sources, as you were suggesting, nothing about targets.

    You can have a functioning society running at 100% renewable energy but you cannot have a functioning society running at 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

    Where did I suggest otherwise?

    Are you saying you can keep pumping the atmosphere full of greenhouse gases for the next several decades, and this cheap fossil energy will power a functioning society while it invents a magical carbon vacuum cleaner that will “decarbonize” the atmosphere and clean up the damage from all the fossil fuel projects you plan to approve in the meantime?

    You seem to think that we will maintain the current level of emissions, but as more renewables and storage comes on line fossil fuels will become less economical and will be phased out, so towards the end our emissions will be much lower than today’s figures.

    Well you better hope we can invent some sort of “magic carbon vacuum cleaner,” because without one global warming will continue until such time as the Earth can naturally deal with it which is probably of the order of thousands to tens of thousands of years.

  31. Some Liberal type on the Drum tonight referred to Morrison’s ‘thumping great majority’.
    Craig Emerson sitting at the same desk who spoke after the Liberal type did not immediately correct the record.
    ____
    Mundo
    But in effect , given the leaning of the cross bench, it really is.

  32. Other contenders for Insiders had included ABC News Breakfast co-host Michael Rowland, RN Breakfast host Fran Kelly and RN Drive host Patricia Karvelas.

    Insiders is one of a number of high-profile programs where positions have been vacant, following the resignation of ABC veterans Cassidy, Q&A host Tony Jones and radio broadcaster Jon Faine.

    A new host for Q&A is still undecided.

    How come Michael stuffed shirt Rowland is considered for so many roles?

  33. Too cute BK
    You completely miss my point.
    Let the Liberal type argue why he thinks it’s a ‘thumping majority’
    If you let a little bit of bullshit through the really big turds aren’t far behind.

  34. They also seem to be agreeing that Morrison is a “good bloke” who has an opportunity to do great things for Indigenous Australia. (Not Emerson!)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *