Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
Madcyril
Bummer. We need an attack dog, not a policy wonk responsible for much of the failed compaign. He’s always been ambitious (he was part of the secret Rudd push against Gillard, and he gained Treasurer from that).
‘But his efforts to do so may be blocked by a bureaucratic timeline beyond his control.’
And which, apparently, no one else on the planet realised up until today.
Victoria.
Yes. Exactly. Part of the cause for that is what we are saw with Adani (Cat note the past tense). Trying to pretend you could support Adani in Queensland and oppose it in Victoria was a killer regarding gaining votes but also made it harder to counter the death duties retiree tax lines on credibility.
I think Albanese will be a good leader for Labor because he can do this while not letting the LNP trap Labor into opposing action on climate change because of mine workers.
I tell you what, if the caucus votes for Bowen in greater numbers than the membership votes for Albo, they deserve oblivion.
zoomster
But … miracle man. 😆
The way I am feeling at moment, I don’t know who are the best team to lead the Labor party and hold Morrison and Co to account.
Just remember all the dubious conduct that surrounded, Dutton, BJoyce, ATaylor, Christensen, etc. Did Labor lay a glove on any of them?
Labor should not choose Bowen as its leader.
I’ve never thought there was any sense in either party sitting before the end of June if they won government. There’s no rush to sit again – and the Government don’t have any actual legislative program to deal with anyway.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 8:48 am
Briefly
You have said exactly the same before the election with your lib kin crap.
That worked sooooooo well for you.
What worked well was the campaign against Labor in Queensland. You should have a look at the election results. They’re informative. They show that Labor was smashed by the campaigns against them…campaigns that included the stunt politics staged by the Lib-kin, the Lib-Libs, the Lib-Nats…the whole lot.
The voters of Queensland have been comprehensively sold on the idea that Labor are opposed to their economic interests. The Lib-kin helped to foster the idea. Green-tinted language used by Labor meant that Labor really campaigned against itself in Queensland too.
What a total fuck up. Kevin Rudd himself could not have done a better job of wrecking Labor in a resource-reliant State.
As for you, guytaur, you clearly have NFI.
Guytaur
The fibs are in power. Adani will proceed as planned. Unless beaurocratic red tape hinders it. Labor will not be doing a thing about it. This ship has sailed.
Victoria
You’re right. They got away with everything.
It has to be Albo and Chalmers. Dreyfus would also be good but a Queenslander is probably required.
Victoria
Don’t ignore the Adani lesson by saying that ship has sailed. Those that don’t learn from mistakes repeat them.
Edit: labor must learn to say Greenpeace and ex leaders of the Greens do not speak for them when a convoy like stunt happens next time. Stop letting the LNP say Labor is responsible for Green actions.
Lol Bowen running. Imagine three years of him getting a question about how well he slept last night and using 12,000 words blurted out in 35 seconds to answer it. Bloke is the least effective communicator in parliament. From any side. Including Katter.
You gotta ask why would Clive palmer spend upwards of 60 million dollars to not get a seat at all.
Cos the objective was to harvest votes to the LNP. What was the deal. To ensure the mining projects as planned, proceed.
That’s how you buy an election to achieve a vested outcome.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:08 am
Guytaur
The fibs are in power. Adani will proceed as planned. Unless beaurocratic red tape hinders it. Labor will not be doing a thing about it. This ship has sailed.
And if the Galilee mines are developed, the Lib-kin will use them to try to wedge Labor for ever and a day. They will rejoice the day the first track is laid.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/21/crossbenchers-will-not-support-anti-corruption-body-unless-its-powers-are-boosted?CMP=share_btn_tw
Bowen is a nice enough bloke, but a future PM he is not.
Damn.
Bowen has confirmed he is running.
@briefly
I have no doubt that the mines will be developed depending on the outcome of the 2020 Queensland state election at the latest. If Clive Palmer does not get the subsides from the Federal Government for his proposed mines in the Galilee basin, then he will spend a lot of cash in the Queensland state election, to ensure the defeat of the Palaszczuk government.
Despite not getting a seat in the Senate, Clive Palmer has benefited greatly from spending $60 million in this election. It might have helped the Coalition win a majority in the House of Representatives. Plus there must have a price that the Morrison government needed to pay for the preference deal with the United Australia Party.
“Bummer. We need an attack dog, not a policy wonk responsible for much of the failed compaign. He’s always been ambitious (he was part of the secret Rudd push against Gillard, and he gained Treasurer from that).”
lizzie
Agreed, I’m not a Bowen fan at all.
Lizzie
Of course they did.
I know you are not at all interested in what is going on in the US and the UK, and have been frustrated by those of us who have been very focussed on it over time. It is so pertinent to what has happened in our own backyard.
My frustrations with how Labor have responded to the corruption in plain sight, has given me no confidence at all.
As I said, they need to get in the game or go home. It’s as simple as that.
[‘The public service pensions are much more generous than accumulation super funds: eg they are indexed for inflation.’]
I don’t know about the public service but my pension is indexed twice yearly at either the CPI or average male weekly earnings – whichever is the greater. Moreover, at age 36 I was permitted to collect a lump sum, and receive a reduced pension thereafter, which I’ve been in receipt of for 35 years. Quite a generous scheme compared to others.
Oh dear. Here’s hoping for Albanese.
Tristo
I think you’re correct. Who cares about the reef, birds or water when there’s a profit for Clive? Except, of course, that he’s not exactly a financial genius and will probably muck this up too.
“Who on earth is Jim Chalmers?”
– Everyone in Australia
Tristo says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:16 am
@briefly
I have no doubt that the mines will be developed depending on the outcome of the 2020 Queensland state election at the latest. If Clive Palmer does not get the subsides from the Federal Government for his proposed mines in the Galilee basin, then he will spend a lot of cash in the Queensland state election, to ensure the defeat of the Palaszczuk government.
I reckon you’re right.
Australia’s dependence on coal production is similar to heroin producing countries. Although it is destroying the world, there is no option to replace it, unless they switch to Uranium.
A vast beautiful expanse of landmass inhabited by pizza eaters, forever looking over their shoulders worrying if they are getting more than their fare share of cheese, cheap baloney and extra crust.
What a complete “ball’s up” in an infinitely blessed part of the world, electing a government so unrepresentative of collective good.
False advertising, truth in advertising, steak knives for all in a country where half the population can’t afford steak and continue to maintain by voting for an ever increasingly collection of policy directed against their best interests.
Hi-lux, hi-viz, hi-octane and hi-maintenance.
For what it’s worth, Bill Shorten did a fantastic job during the last number of years, protecting people from their own irrascibility caused by their transient stupidity.
Get me another pizza ya mug! With more topping!
Queensland is where elections are won and lost. Accordingly, it would make sense to have banana bender as either leader or deputy. To that end, Jim Chalmers fits the bill.
Peter Brent made a bet that Scott Morrison and Chris Bowen would be leaders of the major parties at this election.
Also he had doubts on Labor winning this election as well. Could Chris Bowen win this leadership election through the support of the caucus and Albanese lose again. So I am betting on Chris Bowen winning this leadership election.
“Who on earth is Jim Chalmers?” A goofy looking guy
Pretty sad that of the leadership aspirants I’m hoping for Chalmers to win even though I don’t know who he is or anything about him.
“Who on earth is Jim Chalmers?”
I honestly have no idea what he looks like. Still, maybe that’s a plus after everything that has just happened.
Victoria
I don’t mind a weekly overview of Trump or Brexit, but it was the daily bulletins about nothing much that irritated me. 🙂
Victoria.
Labor has suffered the damage. Queensland Labor has power it can shut Adani down. Make it black and white.
By doing that Labor can offer transition plans for workers so they are not left high and dry. Otherwise Palmer and the climate deniers win. Being in government gives Labor the power. Use it to set Labor’s agenda. Not the Greens not the LNP but Labor’s.
Yes that means even if you have to do a Daniel Andrews and pay Adani go away money.
we need to remember how relentless the fibs were in attacking JGillard as well as KRudd and BShorten as leaders.
Utegate, verandah Renovation, donation to get up as if they were all crimes that Labor had committed.
Yet we have serious dubious expenditures that total 100s of millions of dollars in plain sight. relentless questions and demanding answers should be the strategy going forward.
Even if the msm don’t support Labor. The sound bites need to filter out and pressure put to bear.
Morrison, Frydenberg, Joyce, Taylor and the rest of this motley crew need to answer basic and fundamental questions.
For goodness sake they demanded Gillard do a full press conference to explain where a 20,000 verandah Reno came from 20 years before she entered parliament.
Labor needs to change their modus operandi quick smart
Here’s hoping for Bill Shorten and the good array of policy mix that was available to implement and this time we’ll support you without distraction and standbup to the bullying from both corporate Australia and their weapon of choice, the right dominant MSM.
By election day voters should have, just like Pavlov’s Dog, been conditioned into thinking of one word starting with C when water and the environment generally was mentioned. That word is Corruption, specifically LNP Corruption. I’d really like to know why Labor’s strategy was to ignore that issue as a weapon. Such an attack would have resonated and could have then been extended to other policy areas once it took root.
People here are tossing around suggestions for three word slogans to run over the next election cycle. If Corruption isn’t one of those words then Labor IMO might as well pack up their tents and leave the battlefield.
William: do you get a kick out of Nath’s incessant obsession with Bill Shorten?
I’m sorry if I’m transgressing conventions about commenting on the behaviour of other posters. You can moderate this if you think it appropriate.
The election is over.
But the man, Nath, can’t help himself and is carrying on with this pathological vendetta. Have you ever cautioned him about it. His behaviour plays right into the Coalition’s decade-long campaign to demonize Bill Shorten and I suppose he recognizes that. And at least from my perspective it has worked a treat.
Isn’t it about time that he was told the shut up on that subject and move on. That is if he has any other thoughts that go beyond one-liners about Shorten’s untrustworthiness and the shortcomings of the Labor Party.
Nath’s a great example of a sore winner. And someone pushing the envelope of free speech. I’m sure like trolls. he is enjoying my discomfort and is oblivious to criticism and self-awareness.
But I forget, he makes donations to help African children, his only claim for what he has achieved in life. He suggests that that makes him qualified to make judgements about the character of people like Shorten who actually go out there and try to help their fellow citizens.
I’d like to know what Nath’s been doing for the last six years while Shorten has devoted his energies to unifying his Party and trying to make Australia a better place. That is, besides just sitting in front of a computer all day making snide observations. He also seems to enjoy belittling other posters who also go out there and work for change.
I know I’m not the only one who feels this way. And in saying this I hope I am not descending to his level. I try to make posts that are interesting and relevant. I’m sorry I can’t boil everything down to a couple of lines like Nath.
I’m wondering how many subscribers you’ve lost because of single issue posters like him. I’m almost out the door.
——————————–
nath says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 7:35 pm
Tristo
says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 7:31 pm
@Boerwar
I don’t believe Albanese is going to get the same sort of treatment as Shorten did. Albanese just is not going to be much of a threat to their interests as Shorten was.
_____________________________________
People may have disliked Abbott but he was not considered ‘untrustworthy’. It’s the most important category in leader attributes. Not being liked is one thing, not being liked and not trusted is another thing completely.
Tom Hawkins
Yes.
Joel Fitzgibbon is the one Labor who can take any attack to the Libs and Nats ,Joel Fitzgibbon will be extremely aggressive on the lIbs/ and Nats dodgy deal , and all of the policies which the Morrison government will try to introduce. Under Fitzgibbon Labor could not let legislation go through as they did in previous parliament .
I am confident Joel Fitzgibbon is the one Labor needs to lead them with aggression
briefly,
Not my mother’s experience of him when she was working at a western Sydney council. Said he’s a proper arsehole. Or perhaps more appropriately, behaved like one.
Lizzie
I get that.
As far as I am concerned, what happened and is continuing to happen in US and UK are very consequential and an important crossroad to the future of democracy around the world. So I will continue to be totally absorbed in it. Although these past weeks I have been very occupied with other mundane stuff.
Guytaur
Labor will not stop Adani. Get it through your head
Probably right.
“BOZ I’m balanced
@pftravers77
Adani have insisted on employing mainly their own workforce from India and as for the engineering and manufacturing industries in the surrounding areas —-forget any contracts
All spare parts will be brought from and repaired in India,
Rumoured to employ only about 50 aussies”
Madcyril @ #146 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 9:00 am
Oh well…might have to push my prediction of a new Labor government out to 2025.
I think I will vote for Albo. Bowen would be a terrible pick. I LOL’ed when I learned he might be running.
He was part of the leadership team that should wear some responsibility over poor outcome. Need a political brawler not a policy wonk.
Tom Hawkins
It frustrated me to no end that Labor failed every day get out in front and ask that Morrison and co answer these fundamental questions about the Waterbuy back etc
Victoria @ #191 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 9:29 am
Labor already has, because of the bird thing. Good on QLD state Labor.
a r
For now.