Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
Thanks BK. On Labor leadership, I hope Bowen does not win. This is not meant meanly or a left/right thing. A treasurer must not only run economic policy but be able to sell it. Bowen never really could sell it. He did not campaign well; Shorten and Chalmers were better. Labor needs somebody who can campaign as well as Morrison. The leader should be either Albo or Chalmers. Kristina Keneally was also consistently good in campaigning, as was Penny Wong.
Have a good day all.
Pretty easy to ask a pollster:
(a) were any of your raw figures say the Coalition primary was 40% plus and TPP 50% plus;
(b) were they adjusted downwards?
Maiden, having had the people to pose the questions, instead wandered off on the conflict tangent which I do not really understand.
Hmm.
We now how often Abbott has put his foot in it and has never delivered fr his much touted ‘favourite’ indigenous. This article s a load of codswallop.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6135187/government-urged-to-make-use-of-abbotts-immense-talents/?cs=14350
Meher baba it does your cause no good to say 2,000,000 affected when it’s really 200,000. And we know that 160,000 of those receive under $5000 in franking credit refunds a year.
The average (mean) franking credit cash refund is over $244,000 and the hit to economy is expected to rise from $5bn now to $9bn in 3 years time
So, bottom line, Scott Morrison just had an 8 month campaign, which he was very successful at. Now, he has 3 years of governing to do and let’s see how he handles that. Going by his time as Treasurer I don’t think it will be gold standard.
billie @ #104 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:13 am
Your final point is the key point which has been studiously ignored by meher baba over pages of screeds.
@confessions
I don’t think he will last as PM, cross bench already saying worker harder ya big oath
Interesting that the government is blaming the bureaucracy for the tax cut delay.
Well, Scott decided to call the election for May 18 (could have called it earlier ) and therefore he would have known the timelines to implement this.
This will enable the budget to go back into surplus for 2019/2020.
He is a cunning fox.
@mumbletwits (aka Peter Brent).
This, adopting the Coalition’s “tax” terminology seems a multiple fail across the ABC.
It’s not a fail it’s on purpose.
I can’t wait for ABC to change their banner. Such a bummer going there at the moment.
lizzie:
What esp annoyed me about TJones last night was he simply accepted the AJones and Pyne narrative of ‘retiree tax’ and Scotty to have at least 2 terms. The former is an outright lie, whereas the latter is not even guaranteed in the slightest. And then he talked over Chalmers when he tried to set things straight.
Socrates
There is no evidence that Keneally has been effective as a campaigner.
The ALP has invested a lot in getting Keneally into Parliament. She now has to be allocated a very important shadow ministry to prove that the investment is worthwhile.
billie: “Meher baba it does your cause no good to say 2,000,000 affected when it’s really 200,000. And we know that 160,000 of those receive under $5000 in franking credit refunds a year.
The average (mean) franking credit cash refund is over $244,000 and the hit to economy is expected to rise from $5bn now to $9bn in 3 years time”
I have no idea where you are getting your figures from, but mine come from the Labor Party. The initial Labor announcement on franking credits said that 8 per cent of taxpayers would be affected. This equates to 1.17 million people. Then Labor exempted pensioners and part-pensioners, of whom they said there were 300,000. That makes 817,000 people affected.
On top of that, we have people paying the top marginal rate of tax, of whom I believe there are 200,000 or so. Then we have rental property investors, of whom there are several hundred thousand more. And people who work in real estate, stockbroking and financial advising. So, by my count, we’re getting towards 1.5 million. And then we have their spouses and other close family. That’s how I get to 2 million.
And I’d go further. There are lots of aspirational voters who working as contractors or in other non-unionised roles, and working hard and saving hard. They’re not directly affected by any of the tax package, but they aspire to becoming asset owners and self-funded retirees.
But it wouldn’t be hard to convince these people that Labor’s implicit message was : you can save as hard as you like, put your money in a super fund, buy some shares, look at investing in some rental housing, and you’d be a bit of an idiot, because we’re going to come and take as much of it off you as we think we can get away with. And this is only the first dip: don’t worry, we’ll keep coming back for more, again and again. And where do you think we are going to put it? We’re going to use it to help our own core constituency: funding pay rises for unionised workers, large numbers of additional public sector jobs and, most likely, increases in payments for welfare recipients. Oh, and into the government’s budget bottom line: something that will really rock the socks of this constituency (not).
Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, it’s incredibly bad politics.
And, if fixing the hole from the franking credit was the main goal, then a grandfathered policy would have done the job very nicely indeed, and caused zero political pain.
Let’s stop trying to pretend that stupid is smart. It’s a waste of time.
Good Morning
I am hoping that Mr Albanese wins the leadership ballot.
Listening to the coal miners lost Labor the election. I say that because that’s why Labor had the halfway approach on the symbolic Adani. Do not fall for the its all the coal miners that win it for the LNP lines coming out.
It’s to buy the LNP line that offers false hope. After six years of attacking Labor on renewables now the LNP is talking renewables.
Same tactics and logic of voting for on shore processing over the Malaysia solution.
Remember not all states are coal. The LNP is aiming to lock Labor into supporting a dying industry. Labor has to reject this and be willing to talk Post coal. No matter what else you think. Paul Keating is not stupid. He was very clear on that ABC interview on coal. He told the truth.
Labor has to have a solution for poor people. Labor has to call out the lies.
To do this Labor has to ignore the media. Labor has to back moves like truth in political advertising laws. Labor has to call out lies and yes that includes with advertising.
One way for Labor to kill dead one lie. Openly oppose privatisation and go the full way and promise price controls on electricity prices by nationalising the power companies. Labor can then guarantee lower power prices. That helps poor people the most.
Look at those maps William linked to. Even in the cities poor people voted LNP. In Sydney and Melbourne that was nothing to do with coal mining.
zoidlord: “This, adopting the Coalition’s “tax” terminology seems a multiple fail across the ABC.”
FWIW, the opening sentence of Labor’s first press release on dividend imputation credits read as follows:
“A Shorten Labor Government will make the tax system fairer by closing down a concession that gives cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits.”
So Labor tied it to the tax system from the outset. You can’t really blame the ABC.
For all those ALP supporters out there:
“I had to really tackle the hope versus hopelessness paradigm. To sum it up, upfront, I quote Vaclav Havel who said, “Hope is not the conviction that something will turn out well but the certainty that something is worth doing no matter how it turns out.” ”
This applies to politics as well as climate change.
https://theintercept.com/2019/05/04/climate-change-book-end-of-ice/
Confessions @ #110 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:22 am
‘he talked over Chalmers’
This namby pamby shit has to stop. Chalmers needs to be sat in front of loops of Bob Hawke setting an interviewer/reporter straight to see how it’s done. Make him watch for a couple of hours, once a week.
guytaur,
Matt Canavan has already had the t-shirt printed: ‘Start Adani’. So that ship has well and truly sailed. Also, you may not have noticed but Labor aren’t in government, the Coalition is and they will start on the train line in Queensland as quickly as possible to open up the area, because ‘Jobs’. That’s what the people up there voted for and that’s what they will get.
Your harping on endlessly about what Labor should do about Adani is just a pointless waste of time now. Move on. Be sensible for once. Inner City types like yourself and Greens voters aren’t the ones Labor needs to win back in order to form a government. They now need to do sophisticated nuanced work that takes the on-the-ground reality into account and then explain it really well, in comprehensible soundbites to the sort of people who wouldn’t shake Bill Shorten’s hand. Yet again another handshake that lost an election for Labor. You will always have your causes du jour, guytaur, and, noble as they are they aren’t worth a hill of beans to a Labor Party that isn’t in government.
Zoidlord @ #106 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:17 am
He’ll last all the way to the next election.
He’s a formidable fcker.
And he’s proved it.
Albo might possibly make a good attack dog, but I’m hearing a hint of reconciliation in his tone which is dangerous. Give ScoMo an inch and he’ll take 1.6 km.
Labor just need to dump the policy entirely and move on. There’s no point in clinging to any of it regardless of the merits. It can be looked at again in another couple of terms if the political climate suits.
Another thing is they shouldn’t pick policies with obvious losers that they won’t be able to pass anyway. Why open yourself up to attack on something you won’t be able to achieve – and from Opposition? Doing this from government is slightly different, but still something governments don’t tend to do because retaining government is more important than any single policy.
Mundo
Yes. Very famous footage of Hawke saying to Richard Carlton “I thought you would have done better than that”.
I hate it as a viewer but politically Labor has to be rude and obnoxious on those shows to get their point across. The LNP do it every time.
mundo
Not a bad idea. 🙂
Keating did during this campaign what he always did when in office ….he put the pleasure taken from the sound of his own voice, his love for a headline, ahead of the sensitivities of the electorate. He comes across as a condescending smart-arse. Fuck him. He led Labor to one of its worst defeats. It’s quite obvious why.
Cat
You have been wrong. Learn to listen. Remember I know Albanese is no friend to the Greens. If you view my comments as a Green view and dismiss them because of that you have learnt nothing.
@meher baba
You are still not getting it, abc is purposely lying.
Labor is correct and clear.
Morning all
Have lots on, so not sure where things are at.
The Labor leadership is not so easy to figure out.
Labor failed to counter the likes of Clive Palmer and Morrison.
They effectively combined to buy this election result, and whilst I believe Labor did not have the financial resources, they surely could have put themselves front and centre to counter the lies
My personal observation of Labor’s campaign, was that it was shit.
I was not confident at all and my inner voice was right as usual.
Labor was so much better in 2016.
Mundo
Morrison is Trump lite. So in order to wear him down, you need to go at him day in day out. Do Labor have it in them. What I have seen so far. The answer is no.
Mines in the Galilee will probably get the go ahead. Whether there will be any public funding is another matter. If the mines are built, the Lib-kin will be thrilled. They will use them to campaign against Labor forever and a day.
And I am still scratching my head as to why Labor did not go hard on the water buy backs and the Murray darling disaster.
As well as the Great Barrier Reef money going to friends of the fiberals.
Seriously. Labor need to get with the program or go home.
Briefly
You have said exactly the same before the election with your lib kin crap.
That worked sooooooo well for you.
Meher baba
Josh Frydenberg the Teasurer said that Labors franking credits refund policy would cost every taxpayer $1200. I just multiplied 1200 X 16000000 then divided by 200,000 and cam eup with average (mean) of 244000
Itep
No. We’ve had the pain. What adjustments should be made should be where the savings are spent – rather than going for incredibly big surpluses (which I always see as code for ‘collecting more money than we need to’) commit to big spending on worthwhile causes.
The election seems to have been lost in the states which see action on climate change as a threat. Franking credits and negative gearing might have got Labor over the line in a few southern marginals, but this would not have helped one bit in QLD or WA. Retaining Bass or Braddon doesn’t help when you’re losing seats in Queensland.
Spending the money you’ve raised from wealthy retirees who live in Bass or Braddon on reassuring workers in Queensland, on the other hand, can gain a bag of seats and government.
meher writes from a Tasmanian perspective. Tasmania is increasingly becoming the retirement village for Victoria, and this is particularly true for wealthier retirees. So his comments are reflective of that environment.
What he says may well be the key to why seats were lost in Tasmania, but listening to it won’t solve the problem.
Ifonly: “Tax records show that 5 and a half million people had incomes below $37k (10% received some form of pension). Of those 5.5 million, 1.1 million received franking credits. Half of those 1.1 million were under 65.”
Good work, thanks. These figures seem to correspond to those Labor used.
Billie: I think your figure of 200,000 only includes people with SMSFs. But there seem to be another 900,000 or so others.
The franking credits needed to be explained in a sound bite.
I did not see one advertisement to counter what the fiberals were advertising. Every day I saw countless ads of the bill we can’t afford.
And as was mentioned by my contacts who are on Facebook, the countless negative and false memes that did the rounds were not being countered at all.
You would think labor would have learnt from what happened in the US and Brexit shit shows.
It has been very disappointing to say the least.
Victoria.
It’s a copy of a cheesy stunt but Labor should do some debt trucks. Starting on the first day for the new leader.
Also pick a policy that you can use a three word slogan for that helps the poor. That is the blue collar low income workers. Then stick to it. For the whole three years.
I would love to see an analysis of the pre-poll voting vs the election day ones vs postal vots.
I predict Labor will drop the whole Franking Credits policy as soon as they can and will never mention it again.
c@tmomma: “Your final point is the key point which has been studiously ignored by meher baba over pages of screeds.”
Not ignored by me at all: I agree it’s a big problem. But I’ve said again and again that Labor could have introduced this measure, without fuss, on any Budget night after they had achieved government, so long as they grandfathered all existing shareholdings. This would have immediately reversed the upward trend in expenditure on this concession, and led to a gradual dwindling away.
In other words, just like Keating did when he introduced CGT. Or what Labor proposed to do with its changes to negative gearing and CGT. Not difficult.
Victoria @ #130 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:48 am
or open a sandwich shop.
Great work from William with his
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2019/Results.htm
and
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
I have had to do my own astrology consultation this morning and now report that all is well
♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋
So there’s the answer – float above the chaos. 🎈🎈🎈🎈
@C@tmomma
I agree with your assessment about Scott Morrison, however I get a feeling he will be around for quite while. Because for various reasons I am writing in 2025 when an another Progressive government will take power. I don’t know if such a government be a Labor, Green or even a New Party all together. That is why I am hesitant at the moment to join a Progressive political party, since I don’t have an idea which party will form the next Progressive government.
Guytaur
Labor may have been ready to govern and have a unified team. But they failed on the metrics that count.
We all were bombarded for months and months by Clive Palmer and his bullshit propaganda. Of course people like me in Melbourne couldn’t wait to see the back of this pollution in our faces 24/7. But it helped harvest votes to the LNP were it counted.
What did Labor do to counter this? Did Labor seriously think that the electorate in parts of Qld were going to think through this on their own. They needed to hear a counter argument.
mundo
Yeah a sandwich shop would be just as effective. Lol!
Guardian reporting Chris Bowen will run for the leadership
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/scott-morrison-government-income-tax-cut-delay-election-budget/11132046?pfmredir=sm