Term three, day three

Anthony Albanese emerges the clear favourite to assume the Labor leadership, as the emergence of the party’s internal pollling belies the notion that it had any clearer an idea of what awaited it than the rest of us.

Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:

• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.

Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.

• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.

• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,092 comments on “Term three, day three”

  1. Catmomma “I was advised that I shouldn’t keep swallowing his bait. ”

    Sounds like good advice. Maybe you could follow it :-).

    Perhaps you could pass it on to Goll (and a few others) as well…

  2. “Most people just want a roof over their heads, good health, kids going well.”

    Jesus Nath, stop saying things I agree with. This is why the ALP was able to get inner city votes, but lost the mining and votes. The Adani thing doesn’t really threaten inner city types like me, not as viscerally. To the miners, it was a direct that to that roof.

    The Greens can get away with it, because they’re never going to get the mining vote; they don’t need it, they’re only after balance of power.

    The ALP needs to put jobs first. Environmental policy follows second. Once the ALP is in government, it can finesse the environmental policy. It’s easier to do it once you’re there.

    If that means losing a couple of those inner city seats to the Greens, but picking up 10 QLD ones, it might be well be worth it.

  3. PuffyTMD
    says:
    May the Mother-of-all-Recessions hit while their Messiah is in office. There will be no Rudd/Gillard/Swan Labor to save them.
    ___________________________
    Those wishing a recession, plague or some other carnival of death on the Australian people for voting the Liberal government back in by ONE seat are simultaneously both the funniest and most disturbing shit ever.

  4. That one seat was enough. And by all accounts the crap is going to hit the fan soon, so maybe people might learn the value of looking after one another instead of carrying on like dingos looking for sheep to eat.

  5. Bowen drew up the ‘franking credits’ policy that baby boomers, and those likely to inherit whatever is left, rejected.

    Those who have contributed the max to super are earning over $200,000 per annum tax free on a fund returning 8% or better which many do. These oldies have difficulty spending the amount they are forced to draw down, upwards of $75,000 per year. The fund can earn twice the drawdown so the Capital just keeps increasing. Australians have over 2 trillion in Super. Terrific change from the days when most workers finished up Friday and went on the pension Monday

    These oldies do not want to contribute to Society anymore when they are costing the nation a fortune. The cost of keeping a cancer patient on the chemo path going for a few years could be upward of half a million dollars with (according to Scummo) no cost to the patient. Ambulances, police and all the other services provided for free. They paid tax before they retired maybe 10 years ago so no longer contribute financially to Society.

    You hear about someone with upwards of $M2 in super drawing over $50000 plus per year. Compare that to a job seeker with $200 in his account living on $40 per day.

    I have heard baby boomers in the last month claim their benefit from franking credits ranges from $5,000 to $80,000 while our job search is around $10,000.

    Someone will explain to todays workers and taxpayers the real picture in relation to franking credits and this increasing wealth that is not being taxed.

    No way that will be anyone in the L/NP. Who in Labor has the courage to give it a try. The fallback position is that if nothing is done, these boomers now move to the next cycle and fall off the perch. Eventually.

  6. We are about to have a boom. I guess that won’t suit your narrative but it’ll be good for the people who who want to participate .

  7. briefly says:
    Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:49 pm

    To win Labor has to rebuild its credit with the disaffected. There are plenty of them. They populate electorates all over the place. They are disenchanted with all parties and on this occasion were prompted to vote Reactionary. Labor needs to get its head straight. These voters are not rusted on Tory voters. They are disenchanted. They are resentful and even bitter. They often have tough lives and feel ignored and betrayed. Labor has to make it very clear that we exist to serve them as well as every other working person, young and old; that we will defend their economic, social and political interests while also dealing with all the other great challenges that lie before us. Working people are not expendable. We need to communicate that with all we have.

    ———————————————-

    Couldn’t agree more. And a belated thank you for all the hard work you have put in,in what unfortunately was a losing cause. It’s people like you who make the system work.

    I hope you will get your opportunity to choose a new leader and that you will oppose strongly any attempts to reverse the rule changes which brought this about. And I hope that ultimately the choice of a leader will be made 100 per cent by the grass roots, people like you. A primary system where the candidates go around the country to meet the party and then be voted on at a leadership conference which would also serve as a policy conference.

    I never understood the old practice which denied party workers a voice in the leadership if they were in electorates without a sitting MP. It meant that the leader never had security, always looking over his/her shoulder and realizing that if 25 MP’s were annoyed at you they could bring you down. That’s why we had six PM’s in a decade.

  8. Nath
    Infrastructure, you’re right , if you had some, you wouldn’t ooze the semi viscous slime of envy emanating from your childlike rejection response that runs parallel with your condition.
    You’re no inner city green, just a drop kick with a gambling problem.

  9. Goll
    says:
    Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:56 pm
    Nath
    Infrastructure, you’re right , if you had some, you wouldn’t ooze the semi viscous slime of envy emanating from your childlike rejection response that runs parallel with your condition.
    You’re no inner city green, just a drop kick with a gambling problem.
    ________________________________
    you say the sweetest things to me sweetheart. give us a kiss. 🙂


  10. … a Rugby League loving, Sydney westie, and unionist Labor blokey bloke?

    Albo might look like these things, but he’s also just like the person at the local club who actually gets stuff organised and done.

    Plus he is much, much smarter than he carries on. It’s disarming.

  11. A glimmer of hope:

    Queenslander Jim Chalmers is still weighing up whether he will enter the contest in what would provide an option for generational change, with the 41-year-old expected to declare his hand on Wednesday.

  12. nath says:
    Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:43 pm

    …”Infrastructure”…

    Yes, I knew what you meant.
    I’m starting to wonder if the “could be better” education system you referred too, might have failed you somewhat?

  13. Andy Murray says:
    Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:57 pm

    …”a Rugby League loving, Sydney westie, and unionist Labor blokey bloke?
    Albo might look like these things, but he’s also just like the person at the local club who actually gets stuff organised and done.
    Plus he is much, much smarter than he carries on. It’s disarming”…

    I agree, I was really just trying to take the piss out of Nath, which I think doesn’t happen nearly enough around here.

  14. Not Sure
    says:
    Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:59 pm
    nath says:
    Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:43 pm
    …”Infrastructure”…
    Yes, I knew what you meant.
    I’m starting to wonder if the “could be better” education system you referred too, might have failed you somewhat?
    _______________________
    You got me. I just assumed you were stupid because you’re from Queensland. 🙂

  15. Nath
    Your lips are generally all over the place. Even you wouldn’t know where they’ve been. You’re mouth keeps running away from you.
    No thanks, pass.

  16. nath says:
    Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 12:07 am

    …”You got me. I just assumed you were stupid because you’re from Queensland. “…

    It’s a fair assumption to make.

    I’ve always suspected you really lived in a 2 bedroom brick veneer in Frankston, an un-mowed front lawn strewn with the detritus of your 5 kids all under 7.
    Smoke a pack and a half of Winnie Blue’s a day and swill V.B. tinnies like they were going out of fashion and drive a 1996 Commodore with 20 inch wheels worth more than the vehicle, which you couldn’t even afford to park within 30 miles of inner Melbourne, let alone live there.

    Assumptions are fun.

  17. Psyclaw – Not really because Labor went hard on climate change, especially in the last week from what I gleaned from their advertising from the little bit of commercial tv I watched.

    I thought the Labor campaign was too scattered there was no coherent underlying theme to it and opposing income tax cuts for lower and middle income earners was pretty “brave”

    Just before the election Shorten promised to turn it into a referendum on wages, but other than the bizarre mega pay rise for child care workers the issue hardly got a mention.

    The problem with being in opposition is that elections are really a referendum on the government of the day, unless the economy is a mess like in 83 or the government has done something to really piss people off like work choices or a carbon tax they usually get back in. the advantages lie with the incumbent.

    The truth is Labor’s poll numbers were always flattered by all the leadershit going on in the libs and the hard right campaign to bring down Turnbull rather than anything really unpopular the government had actually done and the economy is going ok so scratch the surface and historical precedent probably favoured the government being returned.

    The problem for Labor is after 2007 they had the opportunity to cement a coalition together large enough to leave the libs eating their dust for a decade, but they blew it and now they are going to need a combination of good luck and good management to get back.

    It’s hard to build credibility from opposition about the best you can do is not scare people you need to be in government to win credibility.

  18. It’s a fair assumption to make.
    I’ve always suspected you really lived in a 2 bedroom brick veneer in Frankston, an un-mowed front lawn strewn with the detritus of your 5 kids all under 7.
    Smoke a pack and a half of Winnie Blue’s a day and swill V.B. tinnies like they were going out of fashion and drive a 1996 Commodore with 20 inch wheels worth more than the vehicle, which you couldn’t even afford to park within 30 miles of inner Melbourne, let alone live there.
    Assumptions are fun.
    _____________________________________
    That’s some imagination. I like it. Frankston house prices are no joke these days. A simple 3 bed house can go for around 550-700k. Can I swap the V.B for Little Creatures or at least a Crown. V.B is disgusting. As is smoking.

  19. Nath,
    Crown lager is brewed in the same vat as V.B. at the same time.
    They suck two thirds of slops off the bottom, filter it through a dirty rag and call it V.B.
    Then call the top third Crown Lager, and sell it to dopey Victorians at 175% of the price.

    Drink Cooper’s.
    It is what all us stupid blokey blokes from up North are into.

  20. I wrote a lot of words then butdidn’t really say much so will have another go,

    People judge you on what you did when you were last in government.

    Hawke and Keating could trade off the fact they took over an economy that was in stagflation, Howard could play on the recession we had to have.

    The last time Labor were in power what people remember of it is refugee boats a complex carbon trading scheme that no one understood followed by a scary big energy tax that they promised they wouldn’t introduce.

    Only getting back into power and rewrite the narrative you can’t really do it from opposition and especially when you have a leader people don’t really trust.

  21. And when they scrape out the bottom of that beer vat the black solids become Vegemite and the brown muck left over is mixed with water to become Coopers.

  22. Red Ted,

    The tradies (and urban delivery drivers) will be amongst the first to get it in the neck when the next wave of automation hits.

    The delivery drivers will lose their jobs. The tradies won’t but they will lose their ability to command high prices for their labour/skill.

    Here’s how it will go down: smart Internet-connected tools, owned by capital and leased to tradies (never sold). Bang, there goes the bargaining power: capitalist say to trady, you’ll take a 20% pay cut (or lease increase) or we’ll turn off your lease and your tools will be a useful as bricks. Trady tries to use 2010s tools instead of the smart connected variety – inferior work and 20% slower work rate (or a drill that rip’s one’s arm off…). Uncompetitive.

    Sorry – it’s nothing personal, it’s just business..

    Bye-bye V12 utes. Thanks Scomo – we had a go and we got … f*cked over…

    No-one in the Liberals has any idea. Nor yet anyone in the ALP, but they can learn…

    Completely agree with this. Driverless cars and delivery vehicles have problems, but these are going to be overcome in the ~5 year timescale.

    For the tools, that is happening now, and this change will only accelerate.

    Ed Husic in Labor has been looking at this issue for a while, and getting together a brains trust to formulate policy.

  23. It will not just be skilled artisans, one of the things about the advances in information processing machines is that the kind of work that was once largely immune to automation ie cerebral work will increasingly to be done by machines as they get better at “thinking”

  24. Of course people wouldn’t be so susceptible to a tax cut bribe if the Liberals didn’t have an active policy of wage restraint.

  25. Defeated Labor leader Bill Shorten has stunned colleagues by actively involving himself in the selection of his successor and attempting to hinder the run of left-wing powerbroker Anthony Albanese, whose quest for the top job has won a significant endorsement from senior members of the party’s NSW right faction

    The activities of Mr Shorten – who beat Mr Albanese for the leadership in 2013 – have shocked some colleagues who say he is “up to his neck in it” and should stay out of the selection process.
    “He was initially ringing people around the country urging them to vote for Tanya. He has also been actively lobbying people making sure someone runs against Albo,” said one senior MP.
    “It’s weird. As a former leader you have an opportunity to be above it. You get treated with a whole respect for making that choice.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-weird-bill-shorten-stuns-colleagues-as-he-lobbies-against-anthony-albanese-20190521-p51pni.html

  26. Can’t help but have a sneaking suspicion that if Rudd had actively campaigned against Shorten like that during the 2013 leadership ballot, the reaction around these parts would have been rather more… uh, disapproving.

  27. Nath,
    It is time to let it go.
    As you are well aware whole bunch of people here have put much hope for the future of their country in this man that you seem determined to hang shit on.
    It would be grossly unfair of you to continue to pillory him even now.
    Find a new whipping boy, please.
    It is done.

  28. Albo clearly has a lot of enemies in the party, including Shorten. The bitterness clearly goes back to the R-G-R years.

    The problem is that, if the best alternatives these people can come up with are first Tanya and now Bowen, then why bother?

  29. The activities of Mr Shorten – who beat Mr Albanese for the leadership in 2013 – have shocked some colleagues who say he is “up to his neck in it” and should stay out of the selection process.

    Yeah, he should cut it out. He lost, twice. Game over. It’s someone else’s turn now. And whomever that is, they should not be appointed by Bill Shorten.

  30. One option for Labor to “wave through” bad Coalition election promises is to abstain from voting on the legislation, rather than voting with the government.

    If you abstain, you can make a song and dance about why you are, and Hansard will confirm that only the Coalition (and whomever else) were solely responsible for whatever legislation turned out to be a disaster.

    But if you vote with them, you run the risk of losing the “but you voted for it!” argument years later when the reasons for doing so have been lost in time.

  31. with likely virtual control of the senate along with corgi, lambie and one notion, let’s hope the LNP are again emboldened to pursue the IPA wish list that undid Howard and Abbott.

    I expect a radical attack on the environmental ‘side’ now – the coal lobby is owed massively and are calling in their debts. I also expect trump-like attacks on land clearing laws, climate science programs, environmental NGOs/NFPs, unions, ABC, SBS, uranium mining, nuclear power, efficiency standards, emissions standards, etc etc.

    Victoria will need to step up and really be the Massachucetts of Australia with progressive laws. the rest you selfish pricks can go and get fucked IMHO.

  32. I can not forgive voters who voted completely becausd of self interest. This includes my in laws who continually leactire me that franking credits are their righ as they set up their retirement including yearly monthly overseas trips on it.

    I try and point out others on a pension are struggling, not our fault! Do you want us on a pension? Even when they have enough shares to be more than comfortable

    The definition of need has changed it is now on greed

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