Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
Not Sure
says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:35 pm
Blobbit says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:48 pm
…”Are there enough of those inner city seats to get the ALP over the line?”…
Not a chance.
The map Mr Bowe links to in his comment at the top of this thread shows quite clearly why.
Labor actually got some notable swings to it in safe city based Liberal seats (pointless) and some of its own (who cares?).
Deliberately chase moderate conservatives in inner city seats and you will get slaughtered in winnable regional areas, particularly Queensland (which is already a sea of blue) and to a lesser degree W.A.
_________________________
Pretty much. They key is outer suburban and regional. What in the ALP arsenal can appeal to them? Infrastructure. Who is the infrastructure guru known to all? Albo.
Not Sure,
You may not have noticed, but it is the workers abandoning Labor to form that sea of blue in Queensland, even though Labor had plenty of policy offerings that would have made their lives a lot better.
To win Labor has to rebuild its credit with the disaffected. There are plenty of them. They populate electorates all over the place. They are disenchanted with all parties and on this occasion were prompted to vote Reactionary. Labor needs to get its head straight. These voters are not rusted on Tory voters. They are disenchanted. They are resentful and even bitter. They often have tough lives and feel ignored and betrayed. Labor has to make it very clear that we exist to serve them as well as every other working person, young and old; that we will defend their economic, social and political interests while also dealing with all the other great challenges that lie before us. Working people are not expendable. We need to communicate that with all we have.
This is absolutely fantastic!
Nigel Farage had a milkshake thrown at him while on the election trail in Newcastle. The Brexit party leader appeared to be furious after the incident and was heard to mutter ‘it’s complete failure’ as his security team led him away.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/may/20/nigel-farage-hit-by-milkshake-while-campaigning-in-newcastle-video
Better than eggs!
The Liberals benefited from a massive surge of voters. Right?
Not really. The Liberal first preference tally actually fell by close to 1 per cent, according to Australian Electoral Commission counts posted at midday.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/raw-voting-figures-reveal-the-real-losers-in-saturdays-shock-election/news-story/8401c6ad677fae3ca6af0bd9a6ce161d Liberal votes was 3,293,099, a 0.91 per cent fall from the 2016 level. It’s barely moved over two years, and certainly was not a flood of support.
The time for Green-tinted language is well past. We have to find our own messages. I’m sure we’re capable of it. We just need to do it.
If you want to know how Labor can win, wouldn’t a good place to start be how they managed to win the one parliamentary majority they have managed since 1993 ie 2007.
They won on the back of a trade union funded commercial tv advertising campaign focused on wages, working conditions and job security.Interestingly at that election the sWing to Labor in the inner city electorates was anaemic.
Of course after winning in 2007 Labor got themselves in trouble when they recalibrated back to inner city concerns, and Rudd was left trying to sell the ETS WITH a Liberal party that under Abbott that was now opposed to it, and refugee boats started arriving on a wekely basis, that is what burst the Rudd bubble and eventually via the carbon tax saw Labor smashed by a rabid right winger.
Two elections later and another loss to a rabid right winger, but like in 2004 swings to Labor in the inner city, strange how whenever we get an election where the swing to Labor is strongest in inner city electorates Labor not only lose, but go backwards.
briefly,
You communicated with them tirelessly and the Liberals said, ‘free money!’ and they voted for them.
Sure Labor have to craft policies for the working and middle class but they should not pander to them. They have become feckless.
Victoria @ #996 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 10:51 pm
So, another 1998 style win for the Liberals?
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:49 pm
…
Labor has to make it very clear that we exist to serve them as well as every other working person, young and old; that we will defend their economic, social and political interests while also dealing with all the other great challenges that lie before us. Working people are not expendable. We need to communicate that with all we have.
But why is it the responsibility of the politically engaged; don’t the turkeys share some of the responsibility.
the planets a bit of a problem; the Greens are real danger; but as for the turkeys; why should any one worry; bring in the clowns.
On the one hand, yes.
On the other hand, throwing food at assholes doesn’t seem to be translating into victory at the polls. Fun as it is to watch, a better strategy is probably called for. Substituting different food items is probably not a strategic improvement.
This election was clearly no endorsement for the Liberal party or Morrison.
But it was also clearly a rejection of Labor’s election platform (real or fake) and leadership team.
Oh, plus the hit to both LNP and ALP primaries is entirely in line with the whole UAP bullshit eating away at trust in anything or anyone – it just happened to be that the LNP got more of that alienated vote back in preferences.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:52 pm
briefly,
You communicated with them tirelessly and the Liberals said, ‘free money!’ and they voted for them.
Sure Labor have to craft policies for the working and middle class but they should not pander to them. They have become feckless.
C@t, Labor exists to serve these people. That is why we are here. We campaigned against ourselves in this election. We let ourselves down. We let our supporters down. We let the country down. We gave our enemies too many chances and they took them. We must do much better and we must commence by restating our primary purpose.
There is only one party that can resolve the very great challenges that demand our attention. That is the Labor Party. The rest are of no account. They will never accomplish anything. It really is up to us.
nath says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:39 pm
_________________________
…”Pretty much. They key is outer suburban and regional. What in the ALP arsenal can appeal to them? Infrastructure. Who is the infrastructure guru known to all? Albo”…
It seems more than a little strange to me, that an inner Melbourne greenie such as yourself, has become so enamored with a Rugby League loving, Sydney westie, and unionist Labor blokey bloke?
I like it, I just find it odd.
Not sure if anyone mentioned it but Tanya’s withdrawal might be related to her fear of a kill Bill attack on her based on her husband’s career.
Lucky Creed,
It’s not Labor pandering to the predilections of the people in the inner city, and thus losing votes as a result, it’s Labor having policies that appealed to their sense of fairness and their concerns wrt Climate Change. Are you saying Labor shouldn’t address these issues? Then they wouldn’t be the Labor Party any more.
I live in a provincial seat and we didn’t win but we did win a lot of booths that we never used to, a lot like the inner city swings to Labor. So I fully believe we can stitch a winning formula together if we just address a few issues that were lead in our saddlebags.
First and foremost we need to explain better. We need better ads. We need better attack dogs in parliament. Lots of little things that will push us over the line next time. Tighten the show up, stress test it and be more disciplined and prepared.
One thing I know is the party of the workers can’t just rely on them any more. Anyway the nation isn’t so binary, workers or bosses, there’s lots of in-between areas that Labor can get votes from. And should.
Not Sure
says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:01 pm
nath says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:39 pm
_________________________
…”Pretty much. They key is outer suburban and regional. What in the ALP arsenal can appeal to them? Infrastructure. Who is the infrastructure guru known to all? Albo”…
It seems more than a little strange to me, that an inner Melbourne greenie such as yourself, has become so enamored with a Rugby League loving, Sydney westie, and unionist Labor blokey bloke?
I like it, I just find it odd.
___________________________
2 reasons.
1. find him likable in an old fashioned way. Whether it is genuine or not there is an air of authenticity about him that appeals to people. As Groucho Marx said ‘The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.’
2. he totally nerds out over infra. love that.
Anyway, if Chalmers runs he’ll get my vote. Great CV, media polished, and very competent and knowledgeable.
frednk, I am a democrat. I believe in the people. I think the election result is a perfect snapshot of the state of the country, of the political order, of the campaigns and in particular of Labor’s mistakes.
I do not blame the people for our errors. They did not make them. We did. I have met hundred and hundreds of angry voters. They have every reason to be angry, as far as I can see. If we want their support in future, it falls to us to better understand them and to appeal for the right to represent them. We can only govern with their consent. It is up to us to obtain it.
It is not really a question of policy. We are talking seriously disengaged voters who really don’t give a f— for the political system. I reckon most of the undecided would not know who Tanya Plibersek or Michael McCormack were. They would have had no idea what policies were even offered.
These types of people would be highly susceptible to Clive Palmer’s advertising blitz or a tweet from a mate about death taxes. Short of changing mandatory voting the only antidote is to engage these people, build trust with them and then they may actually listen.
Talking about inner-city issues is not going to cut the mustard because to them that is all they have heard for their whole lives.
I reckon – building trust in government is the strategy for the ALP here. You cannot pitch social-democratic reforms when the people do not trust the government. The Tories will always be happy to debauch the institutions of government because their project is to reduce its capacity. Labor has to counter this for the long term good of the country.
Psyclaw I never thought Plibersek would stand a chance with that factor in play. My own opinion is once the time is served that’s done, but jeez you can just see how it would play out. It would have been brutal
Lol a r. 🙂
Anyway, your concerns have been addressed, the police have told McDonalds that they cannot sell milkshakes any more when their is a political rally scheduled in their town. 🙂
shiftaling @ #1012 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 11:07 pm
I’m not so sure. Our Labor candidate in Robertson was a former heroin addict and no one said boo! about it.
JQ…exactly.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:44 pm
…”Not Sure,
You may not have noticed, but it is the workers abandoning Labor to form that sea of blue in Queensland, even though Labor had plenty of policy offerings that would have made their lives a lot better”…
I had noticed that, yes.
But I am putting most of it down to a monstrous scare campaign, and Labor’s neither here nor there, wish washy position on a coal mine that will make sweet FA difference to global carbon pollution and will probably now end up being built now anyway, with a free railway line funded by you and I, and a 10 -15 year royalty holiday generously provided by the next LNP Queensland government.
briefly
says:
I do not blame the people for our errors. They did not make them. We did. I have met hundred and hundreds of angry voters. They have every reason to be angry, as far as I can see.
___________________________________
Really? One of the highest life expectancy rates in the world, good (could be better) education system, health system that does a great job. Low unemployment. What the fuck do you want?
Cat I do see what you’re saying and I’m not saying it’s fair, but the PM is a different matter I think. There’s more focus on who they are as a person
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:06 pm
“Sorry, I no longer respond to or read what nath has to say. ”
Oh really…
Hon. Simon Crean for next ALP leader! Sorry I meant Chris Bowen.
Simon Crean profoundly spoke against Howard sending the troops to Iraq in search of the holy grail of WOMD and we now live with the terrorist threat thanks to the rotten little Johnny diabolically poor judgement.
As far as Labor leadership success goes however, I suspect Mr Bowen would give a similar result to Mr Crean. Just let Albo get on with it for dogs sake. Morrison already backtracking on low income tax cuts for 1st July.
Wong to back Albo tomorrow.
I think the hundreds of angry people Briefly meets are just angry because he’s trying to depress them with negative shit. Most people just want a roof over their heads, good health, kids going well.
IcanCU:
Unfortunately, Messrs Crean and Beazley more or less waved through CGT changes and refundable franking credits etc in 2000 etc., and deserve considerable opprobrium for failure of effective opposition.
It was the perfect time reclaim the ALPs economic credentials…
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:10 pm
JQ…exactly.
Standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Briefly on the barricades it shall be. Solidarity forever…
Just don’t expect me to use the term Lib-kin…:-)
A quote charming unquote story that appears to have been buried.
It appears that ‘accident’ prone the newly annointed Member for Chisholm Gladys Liu might be in some bother as word has emerged in several media outlets that her sister labelled the ALP candidate a quote retard etc unquote in recent days.
Apparently the ALP are all over this and are seeking advice.
What a charming family the Liu’s are
MS – you can believe that I don’t .Democracy is about stitching together a coalition of sectional interests with often competing and conflicting desires big enough to get you over the line.
It is also just as much about trying to fracture the coalition your opponents have built and at the moment, indeed at every election bar onesince 93 the tories are doing that better than Labor.
2010 and 2016 show us the peaks that the current Labor coalition of voters can get to, it’s not big enough.If Labor back off on stuff like the enviroment and identity politics and leave that stuff to the greens and instead focus almost exclusively on job security, wages, working conditions, infrastructure etc it will not cost them their bourgeois left vote, these people are not going to stop preferencing Labor in favour of the hard right, but it might, over time, get them back the voters that won them power in 2007.
C@tmomma @ #1008 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 10:22 pm
The best and only way to deal with the f$ckwits who come under the title of Australian Voter, is to buy them off with promises of lots of lolly paid for by uncosted ‘efficency dividents’. Tell the you are going to sack all of the public service, cut all foreign aid and will put a tax on burka wearers.
Then when you get in say, ‘Oh Noze, we’ve just seen the books and there is no money.’
Then do whatever you want.
I’m going to make a wild prediction for the hell of it: Wong’s going to retire at the next election.
It’s not based on anything I’ve heard or anything like that. Just a bit of wild speculation, based on the idea that if Albo gets up she’s probably going to have to cede the Senate leadership to the right and the fact that she will have been in the Senate for 20 years at the end of her current term.
Again, just a wild prediction; don’t look too deeply into it or take it as news.
The Dobby family are “Australian Christians” just like the independent in Deakin. As repulsive as you would expect…
Labor puts out a good set of polcies for a fairer Australia, and gets mugged by a greedy, unprincipled electorate, a collection of lying RWNJs and religious fruitcakes, and Murdoch’s media, and we ask the victim to explain why they were bashed?
I can’t believe you people are falling for it.
Nath
I think hundreds of people are angry because of the the irrational mishmash of garbage you talk about captain bullshit. It’s obvious that your political idol and mentor was not to blame for the one in a million win by the Morrison mob.
You can get treatment for your excessive/compulsive order.
Just saying because no-one else even talks to you.
Go Labor
Just Quietly @ #1019 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 11:14 pm
I was advised that I shouldn’t keep swallowing his bait. 🙂
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 2:30 pm
beguiledagain @2.03pm
The initial claim was that Dividend Imputation was bizarre and unique – that is clearly not the case.
—————————–
I thought it was fairly clear from my post that I was talking about the controversial practice of giving a tax refund to people who had not paid tax.
As I understand it, dividend imputation with tax credits going to those who had a tax liability was something introduced during the Hawke-Keating years as a means of avoiding double taxation. I understand that that remains.
As has been pointed out, if you give the non-taxpaying shareholders a credit for the corporation tax paid by the company, that revenue is lost, the deficit goes up and there is less money to pay for essential services. Therefore the rest of the taxpayers are paying for the rort making up for the shortfall.
Admittedly it might have been too complex for voters who don’t pay much attention to grasp. They obviously were suckers for the government-inspired lies about a death tax. But the recipients of this largesse knew very well that they have been getting a welfare check from the government.
Also I am getting a bit sick of this shit that workers are greedy, fuck off we are all greedy, who doesn’t want more money?The truth is most working people are up to their eyeballs in debt, we have record levels of private debt so of course they worry about money.
Remember a lot of high income earners who vote Labor, indeed probably most of them, work in the public sector or sections of the private sector that get a lot of contract work from the government. These people are not voting left out of altruism.
Shiftailing
Yes. There’s no doubt that the husband has done well in NSW despite the historical facts. He has been given a fair go media wise. But he’s a public servant not a pollie. As well, the NSW Coalies have not been troubled n finding plenty of other NSW Labor shit to throw.
But the Fed Coalies will go back 100 years to rake up a scandal and will do whatever it takes to spoil the reputation of a feared opponent even if it is only guilt by association. The Telegraph wouldn’t hesitate.
Might not work of course, but it would inflict pain and TP might be having a “is it worth it” moment.
Lucky Creed @ #1026 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 11:24 pm
I tend to agree with this, but it seems very much like the offering the ALP just took to the election. Then the Liberals went boo! Death Taxes! and Yay! Free money! and the herd stampeded in the other direction.
How quickly will age demographic change alter the vote? I hope my fellow gen x voters aren’t going to be as keen on the libs in the future as our boomer parents are…
What you are saying is that a small investor who is in the tax free threshold should not invest. Large investors status quo. Policy was a disgrace. The Bowen bean counter who has always had a very quick look(eg novated leasing) is to blame. He needs to be eradicated from Labor’s policy framework.
nath says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 11:07 pm
…”1. find him likable in an old fashioned way. Whether it is genuine or not there is an air of authenticity about him that appeals to people. As Groucho Marx said ‘The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.’
2. he totally nerds out over infra. love that”…
As a provincial ignoramus from Alabama, I have no idea what “infra” is.
Some new sub-genre of trance music that the kiddies all enjoy dancing too whilst popping pills perhaps?
A reference to his failed dreams of glory as a DJ?
Enlighten me?
Have some bloody pride. Stop looking under the bed to find the best way to placate aresoles. Tell them the truth. They are greedy, spineless, self-absorbed, wilfully ignorant cowards, who responded to someone giving them permission to be racist and selfish by falling at his feet and drinking his Kool-Aid.
I am very happy with the policies Labor ran with, and the leader they had. I am angry because I do believe Shorten was the Prime Minister we needed right now, in these times.
The voters rejected that.
May the Mother-of-all-Recessions hit while their Messiah is in office. There will be no Rudd/Gillard/Swan Labor to save them.
Infrastructure