Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
Blobbit @ #935 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 9:32 pm
They’re more likely Liberal voters.
“Read the article I just linked to.”
I’ll have a read. I posted before that popped up. Isn’t the danger there losing votes to the ON?
Oh dear, the first bit of news I hear inadvertently in three days is; Chris Bowen, THE ARCHITECT OF LABOR’S CONTROVERSIAL TAX POLICY to stand for the leadership.
Injected with the poison from the start.
Actually I’m sure William would factor that in maybe?
C@tmomma
says:
No! No! No! No! No! Read the article I just linked to. Labor needs to go where Ged has boldly gone and then some. Next time go after the Inner City Liberal seats.
_______________________________
Oh…..Oh….it hurts again to laugh…..oh.
Cotmomma – Funny that a fairness agenda did not resonate in the economically straightened Burbs. They obviously believe all that aspirational bullshit. When the economy falls out of bed, Labor will do well.
I don’t think Labor want to go into the practice of chasing the votes of “doctor’s wives” (Greens and Wet libs). We know where that ends. Labor is the only progressive party capable of winning over the disengaged centre which is where elections are won.
These type of people are generally sneered upon by the greens and wet libs and are a demographic that Labor really needs to keep talking to. No use debating politely to impress the “doctor’s wives”.
We may lose a few inner city votes but the electoral pain of that is nothing compared to the punishment dished out for losing the votes of the disengaged centre.
Fess just google Kevin Bonham blog. I don’t do cut and pasted very well on my iPhone.
Nath and Cat – can you guys get a hotel room somewhere and hammer it out there. Away from us!
I think the polls will be easy to read at both federal and state level, outside of an election campaign bonus the incumbent four points, first half of the campaign three points, last week before the big dance two points, and you will not be far off getting a true picture of things.
Polling is clearly biased against sitting governments we saw it in Victoria, NSW, and now at federal level.
The ALP are actually well placed to challenge for Higgins at the next election at only 3.5%, if Fiona McLeod was to run again with a longer lead in campaign then its a possible gain as the government will be nine years old and there is a chance of tougher economic conditions coming. The next redistribution will be interesting because Victoria looks set to gain a new seat with possibly a rural or eastern suburban electorate abolished.
Just Quietly
says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:45 pm
Nath and Cat – can you guys get a hotel room somewhere and hammer it out there. Away from us!
___________________
Sorry, it’s just the thought of the ALP gaining government through Higgins, Kooyong, Wentworth and Nth Sydney!!
It was interesting that Labor tracking polls were showing a tighter position than the national polling.
“I’ll have a read. I posted before that popped up. Isn’t the danger there losing votes to the ON?”
Ok had a quick skim; the basic thrust seems to be that there’s an inner city move to the ALP. I live in one of those seats (Perth) so I can see it happening.
Labor can win those seats by focusing on jobs and social justice, and I think that can play ok in the suburbs. The challenge is how the environment fits in. It see to a to be a killer in the burbs and rurals of there is a perception the ALP is willing to trade jobs for the environment.
Last election there was a perception that Labor was willing to do that. I think some of their equivocation came from them trying to defend those inner city seats.
Are there enough of those inner city seats to get the ALP over the line?
Mexicanbeemer says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:46 pm
I hope we do not run a campaign to take Higgins. Imagine the swathes of marginals we would lose if we built a policy platform to woo the few swinging voters of Higgins.
Higgins – Possible at 3.5%
Kooyong – not happening unless the AEC adds Richmond or Box Hill to the electorate
Wentworth – not happening
Nth Sydney – not happening
nath says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:46 pm
Just Quietly
says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:45 pm
Nath and Cat – can you guys get a hotel room somewhere and hammer it out there. Away from us!
___________________
Sorry, it’s just the thought of the ALP gaining government through Higgins, Kooyong, Wentworth and Nth Sydney!!
Well I kinda agree with you but I don’t think that is exactly what she said.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:49 pm
Higgins – Possible at 3.5%
Kooyong – not happening unless the AEC adds Richmond or Box Hill to the electorate
Wentworth – not happening
Nth Sydney – not happening
___________________________
Higgins is 3 way contest. The ALP PV on Sat was 25%. They did well there, but it’s on it’s way to being a Green/Lib contest.
mundo says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:39 pm
Oh dear, the first bit of news I hear inadvertently in three days is; Chris Bowen, THE ARCHITECT OF LABOR’S CONTROVERSIAL TAX POLICY to stand for the leadership.
Injected with the poison from the start.
Go easy Mundo – you’ve got three years to build the pessimism, don’t peak too early. Save it for the campaign (I will be paying more attention to you though!).
Thanks C@t. Will read and digest.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Kooyong – not happening unless the AEC adds Richmond or Box Hill to the electorate
________________________________________
The AEC seem pretty determined to keep the Lower Yarra as a determined line of demarcation. Which is probably not helping the ALP as they keep stacking up ALP safe seats in the North and West like lego blocks.
Lesley Abravanel
@lesleyabravanel
More “winning” from
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9:20 PM · May 21, 2019 · Twitter Web
I remember how awful I felt on the night of the WA state election in 2013, seeing the conservative forces smash Labor and win in places they’d never expected to.
I, and many others, never forgot the feeling that night and used it as motivation over the next few years as we campaigned hard every weekend. And the next election night was fantastic fun as we booted them from office and got rid of the same ministers & MPs that had been floating 4 years earlier.
Blobbit @ #944 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 9:38 pm
Not where Labor has picked them up. It’s the Liberal Party that are losing votes there. The Box Hill booths, for example. I just don’t think that people there are as greedy as the Tradies and Mining voters.
From speaking to PHON voters they will be the hardest for Labor to get back. So I reckon they should go after the voters the Liberals are shedding. I mean, that’s what John Howard decided to do. He purposely went after Labor’s traditional voters in the Blue Collar demographic. And they are still voting Liberal today. Especially the Tradies.
Not sure if anyone has mentioned this about Chisholm but fibs got an incredible slice of luck. Lui got a 3.3 swing against her, which should have swung the result to Labor. However, the candidate at the top of the draw, Ian Dobby, who no one has heard of and has a Facebook page with about 5 entries on it. Without any presence at all Dobby got 2.5% of the vote, all preferenced to Liu. He outvoted UAP and other nutters. Fibs won Chisholm because they won the donkey vote lottery.
Davidwh – I thought I’d read that the ALP tracking polls were pretty much in line with the public polls.
Nath in 2010 the AEC wanted to push Melbourne Ports across to Docklands and they do seem to be pushing Kooyong towards Box Hill while keeping it within the one local government area, they might push it south of Toorak Rd but then Higgins would need to find new voters.
Just Quietly @ #951 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 9:45 pm
Sorry, I no longer respond to or read what nath has to say. So I can hardly follow up on your suggestion. 🙂
The ALP devoting resources to Higgins, rather than Chisholm and other marginals, was likely what cost them Chisholm and maybe other marginals.
The ALP`s Higgins campaign was a hubristic measure to reuse the chance of the Greens winning. The Greens might have won without it.
C@t and I have swapped positions. I’m supporting the next ALP leader and she’s talking about dirt on him!!! 🙂
I will say this though. I find it highly amusing that nath appears to be having conniptions over my suggestion about Labor’s need to find new constituencies when it was him who was rubbing his hands together with glee at the thought of inner Melbourne suburbs gentrifying and handing those seats to The Greens.
So it’s okay for The Greens to have those sort of grand designs but not Labor? Sounds fair. 😐
AngoraFish:
No, no, no! Stay and fight, I say! Stand firm, look ’em in the eye for long enough, and they might just be the first to back down. #RallyToRestoreSanity
“He purposely went after Labor’s traditional voters in the Blue Collar demographic. And they are still voting Liberal today. Especially the Tradies”
Ok. I think there’s opportunity for the ALP to go for seats which have a young to middle age demographic, professional background (like Perth). It’s not going to make much inroads into the establishment areas, like Curtin.
To win government though, it’s going to have to get back some of the people in the suburbs who are now voting Liberal. How to do that while hanging on to younger professional voters is the challenge.
“C@t and I have swapped positions”
Maybe you’re just the same person, trolling us 😉
C@tmomma
says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 10:09 pm
I will say this though. I find it highly amusing that nath appears to be having conniptions over my suggestion about Labor’s need to find new constituencies when it was him who was rubbing his hands together with glee at the thought of inner Melbourne suburbs gentrifying and handing those seats to The Greens.
So it’s okay for The Greens to have those sort of grand designs but not Labor? Sounds fair.
_______________________________
THe ALP smashed the Greens in Cooper and Wills. I was hoping those seats would turn Green to help the overall polity move left but alas that is not going to happen soon. The only choice is to get behind Albo.
The Frankston area shows it is possible for the ALP to regain lost support, there were booths that swung from the ALP during the 1980s to being solid Liberal booths during the Howard years and are now back to being solid ALP booths.
The only dirt I can see being bandied about on social media is that Bowen once said “don’t vote for us”
@ Lucky Creed
Don’t wait for your Dr. to work it out.
It is quite possible for you to now undertake your own blood, stool etc test.
As I did off my Own bat, that found…anemia, hypokalemia, low WBC, HIGH M2-PK, positive FOB
I took this to my 2nd GP (the first one was absolutely stupid)…he gave me a CT straight away…found some unexpected stuff, referred me to a GI specialist….a pill cam and 2nd colonoscopy later…and Bingo.
All Fixed Now – but need to go back for further 12 check 12 months.
Go to a site called i-screen it is set up by a bunch of WA doctors. You can register there, look through the myriad of tests you can order, download and print the Pathology form, go get the blood or whatever test…24 hours later it is up on your site; if abnormal results a Dr. will review and provide advice first. Of course there is no medicare rebate for these tests.
Tom the first and best @ #970 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 10:06 pm
It depends how you define ‘Inner’. I was considering ‘Inner’ to be seats as ‘far out’ as Chisholm.
And, yes, maybe even North Sydney one day:
In North Sydney, Liberal Trent Zimmerman suffered a two-party preferred swing against him of up to 10 per cent, with both the Greens and ALP vote lifting sharply on the 2016 election.
Take a look at Macnamara:
There had been hopes within the Coalition that it could push Labor in the renamed seat of Macnamara, which stretches across the top of Port Phillip Bay in Melbourne.
But the Liberal primary vote fell by almost 7 per cent, with Labor’s Josh Burns now enjoying a near 8 point margin. At the 2016 election, Labor won the seat by 1.2 per cent.
The conclusion about those seats is this:
Economist Roger Wilkins of The University of Melbourne said it was difficult to precisely identify why capital cities were swinging left, but he believed both voters’ ages and incomes were playing a role.
Professor Wilkins, who studies trends in household incomes and labour markets, said a surprising aspect of Saturday’s poll was higher-income people voting in non-traditional ways.
“Swings to the left associated with higher incomes is the more interesting development, since economic policy differences would have suggested the reverse,” Professor Wilkins said.
“The left’s climate and energy policies may be becoming more appealing to higher-income people who can afford to be not as concerned with the implications of these policies for their ability to make ends meet.”
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-left-right-identity-fault-line-cracks-through-the-quinoa-curtain-20190520-p51p9o.html
Food for thought definitely. Suffice to say, Labor’s policies that appeal to these people aren’t bad ones. So maybe they should build on them, but also work on ways to incorporate other policies which don’t turn them off but appeal to the provincial and outer urban seats.
Seems to me that the only way for pollsters to regain credibility is for them to work at developing a sound methodology and be open about it so that it can be verified – even if it costs more and is less frequent. What’s the point of having regular polls if they are all rigged?
C@tMomma
The tradies (and urban delivery drivers) will be amongst the first to get it in the neck when the next wave of automation hits.
The delivery drivers will lose their jobs. The tradies won’t but they will lose their ability to command high prices for their labour/skill.
Here’s how it will go down: smart Internet-connected tools, owned by capital and leased to tradies (never sold). Bang, there goes the bargaining power: capitalist say to trady, you’ll take a 20% pay cut (or lease increase) or we’ll turn off your lease and your tools will be a useful as bricks. Trady tries to use 2010s tools instead of the smart connected variety – inferior work and 20% slower work rate (or a drill that rip’s one’s arm off…). Uncompetitive.
Sorry – it’s nothing personal, it’s just business..
Bye-bye V12 utes. Thanks Scomo – we had a go and we got … f*cked over…
No-one in the Liberals has any idea. Nor yet anyone in the ALP, but they can learn…
There is a kind of reverse Bowen in some inner city areas where the Liberals openly mock the inner city types as not being their voters. And many inner areas are historically progressive minded.
How many seats do Labor have in WA four I think plus six in QLD that means ten out forty six.
So to get barest of majorities Labor would need to win sixty six of the remaining hundred and five, that is the sort of party trick they might pull off twice a century.
Meditate on it like they do in zen and the of the absurdity of the inner city leafy suburb strategy will come to you.
It’s not going to make much inroads into the establishment areas, like Curtin.
They did actually, if you look at booth by booth analysis you will see a swing to Labor in Curtin. Not enough to win, but swings to Labor across that electorate.
C@t:
I agree with this, but it’s not a pollster issue, but a media wide issue.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-miracle-is-over-2019-australian.html
The commentary in the Aust. media on US politics and Trump especially is total garbage. You would know almost nothing concerning the situation there reading this stuff. I have read some of it, and it made me laugh. Sadly you will get a regurgitation of current approved propaganda – worse than Murdoch papers.
The game is afoot there now, and people like Comey and Brennan among others could end up facing jail time.
Fascinating stuff compared to droll Aust politics.
Lucky Creed @ #984 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 10:22 pm
Well, if you want to try and characterise it so narrowly then of course you are correct, how could I be so foolish!?! On the other hand, you could be thoughtful and dispassionate and intelligent enough to realise I am talking about adding those seats to the 65 or so Labor already has, in order to get to a majority.
@ Lucky Creed
Also…the pathology persons at i-screen were also recommending I go see a oncologist and specialist, and allowed me to order my own CEA and CA19.9 tests. Dio will know what they are. But like I said, all is well now.
Good luck
Blobbit says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 9:48 pm
…”Are there enough of those inner city seats to get the ALP over the line?”…
Not a chance.
The map Mr Bowe links to in his comment at the top of this thread shows quite clearly why.
Labor actually got some notable swings to it in safe city based Liberal seats (pointless) and some of its own (who cares?).
Deliberately chase moderate conservatives in inner city seats and you will get slaughtered in winnable regional areas, particularly Queensland (which is already a sea of blue) and to a lesser degree W.A.
And if the party of the workers is going to abandon them in favour of the Malcolm Turnbull’s and Dr Dick’s of this world…
WTF is the actual point?
In WA Labor hold Perth, Fremantle, Burt, Brand and Cowan….5. There are another 3 close prospects….Swan, Hasluck and Stirling. Pearce appears to be out of reach. I have met some very sweet Labor voters, especially in Stirling, in recent weeks. It would be a political crime to abandon them and every other Labor voter by waving the Tory platform thru.