Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
Labor should do the right thing and congratulate the Lib-Libs and the Lib-kin on their success. They beat us. They have had our measure. We will have to start from scratch.
“The cancer tests announcement was a politically canny one.”
I think it was a poor policy.
1. Why single out cancer rather than all the other diseases for extra funding?
2. The CT scans etc should be available for free through the public hospitals.
3. The biggest winners would have been private radiology companies who are already rolling in it.
4. It was boosting funding to the private system rather than the private system.
“…battle with Labor as Centre Alliance offers lifeline”
From the Guardian.
I’ve reckon that’s going to be a pretty common headline.
Citizen, the words “fiscal” and “stimulus” do not appear in any dictionary owned by the members of the coalition.
So the Labor Right should talk a big game on Climate Change, but should sell itself as a Turnbull Liberal in all other aspects?
The Labor right really are bereft of any political nous.
The good people of Warringah have a Lib-lite. Good for them.
I would like it if the CFMMEU would create an “Associate Membership”. I’d join.
“Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 6:19 pm
The Labor right really are bereft of any political nous.”
If only they had won government and stopped Adani like the Greens did.
Diogenes says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 6:17 pm
“The cancer tests announcement was a politically canny one.”
I think it was a poor policy.
1. Why single out cancer rather than all the other diseases for extra funding?
Indeed
The Liberal Party antecedents set up the the party to keep the unions in check and Labor out of office. Nothing has changed in 100 years or so…………Attacking/blaming the unions has been the cry from the conservative side as long as I can remember……………
While the PV for Labor is falling away, so is that of the LNP. Labor is struggling in the low to mid 30s and the LNP – even with their hayseed mates, are struggling to make it to 40 PV.
The fracturing nature of Oz politics is going to be the main game in town.
On the right there will be a ragbag of moderate right wing (small “l” Liberals – a dying breed), some traditional and genuine conservatives (also a dying breed) and a plethora of nutty small groups…….On the left will still be Labor, the Greens and strangely a group of kind of wealthy city types – formerly Liberals who can find a home alongside the nut jobs to the right of the LNP.
Toll roads (mostly financed by taxpayers) make a lot of money for the operators who support you-know-who.
“Millennial says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 6:19 pm
The Labor right should look at the battle for Warringah
So the Labor Right should talk a big game on Climate Change, but should sell itself as a Turnbull Liberal in all other aspects?”
To be fair, that was pretty much Rudd.
Tim Wilson today refused to admit the “Death Tax” was a lie “because there is someone in the Labor Party who supports it”.
So from now on no one can express an opinion because it immediately becomes Party Policy?
Ridiculous. A liar trying to rationalise his lies.
Tricot…to be fair, it;s quite misleading to describe the Gs as ‘left’. They are not left. They play tag with the Lib-Libs to keep labor out of power. They are Libs in drag.
Citizen, when Jeff built city link, he gave the operators what once was a Freeway and turned it into a toll-road, he got kicked out at the very next elections. Melbournians never forgave him for that act of bastardry
Of course pure speculation…
But if Morrison wins in 2022 then by 2025 the Libs will have been in power for 23 of the previous 29 years since 1996…
The next election really is going to be important (as they all are).
Will be interesting to see the final pendulum for the next Parliament!
Palmers election spend was just a drop in a bucket – even though he lost –
Palmer tells China’s CITIC to pay fair price
Brad Thompson
Clive Palmer has indicated he is willing to settle a bitter dispute with CITIC Limited over the future of its waste-bound magnetite iron ore operations in Western Australia for about $750 million and again warned the state’s Labor government not to intervene on behalf of the Chinese conglomerate.
Mr Palmer said it was up to CITIC to pay a fair price if it wanted to access more land on tenements held by his private company Mineralogy for a tailing dam expansion, waste storage and access to a bigger resource.
He was speaking on Tuesday after scoring another decisive court win over CITIC and associated entities that will see Mineralogy continue to reap hundreds of millions of dollars a year in royalties from the $16 billion Sino Iron magnetite operations about 100 kilometres south-west of Karratha in WA.
Challenge rejected
It is estimated that, at the current exchange rates and with spot iron ore prices hovering around $US100 a tonne, Mineralogy is receiving $100 million every 12 weeks in Sino Iron royalties.
Mr Palmer acknowledged this could increase to $600 million a year as Sino Iron ramped up production.
https://www.afr.com/business/mining/palmer-tells-china-s-citic-to-pay-fair-price-20190521-p51ph0
That’s enough from the Northern front for a while. We were beaten by superior campaigns, by campaigning against ourselves, by Green-tinting, by self-deception. We fight on.
Lizzie, let Tim say that sort of rubbish. The electorate will then start to realize just how bat-shyte crazy the Libs really are
Political parties of both persuasions stretch the truth about the policy intentions of other parties. You can hardly complain when the same tactics are used against you.
Blobbit
True, but it seems weird for a committed anti-Neoliberal like Rex to advocate for someone like that.
Politics, strange bedfellows and all that.
YBob
It was his arrogance and insulting attitude that got up my nose.
YBob: ‘The thing about the East-West link is that 90% of traffic on the Eastern Freeway exits on Hoddle Street, and does not continue onto Alexandra Pde.’
Could that be because Alexandra Pde is very slow going?
Gary Sparrow says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 6:25 pm
Of course pure speculation…
But if Morrison wins in 2022 then by 2025 the Libs will have been in power for 23 of the previous 29 years since 1996…
The next election really is going to be important (as they all are).
Will be interesting to see the final pendulum for the next Parliament!
With the exception of the NDIS, nothing of any lasting value has been accomplished by any Parliament since the 1980s in this country. Nothing. The new Parliament will not resolve any of the challenges we face, but will make them worse. The reactionaries are in charge. We are fucked.
The ALP`s apparent loss in Chisholm is almost certainly due to them diverting resources to Higgins, where the Greens were fighting the Liberals. The ALP, who came third last time, could have had a bare bones candidate plus HTV campaign and better used the resources in Chisholm and cost the Liberals a seat or two but they were more interested in defeating the Greens than the Liberals.
Gary: why are you choosing 1996 as your starting point?
If you choose 1983, you get:
Coalition – 23 out of 42 years.
ALP – 19 out of 42 years.
That is, of course, assuming the Coalition wins the next election. If it doesn’t, then it’s:
Coalition: 19 out of 42 years.
ALP- 23 out of 42 years.
I like that much better
Rates are far too low, Since Howard, the Libs have encouraged households to overextend them selves in debt. Trouble is, what will happen when rates rise again and how will Schlomo handle the fallout when the inevitable crash occurs ?
The polls is what done it!
Ok so Labor believed the polls for 3 years, they concluded their message was getting through & that the electorate had bought it.. when they hadn’t.
Had they known the truth they could….
1 Change the policy/ fine tune it
2 Do a better job explaining it
3 Change Bill .. that was never an option if they wanted to maintain any shared of credibility.Not that it hurt the Libs
Part of answer may be to get Rod Cameron back for reality check on polling in general
Sorry, Briefly, part company with you there.
I have plenty of ex-Labor friends who have shifted their allegiance to the Greens………they detest the Liberals and always have. Good old Bob Maumill in WA is one such………………………The Greens are the dreamers of Oz politics……………their agenda and support has not shifted in years. The Greens are hated in the bush, hated by some in Labor, but for mine, I look at the seats where Greens have got a Labor member back by way of preferences. The pity of it this time around is that the Palmer nut jobs and ON dragged votes away from both Labor and Green and got many of the Libs over the line. The beefing up of the marginals the like of Swan, Hasluck and Pearce by the drift to Palmer and ON was a real pity for Labor.
Peebee, “YBob: ‘The thing about the East-West link is that 90% of traffic on the Eastern Freeway exits on Hoddle Street, and does not continue onto Alexandra Pde.’
Could that be because Alexandra Pde is very slow going?”
No, it’s because Hoddle Street is the most logical route into the CBD
mundo @ #682 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 4:58 pm
Albo was sounding far too conciliatory this afternoon – respecting the governments mandate, blah, blah, blah.
Sometimes I despair of the ALP. I don’t think that Albo is the answer, but who bloody is?
They seem to be all infested with this inherently defensive attitude.
Lizzie, Wilson is a dick, he was in the IPA, so you know where he is at
ltep –
So you’re really ok with “death tax” and “car tax” doing the rounds … all just part of the rough and tumble of politics despite being completely false?
Do we really want to go completely reality free as just part of democracy?
dave @ #359 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 6:26 pm
Hm…so the guy who ran a months-long fear-campaign about how Labor was helping China invade Australia via some airstrips out in WA is doing billion-dollar business deals with Chinese companies for access to Australian land in WA.
Yeah, that makes perfect sense. 🙄
Sceptic
I guess the flipside to this is that in the coming parliament, Labor is going to be extra careful not to step on anyone’s toes and the Liberals are going to do anything they want because they think all the polls are skewed to Labor and always will be.
YBob
The IPA. Murdoch’s other ‘secret weapon’. Most of their young ‘fellows’ are dicks like Wilson.
And here’s the rub…….every time I open here, on the side bar is (still) “Coalition $6.00 Labor $1.12”
While betting is a bit of fun and maybe makes a few $$$$ for the astute, what this metric has to do with serious consideration of the state of play in politics is beyond me. For weeks, some regaled us here with the stretching/thinning of odds as if they had diddly squat to do with the real picture. Good luck to those who made a dollar, but this kind of stuff is puffery and should be totally ignored in future. In fact, not much better than the pollsters themselves. Who said tea leaves or chook’s entrails are unscientific?
Holden Hillbilly @ #750 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 6:16 pm
Reminds me of a very old Volvo joke…
“Do we really want to go completely reality free as just part of democracy?”
We already have.
Holden Hillbilly @ #342 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 6:16 pm
Yeah, fair enough.
It was obvious that something was wrong with the polls (due to the improbability of having so many 51-49 results in a row). But it wasn’t an attempt to portray a competitive race where none existed.
So clearly it must have been an attempt to frame Morrison’s absolutely status-quo result as a massive come-from-behind miracle victory! 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 5:54 pm
ShowsOn would add a frisson of excitement if he came back.
I want Edwina to return to PB
For goodness sake, forget the damn impact of the polls for the time being. They have turned out to be very unreliable and until such time as the poll outfits come clean on their methodology and lift their game, their prognostications should be treated with extreme care. Having been sucked in for the last number of years by these outfits, many will question their ability to add anything meaningful to political discourse for good or for bad.
Tell me, who is waiting with bated breath for the next Newspoll? Read Dr Kevin B’s blog today if you want a good read and some sober analysis on all this.
I honestly don’t know why any opposition would bother to develop detailed policies ever again. No one cares, listens or pays any attention. And they just end up making you a huge target. Just attack the Government incessantly and spread fake shit on social media. What a world we live in.
Question is, which is more viral? Lefty #fakeshit or righty #fakeshit?
shiftaling @ #794 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 6:57 pm
Depends. Which one gives more money to Facebook and Cambridge Analytica (or equivalent) to spread their #fakeshit around?
Tricot….the G-gizmo plays tricks on their supporters, who are usually Labor-leaning. The gizmo is an anti-Labor outfit. Their supporters are dupes….sad…but true.
“Madcyril says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 6:53 pm
I honestly don’t know why any opposition would bother to develop detailed policies ever again. No one cares, listens or pays any attention. And they just end up making you a huge target. Just attack the Government incessantly and spread fake shit on social media. What a world we live in.”
Abso-fucking-lutely
It just needs to have a small kernel of truth to be believable.
What’s the timeline for Albo v Bowen? First the members vote for a few weeks and then the parliamentary party? When does it start?
Jeez, and I’m presuming he will win, we’re going to be stuck with Anthony Albanese for 3 years, aren’t we?
What’s wrong with Albanese ? Isn’t he leftwise from Shorten?