Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
Labor lost Lindsay due to two reasons.
Labor had a public spat which included dumping the sitting member.
Voters there thought the government was coming to take their utes.
With the numbers as tight as they are, no-one’s going to be pushed onto the cross bench. In fact the Manager of Government Business is going to have their work cut out for them making sure every member shows up to every division for the next 3 years.
Fantastic outcome for the Greens post election. The stock market is up $34 billion.
The Greens: drag down Labor. Enabler the Big End of Town.
The Greens visition statement: 100% of nothing is always the best.
Prize for the stupidest comment of the year?
Not really, but close second to “negging”
What happened to “negging” BTW? I was expecting to be check out PB for my daily infuriation, and it’s nowhere to be found…
ltep says: Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 4:13 pm
I don’t think he was a good Speaker at all. He was far too beholden to what the government of the day wanted, for instance cancelling prescheduled sittings. He should’ve been sacked by the House for that.
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Warts and all ( and the many injustices he received ) the best speaker to me was Peter Slipper ……
There is nothing incorrect in voting in support of the government. In fact, I’d remove the provisions of constitutions barring the Speaker from a deliberative vote. The President of the Senate has a deliberative vote, votes routinely and is no more or less independent in the discharge of their duties as presiding officer. The so-called conventions are convenient and ignored if it doesn’t suit the government of the day.
On Gladys Liu, I see her as no more extreme than a lot in the Coalition.
Tim Wilson making a complete goose of himself on Karvelas. I think he’s drunk.
Boerwar forget the greens for a second and ask yourself what is convincing lower / middle class blue collar workers to vote Hanson/Palmer/ lnp over labor. And its not confined to qld either I’m a construction worker in Canberra. Very rare I see much interest in politics, occasionally you hear people bitching about the CFMEU or complaining about foreigners.
I suspect Bowen is the a candidate from the Labor right……………that is immaterial to me. I just don’t think he is all that good…………………..If he does get to lead, all bets are off for any likelihood of bridging the gap in the next little while. I don’t think he has done a very good job as Shadow Treasurer, he was all but invisible in the election campaign, and his Marie Antoinette “Let them eat cake” moment was sheer stupidity and arrogance. I see some sense in Albo with perhaps one of the younger brigade being blooded. Shame TP decided to opt out, but then the LNP are no respecters of even the common decencies when it comes to women…………………on the one hand they executed one of their best performers while Oz had to listen to the pontifications of the likes of Joyce on family matters when he was dudding his wife and family……………………….Morrison parading his wife and kids was a stupid thing to do, as one day, one of them may transgress and then he will claim the need for ” privacy” for his family. Time will tell I guess.
“Just realised how close this still is to minority government.”
Labor would an absolute fools to try to force an early-term by-election on grounds like s44.
They tried to do that in 1996 with Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and got royally pwned.
Another “Super Saturday” this year would see pro-government swings of +5% or more.
I think the Anti-Adani convoy did have a demonstrably negative effect on the Labor vote in Queensland. But to suggest it is primarily to blame for Labor’s defeat is, IMO, pretty silly. It was just one of a myriad different factors that led to this outcome.
There has been much talk on this site about new arrivals being some variation on trolls, shitstirrers or dickheads.
If they’re in the latter category, they will never be able to compete with the absolute master of dickheadedness though.
I gave you his latest masterpiece:
New guys, you will need to put in a superhuman effort to even be competitive with stuff like this.
I guess you could start by getting in training by imagining yourself to be some species of toxic invertebrate who lives by himself in a pond. By doing that you may (probably not) be able to be a contender.
It’ll still require an almighty effort to challenge the master though.
Stephen Jones working hard against the rabid Tim Wilson.
I can see the validity of using the word negging if it were referring to rhetoric to the effect of: “You are worthless, unelectable trash who have no hope of ever winning an election ever again unless you start listening to us, elect xyz etc.” while it is still slightly diminishing the meaning of the real tactic of abuse and manipulation that’s it’s named after, it’s just a colloquial allusion similar when people refer to gaslighting in a political context.
It’s annoying because people in this forum read words like that and then think it just means “said something I don’t like” and then just use it ad nauseam.
Asha Leu @ #657 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 4:30 pm
It is hardly the Greens fault that Labor thinks it can get away with both of these statements.
‘There is a role for coal’ and ‘Real action on climate change’.
Will Labor learn this most costly lesson ?
“Another “Super Saturday” this year would see pro-government swings of +5% or more.”
Not at all.
A vote next week could easily see Labor win.
There’s not enough in it for either side to have a solid claim.
Alpha Zero @ #645 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 4:18 pm
I always do. Both houses.
Rubbish Nostros………………….
Labor should be on the attack from Day 1.
It does not matter what the issue is, but it shows they mean business this time.
No niceties and nice cushy jobs (Rudd and Shorten both) and “reaching across the aisle”…………Go for the throat even if you miss from time to time. Call Morrison on out his “nicer” politics as was the case with Abbott. Abbott gone – worse PM we ever had – and Morrison can be sent the same way.
As an example, take Joyce……….he looked half pissed on election night……………………..so this is what we should expect, a boozy hypocrite who cheats on his wife and family?…………..
He is vulnerable……………Not that his electorate seem to care, but what does one expect from those areas? “Respectable” on the outside yet not so much on the inside.
If s44 suddenly disqualified a bunch of government MPs, I imagine that the following by-elections would return the government MPs with similar if not larger margins. People aren’t going to react in the slightest bit positively to being told their choice was wrong just a couple of weeks ago and Labor desperately want a reroll of the dice. If someone is violating the constitution, then yes, they need to be disqualified and retry, because that’s the law but don’t think it’s a second chance at all.
I absolutely consider Bowen a Simon Crean kinda choice, but credit where it is due i was impressed by his press conference. Quite impressed.
I think the play for Chalmers is to throw in with Albanese in return for shadow treasurer and an understanding that if by 2021 Albo is way behind then its ok to challenge.
These ALP rules involving the membership make sense in government and perhaps on the resignation of a leader but if they work to entrench a dud in opposition then that would be problematic?
Chris
boerwar cannot forget the Greens – he is obsessed with them. A psychologist might come to the conclusion that he once tried to join the Greens but they rejected him as being too batshit insane* to join even them.
* Let’s face it, anyone who projects their frustrations through an imaginary creature, is not all there, or is in serious denial about themself. On South Park Mr Garrison had Mr Hat through which to project his latent homosexuality. Boerwar has an imaginary blue ringed octopus friend through which he channels his unrequited love for the Greens. Unfortunately, just like Mr Garrison, boerwar has no real friends who could sit him down and help him accept his sexuality.
It’s sad, but there you have it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/21/oliver-yates-may-take-liberals-to-court-of-disputed-returns-over-deceptive-election-signs
@blobbit
I remember the coins we got in 88 as kids, that was a good crass move. Ive actually still got it. Aspirational if you will
On SMRs, if the reactor technology is proven, then there’s no good reason why we can sell uranium as a service to our south and SE asian neighbours who are ramping up coal-fired generation.
I’m looking at a string of countries from India to Vietnam.
Keep your eyes on the Tennessee valley
@asha leu
Why labor reacted to it is the odd point. Let the greens do what they want. They arent my cup of tea, but I don’t understand why there was a need to react.
So they pick up an extra seat at most, who cares
“if by 2021 Albo is way behind then its ok to challenge”
By what measure? Opinion polling?
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/public-servants-scramble-to-prepare-briefs-for-new-morrison-ministry-20190521-p51phw.html
I reckon Mike Kelly for labor leader. Mo factor.
@dan gulberry
Ive been here a long time, but was too intimidated to comment. After watching so long I have released arguments are often presented well linguistically on here, but not always clever
Expat Follower:
“Way behind” on what metric?
‘Labor should be on the attack from Day 1.’
We’re up to three already….
Sgi @ #666 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 4:53 pm
Do the best you can – them that don’t like you or agree with you can make their own arrangements – thanks so much etc. 😇
Chris:
Oh I like that idea. He’d remind the Tasmanians of Boonie!
caf @ #677 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 4:56 pm
The soon-to-be-established pollbludger preferred labor leader poll (PPLL poll) produced by Late Riser.
‘Chris says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 4:26 pm
Boerwar forget the greens for a second and ask yourself what is convincing lower / middle class blue collar workers to vote Hanson/Palmer/ lnp over labor. And its not confined to qld either I’m a construction worker in Canberra. Very rare I see much interest in politics, occasionally you hear people bitching about the CFMEU or complaining about foreigners.’
Labor has already commenced analysing where it went wrong.
Dirty Dick has announced that the election outcome is a triumph for the Greens.
I have yet to see a single Greens anywhere show the slightest comprehension that they are enablers of Murdoch et al.
caf @ #677 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 4:59 pm
No he’d remind us of Jim Bacon…
Not the caucus Fortnite league ladder then?
Thanks Joel.
At this time in 2016, the Big Green Schemers had a very different vision of what today in 2019 would be.
– Brexit was supposed to a faded memory; a fad wiped from public memory. Globalism was to be “In” again in 2019. The populist, nationalist ideas of putting one’s people first by politicians was to be long buried using the mass media control of the airwaves and internet to shame people into accepting globalism and open borders.
– Hillary was supposed to be in her 3rd year of fully incorporating and cementing the Paris Agreement obligations further into US policy. US would be making good on payments to the Climate Aid Fund. Having a Left-leaning Supreme Court rubber stamp whatever the Left proposed, both CPP and WOTUS anti-fossil fuel agenda would “executive branch written law” getting the Red states in line.
– Carbon taxes were to be proliferating everywhere to support more subsidies for Wind and Solar schemes. Green schemes that were to continue delivering on the promise of huge ROI payouts to Green Hedge Funds, green investment vehicles, and the Public Union Funds invested in those schemes.
– Western democracy governments around the world would be continuing to fall in line with Paris commitments, and of course everyone would still be ignoring China and India’s emissions in a state of see nothing, say nothing.
Oh how the last 3 years have altered their world. And it is crumbling right before their eyes.
ausdavo: “This is from a retired W.A. District Court Judge.
It’s a lengthy, but powerful message.
Thank you Michael for your continued wisdom.”
Presumably someone with a nice indexed defined benefit pension who doesn’t have to worry about whether he’ll run out of money for his comfortable retirement.
Give them the leadership election period a chance for the dust to settle and swapping old brooms with the new (especially because there’s still counting in that period and most of the airtime is just Coalition victory laps) but once that’s over and the new leader is in, I expect a different tact in opposition than the last six years. The Opposition Leader has to actually be a bloody opposition leader, not just somebody who seems like they are waiting for their turn. I am not saying nitpick, run to the hard left or be absolute unhinged wankers but “Wave it through and we’ll fix it in government. Steady as she goes…” has been a dismal failure. Anyone in the party structure who advocated it, should be relegated to licking envelopes.
By the way, how cute is Rex’s post at 3.40pm where he says Labor’s Qld problem is the CFMEU. You can tell all the people up there were pissed off with Labor not being Greener, byt the way they voted for the LNP.
Oh.
Way up thread from PDG, just cleared from moderation.
Food for thought.
Kudos to Wayne, but then there was a couple of Wayne’s. There’s only one Nath.
In fairness though Wayne made so many different predictions that one of them was bound to be correct.
William,
I believe Wayne’s prediction of the TPP on election night was 50.7-49.3 to the LNP, which was worse for the LNP than what they actually got!
Yes a r but the main Wayne called it. The other Wayne was just a mini Wayne.
Not sure I agree with that praise of Wayne. Judging by his rhetoric, I think it was a broken clock situation. Kinda like when the insufferables here occasionally correctly predict an unlikely Labor win.
Still, winners are grinners and he was more correct than I was.
Millennial says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 5:12 pm
William,
I believe Wayne’s prediction of the TPP on election night was 50.7-49.3 to the LNP, which was worse for the LNP than what they actually got!
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Not bad though. Not bad at all.