Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 3:16 pm
meher baba
I’ve had cancer. I’m due now for another CT scan that will cost me a few hundred out of pocket. The ALP people couldn’t tell me when they were going to be able to start paying for my scans and whether they would pay for the one I need now or should I defer it until after 30 June or later?
Take heart; your paying for sure.
Albo will turn out to be as left as the right side of the little toe on nath’s right foot.
“Secondly, does it result in a byelection if the hc finds they are invalid? Or do they get excluded from the count, their votes distributed according to preferences and it goes to the legitimate winner of the seat?”
By-election. See for instance Jacky Kelly 1996.
As for the advertising side, and i preface this by saying I am 37. I think both parties are seduced by social media and big data. It has it’s place for a large demographic, but so to do letters in envelopes with a salution and surname. Letters obviously cost more at first, but end cheaper, you need need about 2 staff to do the data verification, social media you have a whole team over paid comms frads. The printing game is a 1 cent business, companies that work in that space will even cop a loss for business, it doesnt have to be on gloss 200gsm paper. Targeted communication, and ditch mass texts and robocalls until 3 days before the election. Honestly… logistically mass targetered campaigns aren’t, and shouldnt be difficult
a r,
have a look at the essential from the week before the election.
ALP 34, GRN 12, LIB 36, NAT 2, PHON 7, OTH 9.
Liberal + LNP (QLD) + Country Liberal (NT) is currently 36.5%
ALP are on 33.85%
GRN are on 10.14%
NATS are on 4.9%
PHON + UAP is about 6.5%
OTH tallies to 8.4%
The biggest issues here seem to be high read for Greens and 1.9% low read for Nats.
Simon Katich,
The claims about the amount of renewables in SA always omit the reliance on the Interconnector to fossil fuel power stations in Victoria and NSW that enable the intermittent unreliable solar and wind to be mispriced into the market. And we’ve seen what happens without the interconnector.
And SA has the highest retail price for electricity in Australia and is up there close to #1 in the world.
@frednik
Yes in Victoria, under Bracks and Brumby they did seriously well for regional areas, I was refering to federal labor.
@Bucephalus
Yes, mention support for any export industry, no need to obesses over one. Whu single one out and get wedged
Tristo says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 2:12 pm
You must hate Catholics and Muslims being in Parliament.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 2:23 pm
Andy Murray says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 1:58 pm
Given how very safe modern reactors are, to be opposed to Nuclear power, as most of the Climate Alarmists are, is an ideological and unscientific position to occupy.
………………………………………………………………………
What a very odd relationship you have to science. It is obviously not based on knowledge.
Zoidlord @ #424 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 12:37 pm
Good grief !!!
If the dolt gets up then ScoMo will be the longest serving PM ever ..and then some.
Apologies for duplication. From a mobile phone this site is difficult to navigate
Probably the most disastrous single act by the Greens during the campaign was to convince Queenslanders to vote against Labor because of Adani.
The Convoy of course tickled the fancies of the Greens.
It was coupled with assertions from Dirty Dick that he was holding Labor to account (NEVER the Liberals to account) and promises of deals with Labor and exhortations to Shorten to negotiate with the Greens.
But it convinced lots of Queenslanders that the wealthy Down South persons in their leafy Green suburbs could not give a stuff for Queenslanders or their jobs.
The Greens, after 33 years, can now boast of having enabled Canavan, Dutton, Joyce, Taylor and the Jewel in the Greens Crown, Price.
nath @ #390 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 12:00 pm
Let me guess …Kim Carrs rat mob are the ‘anyone but Albo’ crew…?
I have a sneaky, however expensive campaign idea.
Instead of letter boxing, send small parcels. The population is primed for parcels, the DL size letterboxing doesnt work. Targeted parcels and letters with salutation last name mixed with social media.
I’m not opposed to it, per-se. But it will:
1. Take years (decades, probably) to ramp up.
2. Cost more than just doing renewables + storage.
3. Send a massive taxpayer-funded handout to overseas corporations, because there’s no local knowledge/industry to support nuclear, and no political will to build that in-house (we can’t even design/build our own submarines, ffs).
4. Have lots of headaches with waste storage/disposal, nonproliferation, and NIMBY-ness in general.
So in other words, it’s fine, but too slow and not really practical or economical. Better to do solar, wind, batteries, and pumped-hydro.
In my post of 2.57 p.m. could you please remove the following from the fourth paragraph:
“Or to “deals” like the Darling River water buybacks.”
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 3:34 pm
Price was on a +10% margin before the poll so blaming the Greens for her is a little unfair. But she did get a nice +4% swing.
Boerwar @ #611 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 3:34 pm
Rational leftists should be very concerned with the Boerwar types of Labor right who continue to ignore the glaring problem in Queensland being the Queensland CFMMEU.
Labor will never solve the Queensland issue until it accepts this and addresses their commitment to climate change.
You can’t have an each way bet on climate change. All in or run dead.
“Sgi says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 3:36 pm
I have a sneaky, however expensive campaign idea.
Instead of letter boxing, send small parcels”
With a little pile of cash in them. Vote for us and you’ll get one of these every month.
In my post of 2.57pm could you please delete the following from the fourth paragraph:
” Or to “deals” like the Darling River water buybacks.”
BoerWar,
So ALP was committed to matching the LNP’s $1.5BN spend on pipelines from NT Fracking Fields via Galilee Basin because they knew Adani was going to fall over? That is pure Billshit.
Anything Labor can do to support sitting MPs in building their local profile in their own electorate would be money well spent, if that’s a letter explaining the advocacy role that local MPs have, reaching out to constituents and inviting them to bring their concerns to the electorate office etc. Most young people would have no idea that their MP is actually elected to intervene on their behalf in many situations.
I know nothing about the internal workings but continued pre-election should definitely take into account how active the local member is. And really good local members held up as examples for all.
I realise factionalism probably makes this a pipe dream. But if there were a bit of a grassroots renaissance it would effectively be an impenetrable defensive wall to ‘swings against’.
Just realised how close this still is to minority government.
151 seats.
75 are declared for the coalition. There’s 3 more where they are leading, including by a margin of 50 in Macquarie. That puts them on 78 of 151 if they win all of them, with 73 on the opposition or crossbench.
But then the coalition needs to appoint a speaker. 77 vs 73.
But then Kevin Hogan, while being counted in the government’s 78, is not part of the government. He sits on the crossbench. So it’s 76 vs 74.
And if Susan Templeman can find 51 more votes in absentees, it becomes 75 v 75. In this case, the opposition, crossbench and the speaker will have the numbers to block government legislation in the house. They won’t have the numbers to pass legislation or vote no confidence (because they would t get the speaker).
If labor can find 51 more votes, then the coalition are in a weaker position than they were after the 2016 election.
I suspect Kevin hogan will be made an offer he can’t refuse, to get him to rejoin the coalition. I hear the position of deputy pm is likely to be available soon
Well, in theory, a Modern Thorium Nuclear Reactor is a much more safe, powerful and less wasteful than a 50’s-style Uranium Reactor.
The main problem is the ‘in-theory’ bit.
Jackal 2.42 pm
I agree let an outsider raise it and if it goes to court I think people might view this differently. This was a problem that the LNP said they fixed, nothing to see here.
Voice, the Speaker’s casting vote would just be used in the Government’s favour anyway, and Hogan won’t be a true cross bencher, even if that’s what he says he is.
“Well, in theory, a Modern Thorium Nuclear Reactor is a much more safe, powerful and less wasteful than a 50’s-style Uranium Reactor.”
Yup, Accellerator Driven Thorium could be a much safer option…… but no-one has one running as yet?
@blobitt
I am being serious. It doesnt need a pile of cash in a parcel at all. I have been involved in some pretty interesting campaigns, that should not have, however did, overlap with elections. Fortunately or unfortunately, there is alot one can do outside of social media.
People want the appearence of authenticity and the human touch, that doesn’t mean they want authenticity or the human touch, the appearance of it is more useful.
Good to see #LiarfromtheShire trending on twitter.
Happen a few more times and even the Canberra Press Gallery will notice and Morrison’s ability to simply lie his way out of problems will be sharply curtailed.
Sgi – didn’t mean you weren’t serious, or that it’s a bad idea.
Just given Aussies self interest, a pile of cash might help.
‘Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 3:39 pm
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 3:34 pm
Price was on a +10% margin before the poll so blaming the Greens for her is a little unfair. But she did get a nice +4% swing.’
By Greensanting Labor you enabled her Party to form Government.
It is absolutely impossible for you guys to deny that you are not damaging Labor. Deliberately.
That being the case, you own the consequences.
One of which is Dirty Dick’s Environment Minister: Price.
Enjoy.
OTOH, that could solve Labor’s coal miner problem in one fell swoop:
Just make the Coal Miners into Thorium Miners!
Voice Endeavour @ #620 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 3:43 pm
Yes – and thats before any challenges to eligibility of those elected.
Then there will be the issue of granting pairs – this time with the boot on the other foot.
The tories will have a new (untried & inexperienced) Leader of Government Business with Pyne gone.
Plus – above all *Events Dear Boy – Events*
“Just given Aussies self interest, a pile of cash might help.”
Maybe not real cash – fake money, bit sell it on “this is how much better off you’ll be under the ALP”
The left tends to resile from being crass. We probably shouldn’t.
Christ. Still in the denial phase.
South Australia is expected to reach 100% renewables in 2025. 100% renewables means South Australian will generate the equivalent of its demand from renewables.
Claiming this isnt so because SA is connected to the grid is just obfuscation. The claim was that SA’s renewable energy was nibbling at the margins and caused record prices. Both statements are patently false hence the need for the resident climate disaster enabler to change the goalposts.
Bucephallus:
The Minsky Moment? I.e. nothing in particular, but with levels of household debt second highest* in the world. and no-where near the financial discipline to maintain it without help from the government.
If-for example-a Government were unwise enough to cut immigration radically, then there will be a recession in real terms and that could well trigger something. Demand decline
Or-try to estimate the modal year of death for the baby boom… Supply increase
Not necessarily shocks, but possibly so.
US has the big advantage in deleveraging that many people can simply leave the keys at the bank and start again. Australia lacks that, but does have the advantage that (post 2007) most home lending is by the major banks. So probably it will bounce along at a level sustained by 120% debt to GDP, and oscillate between short periods of real wage growth and longer periods during which that growth is consumed by increased interest payments. It delights the Swiss to know they are renting from a bank (very efficient use of money, jah says the Gnome of Zurich) but Aus homeowners in the same situation will be appalled at the suggestion that rather than own, they are renting from their bank, even though the situation for recent home borrowers in Aus is exactly the same.
And then what happens when Australia has a labour shortage? No problem (in fact an opportunity) if we’ve been smart in the meantime and own key automation technology, but we’re not (B2B commerce in AUS is a hard market except for flim-flam like advertising, and at least until Saturday, polling)
* The Swiss are usually (or always?) highest, but they have the advantage of incredible financial discipline and are more or less immune to panic and by a long way the most financially literate population in the world for a major nation (I don’t know about Luxembourg, and of course there’s Lichtenstein etc…)
A Bowen/Fitzgibbon team would be something else…
a.r.
That is my point………..Greens high with Ipsos, below 10 on others and looks to be currently 12………..Take your pick – just like a raffle ticket………………………..When one poll has Labor on a 37 PV and on another 32 or 33 the polls are next to useless. Cuts the other way of course………….The Received Wisdom was that the Coalition could not win without a 4 in front of its PV. I can barely remember that happening in 3 years. But, lo and behold seems the PV may be above 40 after all…………………..Until they get their act together the polls are damaged goods and anyone using them for reference purposes are on quicksand in my view.
frednk @ #575 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 3:04 pm
Plus one. ✔
@ltep.
Assuming the speaker is the same as before the election, he genuinely respected the office. He never voted to manufacture a majority where one didn’t exist on the floor. He would not vote to pass any coalition legislation.
As for hogan. He is a national and won’t cause too much trouble. But it doesn’t change the fact that, if labor finds 51 more votes, the coalition cannot guarantee a majority on the floor of the hor for anything beyond confidence and supply.
And yes, as others said, there’s three years worth of resignations, dual citizenships and events that could plunge them further into minority government.
But if they go from majority government after last election to technically minority after this one, it starts the ‘chaos and confusion’ ball rolling from day 1
Maybe Williams’s Ph.D is actually in psychology and this blog is a front. In which case Boerwar is a prize specimen.
Regarding climate change: This election has shown two things, in my opinion:
1) The science doesn’t matter.
2) Australians are all for doing something about climate change…so long as they don’t have to spend a single penny or lift a single finger to do so.
It’s toxic for a generation; whatever global solutions (if any – unlikely) present themselves to climate change, Australia will be a deadweight on them. This is infuriating, but it’s also reality. If Labor campaigns on a strong environmentalist platform, Labor will get walloped every time. Thank you, Tony and Rupert.
And the next time some smelly Green tells you that Labor must – absolutely must – specifically promise to address their pet-peeve environmental project…tell them to get stuffed! If the smelly Greens want a say in Labor’s policies, they can join the party. Otherwise, they can STFU and do their usual dirty deals with the Coalition.
I don’t think he was a good Speaker at all. He was far too beholden to what the government of the day wanted, for instance cancelling prescheduled sittings. He should’ve been sacked by the House for that.
“Well, in theory, a Modern Thorium Nuclear Reactor is a much more safe, powerful and less wasteful than a 50’s-style Uranium Reactor.”
There’s plenty of stuff one could do , but western technology is based on the unusual requirements of nuclear submarines (corrosion etc.): Hyman Rickover was a bit of a genius and got not only about 20% of the DoD R&D budget for 20 years, but maybe 50% of DoE’s too. That’s about $50B/yr for twenty years in today’s money. That’s the scale required. Or maybe $150B/yr for ten years to do it quickly?
Smallish reactors are likely the only thing that could work in Australia as one probably needs at least a dozen to account for maintenance.
@Rex Douglas:
…Thanks, mate. Needed the laugh.
Tommy from earlier on………………
You are not the first person to note the decline in the LNP vote over the years. The MSM and other critics home in on the decline in the Labor vote – which is a reality. The political scene is fracturing.
It is fortunate for the LNP that all the N votes are geographically more localised than the Greens say………………so the 3% that the N’s contribute bring in 10 or 11 seats, or whatever, it currently stands at. Meanwhile a 10-12% PV for Greens gets them one whole lower house seat.
They tell me the bush hate the Greens. Not as much as I loathe the N tail which wags the Liberal dog. The $70 million spent by Palmer and his right-wing loonies, together with those racist bigots with Pauline, did not help the Labor cause one jot, but that’s democracy.
I would rather have their poison out in the open where we can seen it, rather than the drunken deals planned behind closed doors in the States with the NRA……………….If some in Oz thinks Pauline and Clive speak for them that is fair enough. That is their right as is my right to despise them and ridicule them where appropriate.
@ ltep- possibly, but beyond the scope of what I was talking about.
He never used his vote as a member of the HoR in an incorrect way. Therefore the government will be not be able to pass legislation using his tie breaker if it is otherwise 75 all
Yes, he did use powers of the speaker to benefit the government. Although less than Bronwyn did of course.
So with Gladys Liu looking like winning – how the hell was Chisholm even close??? You look on the flipside and labor got towelled in Lindsay (as they probably deserved there), it will hand majority on the floor but Liu is one who is even more insane than the average lib. Betting on her being pushed on to the cross bench first…
For future elections. Put the liberals last. Always.