I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
My main feeling is one of great sadness.
We had a chance to be a far better & nicer & fairer nation and we blew it.
Goodbye Murray-Darling, goodbye GBR, goodbye public education & TAFE, goodbye better health & education (especially pre-school).
Goodbye federal public service & the ABC (not to be missed so much); Hello global warming.
The list is long and the opportunities gone.
A note about polling.
A Liberal friend told me yesterday that he was polled on his mobile phone. Twice within 6 minutes. The first time he answered truly. The second time, for shits and giggles, he said he was a Clive Palmer voter who would direct his preferences to Labor.
In other words, polling methodology is a steaming load of crap right now. People are gaming it big time.
A few other comments:
I thought it was odd that Morrison repeatedly said that Labor and Bill Shorten were already getting ready to head to the Lodge, a strange thing for an incumbent to say. I was speaking to someone last night who suggested Labor had been setting the agenda so long they treated Labor like they were the Government, so transferred their resentments onto Labor.
On Leadership, my take is that “popular” often also means “untested” and can’t prosecute the case for difficult decisions. Labor needs to avoid any hype around a particular candidate. We need to remember that at the height of Jacindamania she still only got a portion of the vote slightly above what Labor did today and nearly didn’t form Government. The kind of enduring popularity can only occur in Government in the face of the good, the bad and the ugly – not a fawning media reporting on nothing of substance.
I think Jim Chalmers should lead Labor. He’s relatively young (41), well educated (Ph.D.), born and lives in Queensland, articulate, and somewhat charismatic.
What has been shown majority Australians who voted for the libs/nats and other pro coalition allied parties are bigger hypocrites and liars than the politicians are in wanting stability , trust , held accountable , corruption , good for the country and every day Australians ,
And Labor need to look for candidates like Zali Steggall. Socially progressive but economically conservative. Sad, but true, if you want to defeat the Liberals in Liberal-held seats and take these seats away from them. being pretty, a Barrister and a former Olympic Gold medalist would help too. 🙂
Any uk tories out there… Boris Johnston just the obvious play. He’ll romp it home
Confessions: “I’d prefer Jim Chalmers over Plibersek, Albo or Bowen to be honest.”
If I were an ALP member and able to vote, I’d be torn between Albo and Chalmers. Albo is a vastly superior communicator, but Chalmers has enormous potential to win seats in Queensland.
Perhaps you’re right. Chalmers would represent a completely fresh start.
I think the likelihood is that, if Plibersek does run, she is highly likely to win. The branch members seem to love her, and the parliamentary party and unions will be reluctant to be seen to be voting against a strong female candidate.
But Plibsersek as leader would represent a step in the wrong direction IMO.
booleanbach
Goodbye the voice from Uluru.
Hello more poverty, domestic violence, homelessness, prejudice, hate speech, suicides.
Steggall needs to give a big shout out to Get Up…….for the free campaigning.
I don’t think Tony Bourke should run either. Nice guy, but also a big part of the leadership group who led Labor astray and didn’t choose to go for the Coalition jugular but relied on Labor being the principled policy party in an age of Social Darwinism:
Many Social Darwinists embraced laissez-faire capitalism and racism. They believed that government should not interfere in the “survival of the fittest” by helping the poor, and promoted the idea that some races are biologically superior to others.
Oh and yeah, Labor, pick someone from Queensland. Essential.
The simple answer is:
Australians think the current policy settings (tax levels, benefit payments etc) are broadly right.
The are satisfied with the way things are going, and don’t particularly want significant policy changes.
Cofessions,
Libs are ahead in Chisholm at present. Hope it changes.
In other news, some of the signs for our candidate, on people’s private property, were defaced by drawing a niqab over Shireen Morris’s face. When her husband related that to the Lib scrutineer we were with she complained about having glasses and moustaches drawn on Sukkar’s posters. When he responded, “yeah, but that’s not racist, is it?” it shut her right up.
Are we going to see this kind of dishonest, nasty, negative campaigning every election now?
I feel profoundly depressed today, and I empathise with others feeling as I do. With the clock ticking on climate change it’s now obvious no government in the near future will act on it in any meaningful way. I can’t really take issue with Labor over their platform which I found attractive in many ways. Nor Bill Shorten himself, as the relative merits of two leaders’ speeches last night confirmed. I’ve never subscribed to that adage ‘the electorate always get it right’ because I’m quite certain that yesterday they got it so completely wrong. I’d prefer to say that Australia got the government it deserves.
My possibly vain hope is that the merits of climate change action will become increasingly obvious to business and that government will be undercut in this space. As for a future Labor leader I found Dr. Jim Chalmers to be pretty impressive but I have no clue how Labor will go about re-inventing themselves to be competitive, particularly in Queensland, without casting off every vestige of what makes them Labor.
My take-out is that National laws and policies arent fine grained enough to cater to the vastly different values people have in different states.
We need a period of de-nationalisation, take power away from the federal government and give it back to the states. States are best placed to understand their people and their difference to the rest of the nation.
My final contribution
In reflection I was a child of the very powerful image on black and white television of John F Kennedy and “Ask not what your Country can do for you, ask what you can do for your Country”
Today, at just turned 74 years of age I have reflected – and a reality has appeared
The consequence in part is that I have resolved (also on behalf of my wife) to ascertain tomorrow how, given that my wife and I exit Term Deposits starting in a month’s time because of maturity dates AND instead invest in Bank Shares, seeking out dividends AND Franking Credits from the ATO, how does the ATO know we exist for the purpose of remitting to us?
Because our circumstances are that we are not required to submit tax returns
To recover the remittances from government we have not availed of (by choice), neither my wife nor I will continue to support by donation, because those donations are not tax deductible to either of us
We will leave donating to those who are able to obtain recognition from government thru the tax system
Divine intervention has consequences
The character of the Nation of Australia has consequences
What is in it for ME
Enjoy the new world order – and if you were an ultimate beneficiary of the donations my wife and I make to medical research all the very best to you in the future
My wife and I are now focussed on ourselves and our immediate family
Not community
If the ABC isn’t totally disrupted by the coalition, their cost reduction should be led by sacking all high paid “presenters” and focusing their news and current affairs on basically factual reporting and analysis.
Also cut back on anything that focuses on demographics which will protect loudly.
The polls are wrong because people feel they have the right to keep their vote secret or are made to feel guilty about wanting a tax cut etc, so they fib or hang up. Same when you doorknock or man a booth; people nod, agree to get you away; they take every how to vote or hustle through and take none.
One small lesson to learn. Labor’s much vaunted ground game is a myth. Libs outnumbered Labor 4-1 on local booths, through pre-poll and on the day.
Four of us did 11 hours on one booth with two gates. 14 Libs did shifts. Libs had 10 times more signage. Three of us put signs up at 3 booths. Libs had dedicated teams at each.
The right is focused and work together. One message repeated over and over. Progressives fight and undermine each other. Factions within Labor, Labor v Greens, unions running different campaigns, Get Up swallowing donations and people and annoying locals. PB comments a perfect microcosm.
Labor saw blocking budgets as a triumph. Many people suffered no pain so why risk change? Labor got no credit, Coalition got no blame. People said “parties are all the same”. Let people experience the government they voted for and see if they like it.
Dovif:”The economy is going well people have jobs the budget is back in surplus the government is generally delivering. ”
Not to sure that the economy is going that well, or if it is it is not filtering to most people.
The “Surplus” is more a house of cards whilst the structural deficit is still in place, and the Liberals show no signs of having either the ability or will to properly address it, what will they do when the effects of a downturn start to become apparent ?
People may have jobs, but those jobs are increasingly casual, or part-time, and those jobs quickly evaporate as the economy tanks. Further, whatever happened to job security ?
As for the budget being back in surplus, see my point about the structural deficit.
The Liberals are generally playing a pea and thimble game with the economy, as they have always done, and always will, and the coming downturn will expose just how flimsy the house of cards that they have constructed really is
It is now clear that Australia is a bourgeoisie nation. They do not care if the rivers run dry. They do not care if the planet overheats. They do not care if their children’s education is inadequate. Just do not touch their tax lurks.
One Merle Haggard US country singer sang about the mighty Kern River and loss of love.
to this not long before his recent death.
Farewell Merle, farewell Murray/Darling, farewell ABC. 😢😢
Bugler:
Yes I saw photos of those defaced posters yesterday. Very nasty, and just the kind of place Australia has become in recent years.
I had not watched Sales for some time, but had not particularly believed peeps who said that she was a Lib lover. But last night she showed her true colours when she attacked Labor on the ‘mediscare’ – “You did it too”. Fiery and furious.
The big target strategy gave this shit government the win.
Plibersek, lovely but no!
List who i think would not improve Labor chances as leaders more than Shorten
Anthony Albanese – Too media friendly and coalition policy friendly
Tanya Pilbersek – She will unfairly be attacked as being too close to Shorten , smear and fear by the media, will she be aggressive enough , i dont think so
Tony Burke – Will be attacked similar to Tanya Pilbersek, credit i would give him he would be more aggressive than Tanya
Chris Bowen – Same as Tanya Pilbersek , not aggressive enough
—————————————————————
Has the increase in the “Shy Tory” come about with the rise of the “Aggressive Progressive”?
There is always some level of dirty tricks etc in an election but some of the things that stick in my mind are egging, faeces, swaztikas, posters of Abbott.
@Peter Stanton
I have a number of American friends, when I share them stuff about political discourse in Australia both in my day to day and in the media. One thing they are truly shocked by is the extent of racism and some degree misogyny in the political discourse.
Also they share things about the political discourse in their country. I would argue they are light years ahead of us when it comes to honestly debating about the extent of racism in their society. Look at Black Lives Matter and the movement to tear down Confederate Monuments among many examples. That is much more than I can say for Australian society.
They outnumbered us on our booth, but they always do, and I figured it is because this is a very safe Liberal seat.
Although on a positive, Labor did get a very minor swing to it here. #takethewinsyoucan
Lets wait on the final count, before we start talking about the polling. Sure looks like its wrong, but who knows what the last quarter of votes holds …
Some PBs who saw the close polls as a Murdoch conspiracy cannot believe it reflected the views of the ordinary Australian – particularly older australians who don’t like change and losing entitlements.
That’s another pile of crap!
Mediscare was based in a known reality.
It was not fantasy, so why can’t that be defended?
Another lie that has become truth.
Morning all. I’ll be taking a break from PB to recover after last night. It was an extremely disappointing evening after what promised to be a turn of the tide. I will be back. There are too many good people here. But for now I need a break. Take care people.
And a big thank you to William. You are a generous host.
Would Terri Butler be the aggressive leader Labor is looking for
Would Joel Fitzgibbon be the aggressive leader Labor is looking for
Would Mark Dreyfus be the aggressive leader Labor is looking for
HH: Murdoch is in no different a situation than the rest of us, it is still reasonable to conclude he was campaigning for the LNP (as always).
Late Riser:
Enjoy your sabbatical, and thank you for all you did facilitating our poll guesses and the like.
D @ #182 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 8:31 am
Because the Coalition say say and say so and say so. And the media repeats it and repeats it and repeats it.
Mr and Ms Money are sick with disappointment for what has transpired. There is so much wrong with our democracy that hope feels crushed.
The only positive I can see is that Australains are so buffered against reality that they perceive no detriment in voting against wanting to make improvements to the status quo.
The hypocrisy of an electorate that claims to want honesty and stability, but elects a cabal of corrupt self-interested hate filled internally riven and incompetent sheisters is breathtaking. Presented with the holy grail of actual policies honestly presented they have scorned the offering
Labor needs to choose a leader with a deep, resonant voice. Then get them to behave like a junkyard dog defending their territory and attacking whoever is on the other side of the fence.
AN electorate that rewards such a crappy government can only expect more of the same.
The ‘pox on both your houses’ argument is a crock which is destructive to democracy and only favours the party that really has the pox
I wouldn’t mind seeing Jim Chalmers take the job on . He is young enough, bright enough and, dare I say it, attractive enough.
Commentators talked about the 1993 election result.
Opposition Leader with much the same tactics – spelt out his agenda, concentrated on town hall style meetings…
1993 was a miracle win for Labor, but that was the high point. After that, it was all downhill until the inevitable election wipe out.
Morrison is a happy clapper. He now believes he is God. The last leader we had with those kinds of delusions was Abbott, and he didn’t last long.
d-money
Agree. ‘They’re both the same’ was always a lazy excuse for lack of thought.
BK @ #192 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 8:43 am
You HAVE to say it in the social media age, BK.
Its a shame Kim Carr was not a member in the house of reps ,
I think it would help Labor to have a bellower and use them in a way , like a Joe Hockey attacking Labor
Labor NEEDS bragadocious bellowers!
Folks, quit it with all this doom and gloom stuff. Fundamentally we were led badly astray by the public polling and I think our main emotion should be one of disgust with the Australian public pollsters who are unprofessionally untransparent by international standards. Had we known that the Coalition was in a much stronger position undoubtedly Labor would have gone to the election with an altered policy platform if not leader. If I’m not mistaken, the Coalition needs 77 seats in order to both elect a speaker and have a floor majority, and that’s certainly not even close to set in stone yet. The vast majority of the crossbench are in favour of action on climate change so we may well still see action on that front.