12.06am. “We’re bringing back Macquarie”, says Scott Morrison in his victory speech. Not so fast — Labor have just hit the lead there. And not because of that Katoomba pre-poll booth I mentioned a few times earlier, which barely swung on two-party preferred.
11.13pm. Kerryn Phelps has her nose in front in Wentworth, but I would note that the Rose Bay pre-poll hasn’t reported yet. It wasn’t a booth at the 2016 election but was at the by-election, and when it came in, there was a pretty handy shift to the Liberals. Also outstanding is the Waverley pre-poll booth, which does a very great deal of business.
10.59pm. The Liberals have edged into the lead in Boothby, after Glenelg pre-poll swung 4% their way (though Brighton went 3% the other way).
10.57pm. Labor just hanging on in Cowan, well out of contention now in Swan, and every other WA seat they hoped to win.
10.56pm. I was suggesting Labor wasn’t home in Moreton before. Probably safe now. But Mansfield pre-poll swung 14.4% to Coalition, while Rocklea and Wooldridge didn’t move.
10.39pm. With 45.8% counted, South Australia looks like three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Centre Alliance performing weakly at 2.8%.
10.38pm. Oh, and by the way — Clive Palmer is on 3.4% in Queensland and is being flogged by One Nation.
10.38pm. Jacqui Lambie is on 8.7% in Tasmania and should be back. The result should go two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. 58.2% counted.
10.35pm. One Nation are on over 10% in Queensland, where I’m inclined to think the most likely result is Coalition two, Labor two, Greens one, One Nation one, with 33.4% counted.
10.34pm. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens in Victoria too, with 32.4% counted. But maybe Labor could take a third seat off the Coalition, if their position improves as more metropolitan votes come in. No one else is cracking 3%.
10.32pm. Some early indications from the Senate. Starting in New South Wales, with 35.6% counted. One Nation aren’t doing great at 5%; United Australia Party tanking on 1.4%. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens.
10.30pm. Labor leads 1.3% in Lilley, which Nine projects down to 0.5%. One pre-poll in swung slightly more heavily than the 5.2% norm; two more are still to come.
10.28pm. Labor leads 2.3% in Blair, which the Nine computer projects down to 0.9%. One pre-poll booth, Ipswich South, swung typically; two more are outstanding.
10.21pm. That Katoomba pre-poll booth in Macquarie which Anthony Albanese said had swung heavily to Labor still isn’t in the system. Labor has a raw lead of 1.3% lead there, but absent pre-polls (Katoomba and five others), the Nine computer projects absolutely nothing in it.
10.19pm. A 9.8% swing has reduced Labor to a 4.9% lead in Hunter, projected to be 2.7%. Should be okay for them, but the one pre-poll booth swung 14.1%, and there are eight still to come, whih are worth keeping at least half an eye on.
10.16pm. Labor leads 2.8% in Eden-Monaro, Nine computer projects 1.3%, 1.6% swing to Liberal. There are eight pre-polls, none of which have reported.
10.14pm. Labor leads by 2.0% in Dobell after a 3.5% swing to Liberal, with the Nine computer projecting 1.4%. Two pre-polls, Tuggerah and The Entrance, have swung normally. Pre-polls yet to come from Charmhaven and Gosford.
10.10pm. Independent Helen Haines holds what the Nine booth projects as a 1.8% lead in Indi: two pre-polls in, Wodonga, which swung heavily to Liberal, and Mansfield, which swung only very slightly (by swing here, I mean compared with Cathy McGowan’s margin of 4.8%). Wangaratta pre-poll still to come. Very much too close to call.
10.04pm. The Nine computer now projects a tiny lead for the Liberals in Chisholm. Four pre-polls still to come may decide the result. The one pre-poll that has reported, Blackburn North, swung 1.6% to Labor.
10.02pm. The yo-yo of Swan has swung back in favour of the Liberals, while Labor maintains only a fragile lead in Cowan. Still nothing in it in Boothby, Labor very slightly ahead.
9.44pm. Labor has very tenuous leads in Blair and Lilley, so there’s certainly paths to a Coalition majority. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on include Corangamite, Eden-Monaro and Moreton.
9.42pm. Now it’s getting very close in Chisholm. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on yet include Corangamite, Dobell, Eden-Monaro,
9.39pm. Spoke too soon about Swan — close again now.
9.34pm. Particularly remarkable results from scanning around include double-digit two-party swings against Labor in Hunter, Capricornia and, would you believe it, Dawson. The latter two suggest a very strong Adani effect.
9.30pm. Another blow for Labor with Swan now looking beyond their reach. However, they have moved ahead in Cowan, so it looks like status quo in WA.
9.21pm. Anthony Albanese just said on Nine that there is a big swing to Labor on the Katoomba pre-poll centre in Macquarie, which is not in the system yet. That should save Labor’s bacon there.
9.17pm. Very advanced stage of the count in Bass, with even the pre-polls in, and Labor look too far behind.
9.05pm. Both Labor-held Cowan and Liberal-held Swan are very close, but Liberals looking good in Hasluck, Pearce and Stirling. At best though, a net gain of one for Labor in WA.
8.54pm. And if all goes well for the Liberals in WA, the door widens a little on the prospect of a Coalition majority.
8.51pm. First results look encouraging for Christian Porter in Pearce. Ditto Stirling, but very few votes there. Some results in Cowan, looks close, but too early to be meaningful. First booth looks good for Liberal in Hasluck. Individually all too early to say, but collectively discouraging for the notion that WA might save the day for Labor.
8.48pm. Given pre-polls heavily favoured the Liberals at the Wentworth by-election, I would read the present lineball result as somewhat encouraging for the Liberals.
8.45pm. Haven’t said a thing about Wentworth — it looks very, very tight. A number of the independents failed to mark much of a mark, including Kevin Mack in Farrer and Rob Oakeshott in Cowper.
8.38pm. Labor looks okay in Solomon; the CLP leads on the raw vote in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them ahead, because these are mostly conservative booths from Katherine and such.
8.29pm. Another big picture overview. In New South Wales, Labor wins Gilmore but loses Lindsay; Tony Abbott loses Warringah. Labor-held Macquarie could go either way. Labor wins Chisholm, Corangamite and Dunkley. Tasmania: Labor loses Braddon and looking shaky in Bass. Queensland: Labor to lose Herbert and Longman, Leichhardt looking unlikely now. In South Australia, the potential Labor gain of Boothby is lineball. Talk that Labor is in danger in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them in the lead, and there’s nothing from Solomon yet. Nothing meaningful yet from Western Australia. My best guess remains that the Coalition will land just short of a majority, but the wild cards of WA and pre-polls remain in the deck.
8.20pm. By best guess is that the Coalition will land a few seats short of a majority, but again: nothing yet from WA, and the possibility it will play out differently on pre-polls. The likely cross bench: Adam Bandt, Zali Steggall, Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, Rebekha Sharkie … possibly Helen Haines, probably not Kerryn Phelps.
8.14pm. I’ve been doing real work for the last half hour, but the situation hasn’t fundamentally changed: a few gains for Labor in Victoria, maybe a net gain for the Coalition in New South Wales, Braddon and possibly Bass lost by Labor in Tasmania as well, and a net loss for Labor in Queensland. Boothby lineball though, and Labor praying for gains in Western Australia and a favourable dynamic on pre-polls.
7.48pm. Macquarie lineball, but looking better for Labor than earlier.
7.46pm. Also, the first results in Boothby are good for Labor.
7.45pm. Looking better for Labor now in Lilley though.
7.40pm. Labor should gain three in Victoria; but only Gilmore looks strong in NSW, they look like losing Lindsay, and they’re in trouble in Macquarie. In Queensland, the Nine computer has Labor behind in Blair, Herbert, and Longman, but it’s not calling any of them. However, they are running Warren Entsch close in Leichhardt.
7.33pm. I’m certainly not seeing any gains for Labor in Queensland, and they’re in trouble in Herbert, Longman and Lilley. But Tony Abbott is clearly gone in Warringah.
7.29pm. Looks close in Herbert, but Labor are struggling in Queensland in some surprising places: Lilley
7.26pm. Labor should win Chisholm, Dunkley and Corangamite, but the seats further down the pendulum in Victoria don’t appear to be swinging
7.23pm. Lineball in Macquarie as well.
7.22pm. Looking dicey for Labor in Lindsay as well.
7.21pm. Still nothing in it in Bass, Liberals looking like winning Braddon.
7.19pm. Early assessment: it’s going to be close. Labor far from assured of a majority.
7.18pm. But it’s looking good for Labor in Gilmore.
7.13pm. Early days, but I’m not seeing any great wave to Labor. They are struggling in the two northern Tasmanian seats, and only looking really good in Corangamite in Victoria. And it looks close early in Griffith, a seat they hold in Queensland.
7.12pm. Early indications are that it’s close in Chisholm – six booths in on primary, two on two-party (50 in total).
7.09pm. Labor have moved ahead on Nine’s projection in Bass, but remain behind in Braddon.
7.08pm. If nothing else, the news from Queensland is consistently looking good for the Coalition.
7.06pm. The swing to LNP in Bonner I noted earlier has come off, now looking status quo (LNP margin 3.4%).
7.05pm. Dreadful early numbers for Tony Abbott, who trails 40.3% to 32.5% on the raw primary vote with five booths out of 50 in.
7.02pm. The Nine computer sees a 3.9% swing to Labor in Corangamite, where there is no margin.
7.01pm. Related by Chris Uhlmann, Labor believes they have won Corangamite. But the overall picture in Queensland for the Coalition looks strong, as per the exit poll result.
7.00pm. Early numbers looking encouraging for Peter Dutton in Dickson — a swing approaching 5% in his favour off four booths.
6.58pm. Labor look to have the edge in Gilmore, with 13 booths out of 66 on the primary vote – Liberal down 17.4% of which 12.7% has gone to the Nationals, while Labor are down very slightly. Ex-Liberal independent Grant Schultz only on 5.3%.
6.56pm. Four booths in from Braddon, and Labor looks in trouble. One booth in from Bass, swing looks almost exactly equal to the Labor margin.
6.54pm. Based on four primary vote results and a speculative preference throw, the Nine computer sees a 4.25% swing to Labor in La Trobe, suggesting it will be tight.
6.52pm. First two-party result in Bonner is encouraging for LNP incumbent Ross Vasta.
6.51pm. The first two-party booth from Corangamite, which is obviously in the country, has swung 5.4% to Labor.
6.50pm. Little swing in Macquarie with three booths in on two-party (it goes without saying these are small ones).
6.47pm. Gilmore looks close with eight booths out of 66 in on the primary vote.
6.43pm. First two booths from Kooyong, albeit very small ones, look encouraging for Josh Frydenberg.
6.42pm. Promising early numbers for independent Helen Haines in Indi, with 13 bush booths in on the primary vote.
6.38pm. Some fairly encouraging early numbers for Nationals member Kevin Hogan in Page, a marginal seat in northern New South Wales that Labor was never confident about.
6.35pm. Over 1000 votes in from Calare, and early indications are Nationals incumbent Andrew Gee will keep enough of his primary vote to hold off Shooters, if they indeed make it ahead of Labor to reach the final count. Early days yet though.
5.45pm. Welcome to live blogging of the federal election count. I have been working in what little time I have had to spare on an election results facility, but I probably won’t be able to get it in action this evening. However, I should be able to make it functional for the count after election night. Similarly, I may or may not find time to do some live blogging this evening, in between my duties as a behind-the-scenes operator for the Nine Network’s coverage. Speaking of, the YouGov Galaxy exit poll for Nine, from a sample of about 3300, has Labor leading 52-48, which I’m pretty sure presumes to be effectively nationally, even though only specific marginal seats have been targeted. State by state though, the swing is, as expected, uneven: 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (2.5% swing to Labor), 55-45 in Victoria (3.2% swing to Labor), 53-47 to Coalition in Queensland (a swing to the Coalition of 1.1%), and 52-48 to Labor in the other three states combined (a swing to Labor of 2.5%).
Who does everybody think will the next Labor leader?
Anyway I been looking at the election results and I am predicting a minority Coalition government.
Hamish Macdonald
Verified account @hamishNews
54s55 seconds ago
Hearing @billshortenmp is a couple of minutes away from arriving at the ALP function in Melb #10YourVote
When the recession bites and even the full-time jobs dry up (as they will) Labor need to hammer the libs as to why the lack of any viable stimulus, ala 2007
The ALP need to remind the libs that it was Labor that saved Australia from the GFC recession
When the jobs that are lost dont return, but instead are replaced by automation (as will happen) the ALP have to hound the Libs about their lack of any fiscal remedy to help transition those whose jobs that have evaporated into new industries.
The ALP has to hammer the Libs that instead of running a structural deficit where is the spending on rebuilding the NBN, after it inevitably collapses and causes a drag on the economy as a result.
Forget about climate etc, its important, but it needs to provide the electorate with a viable alternative to the mindless austerity and high end tax-cuts that are the only answers that the Liberals have
and remember hubris will be the Liberals downfall always will was and always will be
Antony Green having a very mediocre night. So too his computer projections.
Re Queensland: I think it’s wrong to suggest that Labor’s policies on climate change were the main cause of their poor result up there.
Sure, the voters of Herbert and Capricornia aren’t too big on climate change. But pollsters have consistently shown that voters across Brisbane tended to have a fairly similar profile in terms of their attitude towards the issue of climate change to those of other major cities.
Labor looks like it has performed consistently badly in marginal outer suburban seats across the country because IMO they had a narrative and a package of policies which told aspirational voters that Labor couldn’t care less about them. Brisbane has a lot of outer suburban areas, and these are covered by the key electorates that Labor was attempting to win.
So it would be a mistake IMO for Labor to conclude that, in future, it mustn’t run with strong policies on climate change.
Keating would not have said coal was dead if he was in Shorten’s position – because regional QLD clearly still depended on it.
God knows the next QLD state election is going to go.
“My problem with Labor is their strategy, not their policy.”
They believed people when they said they wanted honest policies.
Next platform should just be $10,000 for every person and free solar panels.
This really does prove that all that matters is winning.
Zeh,
I reckon the cross section of educated, non-racist, non-selfish swinging voters was just too small.
This is precisely the wrong starting point for analysing the reasons for the election outcome.
Zed Seselja has gone below 30% in the ACT, but I am not sure if the Greens candidate can get enough numbers to get the second spot.
“Yes. Mr Keating did say coal is dead. We have to stop exports.
Bill Shorten said no we won’t do that. Confirming weakness to the voters.”
Fool. So all those folk in Dawson, Herbert, Flynn, Capricornia etc etc (even Hunter) we’re just aching for Shorten to say “coal is dead” and they would have flocked to labor?
wow Sindodinos effectively saying the government is a one man band.
swamprat @ #1357 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 10:36 pm
He can give as many as he likes. He ain’t getting my vote
I’m calling it for Phelps in Wentworth now.
Not based on any rigorous analysis, just a gut call.
The polls are obviously fucked. Everything was wrong. The whole point of this site is redundant.
Andy it’s fairly clear Queenslanders bought clives shit, in apparently just the right amounts that maximised the benefits to the libs
Andy Murray @ #1434 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 11:03 pm
I think the starting point is ‘how long now before Dutton knifes Morrison’?
Although Antony is saying 76 seats for the Coalition I can easily see it being higher than that, up to 78-80 seats. You have to watch some of the close Labor held seats like Blair and Lilley as prepolls (and then postals) are added.
Talking about Clive not getting a seat misses the point. He owns the government, which has been re elected on the back of his $$$.
The Queensland ALP government did significant damage to the Shorten ALP in Queensland
Hear hear Andy Murray. You never win by blaming the voters.
“wow Sindodinos effectively saying the government is a one man band.”
Yep it is now. Now he can implement all the Christian Fundy policies he likes.
Compulsory school chaplains.
People were wondering about what impact Hawke’s death would have. It just occurred to me that there really was an impact: people looked back at his government and realised this current leadership team is a poor shadow of the Hawke/Keating team.
“I think the starting point is ‘how long now before Dutton knifes Morrison’?”
Not a chance. Morrison is going to be safe until he loses an actual election.
Sinodinos really wants the LNP to have a credible climate change policy. He’s alluded to it several times.
Kate McClymont
Verified account @Kate_McClymont
2m2 minutes ago
Kate McClymont Retweeted Nick O’Malley
Currently Phelps 51.4 and Sharma 48.6%
Does Leigh look too happy right now and Tingle look really sad?
Look at the upside.
The NBN will become a PR disaster on the Liberals’ watch.
So, what’s the list of ‘moderate’ libs in government ranks looks like now?
Sinodinos is dreaming on climate policy. It’s going nowhere under the current government.
The demographic has changed.
Hordes of young people voted Liberal today.
The other was people born overseas.
We’re a minority
AE
I may or may not be right in my solution.
However I haven’t backed a failing strategy.
I have been saying consistently before and now after the election.
Authenticity and the strength that comes from that.
I even pointed to Marriage Equality where Labor was on the winning side
Labor embraced it wholeheartedly and won.
The Surney results were very clear.
The problem Labor has had with environment policy is it looks weak because it’s “doing the practical”. Not going strong on the greatest moral challenge of our time. Not dealing with it as the Climate crisis it really is.
Instead it’s been let’s appease the deniers and pretend bipartisanship is possible.
Big A Adrian
I wondered more whether people who had been hurt by ‘the recession we had to have’ had bad memories stirred up.
LNP back to 74 / Labor on 65.
No clear winner tonight.
“Sinodinos really wants the LNP to have a credible climate change policy. He’s alluded to it several times.”
He may well do, and many in the Libs might want it as well. They didn’t win the election though.
I suspect what’s left of the LNP moderates are going to be neutered.
Should we have a poll on how much the ABC is going to be defunded?
My guess of 91 seats was a bit optimistic, i think.
@Andrew_Earlwood
I argue is more that these regions are jobs starved and a project like Adani represents the prospect of a considerable number of jobs. I look overseas and if a major political party was promising something like a Green New Deal, which would de-carbonize the economy, along with creating lots of green, well paying secure jobs and new industries. Then people in these regions would not the least bit enthusiastic about Adani.
That’s better, Zeh.
It’s a marketing failure, much, much more than a policy failure.
(It’s one thing where bemused was spot-on.)
Dovif @ #1445 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 11:06 pm
And to Labor generally with their crazy regulation change about who can install solar panels on large solar projects.
“Cud Chewer says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 11:09 pm
Look at the upside.
The NBN will become a PR disaster on the Liberals’ watch.”
Cud, that’s gone. That’s always going to be an ALP thing. No one really cares.
Andrew my big fear about this election and why I was never supremely confident is that Australians don’t toss out federal governments very often.
I was quite young when Whitlam won so I can’t really comment on that, but in 75 the economy was a mess, in 83 it was in stagflation, 96 was 93 but without a gst, it was punishment for the early nineties recession, 2007 was work choices and 2013 was carbon tax,
In other words all of the above were either an economic meltdown or the incumbent government doing something really unpopular.
The economy is not booming but it is not in meltdown and this government hasn’t done any one really big unpopular thing, it’s salami slicing it’s way to it’s long term objectives.
That Labor didn’t win isn’t a complete shock as in a way historical precedent was against them, the magnitude of the defeat however emphasises the need for a serious rethink about what the party stands for and who it advocates on behalf of.
Labor has been gentrifying and following the path of the democrats for a couple of decades, but we don’t have the huge ethnic minority vote the usa has (and without which the democrats would not be competitive) so that path ain’t gonna work down here
Andrew Earlwood
Labor tried your approach. It failed.
Labor has a PV in QLD of <28%. 32% Metro, 24% rural.
24%
That's your problem. That's why the LNP is picking up seats there.
Labor has stopped speaking for these people.
Evening all. What a depressing result. I cannot say I predicted this. I was not a fan of Shorten but I liked his campaign. I thought it was honest, courageous and targeted the nations’s real problems. ScumMo instead gave us a pack of lies and undeliverable promises, mixed with some nasty negative tactics. Yet the majority seemed to have liked that. Sadly I must conclude that more than 50% of Australians will blindly vote for tax cuts that will only benefit the less than 5% of people who are on over $200k. Perhaps the most corrupt Federal government Ever has been reelected.
Labor must hold ScumMo to every lie he has told to win office. And after the lies he has told to keep power, ScumMo has a mandate for nothing. Labor and Greens in the Senate should oppose everything ScumMo sends up, except any legislation for a real solution to climate change.
Why does Labor have to be authentic?
The Libs are the most inauthentic government I’ve ever seen. “ScoMo” FFS.
So it looks like the only real ALP gain all night was Gilmore, even Chisholm is now with a Liberal lead.
QLD is a colossal disaster, that will have to be addressed by the national executive ASAP, what did go wrong up there?
Obviously Shorten’s got to resign as leader, actually resigning from parliament in some months time might be a good idea too, and Bowen needs to step down as Shadow Treasurer too.
My pick for the next opposition leader is Jason Clare – from Western Sydney, communicates well, looks authentic. Going to Tanya would be a huge mistake, you really think Tanya Plebersek will play well in Queensland and outer metropolitan seats?
The Franking credits/imputation crackdown hurt Labor, badly, that needs to be put in the shredder!
And a good proportion of the country doesn’t give a f**k about climate change, that’s obvious.
The other thing is the populace has the memory of gnat. They simply forgot about how bad the coalition was and voted for greed and self interest.
“something like a Green New Deal”
Problem with that is that no one had ever seen jobs come from something like that. Mines, people have seen those jobs.
No one is going to believe a Green New Deal will actually produce jobs.
How long before the LNP drops it’s climate targets?
“Talking about Clive not getting a seat misses the point. He owns the government, which has been re elected on the back of his $$$.”
There is some force in this argument, I wonder whether gets access to adani’s rail line for his tenements. I’m saying, yes. I reckon the government will now fund it too.
Shorten still not conceded.
Labor have to begin by communicating with outer suburban Australians, like Whitlam did.