12.06am. “We’re bringing back Macquarie”, says Scott Morrison in his victory speech. Not so fast — Labor have just hit the lead there. And not because of that Katoomba pre-poll booth I mentioned a few times earlier, which barely swung on two-party preferred.
11.13pm. Kerryn Phelps has her nose in front in Wentworth, but I would note that the Rose Bay pre-poll hasn’t reported yet. It wasn’t a booth at the 2016 election but was at the by-election, and when it came in, there was a pretty handy shift to the Liberals. Also outstanding is the Waverley pre-poll booth, which does a very great deal of business.
10.59pm. The Liberals have edged into the lead in Boothby, after Glenelg pre-poll swung 4% their way (though Brighton went 3% the other way).
10.57pm. Labor just hanging on in Cowan, well out of contention now in Swan, and every other WA seat they hoped to win.
10.56pm. I was suggesting Labor wasn’t home in Moreton before. Probably safe now. But Mansfield pre-poll swung 14.4% to Coalition, while Rocklea and Wooldridge didn’t move.
10.39pm. With 45.8% counted, South Australia looks like three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Centre Alliance performing weakly at 2.8%.
10.38pm. Oh, and by the way — Clive Palmer is on 3.4% in Queensland and is being flogged by One Nation.
10.38pm. Jacqui Lambie is on 8.7% in Tasmania and should be back. The result should go two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. 58.2% counted.
10.35pm. One Nation are on over 10% in Queensland, where I’m inclined to think the most likely result is Coalition two, Labor two, Greens one, One Nation one, with 33.4% counted.
10.34pm. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens in Victoria too, with 32.4% counted. But maybe Labor could take a third seat off the Coalition, if their position improves as more metropolitan votes come in. No one else is cracking 3%.
10.32pm. Some early indications from the Senate. Starting in New South Wales, with 35.6% counted. One Nation aren’t doing great at 5%; United Australia Party tanking on 1.4%. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens.
10.30pm. Labor leads 1.3% in Lilley, which Nine projects down to 0.5%. One pre-poll in swung slightly more heavily than the 5.2% norm; two more are still to come.
10.28pm. Labor leads 2.3% in Blair, which the Nine computer projects down to 0.9%. One pre-poll booth, Ipswich South, swung typically; two more are outstanding.
10.21pm. That Katoomba pre-poll booth in Macquarie which Anthony Albanese said had swung heavily to Labor still isn’t in the system. Labor has a raw lead of 1.3% lead there, but absent pre-polls (Katoomba and five others), the Nine computer projects absolutely nothing in it.
10.19pm. A 9.8% swing has reduced Labor to a 4.9% lead in Hunter, projected to be 2.7%. Should be okay for them, but the one pre-poll booth swung 14.1%, and there are eight still to come, whih are worth keeping at least half an eye on.
10.16pm. Labor leads 2.8% in Eden-Monaro, Nine computer projects 1.3%, 1.6% swing to Liberal. There are eight pre-polls, none of which have reported.
10.14pm. Labor leads by 2.0% in Dobell after a 3.5% swing to Liberal, with the Nine computer projecting 1.4%. Two pre-polls, Tuggerah and The Entrance, have swung normally. Pre-polls yet to come from Charmhaven and Gosford.
10.10pm. Independent Helen Haines holds what the Nine booth projects as a 1.8% lead in Indi: two pre-polls in, Wodonga, which swung heavily to Liberal, and Mansfield, which swung only very slightly (by swing here, I mean compared with Cathy McGowan’s margin of 4.8%). Wangaratta pre-poll still to come. Very much too close to call.
10.04pm. The Nine computer now projects a tiny lead for the Liberals in Chisholm. Four pre-polls still to come may decide the result. The one pre-poll that has reported, Blackburn North, swung 1.6% to Labor.
10.02pm. The yo-yo of Swan has swung back in favour of the Liberals, while Labor maintains only a fragile lead in Cowan. Still nothing in it in Boothby, Labor very slightly ahead.
9.44pm. Labor has very tenuous leads in Blair and Lilley, so there’s certainly paths to a Coalition majority. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on include Corangamite, Eden-Monaro and Moreton.
9.42pm. Now it’s getting very close in Chisholm. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on yet include Corangamite, Dobell, Eden-Monaro,
9.39pm. Spoke too soon about Swan — close again now.
9.34pm. Particularly remarkable results from scanning around include double-digit two-party swings against Labor in Hunter, Capricornia and, would you believe it, Dawson. The latter two suggest a very strong Adani effect.
9.30pm. Another blow for Labor with Swan now looking beyond their reach. However, they have moved ahead in Cowan, so it looks like status quo in WA.
9.21pm. Anthony Albanese just said on Nine that there is a big swing to Labor on the Katoomba pre-poll centre in Macquarie, which is not in the system yet. That should save Labor’s bacon there.
9.17pm. Very advanced stage of the count in Bass, with even the pre-polls in, and Labor look too far behind.
9.05pm. Both Labor-held Cowan and Liberal-held Swan are very close, but Liberals looking good in Hasluck, Pearce and Stirling. At best though, a net gain of one for Labor in WA.
8.54pm. And if all goes well for the Liberals in WA, the door widens a little on the prospect of a Coalition majority.
8.51pm. First results look encouraging for Christian Porter in Pearce. Ditto Stirling, but very few votes there. Some results in Cowan, looks close, but too early to be meaningful. First booth looks good for Liberal in Hasluck. Individually all too early to say, but collectively discouraging for the notion that WA might save the day for Labor.
8.48pm. Given pre-polls heavily favoured the Liberals at the Wentworth by-election, I would read the present lineball result as somewhat encouraging for the Liberals.
8.45pm. Haven’t said a thing about Wentworth — it looks very, very tight. A number of the independents failed to mark much of a mark, including Kevin Mack in Farrer and Rob Oakeshott in Cowper.
8.38pm. Labor looks okay in Solomon; the CLP leads on the raw vote in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them ahead, because these are mostly conservative booths from Katherine and such.
8.29pm. Another big picture overview. In New South Wales, Labor wins Gilmore but loses Lindsay; Tony Abbott loses Warringah. Labor-held Macquarie could go either way. Labor wins Chisholm, Corangamite and Dunkley. Tasmania: Labor loses Braddon and looking shaky in Bass. Queensland: Labor to lose Herbert and Longman, Leichhardt looking unlikely now. In South Australia, the potential Labor gain of Boothby is lineball. Talk that Labor is in danger in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them in the lead, and there’s nothing from Solomon yet. Nothing meaningful yet from Western Australia. My best guess remains that the Coalition will land just short of a majority, but the wild cards of WA and pre-polls remain in the deck.
8.20pm. By best guess is that the Coalition will land a few seats short of a majority, but again: nothing yet from WA, and the possibility it will play out differently on pre-polls. The likely cross bench: Adam Bandt, Zali Steggall, Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, Rebekha Sharkie … possibly Helen Haines, probably not Kerryn Phelps.
8.14pm. I’ve been doing real work for the last half hour, but the situation hasn’t fundamentally changed: a few gains for Labor in Victoria, maybe a net gain for the Coalition in New South Wales, Braddon and possibly Bass lost by Labor in Tasmania as well, and a net loss for Labor in Queensland. Boothby lineball though, and Labor praying for gains in Western Australia and a favourable dynamic on pre-polls.
7.48pm. Macquarie lineball, but looking better for Labor than earlier.
7.46pm. Also, the first results in Boothby are good for Labor.
7.45pm. Looking better for Labor now in Lilley though.
7.40pm. Labor should gain three in Victoria; but only Gilmore looks strong in NSW, they look like losing Lindsay, and they’re in trouble in Macquarie. In Queensland, the Nine computer has Labor behind in Blair, Herbert, and Longman, but it’s not calling any of them. However, they are running Warren Entsch close in Leichhardt.
7.33pm. I’m certainly not seeing any gains for Labor in Queensland, and they’re in trouble in Herbert, Longman and Lilley. But Tony Abbott is clearly gone in Warringah.
7.29pm. Looks close in Herbert, but Labor are struggling in Queensland in some surprising places: Lilley
7.26pm. Labor should win Chisholm, Dunkley and Corangamite, but the seats further down the pendulum in Victoria don’t appear to be swinging
7.23pm. Lineball in Macquarie as well.
7.22pm. Looking dicey for Labor in Lindsay as well.
7.21pm. Still nothing in it in Bass, Liberals looking like winning Braddon.
7.19pm. Early assessment: it’s going to be close. Labor far from assured of a majority.
7.18pm. But it’s looking good for Labor in Gilmore.
7.13pm. Early days, but I’m not seeing any great wave to Labor. They are struggling in the two northern Tasmanian seats, and only looking really good in Corangamite in Victoria. And it looks close early in Griffith, a seat they hold in Queensland.
7.12pm. Early indications are that it’s close in Chisholm – six booths in on primary, two on two-party (50 in total).
7.09pm. Labor have moved ahead on Nine’s projection in Bass, but remain behind in Braddon.
7.08pm. If nothing else, the news from Queensland is consistently looking good for the Coalition.
7.06pm. The swing to LNP in Bonner I noted earlier has come off, now looking status quo (LNP margin 3.4%).
7.05pm. Dreadful early numbers for Tony Abbott, who trails 40.3% to 32.5% on the raw primary vote with five booths out of 50 in.
7.02pm. The Nine computer sees a 3.9% swing to Labor in Corangamite, where there is no margin.
7.01pm. Related by Chris Uhlmann, Labor believes they have won Corangamite. But the overall picture in Queensland for the Coalition looks strong, as per the exit poll result.
7.00pm. Early numbers looking encouraging for Peter Dutton in Dickson — a swing approaching 5% in his favour off four booths.
6.58pm. Labor look to have the edge in Gilmore, with 13 booths out of 66 on the primary vote – Liberal down 17.4% of which 12.7% has gone to the Nationals, while Labor are down very slightly. Ex-Liberal independent Grant Schultz only on 5.3%.
6.56pm. Four booths in from Braddon, and Labor looks in trouble. One booth in from Bass, swing looks almost exactly equal to the Labor margin.
6.54pm. Based on four primary vote results and a speculative preference throw, the Nine computer sees a 4.25% swing to Labor in La Trobe, suggesting it will be tight.
6.52pm. First two-party result in Bonner is encouraging for LNP incumbent Ross Vasta.
6.51pm. The first two-party booth from Corangamite, which is obviously in the country, has swung 5.4% to Labor.
6.50pm. Little swing in Macquarie with three booths in on two-party (it goes without saying these are small ones).
6.47pm. Gilmore looks close with eight booths out of 66 in on the primary vote.
6.43pm. First two booths from Kooyong, albeit very small ones, look encouraging for Josh Frydenberg.
6.42pm. Promising early numbers for independent Helen Haines in Indi, with 13 bush booths in on the primary vote.
6.38pm. Some fairly encouraging early numbers for Nationals member Kevin Hogan in Page, a marginal seat in northern New South Wales that Labor was never confident about.
6.35pm. Over 1000 votes in from Calare, and early indications are Nationals incumbent Andrew Gee will keep enough of his primary vote to hold off Shooters, if they indeed make it ahead of Labor to reach the final count. Early days yet though.
5.45pm. Welcome to live blogging of the federal election count. I have been working in what little time I have had to spare on an election results facility, but I probably won’t be able to get it in action this evening. However, I should be able to make it functional for the count after election night. Similarly, I may or may not find time to do some live blogging this evening, in between my duties as a behind-the-scenes operator for the Nine Network’s coverage. Speaking of, the YouGov Galaxy exit poll for Nine, from a sample of about 3300, has Labor leading 52-48, which I’m pretty sure presumes to be effectively nationally, even though only specific marginal seats have been targeted. State by state though, the swing is, as expected, uneven: 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (2.5% swing to Labor), 55-45 in Victoria (3.2% swing to Labor), 53-47 to Coalition in Queensland (a swing to the Coalition of 1.1%), and 52-48 to Labor in the other three states combined (a swing to Labor of 2.5%).
Someone said the best possible outcome for the LNP would be a win for them but a loss for Abbott. So looks like they got that. Fuck the voters
The resignation ?
.
44s ago 13:33
Bill Shorten is on his way to the Labor HQ party in Melbourne.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/18/australian-federal-election-2019-bill-shorten-scott-morrison-bob-hawke-polls-polling-vote-labor-coalition-liberals-australia-candidates-seats-odds-results-politics-live
Henry: “He lost Howard his seat remember.”
I think Howard lost Howard his seat.
Bill Shorten knifing Rudd has now cost Australia so much . Fuck off loser.
So tell me again how:
Labor doesn’t need to run negative ads
Labor doesn’t need to counter Liberal lies on social media
The franking credits policy is a net vote winner
The a Palmer deal will destroy the Libs
And above all, give me some anecdotes about how good the vibe is at polling booths, because those are obviously really reliable.
@Honest Bastard
I think Sharma will be hoping on the postal votes to save him. I guess it’s still early to tell. I do not know NSW well enough to guess how Bondi will vote and I’m not really wanting to go through the by-election results.
Is Albo giving his leadership speech now?
“Labor ran a pretty left-wing economic agenda with a strong emphasis on redistributing wealth and increasing government intervention in the economy.”
That and the focus on the environment it seems. Next election, follow the Rudd approach – we’ll fix everything, and a unicorn in every pot.
We’ll be just like the Libs, but nicer and a bit more competent.
Sorry, feeling pretty dark right now, even though from a personal point of view, I’ll do better out of the LNP in theory. I guess I should just cuddle my money.
I thought Labor had millions of dollars – so why didn’t they run the dirt ?
I think Albo has had a few. 🙂
Andrew Earlwood
The attack worked.
You might hate it. It’s the truth.
There was and is a cognitive dissonance between Sally McManus and Labor.
Labor ran hard on being not as tough as Sally McManus.
Gary @ #1336 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 10:30 pm
No, it will still be Labor’s fault. Morrison said recently that they were still dealing with the deficit Labor left the last time. Total bullshit of course, but Australians have been brainwashed to believe it.
This was supposed to be the climate change election – what the fuck do we do now?
I burst into tears, myself.
People obviously understood that reducing a very small number of very high penalty rates is not a threat to penalty rates in general.
Labor should not rush to a new leader.
They need to find a person who engenders trust, IS intelligent, and can take people with him as he/she reinvents some parts of the party.
Look at the people who are now winning elections around the world and their style.
Rudd was the first of the type when he beat Howard, then you have the likes of Trump whom most hate, but 62 million of the electorate loved and apparently according to new polls love even more now; Nigel Farrage in the UK making a dogs breakfast out of traditional parties with his new party. Probably the most effective public and parliamentary speaker I have seen. The world is changing rapidly and new styles and approaches need to be looked out.
This will be the last of the ‘old fashioned’ style elections.
IMHO
Andy: we owe it to our kids to immediately move past this and keep fighting. That’s what I intend to do.
Patrick Bateman @ #1334 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 10:35 pm
That third thing would have been, if Labor had done the first two things effectively.
Also stop the goddamn infighting with the Greens (and vice-versa).
Bob Hawke was the man for his time.
He wouldn’t last long in the current climate.
Looks like Albo thought Hawke was popular because of the beer.
Fuck it, maybe he’s right. Next ALP leader to be chosen on who can drink a yard the fastest.
Hawke was great. Keating was great. Rudd was good until he wasn’t. Gillard fought until she couldn’t. Shorten gave it a red hot go. Albo posturing now for leadership. He’d be good too. Plibersek is strong, and would resonate with many. None of the others have the name recognition. They’ve got 3 years.
Shorten knifed Rudd then knifed Gillard. Then knifed the ALP. He’s destroyed 2 ALP governments and a what should have been an ALP government.
I reckon Queenslanders need a good dose of climate change wrath – a few cat 5 cyclones to tear up the coast, some more one in 100 year event flooding and crippling droughts. Eventually it will get through their thick heads that climate change policy is actually important.
@ Itep
>Gladys Liu
I hope not. I’m hoping on the outside booth and prepoll results which are still trickling in.
Imagine how different the last decade might have been if a bunch of faction goons in 2010 didn’t think they were smarter than everyone else and do something disastrously silly based on a naively good faith reception of some concern trolling by right wing commentators like Andrew Bolt.
I know the past is the past but holy shit things would have been so different if that flashpoint didn’t occur.
So considering we’re discussing future Labor leaders I have a few suggestions:
Ed Husic
Linda Burney
Pat Conroy (maybe)
Terri Butler (would that be too on the nose?)
Nick Champion
Ged Kearney (might as well go out with a bang)
Labor had pledged to spend hundreds of millions on numerous infrastructure projects in a string of seats up the Qld coast. To be paid for by stopping franking credit refunds for the rich and not giving tax cuts to the multinationals and the corporates.
Electorates decided that Adani was a better option for jobs and wealth.
Unbelievable.
What is to come? Massive taxpayer funds for Adani and Clive and the promise of jobs for Aussies.
Unbelievable.
Sinodinos was his chief adviser meher
And speaking of Gladys Liu, very very nasty misinformation being pushed out online and on the Chinese platforms.
Another example of being strong
Labor embraced Marriage Equality. Labor won that campaign.
Learn the lesson. If you do it do it properly.
Seth, keep fighting. We all have to keep paddling in the right direction. Climate change is a matter of degree, so everything we do potentially improves the final damage. Don’t give up.
Looks like AEC is doing some TCP recounts.
Albo’s bitterness is coming through in spades. Did he just silence a supporter. Looks like Penny is praying for him to stop. What is this.
“I reckon Queenslanders need a good dose of climate change wrath”
They’ll blame the ALP
Regarding Keating. Keating saved Hawke’s reputation and legacy.
For various reasons Hawke was falling apart at that very time.
If Keating hadn’t moved in then our view of Hawke today might be very different.
Voters supposedly say they want politics and politicians to change, but when offered something different we run back and reward those who want to keep things the same.
It seems we are a bunch of selfish cowards.
Most of us here will manage the next 3 years, but many in our Society are struggling and the indications are that things will continue to get tougher for them.
We never seem to consider others when we step into the Ballot box.
Congratulations Australia, we own the next 3 years! 🙁
Salk @ #1344 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 10:38 pm
Disagree. Shorten has had two chances now and hasn’t succeeded. Unless the pre-poll is massively favorable to Labor, it’s time for him to resign as party leader.
Albo is a little too 1970’s whitlamesque to be the leader going forward if labor don’t get up.
Penny fighting back tears. My heart goes out to her…
“It seems we are a bunch of selfish cowards”
Yep. Can’t see any other way of reading this.
A lot of IT lobs will be done by machines, jobs requiring high levels of manual dexterity will be safe for a good while yet.
Zoid
ALP ran an honest campaign.
I think Shorten wanted to bring some civility to the election.
But also, to hazard a guess, if you think you’re leading in the polls you don’t need to use dirt.
You are fecking mad guytaur.
Do you seriously think that if labor went full socialist that Queensland would have flocked to labor? That Queenslanders are saying ‘we will vote for our local racists, property developers, shonks and conmen unless you give us the full Bernie?’
Feck me.
“Labor embraced Marriage Equality. Labor won that campaign.”
Frankly if it doesn’t affect them the Australians don’t care.
Marriage equality…meh, good luck to you.
But an ideology / policy that threatens their pocket….
Honestly they should do it the old fashioned way govts used to work…inch by inch…and before you know it…
Adrian
I just got sent a message with the map of Australia with Queensland removed. The text said “Quexit Now! Cut Them Loose!”
Big A Adrian @ #1369 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 10:40 pm
Well, speaking as a Queenslander who made every effort to make sure his LNP MP wasn’t re-elected, I would politely but firmly tell you to jog on.
Big A Adrian says:
At which point the rest of Australia says Ha Bloody Ha
Will Shorten do a Billary?
guytaur: “There was and is a cognitive dissonance between Sally McManus and Labor.”
Well, to be brutally honest, you’d want to have that dissonance if you were Labor. Sally McManus possibly has her strengths as leader of the union movement, but, for the average voter, I reckon she’d have about as much appeal as a trip to the dentist. Bob Hawke she most certainly ain’t!
Shorten has never inspired me, but for goodness sake give him a break tonight. If things had panned out the way most of us were expecting just a few hours ago, he would’ve been hailed as a modern Labor hero. As it happened, and for reasons that Labor will need to work through over the coming months, this campaign didn’t work and both the leader and his shadow cabinet bear collective responsibility for that. Bill Shorten has missed his moment in history. He should be thanked graciously for the years of his life he’s given to Australian political life and allowed to move on.
just listening to Penny Wong, I’m starting to wish she puts her hand up for a lower house seat and take on the leadership.