Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls
As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Original post
The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.
We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.
Also:
• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.
• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.
• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.
Frednk – Reverse Tampa is right on the money. Oh, the Irony
Guy
“I often wonder about swinging voters. What kind of mentality leaves you so unsure of your belief system as to have you flip flopping from one side to the other. These are not deep thinkers perhaps…”
I think many of them simply ask “What’s in it for me?”
BTW, appreciate your earlier response re the Rwandan issue.
What seat’s up next?
Liberals in front in Reid
Don’t believe the Reid number
Guy @ #685 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 11:52 am
Whereas I’ve no doubt they will try and spin it against Labor, that will back fire on them big time, as the refugee swap deal with the US was done under Trumble’s stewardship, and the actual transfer was made under Moribund’s watch. The only way it can be even positively spun is as an attack on Trumble.
Labor would be well advised not to go anywhere near this. Their only response to any questions about it should be along the lines of, “We’re only just learning about it ourselves. The deal and the transfer happened under the Libs, so we will join you in asking questions of them”.
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Reid 2 Party Preferred: LIB 52 (-2.7 since election) ALP 48 (+2.7) #auspol
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Reid Primary Votes: LIB 44 (-4.8 since election) ALP 36 (-0.3) GRN 7 (-1.5) UAP 6 (+6) #auspol
To the grammarians here today, I am reading a wonderful book “Word By Word, The secret life of dictionaries” by Kory Stamper. She has some advice early in the book that I would summarise with, “Grammar is an attempt to make rules where none exist.” As far as I can tell she knows her stuff, working as a lexicographer for Merriam Webster. You can tell from the words she chooses that she loves them. Recommended!
So far it’s all going pretty much as I expected, with each party ahead in seats they already hold.
So Upnorth, that’s a 5% PV swing against the COALition.
Hopefully replicated across NSW.
Agree with those who are concerned that anything about refugees is potentially risky for Labor.
People ain’t that smart. This story will provoke a fear reaction in racists, which will encourage them to be more conservative (in both senses) when voting.
The story about the Rwandans has come from open source media so is not actually confirmed as true at the minute. Morrison was at pains to say that all standard vetting processes had been followed in his comments to the NPC.
Will be interesting to see where it goes from her. I’m not sure that Shorten should be diving in to it as an issue at this time.
Ha Ha Ha with these polls and you Laborites not believing them we will see Shoten lose the election on Saturday
Starting to look like Clive is hoovering up enough don’t knows, low information and protest votes to be significant. Let’s see how ‘disciplined’ his followers are.
“Grammar is an attempt to make rules where none exist.”
Not exactly. The rules exist, even if they aren’t what we think they are. Grammar is an attempt to describe the underlying structure of language, in the same way that mathematics is an abstract description of the rule of physics and the universe.
The issue is when prescriptivists make up “grammar rules” that have no grounding in actual language use.
Three months ago Morrison and Dutton and Porter (who was extremely active in bastardizing the Nauruan refugeess) were screaming about a thousand murderers and rapists being let loose on the unsuspecting Australian public because of Medevac.
When questioned, Morrison was forced to admit that there had not been a single conviction among the thousand. Not one. The Coalition of Bastards had no compunction about convicting every single individual.
When cornered, they did not stop the tirade of bastardry directed at the inmates of Nauru. Instead, to reinforce the point, Morrison re-opened and closed Christmas Island at a cost of $1.4 billion.
This is the true context for the alleged Ruandan massacre merchants.
Damo – are you new to this?
No one should put any stock in seat polling, ever. But if it helps keep your hopes alive for 48 hours, go with God.
HaveAchat at 1.06pm
“Or you could do what I am doing, open 25 new window and play lnp ads continuously but muted, so far I must have spent a couple of hundred dollars of their money and will keep doing it all day today and all day tomorrow (except when at pre-poll handing out how to votes).”
Genius!
Can’t resist…
Spot on Boerwar.
It will be great to check out actual results against the seat polls.
Apparently disaffected moderate Craig Laundy supporters are parking their vote with Palmer. Hmmmm!
Despite the seemingly dodginess of it still shows a near 3% swing
Wayne’s lesser brother.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 2:06 pm
The story about the Rwandans has come from open source media so is not actually confirmed as true at the minute. Morrison was at pains to say that all standard vetting processes had been followed in his comments to the NPC.
Will be interesting to see where it goes from her. I’m not sure that Shorten should be diving in to it as an issue at this time.’
Yep. Suggested response from Mr Shorten: ‘I have complete confidence in Australia’s security agencies. Any unanswered questions about alleged murderers being allowed into Australia should be directed at Mr Morrison and Mr Dutton.’
Reid always looked a likely hold so long as the replacement for Laundy was a good pick – which she was. The demographics here just too hard for the ALP, who might not win this back for some time (look at state results in Drummoyne).
The best ALP prospect is Gilmore, hard to not see them winning there. Offset by the likely LP win in Lindsay. If Sharma wins and Abbott loses, then it is likely a parity result in NSW, unless Oakshott can snag Cowper. My intel. has the Nats in front there now.
For those of us short on time can someone post a list of the seat poll results so far?
Having campaigned in Reid (or Lowe as it then was) extensively 15-25 years ago (3 federal campaigns, three state campaigns and a byelection) I can say with some degree of confidence that property prices are an enduring obsession in that neck of the woods. One could well see that the liberals ‘property tax’ scare campaign biting particularly hard there.
GG
Have a look at the headline over at the Guardian. Remember that this election is about trust…
Damo says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 2:07 pm
Ha Ha Ha with these polls and you Laborites not believing them we will see Shoten lose the election on Saturday
You don’t honestly think these polls offer good news to the tory do you?
Some people take these seat polls seriously.
Flynn moved to favourite within 2 hours of the poll release.
The steggosaurus still favourite to squish that other dinosaur. Rabbott
Damo says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 2:07 pm
Ha Ha Ha with these polls and you Laborites not believing them we will see Shoten lose the election on Saturday
—————-
Labor has won the election comfortably , even these 10 seats show Labor is holding and gaining 4 or more seats
there is no evidence with the libs/nats declining primary vote they will be able to hold their own seats , Looks unlikely for the libs/nats getting net gain in any state , but loses in every state
Seat polling correctly predicted the demise of the member for Bennelong in 2007 (if memory serves). That’s about the last one they ever got right.
Laundy is up and about supporting the LNP candidate in Reid
ABC crossing to Labor in Blacktown now
“Last election the Greens struggled to get what would now be half a senate quota. So any decline in their PV would have to be giving Larissa the squirts.”
Wow what eloquence you choose to use there A_Earlwood. Says a lot really!!! Any other vile comments you would like to say about her or are you good now?
Seat polls predict the winner about 50% of the time
Patrick
https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes has all the polls.
Women and men of Australia.
The decline in LNP primary vote in QLD , for the libs/nats in the other states
My original predictions are not changing on how many seats the libs/nats will lose
QLD
9 seats lost for the LNP
NSW
5 seat lost for Libs/nats
Vic
5 seat lost for the libs/nats
S.A
3 seat lost for the Libs/nats
W.A
3 seat lost for the libs/nats
To date not a single seat poll is showing Labor winning a seat off the LNP.
There may be a swing on, but what’s going to happen is that the LNP will win Herbert and Lindsay off Labor, while Labor will fall short in the seats that matter, including in regional Queensland, in Victoria and in NSW, such as Dickson, La Trobe, Higgins, Casey, Reid and Banks.
Despite their “favourable” redistributions, Labor may even win a clear plurality of the 2pp and still not form government.
“Women and men” instead of men & women – good one!
“#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Reid Primary Votes: LIB 44 (-4.8 since election) ALP 36 (-0.3) GRN 7 (-1.5) UAP 6 (+6) #auspol ”
Unless Labor and/or Greens pick up another 2% on PV I reckon labor will fall short.
All the feedback thus far has been positive, so it’s possible: especially since Crosby has been ticking all the right boxes for labor success in that electorate so far. The ‘property tax’ scare campaign might be enough for the Libs to hold on though …
Shorten starts off just like Morrison.
Bernard Keane
@BernardKeane
Upnorth
I’m not sure. I remember seeing $1.18 for Labor with Ladbrokes at one stage and it may have been higher, perhaps $1.20. It was $1.22 with one or two others.
The Liberals came into $5,00 with Ladbrokes, but again it could have gone lower. I saw $4.50 with one of the others.
UAP will NOT get 6% in Reid
Shorten pretending he’s a champion on climate change policy… 😆
Thanks Darn
Patrick,
William is updating his post as the seat polls come in. See top of page 🙂
For details of the Rwandan murder suspects RELEASED into Australia (there is no suggestion they went into detention) it is worth reading the full Politico story, which has a full history.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/15/australia-elections-rwanda-prisoners-refugee-swap-us-226875
It seems likely they were tortured, but equally, US Justice Dept was pretty convinced they did the murders. They were definitely members of the Hutu militia (my mistake when I said Tutsi before; they were anti0-Tutsi). These militias were remnants of the groups that carried out the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
adrian @ #743 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 2:24 pm
Black swan anyone?