Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.
Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.
The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.
BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.
However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.
As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.
The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:
Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.
For anyone interested in the electric ferries that Socrates mentioned there’s a recent Fully Charged video about them, taken onboard with the captain showing Robert (the presenter) around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rE_M1n-ClOA
The two ferries each make 46 crossings every 24 hours and take 9 minutes to charge on the Swedish side and 5 minutes to charge on the Denmark side (obviously it takes longer than this on each side to disembark the vehicles and passengers). They expect to pay off the cost of the conversion within 8 years (calculated on the present price of diesel) and plan to run the ships for at least the next 15 years.
So it was still cost-effective even when having to do a retro-fit. Building from new should be even more advantageous. Looks a very worthy option to consider for any new ferry fleet on Sydney Harbour.
Late Riser says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:57 pm
You’re not Catholic, are you?
Newspoll releasing 10 seat p0lls tomorrow, one an hour, drama, excitement..Murdoch propaganda that just happens to paint a rosey picture for the Coalition….they sell out two weeks before the election then come back to balanced reporting two weeks after.. modus operandi.. No interest here.
No Tampa moment either- bye bye Schomo, Dutton, Abbott, and Alan Jones. What a weekend this is going to be.
It looks like the stunts have transitioned over to the Labor camp, and to Chloe ‘the Brickie’ Shorten…
https://mobile.twitter.com/jekearsley/status/1128493047677837314/video/1
Barney ….Scout more than floats in here on occasion!!
work 9-5 so find it hard to post as much as some but enjoy PB and have done for a very long time.
Barney in Saigon @ #395 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 12:59 pm
There’s a story told in family circles that as a bub my aunt kidnapped me and took me to a church for that very purpose, but mum & dad chased and saved me from that fate. So, no. 🙂
Perhaps the 10 seat polls have been ‘leaked’ and that’s what’s causing the betting markets to tighten.
@Tetsujin
It won’t be less than 80 seats.
You are dreaming
No mortar between the sides of the bricks either!
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 1:05 pm
Perhaps the 10 seat polls have been ‘leaked’ and that’s what’s causing the betting markets to tighten.
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It will not do the libs/nats any good if they can pick up seats which they didn’t held for no net gain, but to lose more seats that they currently hold
Given the vague nature of the messaging suggesting the slight chance the Libs could fall over the line… those $6-7 odds were extremely good value. Mind you it’s not like Labor has really moved in response to any great degree.
So as far as they mean anything it just shows that people are actually thinking about the profits to be made out of the outcome if the unlikely were to happen.
Like I said, I expect a move to the Libs if the seat polls aren’t bad news. So I suggest if you’re hanging your hat on the betting markets…
The Nationals are directing members to ignore how-to-vote cards and vote below the line in the Senate, in a spectacular collapse of Coalition unity following Jim Molan’s rogue campaign for his own re-election.
In an email to members on Wednesday, the Nationals’ NSW state director Ross Cadell and chairman Bede Burke accused Senator Molan and his supporters of breaching the Coalition agreement by campaigning for a “below the line” vote. This left the junior Coalition partner with “no choice but to follow suit”, the pair wrote.
“Supporters of Liberal senator Jim Molan have taken it upon themselves to campaign for a ‘below the line’ vote, which in our view breaks the Coalition agreement and seriously harms the chances of a Nationals senator being elected,” they said.
“We are not taking this extraordinary step lightly … this is not something we want to do, but we need every one of our members to vote below the line for Perin Davey and Sam Farraway, and to encourage everyone they know to do the same.”
The Coalition is running a joint Senate ticket in NSW, with the Liberals’ Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg in the top two positions (almost certain to be elected) and the Nationals’ Perin Davey in the third spot (far less likely).
Senator Molan was relegated to the unwinnable fourth spot by Liberal preselectors and is running his own unauthorised campaign calling on people to vote for him below the line.
Mr Cadell said the Nationals were primarily responding to Senator Molan’s decision to take out advertisements in regional newspapers, directly targeting their voter base. He described Senator Molan’s actions as “a bit mean”.
Late Riser says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 1:03 pm
Lucky you! 🙂
A lot of that used happen in Italy.
zoidlord:
Nonsense. While I think 80+ is more likely than not, a tighter result is not at all out of the question.
Even Bludgertrack only has Labor on 79, and its being a bit more generous towards them on preferences than the actual polls.
Plus we have a mentality that if it could happen in the US it cold happen here (and likely those punters do not understand the difference between optional and compulsory preferential voting,
And the electoral college system gave the gop a win with 3 million less votes.
Holden Hillbilly:
In tense times like these, it’s always nice to see the conservative forces doing their bit for the left.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 1:02 pm
It looks like the stunts have transitioned over to the Labor camp, and to Chloe ‘the Brickie’ Shorten…
https://mobile.twitter.com/jekearsley/status/1128493047677837314/video/1
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Will that be tomorrows propaganda for the news ltd hacks, this is what every female will be doing under a Labor/ Shorten government , hard Labour
I found the Environment Minister in the middle of her electorate.
–
As of COB Tuesday approximately 3m people had cast their vote at an early voting centre for the 2019 federal election. Around 400k voted yesterday.
This compares to a total of around 1.82m who had prepolled by this stage of the 2016 federal election.
Asha Leu says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 1:11 pm
Even Bludgertrack only has Labor on 79, and its being a bit more generous towards them on preferences than the actual polls.
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It is very unlikely, i will say its impossible that Labor will be under 80 seats in the house of reps, if the libs/nats combined primary vote is under 40% in majority of the states
Even in NSW if the opinion polls are accurate that the libs/nats combined primary vote is worse than it was in 2016
the libs/nats are not even going to get a net gain in nsw , but will likely lose seats
EB,
Isn’t that an ostrich? 🙂
More auto-something issues (Guardian, Amy’s blog)
Holden Hillbilly @ #419 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 1:16 pm
This does suggest that many people made their minds up long ago and that doesn’t bode well for an incumbent.
I suspect we’ll find that this campaign didn’t make a lot of difference to what the polls have suggested for the last year.
My MIL and her sister took a couple of my nieces and nephews one day when they were being baby sat and had them baptised by the local priest who must have known that the parents were not aware. This was only 15 years ago and to this day MIL is quite happy to own up.
“A lot of that used happen in Italy.”
There’s a really good book about that called The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara.
I thought Morrison was at the NPC today.
Don’t forget, there’s a strong chance the coalition will lose more seats than Labor gains, with two or three going to independents or maybe even the Greens. Thus a modest outcome for Labor of, say, 80 seats won’t tell the whole story.
Cast my vote this morning, and got great pleasure in numbering the two Fraser Anning party members in the Senate: 42nd & 43rd 🙂 🙂
Ante Meridian:
No doubt. Depending on how things fall, we could see a slew of losses for the Coalition that don’t translate to a great deal of Labor gains.
“A lot of that used happen in Italy.”
“There’s a really good book about that called The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara.”
For me it didn’t happen in southern Germany.
@doyley – he’s moved it to tomorrow – sneaky, to avoid the advertising blackout.
Re: pre-polling, we have no idea who it benefits, and it only indicates that people have well and truly made their minds up.
slackboy72,
A few months ago, in Victoria, pre-polling went through the roof and it boded (bided? bade?) extremely well for the incumbent.
He moved it to tomorrow.
doyley says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 1:24 pm
“I thought Morrison was at the NPC today.”
..tomorrow, Doyley..
markjs, it’s people like you that jamb up the voting queue!
Thank you to the two J’s for your replies.
Cheers.
More postal gumpf from Sharma today about a Strong Economy and a Secure Future, funnily enough the two overriding reasons for not voting for these bullshit artists.
Why hasn’t this economic management myth been put to rest. Are there ads along these lines? (I don’t watch tele.) It’s not like there aren’t some numbers that make it all too bloody clear.
markjs,
Thanks.
markjs:
The great thing about the new Senate system is that I don’t actually have to give any preferences at all to the parties I detest. By the time I get to the likes of One Nation, Palmer, Anning, and Rise Up Australia, I’ve already stopped numbering.
baded ?
So you really don’t care if an Anning gets up instead of a Palmer?
Fulvio Sammut says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 1:29 pm
“markjs, it’s people like you that jamb up the voting queue!”
..Lol!!
..very quiet at the Aldinga shopping centre pre-poll booth, Fulvio. Mind you, my wife was a little annoyed at being kept waiting, but I was determined to put those scumbags last..
Current Betfair odds, which are set by the punters themselves, of $1.20 Lab $6.00 Coal, show no overs or unders, and indicate an 83.333333% likelihood of a Lab win, and a 16.666667% of Coal.
That will do me. It also shows that I was lucky/clever(?) to lay low when I did at $1.15.
Holden H@1:16pm
At the beginning I predicted pre-poll, I predicted total pre-poll will be 3 millions. But the number is reached by Tuesday. With 3 days to go, it could go up to 4 million. BTW, which state has the highest pre-poll number and/or percentage?
Somebody posted that the total votes are around 16 million. Is that correct?
Late Riser, are you taking any predictions on Pre-poll numbers?
Asha..
..I’ve never been so disgusted/offended as I have with Fraser Anning & his thugs and was determined to register my disgust by numbering them last..
..felt good too.. 🙂
Good lines to finish Bill’s presser.
Wtte
On 1st Australians: we’ve tried paternalism, taking their kids away, telling them what to do. Etc. etc. “I’m going to try something new: partnership”
That should* make the news tonight
* = I am sure Morrison will deliberately say something outrageous during the after noon to usurp that statement
yabba, betting odds do not translate into probabilities. To think that they do shows a misunderstanding of probability (and also how betting odds are calculated).
@Asha Leu
Polls also skew the results to lnp.
The absence of marginal seat polling means nothing.
Ven @ #437 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 1:37 pm
It feels a bit like flies crawling up a wall, but sure, I’ll put you down for 4.0 million. 🙂
jenauthor @ #446 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
and jen, I thought his answer on wages nailed it (and the questioner)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/15/australian-federal-election-campaign-2019-wednesday-shorten-morrison-politics-live?page=with:block-5cdb885e8f08d2b474ebbfce#block-5cdb885e8f08d2b474ebbfce