BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  1. It is the same in state , federal elections , it is impossible for the libs/nats to get a net gain in seats when the libs/nats combined primary vote is lower than the previous election

    Unless the libs/nats can get their combined primary over the levels of 2016 in each state

    The libs/nats are 0% of gaining seats in any state

  3. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:15 pm

    Shorten actually said he was disappointed with Morrison’s original non-answer.

    Morrison was forced to answer it next day ( no doubt after consultjng his minders, and perhaps even his church eldets)

    Did they absolve him?

  4. On the outbreak of hostilities between the Liberals and Nationals, sparked by Molan and his followers:

    Coalition implodes as Nationals launch their own ‘below the line’ campaign against Jim Molan

    By Michael Koziol
    May 15, 2019 — 11.19am

    The Nationals are directing members to ignore how-to-vote cards and vote below-the-line in the Senate in a spectacular collapse of Coalition unity following Jim Molan’s rogue campaign for his own re-election.

    In an email to members on Wednesday, the Nationals’ NSW state director Ross Cadell and chairman Bede Burke accused Senator Molan and his supporters of breaching the Coalition agreement by campaigning for a “below the line” vote.

    This left the junior coalition partner with “no choice but to follow suit”, the pair wrote.

    “Supporters of Liberal senator Jim Molan have taken it upon themselves to campaign for a ‘below the line’ vote, which in our view, breaks the Coalition Agreement and seriously harms the chances of a Nationals senator being elected,” they said.

    “We are not taking this extraordinary step lightly … this is not something we want to do, but we need every one of our members to vote below the line for Perin Davey and Sam Farraway, and to encourage everyone they know to do the same.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/coalition-implodes-as-nationals-launch-their-own-below-the-line-campaign-against-jim-molan-20190515-p51nhd.html

  5. Scott, I spotted a guess from you last night of 51/49, which I interpreted as a guess for the final ALP/LNP TPP election outcome. Let me know please if that is not what you meant. 🙂

  6. @deemadigan
    33m33 minutes ago

    So @DaveSharma is giving his first preferences to Fred Nile’s candidate. How very Modern Liberal of him.

  7. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:19 pm
    Scott, I spotted a guess from you last night of 51/49, which I interpreted as a guess for the final ALP/LNP TPP election outcome. Let me know please if that is not what you meant.

    ————-

    That must have been another Scott
    im 53/47 in essential

    newspoll 52/48

    i am 53.9/46.1% for the result on election day

  8. poroti says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:16 pm

    Barney in Saigon says:

    International PollBludgers:

    How many different Countries have PBs cast their ballots in at this election?

    Some Bludgers are at times suspected of living on another planet. Does that count ?

    Well, if there’s an Australian Embassy or Consulate there I’ll accept it. 🙂

  10. Barney in Saigon @ #353 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 12:18 pm

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:15 pm

    Shorten actually said he was disappointed with Morrison’s original non-answer.

    Morrison was forced to answer it next day ( no doubt after consultjng his minders, and perhaps even his church eldets)

    Did they absolve him?

    —

    What they need to ask Schomo is if he thinks being gay is a sin – I bet he wouldn’t be able to say no.

  11. @nath

    Re Dunkley – this is my seat. I would be astounded if Crewther even gets close. People here mostly reckon he’s a bit of a tosser.

    The redistribution cut off the large population of wealthy old white people in Mornington and gave it to Flinders. The rest of the seat is relatively solidly Labor-voting. Carrum and Frankston swung 10% to Labor at the state election.

    Would’ve been a waste of the Libs’ resources.

  12. Adrian,
    In the genre of your sighting the ABC’s non-news coverage/dissemination of business propaganda against pay rises for workers (Boss Bonus hikes are always beneficial to the economy, of course), the ABC News website has a penchant for ignoring the major election issues which impact our lives when instead they can report on, say, Lord Downer’s disparagement of Keating’s disparagement of Dutton’s disparagement of ……………….

    Poor fellow, our country.

  13. Scott @ #350 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:19 pm
    Scott, I spotted a guess from you last night of 51/49, which I interpreted as a guess for the final ALP/LNP TPP election outcome. Let me know please if that is not what you meant.

    ————-

    That must have been another Scott
    im 53/47 in essential

    newspoll 52/48

    i am 53.9/46.1% for the result on election day

    OK, thanks. I had those other numbers. I might have to track “A different Scott”.

  15. Morrison’s religious conservatism and his response to gays going to hell will play badly in urban Melbourne. Shorten did the right thing by saying you don’t need a law to tell you gays are not going to hell.

    I don’t know what some here are talking about in regards to this issue. Liberals are on the wrong side of the issue.

  17. Its a shame the ACMA is corrupt , deliberate lies this

    Chris Kenny: Labor clearly resents the fact that the Coalition was able to deliver the historic reform of same-sex marriage under Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership.

    —————————–

    Skynews Australia should lose their license for breaching code on Election coverage (deliberate misleading , lying , propaganda , fictional )

    Chris Kenny

    Knows if it wasn’t for Labor, the greens , independents and minor parties helping the liberal party SSM would not have been legislated

  20. Asha Leu @ #263 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:56 am

    Briefly:

    Serious question. Do you really think posts like yours are actually serving the Labor party’s interests? Assuming they could actually translate your wanton thesaurus abuse and near-incomprehensible Briefly-ese into plain English, just what sort of impression do you think your contributions would leave on the various undecideds and dissected lefties that the ALP are courting votes and preferences from? And, yes, I realize that the vast majority of people reading this blog are partisan tragics who have made their voting decisions long ago, but from the sounds of it, you are making much the same arguments in-person at polling booths. (Something that, here in QLD, at least, Labor specifically instructs its HTV volunteers not to do – and for good reason.)

    All I can say is that I’m very glad Labor’s actual elected MPs and candidates do not use the same approach as many of the faithful here when it comes to winning over hearts and minds.

    You’ve obviously never come across Frank Calabrese.

  21. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:29 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:19 pm

    OK, thanks. I had those other numbers. I might have to track “A different Scott”.

    ———–

    Lol yes

  23. Been doing pre-polls in Forde this morning and quietly the Lib volunteers admitted they’re gone in Forde and Petrie. Add those two seats as comfortable Labor gains.

  25. Re Darve Sharma’s preference list.
    If I was him, I would ask voters to number the card 5-4-3-2-1-7-6.
    He has gone for 6-3-5-2-1-7-4.
    Everybody knows that it is a 2 horse race…
    Had he done the sequential donkey thingo that would be more logical in my eyes.

  32. Has a list of words/phrases whose appearance in MSM election night coverage will cause a DRINK ! been prepared ? Should it just be for wherever Anthony Green is hanging out or widen it ?

  34. How does one actually know that you are “gone” in electorate and we haven’t got to polling day. Like for example Forde and Petrie.

    Just interested. Remember being nervous in 2007 and it was over early but on nerves all day.

  35. Neat trick ScoMo runs:

    1. If I spend a lot of money, even if the policy is a brainfart, we’ll spend it wisely, because we know how to manage money.

    2. If Bill Shorten spends money, or even if he doesn’t spend any at all, he’ll send you broke, because Labor can’t manage money.

    3. Identical brainfart policies made up last night – and scrawled down on the back of an envelope in case we forgot what they were – will always succeed under the Coalition and always fail under Labor.

    Simples.

  36. With the torrent of polling coming in over the next three days… the betting markets are going to be very reactive and especially useless.

  37. The massive number of early votes will stretch the resources of the Australian Electoral Commission, with Mr Rogers warning it created more complexity around counting on Saturday.

    “It’s a huge logistic activity; we’ll be doing our very best, but there may well be some delays on the night,” he said.

    Most pre-poll votes will be counted when voting closes at 6pm on Saturday, but some, including declaration votes, are not counted until the days after the election.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/15/early-votes-delay-election-result/

  39. kirky says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:43 pm

    How does one actually know that you are “gone” in electorate and we haven’t got to polling day. Like for example Forde and Petrie.

    Just interested. Remember being nervous in 2007 and it was over early but on nerves all day.

    Me and me mates don’t like you, so youse are out of here! 🙂

  40. “Coalition implodes as Nationals launch their own ‘below the line’ campaign against Jim Molan”

    They couldn’t even hold it together until the election.

    Speak up, Bill. This kind of behaviour is exactly what you’ve been banging on about.

  41. “I don’t know what some here are talking about in regards to this issue. Liberals are on the wrong side of the issue.”

    I think the point is that there are a few Labor voting areas with lots of conservative Christians in them. These are the Labor areas which voted against marriage equality. I say conservative Christians to differentiate between moderate Christians. Some of these people may be Labor through and through and even lean to the left economically but their religious beliefs give them socially conservative views on some issues.

    From a purely political point of view, it may be unwise for Shorten to alienate these Christian Labor supporters by telling them their religious beliefs are wrong, especially when the alternative candidate Morrison is a devout Christian himself.

    What is politically wise or unwise shouldn’t matter though. Doing what’s morally right and standing up to discrimination is far more important. The Liberals are most certainly on the wrong side of this issue.

  42. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:46 pm

    Neat trick ScoMo runs:

    1. If I spend a lot of money, even if the policy is a brainfart, we’ll spend it wisely, because we know how to manage money.

    2. If Bill Shorten spends money, or even if he doesn’t spend any at all, he’ll send you broke, because Labor can’t manage money.

    3. Identical brainfart policies made up last night – and scrawled down on the back of an envelope in case we forgot what they were – will always succeed under the Coalition and always fail under Labor.

    Simples.

    Hmmmm, NBN, NDIS, …

  43. I’m finally catching up with Amy today.

    Josh Frydenberg actually just said these words, in this order. “Labor will tax your aspiration, they’ll tax your inspiration, they’ll tax your perspiration.” Twice. Like, he repeated it.

    Lots of words rhyme with “ation”. Maybe he was so proud he got it right that he had to repeat it.

  44. I honestly think I’ve seen this labor climate change ad a dozen times while watching the Warriors Blazers game. Probably well targeted in my mind considering the NBA’s popularity with young people

  45. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 12:52 pm

    I’m finally catching up with Amy today.

    Josh Frydenberg actually just said these words, in this order. “Labor will tax your aspiration, they’ll tax your inspiration, they’ll tax your perspiration.” Twice. Like, he repeated it.

    Lots of words rhyme with “ation”. Maybe he was so proud he got it right that he had to repeat it.

    Verbal masturbation!

  46. Why is anyone surprised the odds are shortening? This is what happens in horse racing as it gets closer to the race.

    If you widen the odds out enough there will be someone that will throw speculative money at the underdog or also ran. That’s how bookies make their dough? By tempting people into losing bets.

    The reflective odds will be the ones available just before counting starts and they should be a lot closer than current levels.

  48. Izzy

    I agree, acting as if the odds of a LNP victory coming in from $6 to $5.5 means anything meaningful is a bit silly to me.

  49. My son (26 year old) accidentally watched Kerrie-ann Kennel’s rant this morning. He was appalled and said it would actually make him more inclined to vote for the ALP. He had never heard of her (I told him she was somewhat of Queensland elitist IMHO) which I would guess means she would be mostly preaching to the converted anywho.

  50. Some late money going onto coalition. TAB 1.18/5.00

    As someone said above – these markets are reactive. Someone with some dosh reads a pro coalition headline and decides that ‘item’ might move the election.

    Unlikely, but gamblers aren’t always rational … the temptation for a big payout outweighs logic much of the time.

    Plus we have a mentality that if it could happen in the US it cold happen here (and likely those punters do not understand the difference between optional and compulsory preferential voting,

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