Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.
Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.
The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.
BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.
However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.
As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.
The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:
Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.
spr
Smell-a-rat: when the Right starts moaning about the fate of Bald Eagles.
I’m watching the NBA draft lottery on ESPN, and it’s choc full of Labor attack ads
Bill Shorten on now. Looks Town Hall style.
Arky
I agree with you. I’m sure as well that that’s what Abbott meant.
Regarding Morrison NOT prepared to name the likely LNP minister in his post election government; he doesn’t know which of his current lot will still be parliamentarians after Saturday.
Rocket Rocket says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 10:18 am
Point at the instructions on the Senate ballot paper, that’s all you should need.
Barney,
Are Arabic Numbers Hal-al?
Shorten announcing first Summit in Perth.
Arky, what I get from the Abbott quote is that in his mind if it’s not written down it doesn’t count. Abbott often said things like “No cuts to the ABC.”
I received this CBA/Morgan email yesterday and I know it is genuine (but I never answer these sort of “were you happy with the service” emails anyway).
I had to phone CBA on the weekend when it appeared someone might have used my card at a shop. Thankfully there was no problem but it seems the merchant had linked another person’s card number to my customer details (of course that is a problem in itself). I am trying to get the merchant to cancel me as a customer to prevent a similar occurrence in future.
E. G. Theodore says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 10:29 am
To be fair, they did have some significance before they became a political Party! 🙂
boatswain1025 @ #248 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:48 am
Attack by or attack on?
Morrison should be asked who would be the libs/nats home affair minister if Dutton loses his seat
Barney in Saigon @ #212 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:18 am
I used to make a joke about the five star hotel I stayed at in Cairo for a few months. Something about the Arabic numeral for 5.
Was funny at the time.
Rocket rocket, yes, a single “1” above the line exhausts once that party is excluded.
Voters are instructed to number six boxes in the Senate, but a single “1” is formal.
The AEC official was wrong.
Briefly:
Serious question. Do you really think posts like yours are actually serving the Labor party’s interests? Assuming they could actually translate your wanton thesaurus abuse and near-incomprehensible Briefly-ese into plain English, just what sort of impression do you think your contributions would leave on the various undecideds and dissected lefties that the ALP are courting votes and preferences from? And, yes, I realize that the vast majority of people reading this blog are partisan tragics who have made their voting decisions long ago, but from the sounds of it, you are making much the same arguments in-person at polling booths. (Something that, here in QLD, at least, Labor specifically instructs its HTV volunteers not to do – and for good reason.)
All I can say is that I’m very glad Labor’s actual elected MPs and candidates do not use the same approach as many of the faithful here when it comes to winning over hearts and minds.
Yep, a single 1 above the line will just be a vote for that party, nothing more. The AEC official is clearly getting confused with how things worked pre-senate reform.
Sounds like that AEC official (like many voters) still think above the line is Group Voting Tickets somehow.
Not that surprising when a lot of people (myself included) observed AEC staff last election instructing people to number exactly 1-6 above or exactly 1-12 below, instead of “at least”.
I would probably make a direct report to the AEC so they’re aware that they might need to do more training next time.
Overheard four council workers discussing the election on my walk to the train station this morning.
Chatting about sham contracting – one fellow clearly understood the problem and was explaining how Labor were going to do something about it.
It was good to hear!
Barney Adrian et al
I am still feeling very upset about this. I know that many people have trouble understanding the senate voting especially as it has changed and I wouldn’t even be surprised if many AEC workers didn’t know that a “1” was in fact a formal vote.
But it is very upsetting to see them telling someone that it is a formal vote then misleading them as to what that vote means.
I rang the AEC and they confirmed I was right – they weren’t allowed to talk to the AEC person at my end. They told me to advise them to contact their supervisor which I did.
As well as putting a formal complaint in to the AEC online.
“Did a third party make a physical deposit into your account on that day. Their system may have assumed that you were present in person. Happened to me a couple of times.”
definitely not.
Will contact bank now.
LR
Labor attack ads on the coalition, the climate change one and just general anti-Morrison ones. I imagine a decent amount of people, especially young guys, will be watching the NBA finals today and tomorrow.
Smart of Shorten to do first IR summit in Perth. It will stop attacks from the usual subjects who will be in the room.
When you vote for the Senate, put the Australian Workers’ Party and the Pirate Party first and second (or vice versa), and put the Greens third. Then choose the Animal Justice Party, any socialist parties that are running, and Sustainable Australia Party. Then choose the ALP.
This is a great way to maximize a progressive outcome.
The Australian Workers’ Party and the Pirate Party both support a federally funded, locally administered Job Guarantee. They both support a federal government that uses its fiscal powers to achieve true full employment (not bogus NAIRU full employment), stable prices, sustainable resource use, and a low degree of inequality of wealth and income. They are by far the most progressive political parties in Australia.
SA Transport Minister Stephan Knoll is sounding more and more like a dumbed down version of Jeff Kennett.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-15/sa-transport-minister-wont-rule-out-privatising-trains-trams/11114208
There is not a shred of evidence that privatising public transport in OECD countries (where it needs subsidies) saves money. In most cases the privatised operators are bailed out later at taxpayers expense. Or the service goes so far downhill parts of it are closed down.
It’s not funny, it is atrocious.
For anyone interested here’s a link to the latest Graham Young poll from late April (Alp 53/47)
https://www.whatthepeoplewant.net/polls-blog/may-2019/could-this-be-a-watershed-poll.html
https://aip.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Polling_Report_Election_19_05_13.pdf
William, this election, perhaps more than any other before, will be an eminently seat-by-seat series of contests that cannot be predicted by a sweeping state or national 2PP, or even by local opinion polls that are more unreliable at the seat level.
I don’t think that at this stage anyone will argue against a Labor win in the Lower House, it’s the size of that win in terms of seats that’s in dispute. My impression is that the seats lost by the Coalition will be more numerous than what the opinion polls suggest, with most of those seats going to the ALP and some going to the Greens and Independents.
The Senate is of course an entirely different matter and, as usual in the past few federal elections, the party of government won’t control the Senate. So it will be up to the voters to vote Wisely and make sure that there is a working Progressive majority in the Senate, so that the ALP Federal government will be better able to negotiate an acceptable Progressive version of their original legislation.
Arcky
Yes that was happening in the last election in my polling booth, i took the person aside to explain that they were incorrect and basically they didn’t care… Complaint was sent to AEC….
boatswain1025 @ #268 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 11:03 am
Even living in the US for 18 years and attending a few games, I never got into the NBA. Seems like a minority demographic to go after. Probably just me. Interesting. Thanks. 🙂
When auto-correct makes it worse.
@ Late Riser…. a lot of younger folk go for the NBA big time. Smart move by the ALP.
Interesting poll on VoterChoice
https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-wave-14-election-weekly-survey-4/
This is not a wholly representative poll, and so the 53.2/46.8 TPP might be best judged in its movement, which shows a 1.9% drop in the Labor lead from last week. This is attributed to the reduction in the number of options in the real election choices. Unsure why this should have such a significant impact on TPP.
However, at the gross level, this indicates a still substantial lead for Labor based on the TPP.
Late Riser
Yes especially when you are feeling distressed and typing on a phone !
Rocket Rocket,
At the last election I voted in Phnom Penh on the first day of pre-polling.
All the information posters about Senate voting referred to the old system.
When I pointed this out to workers and the returning officer they indicated that they were oblivious to any change. The returning officer said that he had been instructed to use the materials from previous elections.
“Alpo says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:13 am
William, this election, perhaps more than any other before, will be an eminently seat-by-seat series of contests that cannot be predicted by a sweeping state or national 2PP, or even by local opinion polls that are more unreliable at the seat level.”
As is always the case!!
However, overall the unanticipated ups might be expected to offset the downs.
The Pirate Party also supports repealing 18c, which isn’t a very progressive policy. Also neither is going to get 4%, so by giving them your first preference you taking $2.50 from a progressive party that is going to get over the AEC threshold.
This is just a suggestion for Warringah from something I saw on LinkedIn. In Europe they are now building electric ferries, quite large scale.
https://new.abb.com/news/detail/10434/forsea-formerly-hh-ferries-group-completes-conversion-of-the-worlds-largest-battery-ferries-powered-by-abb
Why not suggest this for the required Sydney Ferry replacements? The Warringah electorate could get electric powered ferries to work. Something for the Labor/Green/Indy candidates perhaps?
Paultu – I just scroll posters such as the one you are addressing, so the most I see is occasional, and forgettable, snippets of their rantings that are referred to in others’ posts. By way of friendly advice, I think that engaging with them is not a productive use of time, as yes, they will argue on every issue and in every circumstance that their preferred political party is right, and that the very existence of other political parties is illegitimate. Once you’ve seen the rants once or twice you cab pretty much predict the content of every post from those individuals. There are many very good people in the Parliamentary ALP and amongst its members and supporters. I come from a generational ALP supporting background. However the outsize influence of people such as the one you are addressing in today’s ALP is one reason why I no longer provide them with my first preference vote, my financial support or on the ground support. I say that as one with a strong preference for the success of the ALP on Saturday, but I fear that the success of a future Labor Government may be limited if partisan zealots such as these have significant influence in it. It’s a great tragedy that the last Federal ALP government trashed the opportunity of being in government. How different the last decade would have been if Abbott et al had not happened.
areaman,
So such a vote would be saving the Australian taxpayer $2.50?
Coalition infighting breaks out …
“The Nationals are directing members to ignore how-to-vote cards and vote below-the-line in the Senate in a spectacular collapse of Coalition unity following Jim Molan’s rogue campaign for his own re-election.
In an email to members on Wednesday, the Nationals’ NSW state director Ross Cadell and chairman Bede Burke accused Senator Molan and his supporters of breaching the Coalition agreement by campaigning for a “below the line” vote.”
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/coalition-implodes-as-nationals-launch-their-own-below-the-line-campaign-against-jim-molan-20190515-p51nhd.html
until conservative parties stop taking public funding and don’t think progressive parties should.
What are the latest betting odds? Anyone?
A nice larf in the “quick questions” given to Shorten . Sharp reply from Bill 🙂
.
Q: Most annoying habit.
Shorten: Yours or mine?
Q: We are asking you the questions.
@briefly: f I wanted to read nonsense where commenters disparage a party by using the mangled name of another party to refer to them I’d buy a subscription to the Australian. Honestly your lib-kin stuff is exactly like the labor-lite stuff of the right and alt-right. If you want anyone to listen to you I suggest reassessing your strategy.
Nothing like a strong united Coalition! 😆
Of course in opposition there is no Coalition.
Geez, lead item on ABC news – the business council warns that Australia’s economy cannot afford an increase to the minimum wage.
This is news? And read with a straight face?
It’s not too hard to see the path to a Morrison victory.
Start with the Bludgertrack numbers: 79 ALP – 66 COAL.
Now, assume QLD disappoints (again) & Dutton & a couple others keep their seats, so the net gain is only 2 seats & not the projected 5:
76 ALP – 69 COAL
Assume NSW performs worse than expected, and 1 seat (Lindsay ?) goes from ALP to Coalition. That’s:
75 ALP – 70 COAL
Assume WA also disappoints, and there’s no net gain or loss:
74 ALP – 71 COAL
Assume ALP loses 1 seat in NT & 1 in TAS:
72 ALP – 73 COAL
Assume Wentworth & Indi return to the Coalition:
72 ALP – 75 COAL
If Katter & Sharkie side with the Coalition, while Bandt & Wilkie side with the ALP, then that’s:
74 ALP – 77 COAL
assumptions are the mother of all mistakes