Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.
Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.
The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.
BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.
However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.
As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.
The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:
Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.
Always remember low wages are the plank the Coaltion builds its economic policies on.
https://thewest.com.au/business/economy/federal-election-2019-workers-in-wa-marginal-seats-hardest-hit-by-real-wage-erosion-ng-b881199330z
The harder the Lib-kin try the worse things get. Consider, if the Lib-Libs win, they will practically accomplish the abolition of progressive income taxation. They will entirely disown any attempts to prevent climate change. They will further entrench financial, political and social inequality. They will make their peace with the Front for National Socialism, ON.
The Lib-kin are serious about assisting the Lib-Libs to win. They are instruments of the Lib-Lib political campaign.
briefly @ #184 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 9:49 am
I seems to suggest they cannot find the door flaps to the big tent and so are left outside the tent pining to get in.
LYONS Coalition 15.00 Labor 1.01
no option for whelan at beteasy
PaukTu says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:56 am
The Lib-kin campaign for the defeat of Labor. The Lib-kin are no light on any hill. They are a bucket of sand.
a r – the stream of garbage known as seat polls are tomorrow from 10am 🙂
a r
I think it’s tomorrow!
Waiting waiting …….
booleanbach, the Lib-kin want to set fire to the tent. They hope for the eradication of Labor.
On polls – Morgan frustrate me. Twenty years ago they came out weekly, commissioned by The Bulletin.
They survey people every week for lots of commercial stuff but also I believe usually add the political questions. But rarely report the political stuff – maybe the analysis is too expensive to run all the time and they’ve lost most potential buyers?
@Geetroit….You’re welcome ……it was a pleasure….!
“I doubt if even Rowland himself would consider that he’s a real journalist. ABC presenter, maybe.”
Yes, but that’s a step up from his former jobs as a department store mannequin (and before that as a ventriolquist dummy and wooden puppet that wanted to be a real boy)
What good is a surplus EVER when the government issues its own currency, allows its currency to float in foreign exchange markets, has no foreign currency-denominated debts, and the external sector typically wants to net save the government’s currency?
The Australian Government can sustain fiscal deficits indefinitely.
The domestic private sector, on the other hand, cannot sustain deficits indefinitely.
If the external sector wants to run a surplus and the domestic private sector also wants to run a surplus, then guess what? The currency issuing government by definition must run a deficit that equals the sum of the other two sectors’ surpluses.
In Australia’s case, the external sector typically runs surpluses. It hasn’t run a deficit since 1973.
The domestic private sector typically wants to run surpluses. This is a good thing. It is healthy for households and businesses collectively to be spending less than they are earning (i.e. to be net saving).
The currency-issuing government needs to look at the spending and saving desires of the non-government sector (both domestic and external) and make sure that its own fiscal decisions satisfy those desires and also achieve full employment with price stability.
At the moment, the Australian Government deficit is too small, not too large. The evidence that the deficit is too small is that there are 700,000 unemployed, 1.1 million under-employed, and 900,000 hidden unemployed Australians. This is an immense amount of unused resources.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6226.0Main+Features1February%202018?OpenDocument
According to Steven Hail, a macroeconomist at the University of Adelaide, the federal government should be running a deficit of about $50 billion per year at present in order to bring unemployment down to 1 or 2 percent and eradicate underemployment and hidden unemployment. It would not be inflationary to do this – it would just be a matter of employing currently unused resources.
J341983 @ #202 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:05 am
Yep they haven’t made them up yet.
Phillip Lowe has been calling out stagnant wages growth since the day of his promotion to Governor of the RBA
He and his Board set interest rates remember
The Greens propose federal funding to ensure that participating artists receive a living wage. This is a good idea that can be made better by expanding it into a Job Guarantee. Everyone who wants paid work should be entitled to a decently paid living wage job whenever they want it. There will never be a shortage of socially valuable work for people who want to care for their communities and care for the planet. Artistic and cultural work can be included in a Job Guarantee. So can caring for your own dependent children, or elderly relative, or relative with a disability. So can completing a TAFE or university program. So can environmental restoration work. So can social and community work. So can small-scale public works. The only limit is our imagination.
https://themusic.com.au/article/yv7W3N_ewcA/greens-unveil-new-fund-to-help-pull-aus-artists-out-of-poverty
booleanbach says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 8:13 am
Fun fact:
If you actually travel to an Arabic Country, you’ll discover the numbers they use are different. I bought a cheap watch with them on to help me with the buses around Cairo. 🙂
0 ٠
1 ١
2 ٢
3 ٣
4 ٤
5 ٥
6 ٦
7 ٧
8 ٨
9 ٩
10 ١٠
Heard an AEC official telling someone that if they vote 1 above the line in the senate it will follow their how to vote card.
This is not true is it?
I told them they’re wrong.
Can someone give me a quick link to where it says that’s wrong.
“Yep they haven’t made them up yet.”
Same goes for Coalition costings.
As I understand it that 1 will go down that party then exhaust.
Mining industry not as popular amongst Queenslanders as previously thought – with political implications.
I inquired about that when I voted and was told it would be informal.
from the Guardian a few minutes ago – Abbott’s comments should dominate the news and decide the election (and the loss of his seat). My bet the rest of the MSM will run dead on the quote. Imagine if any ALP candiate said anything similar.
“Peter Hartcher has interviewed Tony Abbott for a profile in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age, which centres around his campaign to hold on to Warringah.
During the interview, Hartcher tackles Abbott’s campaign against Zali Steggall. Which brings us to this absolute nugget:
This is the nub of his campaign – a vote for Zali Steggall is a vote for Bill Shorten.
But hold on, Tony. That’s not what Steggall says at all. She says that, if elected to the crossbench in a hung Parliament and has to decide which party to support to form government, she would favour the Coalition. Not Labor.
“She’s not said that in writing or with any degree of conviction,” Abbott counters in an interview at Hemingway’s Manly cafe.
“I don’t believe her, given that she’s said her biggest issue by far is climate change and Labor has a much better climate change policy than the Coalition.”
The quote by Rebekha Sharkie re who she would support in a hung parliament makes no sense to me. She starts out by saying “I have said I supported libs in the past and recognise I have a non-labor seat.” – is she saying she is obliged by her constituents to back liberals by default? If so, the logic seems flawed since she also has a non-liberal seat. Isn’t she basically admitting she is really a liberal?
Also Kevin Mack sounds like a real nutter. He wants a royal commission into the M-D, but also wants water handed back to the farmers. errr isn’t the whole point of the RC push that too much was given back to the farmers – possibly corruptly?
speaking of roy morgan, I just got an email from them asking how my experience went at my local cba branch on the 9th may.
I haven’t been anywhere near my branch.
Don’t like the sound of this AT ALL.
Who is doing the 10 seat polls?
I smashed out a rant last night about truth in political campaigning with reference to Labor’s tax changes, and with the recommendation that the Feds follow the South Australian model of legal sanction for deceptive and false election material.
Taxing the Truth.
Also, I’ve been ‘blogging about the election and for some unknown reason I’ve failed to post my summaries to the delightful political tragics here. Sorry about that!
Train wreck presser for Morrison by the sounds of it so far.
The issue with truth in political advertising laws is that the truth in politics is a vague concept. It’s one of the issues I have with fact check. They often fact check things which are a matter of opinion, or are arguable. Besides, both parties want to keep open the option about lying about what the other party plans to do.
Boolranbach:
Actually, calling them “hasbeans” implies that they used to be significant; they might well be happy with that ….
pithicus @ #224 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:24 am
Did a third party make a physical deposit into your account on that day. Their system may have assumed that you were present in person. Happened to me a couple of times.
Morrison: “Now is not the time for experiments.”
When IS the time?
Victoria says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 8:34 am
Says the person who started the speculation here with her not so subtle hints!
nath says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:47 am
D&M, I did answer your Cromwell question somewhere. But to reiterate, not a fan. Not a member of the Protestant elite either!
—————————————
My great, great, great, great, great, great, great, grandfather, a cavalier and supporter of Charles I, died in one of the sieges of Pontefract Castle in Yorkshire surrounded by Cromwell’s Roundheads. They were not too kind to his wife when she tried to bring food to him. Sore winners that they were, they then proceeded to “compound” or heavily tax the widow’s estate.
I’ve never forgiven Cromwell!!
Nicholas, I agree with you. It’s a terrible pity that the political strategies of the Lib-Kin will prevent any of the measures on which agree from being implemented.
The successful pursuit of reform in Australia depends on the defeat of the Lib-Libs and their clones. This is obvious even to the Lib-Kin, yet they persist in working for the defeat of Labor at all times and in all places.
Morrison: “Who’s stopping the boats on Sunday?”
WHAT boats?
E. G. Theodore @ #225 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:29 am
The greens are decaf instant coffee
Might look like the real thing
Zero effect and bitter aftertaste
Yes, you should contact your bank right away.
Lev Lafayette @ #222 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:24 am
Thank you Lev. To quote from “Taxing the Truth”
I can only add: #NoMoreMorrison
Looks like the press have inside info on another of Scott’s brain farts.
Question: Prime Minister, on the deposit guarantee. Did the Housing Industry Association pitch this to the Government within the past two weeks?
Morrison: Not to me, no.
Question: Any other part of the Government, the Treasurer or the Treasurer’s office?
Morrison: You’d have to ask them.
Question: Have you had any conversations with that group or any other property groups about this?
Morrison: I haven’t, no.
Question: The Property Council?
Morrison: No.
Question: So this is… Did any department do any work on this policy before the care taker Government?
Morrison: The Treasurer and the Finance Minister and I have been discussing a series of options around this for weeks, going back to before the budget.
Its easy to get Higgins and Kooyong mixed up – both leafy liberal-but-progressive electorates, both have/had liberal deputy PMs/treasurers and both are facing strong greens challenge.
Bushfire Bill @ #227 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:31 am
I guess we need to end this one.
#NoMoreMorrison
Did the Housing Industry Association make a political donation to the Liberal Party and if so, how much?
“Who be Labor Home Affairs minister?” asks ScoMo.
But when asked who will be Coalition Indigenous Affairs minister…
“I’ll be making that decision after the election. With that I end this presser by saying … {Bill Shorten/Promise of Australia}.”
Hope that this research/poll proves to be near the final result!!
https://www.whatthepeoplewant.net/polls-blog/may-2019/could-this-be-a-watershed-poll.html
Isn’t that what his first homebuyer loan guarantee scam basically is?
“briefly says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 10:05 am
PaukTu says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:56 am
The Lib-kin campaign for the defeat of Labor. The Lib-kin are no light on any hill. They are a bucket of sand.”
So is it your opinion that any party with out the “Labor” tab must be wrong, simply because they are “outside the tent” rather than in it? Does Labor have the sole right to the path to salvation simply because of their name?
So whenever the Greens, Socialist Alliance, or Centre Alliance stand as separate entities against Labor they MUST be opposed, because they are not Labor?
Did you support Mark Latham at the time?
You reckon we have some troglodytes on Climate Change and renewables, check this out from Dotard…
President Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed that he had seen dead bald eagles “all over the place” because of energy-producing windmills.
“You are under assault,” Trump told a group of natural gas workers in Connecticut. “And now they talk about the Green New Deal. The Green New Deal. Everybody go home, you just lost your Jobs. The Green New Deal, that’s a hoax like the hoax I just went through.”
“Under that deal, everybody in this room gets fired,” he continued. “All of the thousands of guys and women standing in these buildings get fired, they go because under the Green New Deal, they don’t like clean, beautiful natural gas. They don’t like anything.”
Trump noted that progressive politicians “sort of like wind even though it kills all the birds.”
“You want to see a bird cemetery? Go under a windmill sometime,” the president ranted. “You will see the saddest, you got every type of bird. You know, in California you go to jail for five years if you kill a bald eagle. You go under a windmill, you see them all over the place. Not a good situation.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/trump-claims-hes-seen-piles-of-dead-bald-eagles-underneath-windmills-you-see-them-all-over-the-place/#.XNte4Yhc_-Z.twitter
It’s funny Morrison expects Labor to answer all these questions yet won’t answer any posed to him.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 10:16 am
The Greens propose…’
You hit the nail on the head right there.
Funny as the Abbott quote is, I’m fairly confident that Abbott meant that Steggall is saying that Labor has a better climate change policy, not that he thinks Labor has a better climate change policy.