Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.
Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.
Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:
Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.
Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.
Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.
Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.
There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.
I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:
As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.
In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.
UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.
The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.
Oliver Yates (on with Karvelas) has just done a superb dismissal of Frydenberg’s value as an Enviro minister or a future anything. Says he doesn’t care who wins as long as Frydenberg loses 😆
moderate @ #681 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 3:13 pm
Yep, unfortunately it’s close enough that the Libs could quite easily win, despite what logic would suggest about that.
Again, if you’re feeling despondent, take a look at the Liberal launch.
Winners are grinners.
All I am saying is it would become very Kubler-Ross-y in here…
I dont think that is fair. Some peeps are time poor, some less engaged and some both. They pick up the gist of a campaign where they can. Ads for the evening news. Snippets on the radio. Papers in a cafe waiting for their coffee. SKY news blaring stuff at them over a beer. It sinks in.
Sample size please. MOE?
LR could I be logged as 54-46 all the way to the election please.
{Happy to be wrong in the right direction}
This morning I bet $100 on a coalition win. Odds of 7/1 in a two horse race with the polls as close as they are just can’t be passed up. If this lot get back I’ll at least have a tidy few hundred by way of comfort. Sort of like an insurance policy.
The Libs could win but there have been a steady trickle of people who generally vote LNP saying ALP or Independent. Rarely registered ALP voters saying they will vote Lib. Then again the squeaky tax pocket of negative gearing might not be something usually Labor voters would want to talk about. Should be enough thinking voters who will shift based on chaos, Palmer, Abbott, climate change, GBR, MDB etc.
“All I am saying is it would become very Kubler-Ross-y in here…”
I predict that when Labor loses the election on the weekend this forum will be filled with denial and anger. Depression even. But I find it hard to discern any acceptance in my crystal ball.
Dirty money pedant. It might burn a hole in your pocket.
Moderate@3:59pm
You were right about NSW State election results when compared to Andrew-Earlwood impeccable sources. But much is at stake for this country’s future in this election. I really believe that a change of government will save this country.
Patrick Bateman @ #743 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 4:32 pm
Exactly as has been commented upon in today’s Crikey, wrt all the News Corpse publications:
My sister was telling me that although her office usually discusses politics a lot during election campaigns nobody is discussing it this time. Not really worth much but I found it an interesting anecdote.
Darn,
I’m still comfortable with my predictions of the outcome. I really don’t believe much has happened during the campaign to change voting opinions and the early polling numbers show a voting public intent on something, while the travel movements of the Shorten and Morrison tells you much about which seats they are looking to sure up. Both, are spending a lot of time in Liberal marginals.
I never take notice of seat polls and have absolutely no faith in the so called popularity measures. (Neither of which have shown to be reliable indicators in the past).
However, Newspoll has also changed their methodology which makes their TPP seem closer. Basically, there is speculation about the actual allocation of preferences by One Nation, Clive Palmer and the Conservative Indies by Newspoll. So, I’m just sticking with 52.5%/47.5% and Labor scoring 80-85 seats, the Libs 60-65 and the Independents 5-10.
I don’t think I’ll be far out.
Simon² Katich® @ #755 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 4:10 pm
Yeah look, sample space is mostly professionals/well educated people. Some of them do, terrifyingly, think the Australian is a legitimate publication. But most of my peers would rate the ABC, Guardian and InDaily miles ahead of the Advertiser.
The less engaged people are, the more they are just flipping to the back page for the sport, anyway.
I think the people you mention are more influenced by Sunrise and the like.
Nostradamus @ #753 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 4:42 pm
I just hope you piss off if Labor wins.
“It would be fun if Essential comes in
at 53/47 and IPSOS 50/50 ”
Oh dogs no. Bloody Stirrer. 🙂
To clarify: I predicted Labor would win this thing and I stick by that. A lot more ifs are involved in the Coalition winning than with Labor, and not seeing a single poll with the Coalition leading also doesn’t help them either. I am prepared for the possibility of disappointment on Saturday but, on the balance of things, I am still way more confident of a Labor win.
I just think some people here are like a stack of plates and close polling rattles them to no end. (And no, I am not talking about the pessimists; I refer to the people who lash out a lot.)
boatswain1025@4:00pm
Libs moderate
Nostradamus, I reckon you’d have trouble predicting what colour your next poo will be.
Thanks GG
I think an AWFUL lot of us were actually right about the NSW results.
I know I made it very clear that I thought the idea of a majority Labor Government was a joke. It was a bubble mentality. Many here think the NSW Govt was bad, most people I spoke to were at best… non-plussed, very few were legitimately angry. The Libs had an agenda, a vision and what I kept hearing from friends was “why the hell are they still talking about the stadium?”
While Labor would have done much better under compulsory preferential, especially in those tight marginals, the system is the system.
Plus once Labor started openly talking about its internals… that’s when I absolutely knew they were done. The party doing well in internals, rarely talks about them. My friend in the party, who never gives me detail, when I mentioned that people were talking about Labor winning, laughed and said “with about six months more… maybe”.
I just love listening to the Scott Morrison read to air on ABC radio especially the “Now is not the time to change” line. When does a encumbant government ever think a change is a good idea? So changing leaders too was ok as that is all in the past? That drag alone will get the ALP over the line. It won’t be close…
IPSOS
Labor 52-48
In honour of the real Nostradamus, a prediction for this weekend:
Those at ease will suddenly be cast down,
the world put into trouble by three brothers;
their enemies will seize the marine city,
hunger, fire, blood, plague, all evils doubled.
Lynchpin @ #764 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 4:48 pm
“You were right about NSW State election results when compared to Andrew-Earlwood impeccable sources.”
Ven:Other than when I was doing some awesome cognitive dissonance on Tuesday-Wednesday night, I’m not sure there was difference in our take or what our respective sources were saying. The fact is that the protest vote that was there, and leaning to labor never came across in that last week of white noise. The lnp primary vote fell dramatically, but labor picked up none of it. In fact all 4 established parties (lib, Nat, labor and greens) took a hit but the government took the biggest hit on its PV, but got lucky due to the exhaust rate – which was actually higher than 2015. They effectively sandbagged the marginals on the back of that exhaust vote.
There is no exhaust voting at the federal election.
But as moderate says, it will be an interesting night on Saturday night.
@Patrick Bateman
Lol
Put me down for. 52-48 result for post essential and (for what it’s worth) Ipsos.
I’m hoping for a big gain in tonight’s essential on labor’s PV: 34 is way too low.
You know the real Nostradamus didn’t predict anything either, right? He just wrote some random cryptic shit and people later just started fitting future events to those words, based on vague reaches. Like mentioning a king dying must be about JFK or something.
Pretty much only when the predictions are retroactively made based on his writing do they “come true.” Any prediction of events yet to happen by his interpreters almost never pan-out, or are so broad it could describe a wide type of events that would inevitably happen.
Goll @ #768 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 4:52 pm
ltep @ #757 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 4:44 pm
Intersting though if the discussion has gone quiet. No-one is game to divulge. Things have changed and perhaps they’re embarrassed. Any idea of the her typical office leanings?
Agree with the people above commenting on the tone of these threads; a few weeks ago I had the nerve to predict a (narrow) Coalition win and had the full wrath of the Pyjamahideen come my way. As if my predicting it somehow makes it more likely.
That and attacks on my faith (mainstream Christianity).
I’m pretty sure this site is supposed to be a discussion of electoral matters, how did it become so overrun with rabid partisan trolls?
Quite entertaining today on Poll Bludger.
Meanwhile chez KayJay
a rare visitor
🐦🐦🐦🐦🦅🦅🦅🦉🦉🦉
Varied I think. She did mention one is a very loud Liberal voter (who will still vote Liberal but is not talking this time). I think it probably mostly reflects people not being overly enamoured with any political party at the moment.
I really hope if Labor are elected they can restore some faith in the political system.
I going for
Tuesday
Essential 53-47% to labor
Friday night /saturday morning, newspoll and essential will be using decimal points
Newspoll 52.2-47.8 to Labor
Essential 53.2 -46.8 to Labor
I’d love to see some statewide numbers.
I did make a little error earlier. I expressed incredulity that there would be no swing at all to Labor in SA seats (presuming there is one nationally.) Upon reflection, it’s possible that little-to-no swing to Labor or a small swing to the Coalition could happen on the basis of correction from the NXT vote disappearing.
I agree that people predicting an alternative outcome to the expected should not be shouted down. But part of the problem is that too many seem to not be interested in explaining why or reducing it to pure childish taunts… or concern (or legit) trolling aka “Labor will lose because Shorten is shit or something about Bill we can’t afford…”
I’m very happy to explain in detail why I’m predicting a clear ALP win, and I think most of us should make more of an effort to do that.
Daniel Broadbridge, while I don’t doubt you were attacked and I am sure it was undeserved, I sincerely hope you weren’t phrasing it in a way that was “HAHAHA. SUFFER LABOR LUVVIES. MORRISON IS GOING TO CRUISE TO VICTORY AND ALL YOU HAPPY CLAPPERS WILL BE SHEDDING TEARS LOLOLOLOL” or otherwise intentionally hostile, as some others turn out to be doing when they claim victimhood here.
Everyones had their bit of fun. Ths polls will now all head south for the Abbott/Joyce/Morrison/Dutton/McWho/Fry LNP government.
King Billy is the next PM, and the haters will be out and about by Monday 20th, hangovers and all, some well known characters will go into further hiding, signalling the end of the most ignorant of eras, the dishonest Howard years and the second raters aspiring above their ability.
We begin the Renaissance on the 20th May in the 21st Century under the leadership of a very capable leader and a superb front bench.
Go Labor!
Goll @ #768 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 4:52 pm
Just checking. I’ve updated your guess from “53/47 until the election” to Ipsos 52/48, Essential 53/47. 🙂
Late riser – put me down for 51/49 for the rest of the week (except the large sample one on Saturday)
I don’t see a problem with Clive running his campaign from Fiji; after all George Christenson runs his electorate from The Philippines.
Once Clive becomes PM (at this election if his polling has anything to do with it) he can just relax and continue to run things from Fiji; you know – cabinet meetings, question time, meeting with visiting dignitaries like The Donald.
One aspect of elections that few people have spoken about is the relative length of time a party is in govt and how the public views the idea of “taking turns” after 2 terms (like the Americans appear to believe)
Late Riser
Love ya work!
Late Riser @ #785 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:05 pm
Damn. I thought Goll had the latest Ipsos poll result. My bad.
GG
I think your thinking and outcome are spot on.
I am amazed at some of the comments here on a pseph blog, many by people who have been around here for years and apparently have learned nothing. Perhaps they never read what WB says at the top of each thread and at other times.
Polls are just number games and are subject to the vagaries of arithmetic and how the pollster uses arithmetic. They are handy hints about what might be happening in the absence of any other concrete data.
But there is plenty of other data which suggests that if Labor is to lose, a sudden poll change to the extent of about 53-47 to Coalies this week, with a plausible explanation of what precipitated it, would be required IMHO.
We have a government with no policies, any talent they had now gone, a huge inside philosophical divide and antagonism and instability, a PM who delusionally thinks he and his great skills can do it alone, half a dozen hated budgets behind them, manifestly favouring the top end etc etc.
They are up against a stable 6 years old talented and experienced team, a leader of 6 years who has cohered them, 6 years of strong policy work behind them, a team that all but beat them in 2016 with them performing worse since then, etc etc
Add to this the fact that rarely is there a uniform national result on Election Day. A poll lead as low as 50.5- 49.5 can mean a big Labor win depending on what happens in individual seats.
Agree with J341983. Have not see a clear and concise narrative here for a LNP path to winning government. Instead one liners, especially negative about Shorten. Welcome the view on a LNP path to victory.
pajamahideen
That’s not very polite or christian of you, Daniel Broadbridge, either!
booleanbach
Until the Fijian islands disappear under rising sea levels.