Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. The Courier Mail apparently has a front page story tomorrow that is bad for Shorten. Could this be the start of the low rent campaign against him, waged by News Ltd?

  2. The fact that Kroger and lots of Liberals are complaining about the large number of prepoll votes shows they think that overall it is bad for them – maybe encouraging some young people who would not otherwise vote.

  3. “if Labor is getting hammered in safe Lib seats but doing well in marginals that would explain a great deal. ”

    Yup. On the issues that i think have had the highest profiles hip pocket wise (Neg Gearing / Franking Credits, Tax) i reckon they are likely to have the biggest affect in seats the Libs hold already with respectable margins.

    Its entirely plausible and even likely that the Libs are getting some votes back, but not in the seats they need to win.

    I that happens, expect to hear loud guffaw and the clinking of glasses from the Governors Residence in W.A. on the night

  4. God, this place… an actually OK poll on the fundamentals for Labor comes out and people are pissy or paranoid …

    We keep being told that people have made their minds up. Which makes these generally sticky polls make sense.

    I have no expectation it will be that close Hilbilly, but I’ll take a majority however small.

  5. I also predict careful analysis by WB and KB, using more realistic assumptions for pref. distribution, will both show 52:48.

  6. Apologies if already posted:

    It’s Rob Oakeshott’s shout if he ever runs into actor Russell Crowe in a northern NSW cafe.

    The Hollywood star is keen to see the independent return to politics and has thrown his support behind him on Twitter.

    “Coffs Harbour. We’ve got big issues concerning us all,” he tweeted to his 2.71 million followers.

    He cited healthcare and infrastructure as the biggest issues confronting the area.

    “Think independently. Oakeshott for Cowper,” he said.

    Mr Oakeshott, the one-time kingmaker who helped Labor form government in 2010, said he humbly accepted the support.

    “This is totally out of the blue and rest assured if I ever run into him, I’ll be offering to buy him a coffee, because that kind of support is greatly appreciated,” he said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-12/federal-election-day-31-coalition-campaign-launch-russell-crowe/11105250

  7. Lib-Libs @ 39%….cannot win. Labor @ 37%….can eke out a precarious win….

    This feels underdone to me. I suspect it’s not fully capturing the effects of Labor’s field campaigns in the target seats. These campaigns are formidable. They will be the difference between winning and losing.

  8. “Paul Murray mentioned it on his Sky show. No details though.”

    Probably be a story, sorry yarn, about Shorten being a member of a union.

  9. The comment about gains in NSW and QLD will offset losses in VIC is interesting. If its a Melbourne metro swing that would explain the Kooyong obsession.

    Seems like a 0.5-1.0% PV lift to the Liberals in the next week will make it a real cliffhanger.

    Amazing the ALP has managed to blow it from what was a lay down certainty after Turnbull was cooped.

  10. I’m over the liberal lies about bill Shorten and they are so desperate they will do anything to look after the big end of town and not look after the poor

  11. “Amazing the ALP has managed to blow it ”
    Your thesis being that they’re not progressive enough, which is pushing people to the LNP?

  12. Confessions, it may be the story that surfaced 6 years ago. I understand it was investigated and went nowhere. It will be a grubby smear. Will it work? I guess some will be swayed. If it is what I think it is Shorten needs to hit it for six.

  13. I actually think that psychologically this result isn’t good for the Liberals.

    They needed a 50/50 result for spin purposes and didn’t get it.

  14. As Labor cleaned the mess up very well after last week’s shit smear from The Daily Telegraph and The Courier Mail, to the extent that it actually became an advantage for them in the end, no doubt the same clean-up team will be onto the new one toot sweet to shut it down and turn it around to Labor’s advantage.

  15. There was some chatter this morning on the Insiders twitter about News Ltd having a dirt file story to go on Shorten. I’m not going to reference it here or say what is about but if people want to have a look for it….go for it.

  16. If the Lib-kin do come in @ 9% perhaps they will reconsider the merits of their persistent anti-Labor campaigning. Interestingly, a local Lib-kin, well-known to me, suggested they thought they’d do better in upper-income districts than in less well-heeled ones. Maybe they will see their growth in competing as alt-Lib and will suspend the claim-jumping they’ve waged against Labor for the last 25 years.

  17. Labor has been very smart over the last few weeks with its tactics on Newscorp.

    Interesting to see the Courier Mail story tomorrow. I am sure Shorten and labor are very well prepared.

  18. Lynchpin:

    News Ltd have signaled throwing the kitchen sink at Shorten. Given this is News Corp I’m expecting the absolute worst of the worst.

  19. Some garbage on Twitter that Shorten was bi at University, and that’s the story.

    Surely they couldn’t be that stupid??

  20. @doyley – the double-whammy of a shit file story and some dodgy seat polls will no doubt trigger a collective suicide watch around here.

    I think I’ll stay away lol

  21. Hillbilly
    Yeah I know … but after a week clearly dominated by Labor at every turn, where the betting markets surged to 1:6 in ALPs favour… call me old fashioned, but this poll has got to be horseshit .

  22. briefly
    says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 10:10 pm
    If the Lib-kin do come in @ 9% perhaps they will reconsider the merits of their persistent anti-Labor campaigning. Interestingly, a local Lib-kin, well-known to me, suggested they thought they’d do better in upper-income districts than in less well-heeled ones. Maybe they will see their growth in competing as alt-Lib and will suspend the claim-jumping they’ve waged against Labor for the last 25 years.
    ____________________________________
    Claim jumping. The people voted Greens. Unless you want to deny them their vote and insist that the ALP represent them in perpetuity.

  23. adrian
    says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 10:12 pm
    Some garbage on Twitter that Shorten was bi at University, and that’s the story.
    Surely they couldn’t be that stupid??
    ___________________________________
    pics or it didn’t happen.

  24. adrian says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 10:05 pm
    Hope you’re right briefly. Good to see the optimism returning.

    I’ve seen the self-pity in the eyes of the Lib-loyal. It offers its own reassurance. They reckon they’re beaten.

  25. Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, The Greens 9%, One Nation 4%, and the United Australia Party 4%, someone else 7%

    My 2PP calculation is ALP = 0 + 37 + 7.2 + 1.4 + 1.4 + 3.5 = 50.5.

  26. Kevin Bonham
    ‏ @kevinbonham
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll I get the previous-election preferences for these primaries at about 51.7 to Labor. By Newspoll’s current method on average they would get 51.1 off these primaries so rounding is probably a non-issue this week (ditto last week).

  27. Kevin Bonham
    ‏ @kevinbonham
    1m1 minute ago

    #Newspoll I get the previous-election preferences for these primaries at about 51.7 to Labor. By Newspoll’s current method on average they would get 51.1 off these primaries so rounding is probably a non-issue this week (ditto last week).

  28. It makes sense now that Labor rushed to match the Liberals first home buyers initiative so quickly today. Desperate times.

  29. Confessions @ #19 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 10:06 pm

    citizen:

    Russell Crowe lives in Coffs Harbour? I thought he lived in Sydney.

    Fess
    Crowe has a property at Nana Glen, west of Coffs, so is seen around there often. We have a young rellie up there who is in awe of Crowe.
    We’ve seen him in a couple of Netflix things lately and he’s a good on the screen. More power to him for backing Rob O

  30. Uninformed bit of tinfoil hat speculation: I would assume that whatever story the Murdoch minions are putting out tomorrow would be based on a story that has been known through the press gallery for a while. If so, it is telling that no one else has touched it, but further that the various bits of commentary from CPG types over recent days have mostly been lining up behind “Shorten and the ALP are on track for government”. If the CPG types thought there was even the chance of the ALP campaign being completely derailed I think – even if they were avoiding the story itself with a barge pole – that they’d have been more circumspect in their commentary.

    Oh well, we’ll know soon enough.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *