Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 29
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  1. If only Scummo was selling 2nd hand cars. After listening to him in his Presser from WA right now I’d buy one straight away.

    I’ll also get steak knives and a return trip to Lord Howe Island.

  2. J341983 @ #779 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:00 pm

    I agree that people predicting an alternative outcome to the expected should not be shouted down. But part of the problem is that too many seem to not be interested in explaining why or reducing it to pure childish taunts… or concern (or legit) trolling aka “Labor will lose because Shorten is shit or something about Bill we can’t afford…”

    I’m very happy to explain in detail why I’m predicting a clear ALP win, and I think most of us should make more of an effort to do that.

    Well, if the polls at the end of week widen then I’ll agree with you on a clear ALP win, but right now it’s line ball according to most polling and that suggests a minority Govt is a real possibility that needs acknowledgement.

  3. C@tmomma
    says:
    Damn. I thought Goll had the latest Ipsos poll result. My bad.
    __________________________________
    Another one of those ‘top barrister’ ‘lesbian partner’, ‘muslim call to prayer tower’ moments?

  4. Scott just flew all the way from Sydney to Perth for a 1 hour electoral thingy and is flying back now. shades of Chrsitmas Island!

    Peter van Onselen
    ‏
    Verified account

    @vanOnselenP
    21m21 minutes ago
    More
    So the PM flew from Sydney to Perth for….wait for it….one hour today and is flying all the way back to Sydney shortly. ‍♂️ #auspol

  5. Good TV news pics tonight of Bill Shorten getting mobbed by school kids on the Central Coast of NSW, that sort of positive imagery always helps in the last week of a campaign.
    So Shorten today was in Reid, and then in Robertson.
    Morrison was in Lindsay, then jetted off to WA for an hour, and now is back in Sydney.

  6. Poll Bludger is a mix of nerves, paranoia, hopeful optimism, and that’s before the inevitable Labor vs Green war starts up again.
    Anyway, an interesting place to lurk around this week.

  7. @Daniel Broadbridge

    People are reading too much into the Murdoch news there for they are part of the problem.

  8. The biggest problem with Labor’s chances is the 17% Undecided. I’d figure people who haven’t decided yet are telling fibs or just not watching/listening. Sadly, there was an example of the latter on the ABC news today. A reporter was asking people in Sturt who they were voting for. One young woman who was a teacher (maybe) said she was keen to vote of the party who funded education the most. She was undecided. How could anyone not know that Labor had education as a higher priority?

  10. “So the PM flew from Sydney to Perth for….wait for it….one hour today and is flying all the way back to Sydney shortly”

    At least it cost less than his trip to Christmas Island.

  15. RL, absolutely not. Rest assured I would be very glad to be wrong.

    For the record, I’m expecting a case of the “Shy Tory Effect” to show up on election night (or afterward – with so many prepolls to be counted, how long will it be until we have a clear picture?). In most election campaigns, polls at the beginning of the campaign have overstated Labor support. Although I’ve been reading with interest William’s interpretations of the 2PP from Newspoll’s primary votes – it may be that two errors cancel out and Newspoll’s 51-49 is on the money after all.

    This campaign feels to me much like 2010 – neither side really has a killer blow; a lot of people jaded with both sides. There are some decent independents around though.

  16. When following campaigns it is wise to remember that in a save the furniture campaign it can look like a winning campaign in spin terms.

    Just remember we had some honesty on Insiders.

    Morrison is not sounding like a winner to me in this presser.
    The questions from journalists are not the ones you get to a winning team.

    Despite the election campaign hype the paths to victory are still in Labor’s favour. We just now have the mantra of it’s close and don’t discount a Trumpian style outcome. The only thing to remember is we have compulsory voting and a Trumpian style outcome would see Labor win.

    Ignore Victoria and Labor is ahead due to purely independent challenges. Remember we don’t hear much from the bush. Also remember Morrison was campaigning in Cowper against Oakshott

    Then add in Victoria and the outcome is obvious. The only real conjecture is how much Labor wins by.

  18. Flying to Perth from Sydney for one hour seems an incredibly wasteful use of time and resources five days before an election.
    But who knows? Maybe he just found the Weirdstone of Electoral Invincibility.

  19. From PVO

    So the PM flew from Sydney to Perth for….wait for it….one hour today and is flying all the way back to Sydney shortly. ‍♂️ #auspol 

    Make that what you will…

  20. a r
    says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:20 pm
    nath @ #797 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:13 pm
    Another one of those ‘top barriest’ ‘lesbian partner’, ‘muslim call to prayer tower’ moments?
    Well of course, everything looks bad if you remember it.
    ______________________
    I can’t help but remember. It’s some of the best unintentional comedy you can find!

  21. Psyclaw
    What surprises me is just how stable the Newspoll results are. With the sample size used it should not be as it is.

  22. I also don’t see a path to victory for the LNP currently. Their best shots for pick ups are Herbert, Lindsay, Indi and Wentworth. You can Chuck in some seats like Braddon, Bass and Solomon but it’s unlikely to me they’ll win more than 3 max seats at best.

    They then need to not lose many marginals at all, QLD has a 3% swing on according to the recent state poll with most of that likely in SE QLD, which is seats like Bonner, Forde, Dickson, Petrie and possibly Brisbane. Leichardt is a risk as well, and then the marginals in CQ.

    Then there’s 3-4 seats in NSW, 3-5 odd seats in Victoria, Boothby, and ~3 seats in WA all at risk of falling to labor.

    Add onto that safe seats like Warringah, Kooyong, Farrer and Cowper in trouble, it makes it even harder to see the LNP getting to 76.

    With a national swing at about 2% currently it’s hard to see how the libs gain a net 3 seats to win and labor don’t at least get 4 of those above seats to get to 76.

  23. Late Riser – if the poll guessing game is still going, please put me down for ALP 51:49 for any remaining polls before the big day.

  24. Welfare groups have slammed a “scare campaign” by real estate agents across Australia, who are warning tenants that Labor’s negative gearing policy will send rents soaring and lift the unemployment rate.

    The Real Estate Institute of Australia is co-ordinating the campaign, claiming it has already reached 8 million Australians through Facebook and direct mail to renters, owners and investors on its data base.

    In one letter, a Raine & Horne real estate agent, Graham Cockerill, writes, “Dear tenant, the Real Estate of Institute of Australia has never been involved in politics but feel the changes that will occur if we have a change of politics will be devastating”.
    …
    But ACOSS chief executive Cassandra Goldie said the claims were untrue.

    “These are wild claims, not backed by any evidence whatsoever,” she said.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/13/negative-gearing-scare/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%20201905013

  27. I just know what Morrison will say to this. “We’re already taking all the action that is needed. Aren’t we, Josh?”

    Lead lawyer Sophie Marjanac said the complaint would demonstrate how climate change inaction was violating people’s basic rights to live safely and in their ancestral homelands.

    “Australia’s continued failure to build infrastructure to protect the islands, and to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, constitutes a clear violation of the islanders’ rights to culture, family and life,” she said.

    Eight islanders from four Torres Strait islands are making the complaint.

    They have also launched a petition demanding a series of commitments from the government. They want Australia to stop using and exporting thermal coal for electricity generation and achieve zero net emissions before 2050.

    They’re also seeking at least $20 million for protective infrastructure such as sea walls and to help islands adapt so they can remain habitable.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/qld/2019/05/13/torres-strait-climate-change-un/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%20201905013

  28. And of course, we all trust the Real Estate Institute of Australia – maybe as much as we trust the Used Car Sales Institute of Australia – or maybe not quite as much.

  29. Maybe, just maybe, Scommo and the crew have no idea what they are doing and are just filling in time

  30. FredNK

    Thus William’s article in Crikey.

    I put it down to a volatile electorate. Not from the left. For us it’s the same battles and no DLP.

    The right has a DLP style split and like us the polling companies have no idea how preferences are going to flow. That’s not taking into account how the ground game is going to be.

    The disendorsed candidates have freed up Green resources in Melbourne including with where to send people for that ground game. It’s done the same for Labor too. That’s just one example.

    Thanks to Whelan in Tasmania it won’t just be GetUp in Bass making a difference

  31. Here’s my prediction: people daft or nervous enough to think the LNP are a show will be saying this on Saturday night:

    “Hey… maybe those THREE YEARS OF CONSISTENT POLLS were trying to tell us something after all?”

    Also the 1998 style defense of marginals is not an option: this is a minority government and needs a net increase on seats.

    This will *absolutely* not occur, with the LNP losing seats to both ALP and Indies.

    Therefore like the nations punters and pollsters do I conclude:

    85% chance Labour Majority
    7.5% Labour led Minority government
    5% LNP led minority
    2.5% LNP Victory

  32. It seems to me odd that many of the disciples who congregate here on what, when all is said and done, is a psephological site guided by poll aggregation choose to ignore those numbers entirely and resort, in panic, to the equivalent of the sacrifice of a chook and an attempt to divine the future from its entrails.

  33. Psyclaw @ #793 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    GG

    I think your thinking and outcome are spot on.

    I am amazed at some of the comments here on a pseph blog, many by people who have been around here for years and apparently have learned nothing. Perhaps they never read what WB says at the top of each thread and at other times.

    Polls are just number games and are subject to the vagaries of arithmetic and how the pollster uses arithmetic. They are handy hints about what might be happening in the absence of any other concrete data.

    But there is plenty of other data which suggests that if Labor is to lose, a sudden poll change to the extent of about 53-47 to Coalies this week, with a plausible explanation of what precipitated it, would be required IMHO.

    We have a government with no policies, any talent they had now gone, a huge inside philosophical divide and antagonism and instability, a PM who delusionally thinks he and his great skills can do it alone, half a dozen hated budgets behind them, manifestly favouring the top end etc etc.

    They are up against a stable 6 years old talented and experienced team, a leader of 6 years who has cohered them, 6 years of strong policy work behind them, a team that all but beat them in 2016 with them performing worse since then, etc etc

    Add to this the fact that rarely is there a uniform national result on Election Day. A poll lead as low as 50.5- 49.5 can mean a big Labor win depending on what happens in individual seats.

    Thank you for the endorsement.

    I’m sure if you spent more time agreeing with me and less critiquing fellow PBers you’d become an icon of this blog.

    I actually agree with your content as well as your endorsement in this instance.

    Because I believe this will be a variable swing , I find it hard to come up with anything but a range for the final seat outcome. This won’t be a nearest the pin Election, more nearest the golf course.

  34. Bellwether @ #828 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:32 pm

    It seems to me odd that many of the disciples who congregate here on what, when all is said and done, is a psephological site guided by poll aggregation choose to ignore those numbers entirely and resort, in panic, to the equivalent of the sacrifice of a chook and an attempt to divine the future from its entrails.

    You post as if that’s a bad thing!

  36. GG – I take the deliberate shit-stirrer posts for what they are.

    Nasties like nath are here for a purpose … not to actually contribute … but to niggle from the sidelines and promote uncertainty … and most of all get a reaction so they can go back to their caves and giggle to themselves.

    I get that and can happily ignore such noise.

    Those who actually look at the polling (as is the reason for being here) and discuss issues related to that polling … maybe discussing why one might think a poll has ‘reacted’ in a certain way is what I am here for.

    Yes I am a staunch Laborite but I, for one, don’t deny others’ rights to say thing that I regard as ignorant/crazy/deliberately corrosive or inflammatory. But by the same token, I don’t feel the need to pay them any credence.

  37. David Crowe from the SMH and the Age has reported Julia Banks is talking to lawyers about those Advance Australia flyers we pointed to you a few posts ago (in Alex Turnbull’s tweet). From Crowe’s story:

    These are the dirty tricks we have come to expect from the major parties,” [Julia Banks told the paper]

    “I expect nothing less from the Liberal Party, who treat women with such contempt.

    “The current Liberal Party of Australia don’t want more women in Parliament. The Liberals don’t want women to have equality. The Liberals don’t want women to have choices.”

    Rather than referring to claims of bullying, the Advance Australia flyer asserted the events occurred.

  39. Perhaps Shouty McFace decided to spend 2 x 4 hour flights in the air to avoid any hard questions by the media.

    Oops realised my mistake, does the media know what a hard question is to ask the PM?

  40. Put in the hard work, look at the Sydney FC result, the Morrison mob have nothing left, incapable of governing fairly, gone soon.
    My sincere apologies C@t.

  41. I think from a spectator point of view this election will be more interesting than most because there is the potential for such variability rather than an overall swing.

    Anyone else think that Shorten is looking less serious this week? More smiles.

  42. That’s right: I don’t believe an LNP win is even the *second*-most likely outcome.

    In a two horse race I have it third. 🙂

  43. jenauthor @ #832 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:33 pm

    GG – I take the deliberate shit-stirrer posts for what they are.

    Nasties like nath are here for a purpose … not to actually contribute … but to niggle from the sidelines and promote uncertainty … and most of all get a reaction so they can go back to their caves and giggle to themselves.

    I get that and can happily ignore such noise.

    Those who actually look at the polling (as is the reason for being here) and discuss issues related to that polling … maybe discussing why one might think a poll has ‘reacted’ in a certain way is what I am here for.

    Yes I am a staunch Laborite but I, for one, don’t deny others’ rights to say thing that I regard as ignorant/crazy/deliberately corrosive or inflammatory. But by the same token, I don’t feel the need to pay them any credence.

    Agree.

    But, I block those I think are a waste of time and my life is so much better on PB.

    I don’t have a problem with those that argue an alternative point of view without rancour.

  44. but right now it’s line ball according to most polling

    No, Rex it is not “line ball” right now. 51.x is a comfortable win except in exceptional circumstances.
    A minority government is indeed a possibility. A small one.

  45. CC

    We hear all the time how important the ground game is. Clive Palmer has set about proving it with his advertising campaign.

    Disendorsed candidates mean reallocation of resources to a contest because suddenly a seat is not being contested. Melbourne is an excellent example of this.

    Disendorsed candidates will see a massive fall in the primary vote for the party that person belongs to. Unless of course the voters are on board with the views the candidate expressed.

  46. “I don’t have a problem with those that argue an alternative point of view without rancour.”

    Quite agree GG.

  48. I think Morris flight to Perth for an hour and then back to Sydney, is a sign of panic. He can’t trust any of his ministers as in his eyes he is the only one who can save the election. There polls must be bad

  49. Re Boothby – its so in the bag that Scomo only stays an hour in Perth with 4-5 marginals and then rushes to SA!!!

  50. A bit of hero worship from Jacqui Maley.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/it-took-john-howard-just-one-minute-to-deliver-the-campaign-s-most-potent-attack-on-bill-shorten-20190513-p51mvs.html

    “I detect in the community a lot of growing suspicion that Bill Shorten is after your savings,” said the former prime minister, who was there to support the local member and his “friend of 30 years”, Tony Abbott.

    “They don’t want it taken away through taxes by Mr Shorten.”

    Then Howard appealed to the voters of Warringah, on Sydney’s northern beaches.

    “They’re not the big end of town. I mean, that is an insult to every successful small businessman who has worked hard accumulated a bit and wants to leave it to his kids,” Mr Howard said. “I mean that’s what this country is all about!”

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