Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.
Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.
Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:
Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.
Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.
Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.
Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.
There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.
I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:
As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.
In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.
UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.
The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.
Most of the undecideds will be young peopl. They gonna vote for scummo? I wonder if a sizeable portion are not sure whether to vote labor or green
Late Riser
Essential 52 to Labor
Thanks
Re polls, with a typical sample size of about 2,000, the standard deviation in a 2PP result would be a bit over 1%.
About 2/3 of polls would be expected to fall within one standard deviation, about 95% within 2.
Given that the results are rounded to the nearest percentage points, jumps of 1% either way would be frequent. If the underlying value was 51, you would expect maybe
about 40% of polls would show 51 (i.e. 50.5 to 51.5)
about 20% would show 50 (ie 49.5-50.5) and 20% 52
about 10% each of 53 (ie 52.5-53.5) and about 10% would show 49.
Rogues beyond 53 or 49 would be very uncommon.
We would expect polls to jump around. They aren’t.
I was fooled by Goll’s 52/48 Ipsos guess as well. Perhaps when a poll result is thought to be imminent, as people have been saying about Ipsos today, it would help a lot if those playing the guessing game could make it clear that is what they are doing.
Slimey says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 3:13 pm
Why spend a day campaigning on something that will be no matter who wins?
Some of the messages in the “Change the Rules” fortune cookies being distributed.
Which seat was Morrison visiting in Perth?
The Coalition will likely win 1 or 2 seats but lose a number more. I think around 78-80 seats will be about right for Labor.
A11
Triple J Hack with Tom Tilley is looking at the 5 marginals they say will be decided by the young vote. Forde and Petrie are two I remember being mentioned.
For the LNP to retain those rural areas they have to rely on the strong economy narrative. We know from the Marriage Equality Survey they have lost the culture war narrative
Edit: To offset losses in city areas
Oops realised my mistake, does the media know what a hard question is to ask the PM?
If Labor forms government next week, I wonder if one of their first achievements, seemingly without effort is to rehabilitate the ABC as a independent public broadcaster.
Asking ministers hard questions, pursuing stories and giving the opposition coverage.
Perhaps I am too cynical.
Peter FitzSimons
@Peter_Fitz
Morrison was in Cowan – mainly to get on the WA news and play with PB minds!
Apparently, Morrison has promised to build every new house by himself because there is no one else capable.
https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/1127759233670205440
nath @ #797 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:13 pm
If you could spell properly I might take you more seriously.
Steve777 @ #853 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:46 pm
With that size sample, standard deviation would be a bit over 2%. Carry on from there.
Steve777 says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:46 pm
Re polls, with a typical sample size of about 2,000, the standard deviation in a 2PP result would be a bit over 1%.
About 2/3 of polls would be expected to fall within one standard deviation, about 95% within 2.
Given that the results are rounded to the nearest percentage points, jumps of 1% either way would be frequent. If the underlying value was 51, you would expect maybe
about 40% of polls would show 51 (i.e. 50.5 to 51.5)
about 20% would show 50 (ie 49.5-50.5) and 20% 52
about 10% each of 53 (ie 52.5-53.5) and about 10% would show 49.
Rogues beyond 53 or 49 would be very uncommon.
We would expect polls to jump around. They aren’t.
Exactly
https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/gregor-mendel-fake-data/
A reminder Benjamin Law is hosting The Drum tonight.
Will be interesting to see how he handles an election Drum.
I am penciling in for Labor to win 82 seats on election day, with at least six on the cross-bench.
Just collected a piece of Labor election material from the letter box and nearly threw it into the nearby recycling bin without reading. Reason? It is black and yellow and the yellow is so close to the UAP material infesting my mail box that I at first assumed it was from Clive. Had the bin been two paces closer I would never have glanced at it. Seems an unfortunate choice of colour, or am I just being oversensitive?
First question on the Drum is What is the Promise of Australia?
Bennelong Lurker
It might have been intended for people that read black and yellow junk mail if you get my drift.
In a surprise to nobody, Foxtel is losing money hand over fist. In looking at potential opportunities to cut costs, they could start by ‘boning’ clowns like the congaline of turn-offs on Sky After Dark
“The ASX announcement revealed that Foxtel’s lost, excluding a $120 million income tax benefit, $417 million in the 2018 calendar year.
The company highlighted other potential opportunities to cut costs including reducing marketing spending and headcount reductions at ad-selling unit MCN.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/foxtel-signals-price-hike-cuts-to-non-marquee-sports-after-417m-loss-20190513-p51msx.html
Greens stuff it up again for progressive forces on the environment.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1127844463005405184
Lateriser, put me down for 52-48 for essential.
Re polls, Newspoll pushed as far as they could with preferences and still maintain credibility.
I doubt they or News Ltd, wouldn’t release more than one or two completed national polls, but I suspect they have been clever with seat polls not just in the release but selection.
Morrison and the Howard leftovers are behaving just as you would expect a team, ravaged by self-inflicted wounds and directless leadership, are patting themselves for running so close in a race they’d never expected to win.
Emphasised by the exodus of many of their frontbench and the blatant dishonesty in leadership disagreement, the LNP have isolated the hapless Morrison to take the full barrage of blame for a raggity, disheveled five and something years of disinformation and nepotism on scale not previously seen in the two hundred odd years of white dominance and discrimination of all descriptions.
Australia will have a new government offering chances not seen since the drop-in petrol station owner’s son fell into a leadership void in the LNP at a time when Australia and the world were to experience growth and riches unparalleled in recorded history.
Added to Howard’s good fortune and perceived success was the relatively late adaptation of the GST in Australia, completely negating financial pressure on the government and allowing the LNP to spruik ths now debunked ‘best economic managers’ myth perpetrated with the help a fawning media. The LNP have dined out on this myth for a long time.
Shorten and Labor will win on Saturday despite the minefield of obstacles stacked against them.
The winning margin is really of little importance and of little significance when compared to the task ahead of undoing the largesse dolloped upon favoured sections of our divided community by what has become a lying deceitful LNP.
The traditional MSM media will be a shadow of itself by the time we vote again, allowing the forward looking youth of 2019 to embrace the excitement of the continuing technological revolution.
Go Australia! Go Labor! Go Shorten!
Scott ( he of no party) in Perth today…
“I am really pleased to be here … My members, my candidates”
My my… where has my party gone?
All Scott seems to be able to say is Labor Labor Labor & my my my
I haven’t seen much Labor advertising in the last 3 weeks, but tonight is a differant story. I’m watching Lego masters on 9 Catchup and have just seen three Labor ad’s in one ad break! I’m in Victoria and one was targeting that no hoper Michael Sukkar. The slogan is “Likes Dutton, Likes Cuttin”. The ad points out his support of cuts to education and health, as well as his support for the Potato Head from Qld.
Would’ve thought if an Ipsos was going to drop it would have by now on Nine News in the eastern states?
Chas Liccardio.
The promise of Australia is to call out BS.
This qualifies.
Edit. My paraphrase. From the Drum.
Yeah can people playing the guessing game please make it explicit that their 2pp numbers are predictive and not breaking info?
Morrisson had to go to Perth himself because the only person with the clout to campaign on behalf of the Libs has stepped down & she will not be giving any comfort to those left behind.
sprocket_
In a surprise to nobody, Foxtel is losing money hand over fist.
Looks like Mal didn’t stuff up the NBN enough to stave off Ruperts competition
Greensborough Growler @ #866 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:09 pm
Poll Bludgers green partisans have never admitted to the greens making a mistake.
And please forgive me, nath, that I haven’t been sitting on my fat arse on PB all day like you seem to have been and so came home just now to see Goll’s post Ipsos 52-48 as the first one in front of me and mistook it for a new poll result.
You see my son was in a car accident last night at 11.30pm. He swerved to avoid a Rock Wallaby which jumped out of the bush on his way to work the Night Shift at his new job. Luckily he only wrote the car off and not himself. So I have spent the best part of the last 24 hours tending to his shock and trying to line up another car for him to buy so that he can still continue going to work, as good jobs are so hard to come by for young men where we live. Most of them are Labour Hire positions that chew you up and spit you out, before moving on to the next piece of meat that the Coalition government forces to accept these jobs or lose their Newstart.
But you keep on having a wank at my expense, as it appears to be an itch you just can’t scratch.
Me? I’ll keep looking after my family as best I can, and keep posting to PB and conversing with all the decent people here.
Which, quite obviously, won’t include you again.
You see, that’s my problem, I have always taken pity on dogs that have been kicked and so I keep thinking you may respond more kindly to my outstretched hand. However, there’s always one junkyard mongrel that will always bite. On PB, that is you, nath.
Anyhoo, enjoy your splendid isolation, thinking you are the funniest thing since Dame Edna. But just know that most people laugh at you, not with you, when you make the sort of pusillanimous allusions like you do about me.
GG and VP
Yeah it’s the Greens that stuffed it says losing Candidate according to the poll.
Edit. Sorry seat polling caveats apply.
It’s Time @6:00PM.
That’s the margin of error (MOE), which is normally taken to be the 95% confidence interval. It is close to 2 standard deviations.
MOE ≈ 1/√S, where S is the sample size, 2.2% if S is 2,000.
C@tmomma hope it will be okay for you and your son. Family is everything.
Fairly small ALP corflute numbers up in Launceston (Bass) until today. Big jump up today, I noticed.
The ALP has been saving up for a last week push, it looks like. When the Coalition are running out of steam (and cash). Turnbull isn’t likely to fund their last few days this time, although Clive might be dropping paper bags off at the back door.
I didn’t think you’d take my ribbing that badly. After all, you call me horrific names all the time.
shiftaling @ #880 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:13 pm
+1
Stay strong C@tmomma. Lots of Labor Hugs.
Why do those clowns on Sky always refer to elections in USA and UK?
They don’t have compulsory attendance at a polling station and everyone is required to vote. We also have preferential voting unlike both UK (first past the post) and USA (winner takes all for each state college votes).
And now that fool, Dennis Shanahan, reckons the more likely outcome is a minority government.
Thought I’d watch a few minutes just to get to know wat I’m missing on a daily basis. Will watch next week just the ALP be victorious.
DPRee @ #887 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:19 pm
Thank you. I’m still in shock too. Though, as I said to him, ‘At least I’m not visiting you in the hospital and you can come home now to your own bed and not have to spend more time in a hospital bed. Cars, well, you can just buy another one, but you can’t buy your health back.’
Nath is a Bourbon- forgets nothing and learns nothing.
No Ipsos tonight?
Upnorth @ #890 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:21 pm
Thanks, Upnorth. I joked to him, to try and get his spirits up, ‘Thank goodness you’re okay, we need your vote for Labor this week!’ 😆
I expect Ipsos to hold off until close to the election (Wed/Thur), given that they are an infrequent pollster.
All the best for your son c@t!
And keep well C@t and family. I appreciate (most of) your contributions.
Your son writing off a car and the shock involved is a shit thing to happen at the best of times.
GG
Thank you for your counsel.
However this blog is characterised by the fact that a group of self proclaimed gatekeepers and self described “long term PBers” make comments that range from unpleasant to disgraceful to totally incorrect, and silence prevails no matter how outrageous.
Someone has to call them out, and I do so. I now it is unpleasant work but someone has to do it.