A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.
• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.
• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.
• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.
Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.
grim, your optimism has never waned. I think Kim will win. The Labor-positive districts at my end of the seat have been delivering votes for her at pre-poll, and none at all for Porter. Having said that, I will be joining the field campaigns in the tougher parts of my neighbourhood this weekend. I’ll let you know how I go. It will be really interesting to see how the tenor has evolved through the campaign.
I met some sweet-hearted Labor voters today, and others on Wednesday too. They lift the spirits. The working people of the North are with us all the way. I could not be prouder.
Dog’s Breakfast @ #773 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:57 pm
They also planted the head of the Property Council on The Drum tonight to agree with Ellen Fanning’s dissing of Labor. 🙂
They wouldnt know a decent property policy if it smacked them in the head like a brick dropped from a height. They are addicted to the Liberals (a mutual infatuation), and just in it for short term self enrichment.
PCA are not much better.
“Simon² Katich® says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:08 pm
Then your vote will probably expire when the allocation of preferences is still going on. If you can’t choose between a Fraser Anning and a moderate centrist it’s a shame.
Is that right? Wouldnt it be highly likely the vote will still be in the mix at last call.”
Only if a Labor or Green candidate was still in the mix. In most states the sixth senate spot will probably come down to a battle between minor parties.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:06 pm
I can just imagine what the civil war in the WA Liberal Party will be like if they taste defeat next Saturday!
*********
One of the two Liberals is a devout and observant Muslim. He could teach the Catholics a thing or two about hypocrisy.
Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning in Pearce….Sunday afternoon in Stirling….moon-lighting for Melita Markey, who I think is a likely winner against the odds….
Some polling news via the Curious Snail – Queensland perspective. 5 % swing against the LNP which the Courier Mail describes as an “electoral boost”
QUEENSLAND women have become Scott Morrison’s secret weapon as the Coalition’s resurgence of support stems a political bloodletting.
An exclusive The Courier-Mail/YouGov Galaxy poll reveals Coalition support has soared by three points since February to 38 per cent, clinching a 51-49 two-party preferred lead.
And despite Pauline Hanson’s meltdown after the strip club sting engulfing her former Queensland leader Steve Dickson, the controversial One Nation Senator has increased her primary vote by one point, and at 9 per cent, is four points ahead of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
The poll of 848 people across the state on May 8 and 9, shows Labor’s primary vote has slipped 1 per cent to 33 per cent since February, and after three years of Bill Shorten targeting Queensland, the Labor leader has managed to increase his support by just two points since 2016.
The electoral boost for the Coalition, which is still five points below its 2016 result, points to a loss of five LNP seats, although LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat — Flynn — but pick up Herbert………
Forty-one per cent of women intend to vote for the LNP, compared to 35 per cent of men. For Labor supporters, it is similar for men and women — 32 and 24 respectively. However, the results highlight a problem for Mr Morrison and Mr Shorten — that 17 per cent of voters intend to vote for independents. The Greens have increased their primary vote by one point to nine per cent since February. Six per cent of respondents intend to vote for another party or candidate, excluding One Nation and UAP.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/qld-women-behind-resurgence-in-support-for-lnp-ahead-of-polling-day/news-story/413818fdfa8184828ec7e0b16e711d88
LR
Newspoll 52/48
Essential 53/47
Election night 54/46
Final 53/47
Thank you. I tips me lid 🙂
Lol – 5 seat loss but “insiders” #comethefuckon
Fess
Basically no one really knows how the dog (a pug) died and only one person (the owner who promptly buried it) actually saw the body. The owner said it was shot, others say run over. Some say it was found on the road, on a driveway or 40m away under a Sarah Henderson sign.
Is bomber’s daughter going to get up ? I hope so, she seems like a bright, clever young person and as the daughter of bomber she must have inherited some bloody good attributes.
Upnorth….the CM poll looks highly dubious to me. It must be about 40 years since women were more likely than men to prefer the LNP to Labor. This alone suggests the numbers are shonky.
So, basically in Queensland, the 1% Labor have lost has gone to The Greens but Labor are still 2% up on where they were in 2016.
That’ll do. 🙂
Henry says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:21 pm
Is bomber’s daughter going to get up ? I hope so, she seems like a bright, clever young person and as the daughter of bomber she must have inherited some bloody good attributes.
I think so. She is a natural for the role. The seat is inherently difficult, but is winnable in a good election. I think she will be the first Lib-held called for Labor.
51-49 in Queensland is pretty good for the ALP.
Youtube and Facebook- wall to wall positive ALP ads tonite….waited till the other side ran out of steam…very clever.
iom @ #806 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 10:20 pm
So it could have simply gotten run over NEAR a Sarah Henderson sign on the side of the road?
Charting the moods of Bludgerland is kind of interesting. Things seemed to fall into a bit of a hole earlier in the week – strangely enough shortly after the Essential poll where the ALP 2PP went up. The mood seemed to bump along the bottom, with a bit of snitchiness between optimist and “bed wetting” camps, until the DT Ann Shorten atrocity on Wednesday, when Bill Shorten’s authenticity moment made for a major reset- both here on PB and around the country generally. Shorten’s creditable performance on Wednesday night debate kept sentiments positive and the buoyant PB atmosphere has pretty much continued since. It’s also been a kindler gentler place for the last few days. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see one or two more up and down cycles in Bludgerland sentiment before the election. An unexpected 50-50 poll out of the blue would puncture the balloon of optimism and contentment pretty quickly. Hopefully we’ll be on an up cycle about this time next week, with a crescendo next Saturday night.
Courier Mail claiming LNP -5, Labor +2 since the last election is good news for Morrison.
Who are they trying to kid, mundo ?
grimace,
The practicing Muslims have joined with the devout Christians over here to fight the godless Labor Party in some Western Sydney areas! 😆
@Briefly
I’ll see you tomorrow afternoon
Steve777 says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 9:48 pm
“And again I’ve got an ad “Paul Fletcher, Liberal for Bradfield” on PB. Google fail, wrong electorate.”
You think that’s bad Steve – every time I open PollBludger in Google chrome I get George Christensen smirking at me from the top right corner. His electorate is about 1,000km away from mine I believe (thank goodness).
Simon² Katich® says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:08 pm
Yep, if you just voted Labor and Green, your vote would normally remain in the count until the last spot.
One of these is usually in contention for the last spot, so if your vote ultimately expired it would be very late in the count.
Indeed, it’s exactly what BludgerTrack has been saying — and which I’ve been having trouble believing, because I thought it far too strong for Labor.
So, it seems that if I am a complete fuckwit, it is not because I intend to follow the Labor HTV (Lyne this time, if I am not mistaken).
William may have other reasons as to why I qualify as a Complete Whatsermecallit. William?
Thank you.
It seems fairly clear to me that ScoMo is regressing from a One Man Band to just plain-old… One Man. It’s what’s happened so many times in the past. And it’s happening again. The ghost of Lara Bingle, the “Scott’s not a team player” snarks from colleagues, the Cabinet room whispers have all come back to haunt him. They’ve never stopped haunting him. Why won’t those voices stop?
As Joshua fit the battle of Jericho, so ScoMo has put up his own Wall of Sound: a deafening, numbing, Babel-like tower of numbers, uncheckable statistics, pseudo econometric price-points and (as the occasion demands) outright bullshit designed to deaden the brain of even the most diligent journalists (precious few of whom actually exist). And as for the voters… they have no fucking hope.
At first the voters thought that ScoMo was a man who sounded like he knew what he was talking about. Now they’re starting to twig that if he thinks life is all about tax, then he needs to get a life.
It’s starting to wear thin.
Even worse, there is a Sustainable Australia candidate in the seat of Bradfield who has a big sign up in Warringah…
Good work on the news Billbowe – great to see you getting recognition.
BB: ‘Am I a complete fuckwit in doing this?’
____________________________
I don’t know. But all those ALP voters who elected Steve Fielding in 2004 were.
briefly re the CM Poll – I agree. Maybe our leader William may wish to opine. Especially given the Liberals noted “female problem”. Anyway 5% swing against them – I’ll take that .
People keep talking about the presidential campaign Mr Morrison is trying to run, but it’s a big risk: Mr Turnbull ran the line at the Longman by-election last July that it was a test of him against Mr Shorten, and when the LNP lost, that was the beginning of the end for Mr Turnbull. We could see that again. If the government wins of course Mr Morrison will be fine, and he can probably get away with a furniture saving loss too. But if the swing gets going, it could sweep away a swag of Ministers, and even if Mr Morrison’s main potential leadership rivals are all wiped out, he’ll be sitting there as terminally damaged goods: everything he has done over the years will, in the election post-mortems, be reinterpreted to his disadvantage. His ambition, judgement, competence and policy positions will all be put under a microscope, to his disadvantage.
Pedant,
Nice thought to go to sleep with. Thank you. 🙂
Well, did 4 hours letter boxing here in Bean for Katy Gallagher before the rain set in for the day.
A nice walk really, my biggest complaint is the size of the leaflets, why can’t they make them a size that fits into letter boxes easily. They are too wide for the slots and each one has to be folded before posting. Glad I wasn’t letter boxing for Mr Smith, his are almost A3 size. Next election I am going to suggest that all the leaflets should be postcard sized.
Another area to do tomorrow morning, then some pre-polling next week, then rest calls I think
Turnbull got 54 2pp in Qld in 2016 on a nearly 3% swing against him. You would expect Morrison to do better up there. Qld also has the highest proportion of Pentecostals in the Commonwealth if that means anything. Something is wrong with the data from QLD. There is no way the ALP will win the 2pp vote there, and I’d be surprised if they dropped under Turnbull’s figure.
Doesn’t that poll say 51-49 to the LNP? Wouldn’t that make it a 3% swing ?
Wondering if SCOMO will question his faith if his God doesn’t deliver him the Prime Ministership?
CM poll is 51-49 to LNP. I think Bludgertrack is other way round?
Morrison’s theme for Sunday.
Briefly. Stirling would be a tough one to win but how sweet it’s be to finally win it back!
I was out in Hasluck this week with some union guys and he feeling was very positive out there. A very sour looking Ken Wyatt was also a highlight.
yabba says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:24 pm
Donski @ #617 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
I think the industry has moved on since you were a bookies penciller…
You don’t say! There weren’t even calculators in the mid 60’s, you smartarse. I did all of the sums in my head. I suspect that you might not be capable of that.
To say that the on-line bookmakers don’t hedge or lay off to any extent is simply false.
Goodbye.
I work for the biggest bookmaker in the world and we don’t hedge anything.. the only place for a hedge is a garden…
@ nath – as a self proclaimed Queensland hater it may surprise you to know Queenslanders have taken quite a shine to Shorten. Labor may not win the 2PP vote in QLD but it will go close.
Sounds good Martin….I hope we take it. The candidate needs all the support that can be found.
nath @ 10:45 pm
“… Something is wrong with the data from QLD. There is no way the ALP will win the 2pp vote there, and I’d be surprised if they dropped under Turnbull’s figure.”
Well, the ALP won the two-party preferred vote in Queensland at the last state election in November 2017.
Grimace….I will be at the western end…same for you?
Upnorth
says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:51 pm
@ nath – as a self proclaimed Queensland hater it may surprise you to know Queenslanders have taken quite a shine to Shorten. Labor may not win the 2PP vote in QLD but it will go close.
__________________________
hate is a strong word. I’ve known some fine Queenslanders. Although admittedly they had all deserted to Victoria where they could live out their days in some degree of comfort and refinement.
Pedant
says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:53 pm
nath @ 10:45 pm
“… Something is wrong with the data from QLD. There is no way the ALP will win the 2pp vote there, and I’d be surprised if they dropped under Turnbull’s figure.”
Well, the ALP won the two-party preferred vote in Queensland at the last state election in November 2017.
_______________________________
At the Federal level it’s always different. Rudd could only manage 50.44 in 2007 and he was really the only Qld PM we’ve had
People forget that suburban Brisbane is not a bastion of batshittery … the rest of the state, maybe … but if Flynn is seen as the likely loss then Forde, Petrie, (maybe) Bonner and Dickson are also gone.
The bible-basher brigade is far more powerful in NSW than Qld.
Upnorth says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:16 pm
I doubt there is anyone left at the courier mail who can count at high as 100 so any analysis by them of a poll would be suspect.
You truly can’t make this stuff up in the Daily Telegraph (fortunately paywalled so I can’t read it)
THE FINAL WEEK: WHY SCOTT MORRISON IS FEELING UPBEAT
In an exclusive interview, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he will resist pressure to outline a bold agenda in the final week of the election campaign.
“Outline a bold agenda”???? How about outline ANY agenda?
Barney in Saigon @ 10:48 pm
A more appropriate song for Mr Morrison’s launch could be the Connie Francis version of “Who’s Sorry Now?” The lyrics could have been written by Mr Turnbull. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9QEAtcz3o8
See you in a red shirt, grim…excellent 🙂