A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.
• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.
• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.
• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.
Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.
“Am I a complete fuckwit in doing this?”
Well, had you followed the Liberal of National “how to vote”, or One Nation, Palmist or other RWNJ then you would have been, but since it was Labor, no worrie.
I prepolled at King’s Cross (Wentworth and Sydney) yesterday. There was one polite and a bit lonely looking Lib young man (that he might have been of Indian heritage crossed my mind), two there for Phelps (no preferences allocated) and several for Labor covering both Tim Murray (Wentworth) and Tanya P., t shirts and all for Tanya, especially on one very funny and chatty Scottish woman. I was in the area for over an hour, and when I arrived there was a woman from GetUp with their suggestions – three options – which were basically anyone but the Libs, but she’d gone an hour later (after yoga). Anyone else seen GetUp having a physical presence at polling stations?
doyley @ #706 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 8:10 pm
It gave Labor full permission to take off the gloves, and hit back hard.
I will bet they were ready and waiting for just this sort of unprovoked shit flinging from Mordor, and can’t believe their luck that it happened less than a week before Mothers Day.
Rupert & His Rooters can grovel to Labor as much as they like from here. Won’t make any difference. Labor can win without them.
And now everybody knows it.
Labor’s open defiance of Murdoch is enough reason alone to vote for them.
Confessions @ #697 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:54 pm
Maybe he will babble in tongues for us.
I’d like to see that. 🙂
Showing the shoulder chip now, sonar!
Giants will be right over the decades. The AFL has an enormous amount of money
World cup is irrelevant.Buddy Franklin has had a massive impact on the games popularity in Sydney . Cahill was barely a blip in Melbourne. Sydney FC have had world cup players but they’ll get far less people to their final this weekend than the bottom of the ladder swans will tonight
Bushfire Bill @ #744 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:26 pm
B B, I just did exactly that. fuckwits r us.
How’s the eye?
Dave from Wagga
Yep, a working majority is enough. A few extras would be icing on the cake.
Of course a thumping of the Coalies would give us all great satisfaction, and throw a grenade into their inner wars, making their self rehab all the more difficult for them.
But …….. as you say, enough will be an elegant sufficiency if that what happens. And their is no evidence to suggest it won’t happen.
sonar @ #745 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:28 pm
How many Swan players have played in a World Cup?
Come to think of it, how many current Sydney based NRL players have played in a World Cup? That’s right, pretty much bugger all.
I respect what you’ve done though. It takes a lot of courage to out yourself as being a dickhead on a public blog.
“Eight sleeps to Sco-go.”
Scexit? Scomexit? Scumexit?
Ken Wyatt (Hasluck) so confident he’s going to be re-elected he’s helping Palmer and the UAP 🙂 #Auspol #ausvotes
https://twitter.com/tackleberry_82/status/1126813159702970368?s=19
Rocket Rocket @ #734 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:18 pm
Um, she meant again,if her husband wins the election in his own right. Obviously! Well, it was obvious to me, though not, it seems, to you. 😐
Terminator , no I agree. SO glad to have been added to Eden-Monaro and away from the Hume electorate and Anus Taylor.
BB: ‘Am I a complete fuckwit in doing this?’
No. Not for doing that. I did the same.
And again I’ve got an ad “Paul Fletcher, Liberal for Bradfield” on PB. Google fail, wrong electorate.
I agree with the assessment that Scott Morrison is not very bright. Having endured sitting next to Peter Dutton at a dinner many years ago, I can confirm he is not very bright either. I can only imagine the contempt with which Malcolm Turnbull (who is very bright) regards them both. The lack of depth in the LNP front bench is frankly appalling.
I voted in the senate by numbering Labour and Greens in that order 1-12 below the line, stuff the rest.
‘Well, it was obvious to me, though not, it seems, to you.’ Nor me C@t.
I guess I got the wrong impression because she was completely invisible championing anything since becoming first lady.
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 9:26 pm
Only if when voting you think,
No, I’d prefer those to be there and that to be there and …
Otherwise, what’s the problem! 🙂
@DG.& Roger……lol …….
I love it when blow-ins from elsewhere tell someone who is born and bred in western Sydney about how people are here……..carry on though guys….lol………
A little banter about sport and you lose it………..and by the way Dan……….I’ve not denigrated you or attacked you personally but go your hardest………. because it says everything about who you are and the type of person you are…….lol……..for everyone to see…..well done mate.
Howdy grim….I’ll be in Pearce again on Saturday and Sunday. No rest. What do you make of the play so far?
BB: ‘Am I a complete fuckwit in doing this?’
Vote Early, Vote Often and Vote Labor
I assume the official ALP HTV only shows voting 1 to 6 ATL for the Senate.
Of course that’s a perfectly valid vote.
As KB explains, though, it isn’t necessarily making the most use of your vote. Numbering as many as you feel able to is better, because it’s fairly likely that at least some (probably very small) portion of your vote will end up exhausting rather than contributing to determining what happens after your #6. If you care whether, say, Libs or One Nation or an Anning candidate gets up in the last position, then you should keep numbering to help keep the most objectionable out of the Senate.
@ sonar
When Australian Rules footballers learn how to tackle properly the code may become remotely interesting.
My understanding is that GetUp is gearing up to swamp the polling booths on Election Day. And not only in their target seats of Flinders, Menzies, Warringah, Dickson.
BB, one of the reasons for following the HTV card is it makes it easier for the vote counters.
Maybe. But the Swans have had a sizeable and rock solid base for over 2 decades now. These are not fair weather fans like they were in the 80’s and early 90’s.
Both rugby codes lost their way. League first. Now Union. Strange how I do not feel bad about that anymore. It used to make me angry when they dumped one of my favourite teams, then changed the name and colours of my main team. I got angry too at the corporatisation of Rugby. How they made us in the bleachers feel like we were there just to create atmosphere for the VIPs. And then they put up the prices as well.
Soccer/football. WTFK’s. It is a strange game with strange supporters. It really should be bigger than it is…. I suspect everyone knows the quality just isnt there. Yet.
E. G. Theodore @ #11617 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:20 pm
Bravo. Tiberius with a Twitter-feed is a brilliant twist. I still think it’s more like 1972 than 2007.
Master Builders going in hard with Faux Tax and Union Bullying adds tonight.
@Upnorth….My sport is Football.
If people want to follow AFL I get it…..I love the banter……lol
C@tmomma @ #665 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:49 pm
Was $1.80 this morning.
sonar @ #778 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:58 pm
Do you mean soccer?
Palmer’s ads seem to have dropped off tonight. Is it possible that he is running out of money or not paying his advertising bills on time?
PeeBee @ #762 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:49 pm
And that was the point. She was holding forth on what she would be doing going forward if her husband won the election.
I guess we have just adopted the ‘First Lady’/ First Bloke persona from the Americans but I can still remember when a ‘First Lady’ was basically seen on the arm of the PM and that was about it.
briefly says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 9:52 pm
Howdy grim….I’ll be in Pearce again on Saturday and Sunday. No rest. What do you make of the play so far?
********
I’ve decided I’m going to let myself get my hopes up. I’ll be devastated either way if Labor or Kim Travers loose.
On Pearce, Kim will win easily, and I’m starting to think will win on PV.
On the election more generally, it’s been in the bag for Labor for months. The Liberals are broke, divided and policy free. They don’t even have motherhood statements to fall back on.
Even under the best of circumstances the Liberals would have a near impossible battle fighting Labor to their left, Lib lite independents all over the spectrum and the basket of deplorables to their right. They don’t have a hope in hell under current circumstances.
I had a long chat with the two Liberal Party members at work this morning, their minds have turned to speculating about how bad the defeat is going to be and fighting for position in the civil war that will errupt.
“Dog’s Breakfast says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 9:48 pm
I voted in the senate by numbering Labour and Greens in that order 1-12 below the line, stuff the rest.”
Then your vote will probably expire when the allocation of preferences is still going on.
If you can’t choose between a Fraser Anning and a moderate centrist it’s a shame.
citizen @ #777 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 10:01 pm
Could it be that the face of his latest ads was caught out being an intolerant anti abortionist today?
sprocket_ @ #777 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:56 pm
I hope Captain GetUp comes with, his presence is such a fail for anti GetUp forces.
It will be almost incredible if Shorten manages to defeat not only the Liberals and their many echoes and ghosts but also defies, humiliates and defeats Murdoch too.
If this can be done, then Murdoch will know his licence to operate in Australia is in jeopardy. How good it would be if this licence were to be revoked.
citizen says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:01 pm
Palmer’s ads seem to have dropped off tonight. Is it possible that he is running out of money or not paying his advertising bills on time?
********
No, when you buy media part of the cost is insurance so that the ad agency gets paid. If Palmer hadn’t of come good for the money the insurance company would have died him already.
I can just imagine what the civil war in the WA Liberal Party will be like if they taste defeat next Saturday! 😯
@slackboy72….yep Football.
If people are still interested in the dog that was supposedly shot in Corangamite and left in someone’s front yard I offer this
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/pug-dog-shot-dumped-next-to-sign-for-mp-sarah-henderson-in-apollo-bay/news-story/1ca6bf3bdaff2c7f661e51f02924b240
GetUp! rang me and asked if I could help them on election day. I said I would love to but I am already busy helping out some other party, but wished them the best of luck. 🙂
We’ve just had evidence at Mundo’s post at 7.52 pm that it posts under so many sock puppet pseudonyms that it has forgotten who it’s meant to be at any given time.
Is that right? Wouldnt it be highly likely the vote will still be in the mix at last call.
@ Briefly
Are you doing morning or afternoon tomorrow. I can’t do the morning, will be there at 1:30. Won’t be able to make the Sundowner with Albo on Sunday unfortunately.
iom @ #787 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 10:07 pm
It’s the Herald Sun, so all you get is the importuning page.
iom:
The link won’t open, and frankly, if it reports on violence towards a harmless pet I’m glad.
mundo @ #667 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:52 pm
The quote FS is referring to, fyi. 🙂
PeeBee @ 9:56 pm
“BB, one of the reasons for following the HTV card is it makes it easier for the vote counters.”
Not really. In the booths they only ever count Senate “1”s, and thereafter the AEC now uses optical character recognition hardware and software to import preferences from ballot papers into their Senate count system.
“My understanding is that GetUp is gearing up to swamp the polling booths on Election Day. “
GetUp and Labor are calling for volunteers for the last few days including the big day itself. I’ve made a few small donations but I’m not up for door knocking, phone Banking, etc. Hats off to those like Briefly and others here who take it on. Must be hard work.