A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.
• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.
• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.
• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.
Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.
BK @ #683 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 8:15 pm
She was showcased on Channel 9 News tonight and, in an American First Ladyesque style, told the world what causes she will champion as ‘First Lady’ if the Coalition wins the election.
Labor seems to be ramping up TV advertising tonight. Mostly positive but also some attack ads.
Confessions @ #699 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 8:27 pm
Yep. It’s all of the above! If Howard did turn up the obvious question to answer would be how come there’s no Abbott and Turnbull? This way it can at least be presented as choosing nothing, over all. (Not trying to be clever, honest.) Morrison may even spontaneously combust with the solo spinning he’s going to do. But I’ll be looking for Frydenberg. The treasurer has to appear. That’s the future of the Liberals.
@EddyJokovich
That’s six times Greg Jennet has called ALP negative gearing and franking credit changes “a tax hike”. This is totally incorrect, it is not a tax hike. Why does he keep pushing these points direct from Liberal Party talking points? #AUSPOL #AusVotes2019
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-election-plan-risks-the-rise-of-zombie-taxes-20190510-p51m5b.html
Labor is asking Australian voters to endorse a hugely ambitious tax agenda that could be cut to shreds in the next Parliament even if Bill Shorten becomes prime minister.
Labor depends on highly contested policies to raise $160.5 billion in revenue over a decade – and it needs an unpredictable Senate to back the lot.
I would suggest labor is very very aware as to what to expect in this last week from sections of the MSM and the coalition.
That is why labor has over the last few months strengthened its attack at the Murdoch media. It has been a calculated strategy by Shorten and co setting the groundwork for its battle this coming week with the grubs at Newscorp.
That is why the attack this week on Ann Shorten was a huge mis step from the grubs and a huge positive for labor. The water is now muddy. Anything that now hits the front pages of the Murdoch press will be jumped on by labor as another example of the gutter press.
No wonder liberals have been pulling their hair out this week after the Telegraph and Courier Mail went front page with the Shorten attack. Morrison being forced to support Shorten and criticise the attack on Mrs Shorten does not help any future attacks at all.
It would not surprise me if Morrison tries it on this coming week over the RC allegations around Shorten even though nothing was found against him. If that does happen then it will be very clear the Tories are scared shitless.
No matter if they do try. Bill Shorten has some very heavy hitters in his corner including at least one of the Beaconsfield survivors.
It has been very revealing, especially in this last week, how confident labor is with its attacks on Murdoch. I am sure the labor team has all angles covered.
Cheers.
Doyley – I share your confidence nothing but professionalism from Labor for the last 6 years actually. This last week and next has had a while in the making. I also notice that some of the Libs have been backgrounding journos (e.g. Tingle’s article) but very little comes out of Labor’s camp (interesting the stuff about Herbert today though).
CANCU says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:17 pm
Peter Stanton says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:59 pm
“please tell me more about Ryan.. I wold love to see the weasel beaten.”
My anecdotal thoughts.
Area has an increasing demographic of younger working families and students diluting the rich old money in the area. I have seen that Climate change is really biting and I expect the combined ALP/Green Primary vote to exceed 50%, so if preference flows are tight anything could happen. Also some bad blood amongst the Libs locally – rolling Jane Prentice (non achiever but liked by the pensioner coffee brigade) in the preselect by the career politician. ALP QLD state government seem to be governing very well … Let’s see next weekend!
—————————
Some years ago I spent a few days at scrutineering with Jane at a recount. She is almost human. I have clashed with the weasel in previous BCC campaigns. He shows no sign of humanity. I am not surprised that Jane melted away. Nice enough but never much strength there.
Well said Doyley, I absolutely agree with your comments.
Labor appear to have wargamed their tactics quite well in this election.
I have been traveling and unsure if this was posted this morning. Tony Koch ex long term Courier Mail journo calls the Murdoch-racy for what it is.
“About six weeks ago I cancelled my subscription for The Australian newspaper after getting it for more than 30 years. As soon as this election is over, I will do the same with the Courier-Mail.
I worked as a journalist for some 30 years for those papers and loved every minute of it. They were quality newspapers that cared for their employees and cared more for the product – concerned with breaking real news stories that were as accurate and true as could possibly be established.
The Australian in particular was a big-impact paper which regularly set the news agenda for media throughout the country.
But no longer. No editor I worked for would have put up with the biased anti-Labor rubbish that, shamefully, the papers now produce on a daily basis.
If it is not anti-Labor it is anti-Green or, quite ridiculously, anti-ABC.”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/moany-tony-pines-for-olden-times/news-story/686416a430122e1f11ce2bc0eda04a48
Wouldn’t be surprised if Labor has promised the Coalition Mutually Assured Destruction if they try to go the dirt in the last week.
In that sense the Ann Shorten issue was a bit of a test case – Labor will push back hard if the coalition try anything – will they be desperate (and dumb) enough?
“sonar says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:24 pm
@ Rocket Rocket…..people have accepted the Swannies…..not GWS.
GWS are about as western Sydney as Toorak is. GWS are pretty much a joke in my part of Sydney…”
Give it a couple of decades, sonar
Late Riser:
You mention Frydenberg as the future of the Liberals. I was watching the news and looking at Cormann staring at Frydenberg when he was talking about Labor’s costings, the overall impression I had was Cormann is jealous of Frydenberg. I’d thought it was because Cormann wants to be Treasurer, but maybe it’s a future leadership thing.
Also interesting that Labor is ramping up attacks on the Murdochracy. Assume this is pre-emptive discrediting of whatever ‘Dollar Bill ate my ficus’ stories come out next week.
It looks like the DT (Daily Torygraph? Delirium Tremens?) might have pulled off an amazing ‘Double Own Goal’ with Shorten’s Mum story: not only did they manage to humanise Bill, re-energise the campaign, provide the ‘tipping point’ etc., but I reckon they have poisoned the well on whatever sh*t they try to peddle next week: even if the bucket of slime is even vaguely plausible, they have so damaged their own credibility that Labor will be able to brush them off with a “well they would say that, wouldn’t they”.
PS – love, just love, Tanya and Swannie et al coming out in the last 24 hours and unloading a full clip into Newscorpse. We have been waiting for the Party to grow a pair on Rupey and his flying monkeys since 1996 (at least).
Confessions says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:27 pm
Having Howard there would just highlight the absence of the other two more.
In the end it just highlights what Morrison is about.
It’s all about him, he’s the leader, he decides what happens and the rest should follow.
Little concept of team!
yabba says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:24 pm
Donski @ #617 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
I think the industry has moved on since you were a bookies penciller…
You don’t say! There weren’t even calculators in the mid 60’s, you smartarse. I did all of the sums in my head. I suspect that you might not be capable of that.
To say that the on-line bookmakers don’t hedge or lay off to any extent is simply false.
Goodbye.
———————-
Reminds me of an episode when I was at primary school. I had an uncle who was a saddler. During the local racing carnival one year he came down from Perth with a mate who pencilled for a bookie. They called in to see us one night. I was sitting at the kitchen table doing home work that consisted of adding up a long list of 3 digit numbers, The penciller ran his finger down the column and gave me the answer. I was so fascinated by this that I worked for years to be able to do it. I still have a good grasp of mental arithmetic.
The way to deal with a bully is to be in a position to attack. There is no doubt Murdoch is a bully and there is no doubt Labor labor has attacked. Murdoch’s response will be interesting. Will he stay for the fight?
Confessions:
Sidelining the most senior female minister (and a relative moderate) would seem to be a major error by Mr Morrison.
I suspect the explanation is that he’s just not very bright. There aren’t too many previous examples of that amongst previous PMs
Roger @ #712 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:51 pm
Yep. When I left Sydney there was still a large proportion of the population that refused to accept any AFL side in Sydney, despite the fact that they were one of the power teams in the competition.
Sad and pathetic really. Sort of like Brits who’re still living in the glory of their former empire.
I doorknocked in an historically very strong Labor-voting precinct this afternoon. 48 dwellings. 36 responses. 1 x ON voter, will now pref Labor. 1 x Refuser. 1 x Liberal. 1 x ‘not interested’. The rest were all Labor-declaring voters. I appealed for their help to change the government. They willingly affirmed they would vote for change. Brilliant.
E. G. Theodore says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:59 pm
Confessions:
I suspect the explanation is that he’s just not very bright. There aren’t too many previous examples of that amongst previous PMs
——————————-
How bright to you have to be to fall for the garbage that the happy clapper churches pedal? And what does it say about the Liberals that this clown is leader.
Mondo
I accidentally omitted your name in my post to Ven.
If it’s control trolling, then please go away. If you are super anxious, deal with it or seek help. It is always quite unacceptable and in fact quite uncaring for someone to inflict their maladies on others.
All the best, but please, PB has by now been very well apprised of your mindset.
briefly
wow – the undercurrent
it is historically so strange that anyone votes for shadow play that is govt – having morrison boast of financial rectitude and anything else is so funny – but then perhaps liberals have always been bit of sham, and bubble has been inflated for long time – hope it bursts
Sorry, I typed Mundo but it auto corrected.
It’s clear and obvious that the libs Sunday launch will essentially be Scotty doing a town hall. Trump style.
Just him, no one else.
When it’s all done and finished, and the they lose 20 seats the Tories will be wondering how and where it all went wrong.
And Scotty will wear the blame. Delicious.
What is Ken Wyatt up to?
She could well be there with him, but campaign evidence is suggesting the launch will be Scotty, Scotty, and nothing but Scotty.
It speaks volumes about the dearth of talent in the partyroom that the PM has to carry the show by himself.
Much as I detest the Sydney swans, their crowd average is double that of any nrl side in Sydney and more than the broncos too.
Too many schooners for Kenny.
…..”Sad and pathetic really. Sort of like Brits who’re still living in the glory of their former empire.”………
As far as GWS is concerned they are a transplanted team and have absloutely no connection with the history of the area and people know this. Nothing to do with the Brits or empire.
Rugby League and Football have history in western Sydney………”The first football ( soccer ) game in Australia by a registered club was played in Parramatta 132 years ago _ by a club called the Wanderers. The game on August 14, 1880, was organised by the Wanderers against the King’s School’s rugby team and was played at Parramatta Common — now where the Old Kings Oval is situated. AFL have none..
Which makes it even more of an issue. Howard forced to avoid the Liberal campaign launch because his presence only draws attention to those former leaders who aren’t there doesn’t exactly send a message of unity or competence in the current leadership. 🙂
Great stuff, briefly
Shellbell says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:27 pm
We are a bit fair weather.
Bruce is being very effusive about some of the young swans.
Blakey will be a star.
It’s not quite 1983.
It’s not quite 2007.
But it’s enough.
Enough is enough.
sproket
australia doesn’t look very great, just fat and lonely
“sprocket_ says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 9:08 pm
What is Ken Wyatt up to?”
He’s uprooted Clive’s signs? (The stakes look to have dirt on the bottom.)
Cat 827pm
She was showcased on Channel 9 News tonight and, in an American First Ladyesque style, told the world what causes she will champion as ‘First Lady’ if the Coalition wins the election.
Ummm – she already is ‘First Lady’!
Confessions:
I suspect the Dutton crew has dirt on Mr. Morrison’s double-dealing—Tiberius with a Twitter-feed—and will unleash if he gives any prominence to moderates
In my area of Eden-Monaro, blanket corflutes of all sizes for female Lib candidate(can’t pronounce her surname), Sophie Wade for Nats is everywhere in person and I spoke with her yesterday at pre-polling, and Mike Kelly has only recently put up corflutes. Mind you, the odds are well in favour of Mike.
Interesting that my local polling place also has a corflute with Scrott on it. Wonder how many think they can vote for him?
sonar @ #730 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:11 pm
Pretty irrelevant. Perth has no connection with Rugby League but when (not if) Perth gets a side in the NRL, the people of Perth will get behind “their side”, as they’ve done with football, basketball, baseball and a whole host of “imported” sports.
I doubt it has anything to do with whatever the sport is, it’s just a continuation of the pathetic “war” between Sydney and Melbourne.
Oh, and BTW, GWS is not a transplanted side, they’re a genuine start up. The Swans (formerly known as South Melbourne) are the transplanted side.
Is there a time for this launch thing on Sunday / Mother’s Day. What the hell are they / is he thinking?
Anyway, Shorten is on Insiders. Again, impeccable timing. There’s momentum, crescendo, themes and motifs being repeated and expanded on. Tingle gets it. She knows what it’s like when the whole thing is coming together and the chorus is on, and the climax is not far away, and the certainty that it will be good, that you can pull it off is palpable, all that hard work and practice; you can feel it from the audience. They get it; we get it. It’s big.
Sonar, nobody would doubt soccer and league have more of a history in western Sydney.
The reality is the resources and systems that have established the swans as the biggest football club in Sydney and has seen an explosion in participation was effectively doubled with the creation of the giants. A large number of people there will hate the game to the grave but it’s not them that matter
Also, Ironically it is the swans that are the transplanted team. The giants were created in sydney
The UAP is a Lib clone. Wyatt is toting their gear for them and will doubtless help arrange the display in the same way the Libs help ON and the Cories at pre-polls elsewhere in Perth. They may not be trading prefs, but the Lib-clones cluster together and encourage each other.
For someone with such (he blushingly concedes) an incredibly sophisticated view on politics and an almost savant-like appreciation of the ebbing tides and flows out there in Voterland, I have to admit that where it come to yer actual, like, voting (especially regarding the Senate), I just go by the Labor How-To-Vote, fill it out square by square, no more, no less, and that’s that.
Am I a complete fuckwit in doing this?
@DG…nah mate totally transplanted and a plastic team….no local history…..no local player history…..they’re not called the Manuka Midgets for nothing……lol
How many GWS players have played at a World Cup…?…oh wait………lol
I’ve just realised that my electorate of Bean in southern Canberra also includes Norfolk Island.
It will be interesting to see how the islanders vote. I’m not sure if this is their first Federal election since their independent territory status was revoked.
https://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/act/bean.htm
Based on past experiences with overly/very/fucked up religious folk I think ScoMo believes whatever happens is Gods will. Either way. Just as have many armies marched on the same premise.
Eight sleeps to Sco-go.
Sorry BB, my fuckwittery sensor has been overloaded for some weeks now and blown a fuse. Completely out of action.
Dogs Dr Kelly wont lose and that’s a good thing