A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.
• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.
• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.
• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.
Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.
It’s a yellow dog – and probably wants us to think it’s loaded.
sonar
Of course! It was Palmer I didn’t spot. Ta
Not forgetting of course The Abbott Crab.
I hope Scotty in the Rowe cartoon has a bag to pick up the mess his dog Clive has left 😀
Laocoon,
Thanks for those pre-poll numbers.
I’ve had a chance now to think about them but unfortunately I can’t tease any insight from them. The three most populous states share the 10 most populous pre-polls. Of the 10, 3 are close (less than 1%), 3 are safe (greater than 10%) and 4 in between. And each of the three states has one close and one safe. Looking at parties doesn’t help either. Perhaps it’s just a general spread across the entire Australian voting population with a little randomness selecting the top 10.
But thanks for digging out the numbers! The food for thought was much appreciated.
On the Senate voting.
If Labor form Government, then Lab/Lib will give a majority in the Senate irrespective of preferences from Labor voters.
A larger crossbench after that represents more options in finding a path to get legislation through if the Libs try to block it.
I got to 7 on my Senate ballot, SA, and stopped because all I had left were the RWFWs, including the Liberals, considering the influence the Right has had recently from within.
I found all remaining equally repugnant and had no wish to contribute to any of them being elected.
Anyway, that was my thought process! 🙂
poroti
Abbott the crab seems to be diminishing, still there but smaller & smaller.
I think as per KB’s advice, you stop preferencing at the point where you literally think that there is nothing to separate the remaining candidates; they’re all equally objectionable to you. I made one of the Liberals’ Senate team my last preference [no. 44] as in the highly unlikely event that my preferences don’t elect someone higher on the ticket and elected him or her, it would be a better outcome from my POV than having a One Nation, Fraser Anning, Rise up Australia or Yellow Vest [rebranded Australian Liberty Alliance] Senator elected.
MH
I think it is Bowen.
mikehilliard
I look forward to what Rowe draws if the ‘crab’ is cooked next week.
mick Quinlivan says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:09 pm
cannot prove any thing but have a suspicion that the opinion polls are understating labor’s position…….. as there seem to be many seats alp cannot win under threat
—————————
My very unscientific analysis of elections over the last 7 to 8 years is that there is usually a strong swing to labor in the last week. NSW was the exception but that can be explained by the dirt thrown in the last week. I think that during the last week unengaged voters focus and the superior ALP field campaign bears fruit. Flogging HTVs at prepoll today I noted that the uglies where becoming angry and irritable. They are starting to feel the vibe. This prepoll is in the inner north of Brisbane and is advertised as a prepoll for Brisbane, Lillee, Petrie and Dickson. Three liberal held seats and one labor with a retiring member. The uglies are showing clear signs of panic.
Red13
I think Bowen is Shorten’s dog, after today for good reason. 🙂
mick Quinlivan says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:09 pm
cannot prove any thing but have a suspicion that the opinion polls are understating labor’s position…….. as there seem to be many seats alp cannot win under threat
—————————
My very unscientific analysis of elections over the last 7 to 8 years is that there is usually a strong swing to labor in the last week. NSW was the exception but that can be explained by the dirt thrown in the last week. I think that during the last week unengaged voters focus and the superior ALP field campaign bears fruit. Flogging HTVs at prepoll today I noted that the uglies where becoming angry and irritable. They are starting to feel the vibe. This prepoll is in the inner north of Brisbane and is advertised as a prepoll for Brisbane, Lillee, Petrie and Dickson. Three liberal held seats and one labor with a retiring member. The uglies are showing clear signs of panic.
It looks like Scott is about to step in ‘it’ as soon as he moves. 🙂
Interestingly low number on Sportsbet:
Both Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton fail to get elected at the Federal Election $1.70
Re: election night. .. I plan on running down the street with my underpants on my head (common method of Greens celebration) if ALP wins majority and Greens (or ALP) take Ryan. Recent voting mood suggests I best wear a pair of my best on election night!
poroti says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:45 pm
The cartoonist fraternity will probably hold a wake if Abbott goes down.
He’s given them so much!
max says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:44 pm
I think as per KB’s advice, you stop preferencing at the point where you literally think that there is nothing to separate the remaining candidates; they’re all equally objectionable to you. I made one of the Liberals’ Senate team my last preference [no. 44] as in the highly unlikely event that my preferences don’t elect someone higher on the ticket and elected him or her, it would be a better outcome from my POV than having a One Nation, Fraser Anning, Rise up Australia or Yellow Vest [rebranded Australian Liberty Alliance] Senator elected.
——————————————-
If I did that I could not get past 3 or 4.
ICanCU @ #666 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 5:49 pm
It’d be worthwhile investing in a brand new pair just for that purpose, and never wearing them again.
‘Are you just anxious, or are you a genuine concern troll.’
Leave him/her alone fer crisakes.
Some here put up with the rose coloured glasses green cordial sippers and others put up with the nervous nellies….live and let live….we all cope with the stress of elections in our own way…..
C@tmomma @ #663 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 5:49 pm
Surely if Dutton was at risk of losing his seat he wouldn’t be campaigning in another electorate like he was yesterday. Abbott hasn’t left Warringah which tells you how much he feels under pressure.
Barney somewhere in Asia 🙂
So true RE Abbott.
But the cross bench will be a treasure trove for Rowe. So many freaks.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:48 pm
The important element is the direction of movement, in this case it’s behind him, so he’s being forced
back!
Peter Stanton:
My very unscientific analysis of elections over the last 7 to 8 years is that there is usually a strong swing to labor in the last week. NSW was the exception but that can be explained by the dirt thrown in the last week
———————-
You reckon dirt won’t get thrown in this next week coming? Last roll of the dice for Mordor – I’m expecting that it could get very ugly
Barney in Saigon
When Howard ‘retired’ I thought the cartoonists would fraternity would be utterly devastated but yep, along came Tones to give them another ‘Golden Age’ .
er no Barney, it’s to his right.
I won’t be shocked if Murdoch reruns the rape allegations against Shorten, or there’s some other smear against him or Chloe Shorten or some other member of his family!
Labor would be prepared for anything like that!
ICanCU says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:49 pm
Re: election night. .. I plan on running down the street with my underpants on my head (common method of Greens celebration) if ALP wins majority and Greens (or ALP) take Ryan. Recent voting mood suggests I best wear a pair of my best on election night!
———————-
I am confident about the Labor win but please tell me more about Ryan.. I wold love to see the weasel beaten.
Barney is back in Saigon!
Confessions @ #668 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:52 pm
So, out of the $1.70 it’s +1c for Abbott and +69c for Dutton? 😆
max says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:55 pm
Peter Stanton:
My very unscientific analysis of elections over the last 7 to 8 years is that there is usually a strong swing to labor in the last week. NSW was the exception but that can be explained by the dirt thrown in the last week
———————-
You reckon dirt won’t get thrown in this next week coming? Last roll of the dice for Mordor – I’m expecting that it could get very ugly
——————————
I have no doubt that the grub’s lackeys will throw some dirt next week. However, so much dirt has been thrown that no more will stick.
It will be ugly. As a neighbour in the street where I lived as a kid would say, “ugly as an ‘atful of arseholes”.
Terribly small crowd at the Sydney vs Essendon ALF game.
Peter Stanton @ #677 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:59 pm
Prentice exited without a whimper so I doubt the weasel is in any trouble in Ryan. But ICanCU, just in case, can I recommend practising your yodelling. It’s a quiet neck of the nation, you might turn a few heads. 🙂
In his Ch10 news report PvO says not a single former Liberal PM will be at the launch on Sunday.
– Not Howard.
– Not Abbott.
– Not Turnbull.
Are the Libs that on the nose that their own former leaders don’t want to be associated with the party’s penultimate campaign push?
Confessions
Will Morrison showcase his wife then?
Ryan looks plausible because Maiwar (formerly Indooroopilly-ish) went Green and Jane Prentice was dumped. Not sure if Jane’s friends would really vote Green or Labor but things feel really hunkered down in Brisneyland. Corflutes are few and far between in my neck of the woods – a fairly blue stretch of Moreton.
Re numbering ballots, that’s easy. Labor 1, Green 2. Number other acceptable candidates, if any, 3, 4, etc. Then donkey vote those you don’t know. Vote Liberal N, where N is the number of candidates or groups. Number other RWNJs N-1, N-2, etc.
Your numbers meet in the middle. Simples!
Peter Stanton says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 7:59 pm
“please tell me more about Ryan.. I wold love to see the weasel beaten.”
My anecdotal thoughts.
Area has an increasing demographic of younger working families and students diluting the rich old money in the area. I have seen that Climate change is really biting and I expect the combined ALP/Green Primary vote to exceed 50%, so if preference flows are tight anything could happen. Also some bad blood amongst the Libs locally – rolling Jane Prentice (non achiever but liked by the pensioner coffee brigade) in the preselect by the career politician. ALP QLD state government seem to be governing very well … Let’s see next weekend!
BK
This is a problem for the AFL. Sydney were terrible 1990-1994. Barassi came and restored a bit of pride and got things going and from 1996 they have missed the finals I think three times. But what happens when the music stops? I was having similar thoughts about GWS who have been flying the last few years after a very tough start – what happens when they have to rebuild?
“Terribly small crowd at the Sydney vs Essendon ALF game.”
Bottom team hosting 11th in Sydney and there’s probably high 25 to 30k there. Hardly terrible by Sydney sporting standards surely?
Scrott will be in heaven. He can go the full Televangelist on them , a ‘congregation’ to fire up and he the Master Pastor at the service.
“Terribly small crowd at the Sydney vs Essendon ALF game.”
If the game’s being played in Sydney, we mostly don’t do big crowds at football. Also it’s cold and windy (we call 13° cold).
Confessions @ #684 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 8:14 pm
Maybe a little of that, but if our PM is to be believed this is a contest between himself and the opposition leader, and you don’t want to dilute that message. (No idea if that’s the case of course, but it fits what I’m seeing and hearing and reading.)
We only go when Swannies are winning
Donski @ #617 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
You don’t say! There weren’t even calculators in the mid 60’s, you smartarse. I did all of the sums in my head. I suspect that you might not be capable of that.
To say that the on-line bookmakers don’t hedge or lay off to any extent is simply false.
Goodbye.
BK:
I can’t think of another Liberal woman who can provide that gender balance.
JBishop: gone.
Kelly O’Dwyer: gone
Julia Banks: gone
Melissa Price: in a cave somewhere
Michelle Landry: unpalatable to voters
Michaelia Cash: see Michelle Landry
Marise Payne: see Melissa Price
Who else is there? And that’s assuming the Liberals even want to appear as if they welcome women voters and members. I reckon Scotty will embrace his inner preacher and go the full Billy Graham on Sunday.
@ Rocket Rocket…..people have accepted the Swannies…..not GWS.
GWS are about as western Sydney as Toorak is. GWS are pretty much a joke in my part of Sydney…
We are a bit fair weather.
Bruce is being very effusive about some of the young swans.
Late Riser:
It just adds to the overall perception of disunity in the party. Abbott and Turnbull obviously would find it challenging to turn up and appear all happy as Larry. But Howard isn’t even going to be there.