Election minus eight days

A tight race in Cowper, mixed messages from Reid, and an intriguing surge of Labor enthusiasm about Leichhardt.

A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:

• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.

• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.

• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.

• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.

Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

961 comments on “Election minus eight days”

Comments Page 13 of 20
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  4. Blobbit, if you only want your vote to go to the ALP and the Greens, just vote for all the Labor and Greens candidates below the line, as there are 12 candidates running between the two.

  5. Just drove past our prepoll place dropping OH off for a work function and saw state Labor MP Peter Watson handing out HTV cards.

  11. Blobbit – you are not thinking straight if you only give preferences to ALP and Greens for WA Senate. You should be ensuring you at least put preferences for any party that has a chance of being elected eg Nationals, Liberal, UAP, ON, even Anning. That way you can help ensure that right wing nutters are kept out.

  12. Nath: “In 2016 I was too busy to worry about politics. I was all about those dollars.”

    And now you’re “all about that Bass (rlectorate)?”

  13. Anton, “the public pollsters are herding like crazy around Newspoll”.
    ‘Herding’ is a good term for opinion polling, not unlike political commentary – fear of being the odd one out.

  14. Spence @ #610 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    Blobbit – you are not thinking straight if you only give preferences to ALP and Greens for WA Senate. You should be ensuring you at least put preferences for any party that has a chance of being elected eg Nationals, Liberal, UAP, ON, even Anning. That way you can help ensure that right wing nutters are kept out.

    Hmmm, you must use an interesting definition of right wing nutters.

  15. Ch 7 (Prime in Canberra) just had Labor ad including video of Morrison giving Turnbull the hug of death.

    Labor seems to be ramping up advertising this evening.

  17. Yabba says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 4:43 pm
    Donski @ #423 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 3:09 pm

    Bookies/Tab odds are set to make sure that the bookie makes a profit no matter which ‘runner’ wins.

    It is amazing the amount of so called betting knowledge that supposes emanates from this forum.
    ………………………………

    1.15 Labour does seem short, but it is to win the most seats, not get a majority .

    Unfortunately for you, this is not true. All of the Tabs’/Betting shops’ markets are for ‘Sworn in Government’. It is probably a good idea to know what the market actually is about, before pontificating.

    If you think that the bookies ‘traders’ do not have a continuous knowledge, via computer system, of the state of their book, continuously updated on a bet by bet basis, with suggested, and almost always accepted, suggestions on price movements, I have an Adani mine to sell you.

    I have the API’s for four different Tabs/bookies on this computer, and my programs automatically interact with their systems directly, without intervention from me. Most of the activity is with Betfair, because the prices are better, but occasionally arbitrage opportunities with the others’ ‘fixed price’ offerings present themselves. I understand wagering mathematics absolutely. I was a bookie’s penciller while I was at Uni, way back.

    I think the industry has moved on since you were a bookies penciller… To think that Bookies can square off their positions to balance their book with rival firms is a falacy. Ladbrokes would be stuck with their bet, they could hedge some of the bet, but at the time of the bet waged they were the best price, by hedging wit another firm at a worse price it just makes their terms of trade at a lower liability look worse.Computer systems off course will show how the book looks, and it is updated bet by bet, and trader worth their salt knows how to balance a book it doesn’t need a bot to advise to push out the price of the other party etc. Firms have to sometimes have one sided books and take it on the chin, but if you think how much money they would have made on Brexit and Trumps win they won’t be losing any sleep over this one

  20. It’s Time says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 6:51 pm

    Spence @ #610 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    Blobbit – you are not thinking straight if you only give preferences to ALP and Greens for WA Senate. You should be ensuring you at least put preferences for any party that has a chance of being elected eg Nationals, Liberal, UAP, ON, even Anning. That way you can help ensure that right wing nutters are kept out.

    Hmmm, you must use an interesting definition of right wing nutters.

    It’s Time – some of the right wing nutters are listed – the point is to vote for centrist and even Nationals and Liberal ahead of these to help stop ON, Anning at least and probably Palmer UAP getting seats and legitimacy.

  21. Sohar:

    ‘Herding’ is apparently a thing in polling analysis. From William:

    One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

    Where a pollster like Ipsos consistently shows the Greens with a 3% to 4% swing since the last election that no one else can see, the temptation to revisit the methodology with a specific view to bashing them back down must be extremely strong — and it’s actually to their credit that they have very clearly resisted it.

  22. Late Riser can you put me down 52-48 to the ALP for Newspoll? I don’t think the Murdoch press can polish the Turds much more.

  23. BTW, Bluey is outraged that occies don’t get a vote.

    Bluey has to face the unpalatable truth that with 8 tentacles (yes, count ’em: 8), each one grasping the stubby pencil, the number of phoney ballot papers he can fill out while attending the cardboard cubicle is the stuff of legend.

    This is why octopi are not entitled to vote. It’s simple bio-politics. Nothing personal.

  24. FWIW in the HoR I put the Nationals ahead of the Liberals and the Liberals ahead of Clive, the Great Australian Party (or whatever it is), Cullerton’s mob, the christian conservatives, and PHON.

  25. E. G. Theodore @ #581 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:12 pm

    Ca@Momma:

    [for speaker, assuming ALP form government] Anthony Byrne is my pick

    Do they want to move him from the Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, given his now extensive experience thereon?

    They could easily replace him with Peter Khalil.

  26. Spence

    Surely you achieve a better result by making sure your vote never gets to them, by not putting any numbers next to their boxes (or names) on the Senate paper?

  27. Spence @ #619 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:59 pm

    It’s Time says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 6:51 pm

    Spence @ #610 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    Blobbit – you are not thinking straight if you only give preferences to ALP and Greens for WA Senate. You should be ensuring you at least put preferences for any party that has a chance of being elected eg Nationals, Liberal, UAP, ON, even Anning. That way you can help ensure that right wing nutters are kept out.

    Hmmm, you must use an interesting definition of right wing nutters.

    It’s Time – some of the right wing nutters are listed – the point is to vote for centrist and even Nationals and Liberal ahead of these to help stop ON, Anning at least and probably Palmer UAP getting seats and legitimacy.

    Your point was very poorly expressed in your first post. You seemed to be advocating for voting even for Anning.

  28. Free kick for Frydenberg on the project panel here

    Sure, but he’s being very amiable, not really as if he’s fighting an election at all. While the Libs do need to put a human face on their operation I’d actually lean toward it being Frydenberg auditioning for being LOTO post-election.

    He basically passed on the opportunity to put out some lines against Bowen and the ALP.

  29. Watching Cormann and Frydenberg on ABC news I’m reminded of Howard and Costello fulminating back in 2007 about Labor’s policy costings.

  30. I have a prediction to make, apropos the statement by Laura Tingle that Tony Abbott is gawn. He will be replaced at the next election by federal Liberal Party Director, and former Chief of Staff to Abbott, Andrew Hirst. He’s been thoroughly blooded and it will be his next task to get the seat of Warringah back from Zali Steggall.

  31. Gary Johns in the firing line under a Labor government.

    Labor signals it may sideline charities watchdog chief and slash business-class travel

    Gary Johns has racked up more than $64,000 in flights between November 2017 and July 2018
    Lisa Martin
    @LMARTI
    Fri 10 May 2019 18.22 AEST

    The head of the charities watchdog could find himself sidelined, and his taxpayer funded business-class travel between Melbourne and Brisbane curtailed, if Labor wins the next election.

    The Turnbull government appointed longtime anti-charity campaigner Gary Johns as the head of the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission in 2017.

    Andrew Leigh, who is likely to have ministerial responsibility for the charity sector under a Shorten government, won’t have the power to sack Johns as commissioner because it is a statutory five-year term. But Leigh is unimpressed by Johns’s performance in the role.

    “Putting Gary Johns in charge of the charities commission is like putting Ned Kelly in front of bank security or Bronwyn Bishop in charge of transport for politicians,” Leigh told Guardian Australia.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/10/labor-signals-it-may-sideline-charities-watchdog-chief-and-slash-business-class-travel

  32. Confessions @ #620 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    Sohar:

    ‘Herding’ is apparently a thing in polling analysis. From William:

    One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

    Where a pollster like Ipsos consistently shows the Greens with a 3% to 4% swing since the last election that no one else can see, the temptation to revisit the methodology with a specific view to bashing them back down must be extremely strong — and it’s actually to their credit that they have very clearly resisted it.

    Yeah, but he’s saying it’s not happening. Being out of the pack and getting the closest figure to the election poll would be even more desirable for a pollster.

  34. L.Tingle reporting.

    “Tectonic shift in the debate as election nears”

    There was a sense within the Coalition that its campaign had run out of steam, even before the official ‘launch’ of the campaign in Melbourne on Sunday.

    On the ground around the country, Coalition assessments have turned much blacker in the past week: Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah. The NSW seats of Gilmore and Reid seem lost, and the Coalition may not even pick up Lindsay from Labor.

    Cowper may be lost to Rob Oakeshott, and Farrer, despite Sussan Ley’s 20 per cent margin, to a local mayor.Senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats.

  35. cannot prove any thing but have a suspicion that the opinion polls are understating labor’s position…….. as there seem to be many seats alp cannot win under threat

  37. Sportsbet – Zali Steggal now favourite in Warringah, on the other hand Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth has drifted back to 7.00. Some money for the Libs too in Reid, by the looks, probably based on the supposed Liberal internal polling mentioned by William above that they’re ahead in the seat 51-49.
    Better news for Labor – Libs in Robertson have gone from 2.10 to 2.30.
    Of course the betting agencies don’t always get it right, but in the absence of decent polling, Sportsbet and Ladbrokes will have to do as substitutes for now.

  38. “Blobbit – you are not thinking straight if you only give preferences to ALP and Greens for WA Senate. ”

    No, I want to make sure that I avoid, as much as possible, getting any of the nutters elected. So, advice as to what the most effective way is – above the line, below the line, number all, number some etc

  39. zoomster
    Kevin Bonham has an interesting article on his blog about how to vote strategically for the Senate. You may be interested.
    It got a bit too complicated toward the end for me, but the gist seems to be to number as far as you can without throwing up if you can.

  40. zoomster and It’s time. Best to Read Kevin Bonham articles on smart Senate voting.

    I know it seems good to say “I didn’t vote for any of the nutter parties in the Senate”. And some people include the LNP in their don’t vote for the bastards list.

    Giving groups a very low preference is actually voting against them, not voting for them. For example voting for Lib and Nat ahead of more right or nuttier groups means that if the last seat is between Lib or Nat and ON, Anning, Cullerton or Palmer etc then your preference will help keep the nutters out and avoid putting one of them and their mates on the public payroll.

    Not easy working out a least preferred list of nutter groups but it makes sense with preferential proportional voting in the Senate.

  42. Ven @6.39pm

    Been watching your comments over past few days.

    Your negativity and continual talking down of Labor’s chances are becoming quite repetitive. Are you just anxious, or are you a genuine concern troll.

    Either way, I suspect many here have now clearly got your message, so no more warnings are needed.

    Thanks

  43. It got a bit too complicated toward the end for me, but the gist seems to be to number as far as you can without throwing up if you can.

    That’s what I did. I got to 6 above the line and then it all started getting repulsive and I found I couldn’t get to placing a 7 in any of the boxes.

  50. Thanks for the pointer to Kevin’s voting guide in the senate.

    Looks like it’s number as far as I can stand.

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