Election minus eight days

A tight race in Cowper, mixed messages from Reid, and an intriguing surge of Labor enthusiasm about Leichhardt.

A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:

• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.

• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.

• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.

• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.

Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

961 comments on “Election minus eight days”

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  1. Diogenes

    I think they will scale it back to two weeks next time to cause less of a fuss, then one week after that. And yes it very resource-intense across the whole country. I think Rob Oakeshott in Cowper has people everywhere doing this but some independents must struggle.

  2. poroti says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 5:38 pm

    nath:

    :I have already started construction of my Shorten voodoo doll to be ready for election night.

    Why not reuse the one you had for the last election ?
    ____________________
    I’m still in partial recovery from multiple surgeries of last year and have too much time on my hands. In 2016 I was too busy to worry about politics. I was all about those dollars.

  4. Can anyone like guess to who has most of the prepoll votes ?

    I will voting on the early morning > doctors appointment at 10:30 > gatherings with friends my wife will be doing her studies at a temple.

  5. Quote from Laura Tingle’s AFR article “Tectonic shift in the debate as election nears”

    “On the ground around the country, Coalition assessments have turned much blacker in the past week: Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah. The NSW seats of Gilmore and Reid seem lost, and the Coalition may not even pick up Lindsay from Labor.

    Cowper may be lost to Rob Oakeshott, and Farrer, despite Sussan Ley’s 20 per cent margin, to a local mayor. Senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats.”

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/tectonic-shift-in-the-debate-as-election-nears-20190510-p51lyp (may be paywalled)

  6. As I see it, the latest set of opinion polls are fairly improbable. They look under-dispersed compared with what I would expect from the central limit theorem. My grandmother would have bought a lottery ticket if she encountered something this unlikely.

    In my mind, this under-dispersion raises a question around the reliability of the current set of opinion polls. The critical question is whether this improbable streak of polls points to something systemic. If this streak is a random improbable event, then there are no problems. However, if this streak of polls is driven by something systemic, there may be a problem.

    I am not sure what is behind the narrow similarity of the most recent polls. I think pure chance is unlikely. I have wondered whether it is an artefact of online polling. Whether it reflects herding or pollster self-censorship. Or whether there is some other factor at work. I just don’t know. But I remain troubled.

    A systemic problem with the polls, depending on what it is, may point to a heightened possibility of an unexpected election result (in either direction), given the current set of polls.

    https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-05-09T08:04:00%2B10:00&max-results=7

    William has a similar article in today’s Crikey in which this post is cited.

  8. The ABC is down at the Yacht Club to talk about Franking Credits. Bloke on a boat, ‘I am going to lose money? he said with concern. Concern for himself.

  9. @Diogenes….I’m of the other school of thought that once the election is called and nominations and ballot spots are done you should be able to vote…..and the govt should allocate the funds to the AEC to make it happen.

    It would certainly help to get rid of the “saving up a dirt file” on people for late in a campaign…..ala Daley…..and make parties and candidates have policies ready to go not dropped on the electors at a staged managed event……

    ALL parties do this and it’s a turn off for me. A lot of good policy gets lost in mire of the campaign.

  10. Zoid

    Labor. My guide is the published polling being a snapshot

    It’s certainly going to bring interesting results of comparison for psephologists.

  12. Now they are talking to people on Newstart who are lucky to have $20 over at the end of a fortnight. (ABC)

  14. Edi_Mahin says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 5:43 pm

    John Denver is great music, certainly better than that Hendrix shit.
    _______________________
    Fckn idiot.

  15. Nath, they won’t hear that message since he’ll be elected without the need for preferences. You’d be better off writing to the party to state your displeasure.

  18. Sonar
    I’m a big fan of early voting for those reasons but there must be literally hundreds of thousands of (wo)manhours used to man the thousands of prepoll booths around Australia. It seems a huge waste of resources. Perhaps prepolls shouldn’t be allowed but you send in a pre poll postal vote instead.

  19. ltep says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 5:50 pm

    Nath, they won’t hear that message since he’ll be elected without the need for preferences. You’d be better off writing to the party to state your displeasure.
    _______________________
    It seems the SDA is a declining force in Victoria. As far as I know they have that Senate spot sown up, some Vic Parliament members, but I can’t think of any Federal seats they hold, not since Anna Burke. But maybe there is someone I’m not remembering.

  20. nath says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 5:39 pm

    …

    I’m still in partial recovery from multiple surgeries of last year and have too much time on my hands. In 2016 I was too busy to worry about politics. I was all about those dollars.

    Ah!

    So you’re a born again zealot.

    That explains much.

  21. As a self funded retiree with both my wife and I having to the order of $1.5 Million in our respective accounts, each receiving a tax free Allocated Pension of $80,000- PA plus having some $300,000- on Term Deposit each (at 2.7% PA) so the incomes from that source under the tax threshold, the ALP policy will not impact either of us (but may in the future dependent on the net of Allocated Pension draws increasing our respective balances AND Interest Rates increasing taking our respective earnings from interest on Term Deposits to above the threshold)

    But, we both declined the advice to invest in (specifically) NAB Shares (then at $36-) for the purpose of receiving Franking Credits PLUS a Dividend taking the return to above the rate on offer on our Term Deposits (because both my wife and I viewed it immoral)

    So each to their own

    And as I calculated on the back of a postage stamp, I (alone so ex my wife when she was in employment) have remitted over $1 Million and heading to $1.5 Million is tax over my life time as PAYE tax, Contributions Tax on contributing to superannuation, Tax on earnings in the Fund when in Accumulation Phase, the FBT after that was introduced (concessional Rates of Home Mortgage borrowings, Senior Officer Share Purchase Schemes with a Zero interest rate , discounted vehicle purchase finance, Senior Officer Health Cover and everything else captured by that legislation including reimbursement of social expenses incurred in conducting business)

    Now remitting the GST, based on you spend what you earn so conservatively $10,000- PA

    Plus our donations to various are effectively not tax deductible because we have no tax liability

    The reason I go to this detail is because very specifically the Labor policy does not impact on either my wife or me

    We are not the “Retirees” referred to in Liberal Party advertising

    So who are?

    And why?

    Noting they (like us) obviously do not qualify for the pension or part pension (and we trust we never will be in that circumstance)

    The Liberal Party advertising is a selective and deliberate lie

    So much so that I have handed out HTV’s in Deakin today, where the engagement and acceptance was significantly positive (and the Candidate was present which was a bonus)

    Not your typical ALP volunteer, hey?

    But hopefully we influence the outcome

    Because we have children – and Grand-children

    And just to finish, leaving the environment aside, read Stiglitz who I have very great regard for

  23. What worries me about prepolling is the effect on government school budgets. All those lost fund raising sausages.

  24. Puffy, with regard to your wayward relative. He may be right. Global warming is a fact and because of the lag effect, will get worse even if we stop all carbon emissions today. Wind turbines and solar panels mean we are putting less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than we would with old fashion power generation and hopefully be reducing the worst effects of AGW.

    On the other hand, your relative may be in denial that AGW is a thing and it is best not to engage. They will come around in due course.

  26. PuffyTMD:

    This person has some left wing views but since he has gone to the Top End, he is slowly turning to the dark side.

    “Gone Troppo”, as they say.

    Probably nothing one can do about it, but perhaps point your relative at the website for Finn Peacock’s business (SolarQuotes). In particular, the background story:
    – https://www.solarquotes.com.au/about-us.html
    may resonate: a control engineer, mostly in the coal industry, who saw the light and went solar

  27. @Dio……I don’t disagree……but the endless campaign bullshit drives me nuts….and a lot of others too I suspect.
    Today the PM said this, the OL said that, today the PM is in…( electorate)…..the OL is in …….( electorate)….the PM was photoed in a truck……the OL was photoed with a cow…….useless banality imho.
    Today the PM annouces a new road for…….?……the OL announces a new rail link to……?
    We get 5 weeks of it.
    Labor has done the right thing to a degree this election by announcing a lot of policy BEFORE the election was called so people have a fair idea what to expect and that is a good thing.

  28. Bluey Report: Day 8 Shut the Gate

    Bluey reckons the big event for the day was Labor releasing the PBO calculations of the costings of its policies. Bluey reckons that Labor continues with a big target/high risk approach. The timing is remarkable because the costings have been released very early. The Coalition has rushed out with the usual Black Holes blather. Bluey reckons that in terms of timing, Mumgate, the Third Debate Win, and the early Release of the Costings all pip the Liberal launch in terms of when Newspoll is in the field, assuming Newspoll doesn’t delay all its field work until Sunday. Bluey asks, rhetorically, ‘Surely they wouldn’t do that, would they?’ Cue BB.

    Bluey reckons that the drizzle of candidates hung on the petards of their various hate fests has turned into a cold shower today: Singh, Price and Botske (?) all turn out to have had a bit of the old Rightard gut hates of women and muslims. Pecora has gone for 7/11 conspiracism – another consistent feature of the rabid right. Morrison mansplained all this muck away by referring to social media. Uh huh.

    Bluey observed that there was a bit of Seselja fun at one of the prepolling booths in the ACT today. (BTW, Bluey is outraged that occies don’t get a vote. Bluey reckons that the sooner occies are recognized as persons under the Constitution the sooner all the great biodiversity smashing behaviour of the Rightards will be stopped.) Anyhoo, a nameless voter approached the Zed HTV hander-outer and sweetly enquired why Zed was the only parliamentarian in the nation who actively connived at sending jobs out of his electorate.
    ‘He doesn’t do that!’ came the waspish retort from a firmly-coiffed Zed zealot.
    ‘Oh, what about the Chemicals Authority being sent to Joyce’s seat of Armidale, the tax jobs being sent to the Central Coast, and the MDB authority being sent into Ley’s seat of Farrer?’
    Silencio!
    Bluey noted that the Greens and Labor HTV hander-outers were same old same old in this context: broad grins. Bluey overheard the Labor HTV hander outer assert that ‘That bloke’ (while pointing at a doctored image of a much younger Zed) ‘Is in a lot of trouble.’ Bluey sincerely hopes so.

    Bluey notes that, when Mr Palmer is not repelling the Chinese communist invasion of Western Australia, and promising to pay his workers just as soon as they vote him into the Senate, Mr Palmer is also shelling out for attack ads against Labor. Bluey reckons that Mr Palmer jumped the Great White Shark with his claim that Labor’s taxes would cost ‘$1 trillion!’

    Bluey notes that if the Morrison Government cannot get the spelling of ‘responsibilty’ right on a $50 dollar note how can it get the whole damn Budget right?

    Bluey reckons that Morrison has done Labor an electoral favour by getting into bed with Australia’s only political twerker. The bitterness about Mr Palmer’s treatment of workers, subbies, and whole towns in the deep north runs wide and runs deep.

    Bluey has a new marketing concept for the Ad Man. No, no, not pouring beer on his balding pate! High vis has been done to death. Perhaps Morrison could get together with Jenny Kee to develop a line of Liberal Invis. Bluey suggests that Price would bring integrity to modelling this new political fashion.

    Bluey notes that one of the US States has passed legislation giving a foetus the same legal rights as a person. Abortion is murder. Attempting to seek an abortion is attempting murder. Bluey reminds readers that Prime Minister Gillard was right when she warned that there were people dedicated to winding back the clock on women’s rights. In this context, Bluey notes that right wing Christian fundamentalists are actively perforating the defences of the traditional Liberal State organisations and preselection committees in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia.

    Bluey has a feeling that Mephisto is a Bludger lurker, so he reviewed Mr Morrison’s political tactic of wearing his religion on his sleeve. Bluey reminds Mr Morrison that the Fourth Circle of Hell is inhabited by people who have succumbed to the deadly sin of Greed, that the Eighth Circle of Hell is inhabited by people who have succumbed to the deadly sin of Fraud and that the Ninth Circle of Hell is inhabited by people who have succumbed to the deadly sin of TREACHERY. Bluey urges Mr Morrison to repent because his end is nigh.

    Score for the day: Labor 2; Coalition 0.
    Cumulative Score: Labor 25; Coalition 4.

  33. Laure Tingle:

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/tectonic-shift-in-the-debate-as-election-nears-20190510-p51lyp?&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:twi-14omn0055-optim-nnn:nonpaid-27/06/2014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_twitter

    You may have heard the sound of something snapping in the federal election campaign this week.

    In the wake of the last of the leaders’ debates, and the debacle for the Coalition of the Daily Telegraph attack on Bill Shorten over his mum, the leaders got back on their planes and buses to visit electorates across the country.

    But something had shifted.

    The Prime Minister didn’t have anything much to say out on the road: he was back defending Coalition seats. There was increasing pressure to explain where all his ministers were. There were conflicting messages about how he really did believe in climate change, but didn’t want the economy tied up in green tape.

    There was a sense within the Coalition that its campaign had run out of steam, even before the official ‘launch’ of the campaign in Melbourne on Sunday.

    On the ground around the country, Coalition assessments have turned much blacker in the past week: Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah. The NSW seats of Gilmore and Reid seem lost, and the Coalition may not even pick up Lindsay from Labor.

    There is also a shift in Labor’s rhetoric on climate change policy: where it once kept emphasising how it was really only implementing Coalition policies with a few additions, it is now spruiking its policies as a much more aggressive attack on climate change.

    Shorten is finding room to recalibrate messages, like revisiting arguments about intergenerational equity.

    Shorten’s senior economic frontbenchers are out there saying ‘yes, we are offering a very different take on how the country should be run’.

    They may still be talking about ‘key investments’ rather than ‘increased spending’ and ‘budget improvement’ rather than the removal of tax concessions.

    But the message is clear nonetheless: close tax loopholes – which Labor says benefit only small groups of people – to fund big spending on cheaper childcare, more spending on education, and health.

    The spending numbers are huge. But it says much about the lack of cut-through of the campaign that a promise to spend $4 billion on childcare subsidies during the next four years doesn’t really seem to have registered with voters, or even the promise to make dental care affordable to pensioners.

    Listen to the ‘vox pops’ on radio reports and you are constantly reminded how little attention people actually pay to election campaigns.

    So Labor’s biggest risk isn’t whether voters think the numbers in its costings add up, but getting over the entrenched view that it is not as good an economic manager as the Coalition.

  34. Ca@Momma:

    [for speaker, assuming ALP form government] Anthony Byrne is my pick

    Do they want to move him from the Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, given his now extensive experience thereon?

  36. Sykesie says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 5:41 pm
    Quote from Laura Tingle’s AFR article “Tectonic shift in the debate as election nears”

    “On the ground around the country, Coalition assessments have turned much blacker in the past week: Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah. The NSW seats of Gilmore and Reid seem lost, and the Coalition may not even pick up Lindsay from Labor.

    Cowper may be lost to Rob Oakeshott, and Farrer, despite Sussan Ley’s 20 per cent margin, to a local mayor. Senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats.”

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/tectonic-shift-in-the-debate-as-election-nears-20190510-p51lyp (may be paywalled)

    The whole article appears in Outline:

    https://www.outline.com/psPdgx

  37. With a week to go I predict Labor will win between 80-85 seats on election night. Both Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton are going to lose their seats. I would not be surprised if MP’s such as Sukkar, Christensen, Flint and Hastie lose their seats as well.

    However the Coalition are going to lose more than 7-13 seats, I think a handful are going to be lost to Independents and possibly The Greens. There could be some very unexpected results on election night.

  39. The interesting thing about the Tingle article is Tingle’s implicit assumption that Labor will form Government within a fortnight.

  41. On election night I am going to a stand-up comedy night in Osaka (11PM Sydney time)…I am presuming the result will be in by then, and i will have a riotous time!

  43. My guess for speaker is Steve Georganis. He is moving to Adelaide which is a pretty safe Labor seat with the new boundaries.

    Meant to mention in an earlier post; another observation James Campbell made on Sky is that he is hearing that both parties are picking up climate change as a big issue; he said that at the start of the campaign it was ranking as the number 3 or 4 issue, it’s now ranking as the top or second issue, and by far the top issue with younger voters.

  45. Tingle talks to people who talk to the pollsters. The public polls are obviously crap. Election night may be an arsekicking. My 55 – 45 may actually be close to the mark, for once. This mob has just tired everyone out.

  48. So, in the WA senate, can I ensure my votes only go to the ALP and Greens? Or is there no way to order my votes to do that?

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