Election minus eight days

A tight race in Cowper, mixed messages from Reid, and an intriguing surge of Labor enthusiasm about Leichhardt.

A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:

• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.

• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.

• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.

• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.

Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

961 comments on “Election minus eight days”

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  1. My election night will entail a three plus hour journey home from the far freezing reaches of Eden Monaro after doing the HTV and scrutineering.

  2. Seth

    Yes that’s my view too. With a bit of a boost to Labor thanks to Mumsgate.

    It’s turned Murdoch media campaigning into a negative for the LNP.

  3. Burgey @ #435 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 1:30 pm

    Dan,

    Been door knocking and will be handing out on election day as well.

    I know Ven has said I should basically be spreading myself around all of the eastern seaboard in every marginal seat rather than actually work my local area, but frankly you’d have to be a pretty decent sized Bondi cigar to take that sort of point with someone while not indicating wtaf you’re doing yourself to get your Party over the line.

    Forgive my tardiness in replying to you, just had a quick afternoon nap after I posted that comment.

    Yes, I remember now you stating that you had been out and about in Grayndler (my electorate when I lived in Sydney).

    So, a genuine thank you for your service this time.

  5. mundo @ #492 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 4:55 pm

    ‘They don’t just have a chance, it’s likely.’

    Nostradamus, wash your mouth out with bleach.
    There’ll be none of that real world thinking here thank you very much.

    Keep going, mundo, it’s just more quotes to throw back in your face after the election. 🙂

  8. Speaking of Eden Monaro, this must be the first election campaign for a while in which neither of the two leaders have visited the seat, and it hasn’t featured in media discussion of “marginal seats to watch”.
    Presumably Mike Kelly is going to increase his margin from 2016

  11. I suspect all those hit -job articles on Bill & family & friends will now languish in the editor’s top drawer.
    Anything they put out now will be recognised as trash

  15. C@tmomma @ #426 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    Kambah Mick @ #499 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 5:02 pm

    My election night will entail a three plus hour journey home from the far freezing reaches of Eden Monaro after doing the HTV and scrutineering.

    Once a True Believer, always a True Believer. 🙂

    Be careful coming home. Having driven both the main routes between Canberra and the coast many times neither is good when tired. Maybe find somewhere to stay down there if practical.

  17. It takes much more than 8 generations to get rid of Irish.
    Well done C@t against the odds.
    Thanks for all the election and volunteer work.

  19. I’d never write off the Libs winning, ever, remember Australia is a conservative country at heart, has been proven so historically. Certainly hoping for a Labor win, but not being complacent

  20. With Labor attacking rorts how about including the millions into pvt health rebates, mining exploration, diesel fuel rebates etc the country could extinguish the massive debt clocked up by the Libs in no time at all, there must be lots more out there.

  22. Evan

    The DLP split doesn’t prove Australia is conservative at heart.

    It just proves a disunited party doesn’t win elections

  25. A series of Perth interviewees by Geraldine Doogue (raised a Perthite ) was featured on ABC this week or late last week.

    One of several topics covered was the treatment of the fashionista, society A-lister, pseudo-conscientious foreign minister, wanna-be PM, the retiring member for Curtin, by her colleagues. One of her bestie supporters, wealthy dyed in the wool Liberal Party “philanthropist” banker John Poynton, said that the WA Liberal vote will be reduced as a result.

    After seeing Doogue’s report I am sure Labor will take at least one or two seats from the WA Libs.

  26. Right – just for a laugh I thought I would try using American Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to the Whitehouse” theory to see whether Morrison is going to win. You need 8 or more out of these 13 to be true to win. Bear with me – I have tried to adapt it to the Australian system.

    The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

    1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE – comparing 2013 and 2016

    2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. FALSE – Aug 2018

    3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE – usual in Aust

    4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.TRUE – cf Qld 1998

    5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.TRUE

    6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE

    7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.FALSE

    8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.TRUE

    9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE – where to start?

    10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.TRUE

    11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.FALSE

    12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.FALSE

    13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.TRUE

    The above 13 keys are slightly different from the 12 keys originally proposed in 1981.

    So I get 0011100101001 = 6 true = Morrison does not win.

  28. I am asking for some help with links to information please. My wayward relative says that ‘solar panels and a few windmills won’t fix climate change.’

    As LR says, it is too late to stop climate change.

    But significantly reducing carbon emissions will be the difference from climate change that is bad to climate change that is Armageddon.

    Australia is one of the biggest polluters per person and the energy sector is not only the biggest contributor but in many ways thankfully one of the easiest to tackle reductions in.

    So, shifting to renewables is a biggy, but must be done along with other things like reducing emissions from transport and land clearing. Land clearing issues, like the switch to renewables is both a pain and a potential boon. Revegetation is a potential income source and new industry. Even Abbott got that.

    The energy sector (comprising stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions from fuels) continues to be the dominant source of Australia’s GHG emissions, accounting for 74% of net emissions, including those associated with land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) (Figure 3.10). Within this sector, stationary energy accounts for 52%, comprising electricity (37%) and fuel combustion (15%).

    https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/climate/topic/emission-sources

  29. Just be playing around with the pre-poll numbers up to yesterday, by electoral division.

    I can’t particularly discern any relationship between the rate of pre-polling and the 2PP margin.

    The average prepolling is 10,875 per division (median 10,096), ranging from 3,815 (Adelaide) to 22,964 (Flinders….hello, Greg Hunt).

    Average electoral division by state. Victoria is a huge standout; possibly more problems for the LNP there (the Tasmanian numbers are much lower due to the electoral malproportionment)

    VIC 13,934
    QLD 12,268
    ACT 10,731
    NSW 10,137
    NT 7,895
    SA 7,721
    WA 7,436
    TAS (*) 4,796

  30. Wife and I doing HTVs for the Labor Team in the coming week at the Aussie Embassy. Election Day unfortunately cancelled in the Land of Smiles so all pre poll.

    So Somtum, PadThai, and Tom Yum Goong for me Election Eve (we is three hours behind the east here). Will get some cold Singha Beers ready to celebrate.

    Tell me the truth guys. Those who are on home turf. Will Australia be free of the chains of bondage on the 18th??

  31. What I really want to happen next week is for Newspoll to repeat what they managed in the Victorian election when they missed the Liberal support by 5% (they had them on 40% primary, they ended up with 35.2%). They also missed the TPP estimate by 3%, I’ll take that as well.

    The other polls were mostly much closer to the final count, but not close enough to claim any sort of accuracy or reliability.

  32. Thanks Sonar, a classic, but my favorite Jimi song is Little Wing. How does he get the guitar to sound like that? Fucking genius.

  33. ‘Keep going, mundo, it’s just more quotes to throw back in your face after the election. ‘

    I hope so.
    I really hope so.
    I want to be wrooooooooooooooooooooooong.

  34. Here are the top 10 electoral divisions by pre-polling. Some interesting contests in there:

    VIC Flinders LIB 7.0 22,964
    QLD Hinkler LNP 8.4 22,109
    VIC Indi IND 5.5 20,503
    NSW Cowper NAT 12.6 19,104
    QLD Fairfax LNP 10.9 19,049
    NSW Richmond ALP 4.0 18,854
    QLD Longman ALP 0.8 18,820
    NSW Gilmore LIB 0.7 18,226
    VIC Fraser ALP 19.8 17,862
    VIC Corangamite ALP 0.03 17,394

  35. Re The Libs deal with Clive. A question not yet put to Morrison is when did Liberal party negotiations with Palmer for his preference begin 2018 or 2019.??? I believe Clive wouldn’t have put up mega $$$ at end 2018 if he wasn’t guaranteed a nice little surprise. Get Morrison on the record re this for future references

  37. Guytaur

    Although a long time ago now and in a vastly different social context, the DLP split did show that religious nutters can well organise themselves (over a cuppa after their worship service) to corrupt politics.

    We are certainly not immune to that even now, where religious nutters either individually (Abbott, Morrison, Andrews) or collectively (NSW religious right) inflict their narrow mindedness on secular politics.

  38. My electorate is Canning and I’d be interested in people’s opinions on my election experience.
    Up until two weeks ago the only election info we had was a letter to all four adults in the household encouraging us to arrange for a postal vote from the very helpful Andrew Hastie.(I kept the envelope and marked his subsequent “look what I’m promising letter “ with appropriate comments in red pen and returned it post paid. At this point in time on regular trips from south of Byford to Armadale no corflutes at all.
    Since then my daughter in law has received two letters from Melissa Teede over the last two weeks and today one from Mark McGowan. My son, husband and myself nothing. About 6 general flyers from Clive, 3 from Liberal one from labor. The number of corflutes has also increased about 8 liberal and Clive to one labor.
    I know federally this seat is safe liberal but this area did go labor during a state election, unfortunately the local member was kicked out of the party for pretending to be something he wasn’t and the area reverted to the dark side.
    My main issue with labor is why is only one voter being targeted, don’t they want thee rest of us to vote labor or are they sure we will anyway but think my daughter in law has different views?

  40. Laocoon, What is the first number after the electorate name? Is it the margin? (I want to read too much into those numbers. I think you’ve triggered something personal.)

  41. nath:

    I have already started construction of my Shorten voodoo doll to be ready for election night.

    I find it astonishing that you have not attended to this basic step before now, in good time for you to put it to use.
    What sort of vendetta-ist are you anyway, to make such a schoolboy error?

  42. Pysclaw

    That’s the danger of an extreme LNP opposition if Labor gets voted out at the next election.

    I am hoping that it really will be a long term Labor government for that reason.

  43. Just to say to any Victorian ALP voters that you can vote below the line and send a message to SDA operative Raff Ciccone who is number 1 on the ALP ticket. I’ll certainly be leaving him off mine.

  44. @Assant

    In my safe Labor seat, there was a mailout for the first time voters. There has also been mailouts to specific parts of the electorate. I’m not sure why but it is most likely part of the campaign strategy or issue with campaign resources.

  45. All the votes that have been cast are votes neither side can change.
    Tbh I made my mind up when Turnbull went all right wing…and nothing has changed it since. I have never voted Liberal but I have for independents…..anyway,this time it’s straight up ALP for house and senate.

  46. citizen

    All about him from his days as a rower (in a GPS regatta?)

    Yep , same same back then,backward looking and could not see where he was going .

  47. Manning the prepoll booths for three weeks must really stretch the resources of the parties. Each time I’ve gone past, at least four parties were represented. Frankly, their time could be used a bit more profitably. Perhaps we should cut the prepoll period to a week.

  48. E. G. Theodore says:
    Friday, May 10, 2019 at 5:31 pm

    nath:

    I have already started construction of my Shorten voodoo doll to be ready for election night.

    I find it astonishing that you have not attended to this basic step before now, in good time for you to put it to use.
    What sort of vendetta-ist are you anyway, to make such a schoolboy error?
    ______________________________
    I have been concentrating on persuading my large family of ALP voters to change to the Greens. The results have been a mixed bag. So far, I have converted 2, but others are resistant to change. I’ll continue the campaign.

  49. nath:

    :I have already started construction of my Shorten voodoo doll to be ready for election night.

    Why not reuse the one you had for the last election ?

  50. Rocket Rocket – yeah that Flinders number is amazing, fully 20%. Similar in Indi etc

    Late Riser – alas, yeah the formatting is not good. The first number is the margin I have in my database, e.g. Flinders on a 7.0% margin to LNP

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