A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.
• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.
• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.
• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.
Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.
Any jokers vote for this outfit in the 1980s? They got nearly 4000 votes at the 83 election.
The Deadly Serious Party was a political party that stood candidates in Australian elections in the 1980s. Its platform included dispatching a flock of killer penguins to protect Australia’s coastline from Argentine invasion, an age freeze, and the appointment of silly people to all the portfolios that matter. It was deregistered effective 2 November 1988 for not having the required 500 members.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadly_Serious_Party
Morrison and ‘bold agenda’ are contradictions in terms.
The Lib-Lib plan has always been to keep the focus on Labor….and to tell astronomically large lies about Labor. They have absolutely nothing else.
nath says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:54 pm
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hate is a strong word. I’ve known some fine Queenslanders. Although admittedly they had all deserted to Victoria where they could live out their days in some degree of comfort and refinement.
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Do you think you could persuade all the ex Victorians living on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast and voting Liberal to go back for some of that comfort and refinement. We do not want them fucking up our good beaches.
Soccer people are so weirdly fragile. I really like AFL but I don’t feel personally attacked if another sport is popular, nor do I feel the need to childishly appropriate a word (football) that obviously describes a different sport to my countrymen. For people who bleat about the dominance of the world game they certainly seem anxious and defensive.
Talking up playing in the soccer world cup is like talking up playing in the world cup of tiddlywinks – it’s not that impressive if no one here is all that good at it but we get a go at it on a nation by nation basis. Australia in world soccer is and always will be like Ireland playing cricket. A+ for effort, but we will always lose to the real soccer countries.
Also, aren’t Melbourne and Geelong two of the oldest sporting clubs on Earth? And do people realise that AFL is one of the most attended sporting leagues in the world?
nath @ 10:56 pm
I’m always rather inclined to trust the polls at this point in the cycle, not least because an election is the one time in which a poll can be shown to be giving an accurate or inaccurate picture of the underlying phenomenon being sampled. In that sense, elections are the pollsters’ opportunities to prove their worth to the broader commercial market where they make their money, and as David Butler pointed out decades ago, that alone gives them a motive to do their damnedest to the it right.
why isn’t labor attacking the debt growth ? it makes a joke of all govt economic claims –
it was big attack item when labor last in office, but it has trebled since then (and thanks to greens been buried away from legislative attention)
nath says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:56 pm
At the Federal level it’s always different. Rudd could only manage 50.44 in 2007 and he was really the only Qld PM we’ve had
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That was because we already new what a prick he was.
Ken Wyatt
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6MmLmNUIAIWHAS?format=jpg&name=large
“Outline a bold agenda”???? How about outline ANY agenda?
Refer 2014 Budget and IPA Wishlist.
Peter Stanton
says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 11:06 pm
nath says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:54 pm
_________________________
hate is a strong word. I’ve known some fine Queenslanders. Although admittedly they had all deserted to Victoria where they could live out their days in some degree of comfort and refinement.
————————-
Do you think you could persuade all the ex Victorians living on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast and voting Liberal to go back for some of that comfort and refinement. We do not want them fucking up our good beaches.
______________________________________
fair point.
nath @11:03 pm
I’m pretty sure that the Deadly Serious Party had candidates for the ACT House of Assembly elections in 1982, and I also recall that they ran in the Flinders by-election that year after Sir Phillip Lynch died, with one of their proclaimed policies being to move Flinders University to the electorate. (Of course, that predated party labels on the ballot and federal party registration.)
Pedant
says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 11:07 pm
nath @ 10:56 pm
I’m always rather inclined to trust the polls at this point in the cycle, not least because an election is the one time in which a poll can be shown to be giving an accurate or inaccurate picture of the underlying phenomenon being sampled. In that sense, elections are the pollsters’ opportunities to prove their worth to the broader commercial market where they make their money, and as David Butler pointed out decades ago, that alone gives them a motive to do their damnedest to the it right.
______________________________
If the ALP does get 51 in Qld, which if I’m not mistaken, brings Qld into line with the national results. It would change the dynamics of Australian politics. Qld has always been a conservative bastion federally. Something the ALP always had to make up for elsewhere.
Rocket Rocket @ #842 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 10:59 pm
Why doesn’t he just pack his bags and go home to The Shire now, then?
Also, re Sydney and GWS…
The problem with the former is mostly coaching related. They have an awful, outdated game plan and the worst skills in the AFL.
GWS on the other hand look like the best team at the moment (I say that as a Geelong fanatic) and might well win it all this year.
As for tackling compared to rugby, two key differences – your opponent isn’t conveniently running straight at you all the time, and AFL players can’t be stocky lumps of muscle because they have to jump and do 10-15kms of interval sprinting over a two hour game.
The Project editorialising?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1126766970550906880
Pedant
says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 11:13 pm
nath @11:03 pm
I’m pretty sure that the Deadly Serious Party had candidates for the ACT House of Assembly elections in 1982, and I also recall that they ran in the Flinders by-election that year after Sir Phillip Lynch died, with one of their proclaimed policies being to move Flinders University to the electorate. (Of course, that predated party labels on the ballot and federal party registration.)
________________________
lol. Moving Flinders Uni makes sense. I’m surprised they also did not think about moving Monash, La Trobe and Deakin into their respective electorate. Their policy of appointing silly people to all the portfolios that matter was taken up by Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison. So that is their legacy perhaps.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1126459332386639872
Mark Humphries nails The Daily Telegraph’s sorry arses to the floor. 😀
That Project video is infuriating in that it promotes the moronic “all politicians are the same” line. Why show Shorten as though he’s part of the problem when a Labor has a vastly better policy on climate change? “Balance”?
“As for tackling compared to rugby..”
Also in Australian football it is not always smart to over-commit to a tackle as it could end up being holding the man. Pinning the arms of the player with the ball is the best option.
nath @ 11:13 pm
“Qld has always been a conservative bastion federally. ”
Well, that depends what you mean by a “bastion”. And “always” is a big claim. In the cliffhanger election of 1961, Labor won 11 seats in Queensland to the coalition’s 7. At the same election, the coalition won Victoria 23 to 10. For long years it was Victoria which was regarded as the brightest jewel in the Liberal crown.
That’s true Pedant. I’m talking post DLP era. The DLP decimated the ALP in Victoria.
The YouGov Galaxy poll is a nice thing to have, as I hadn’t been trusting how far BludgerTrack had been leaning to Labor in Queensland. It’s brought their two-party preferred back from 51-49 to 50.1-49.9, and their seat projection from eight gains to six.
Well, it’s looking like the ALP costings haven’t been pulled apart. Any signs of “yarns” being broken on that?
Your welcome William Bowe. Hehe. We little elves like to keep you fed.
I will take a six seats gain in Queensland.
Correction: it says 50.2-49.8 to Coalition in Queensland.
I’m confused about the QLD poll. Why does it show ALP lost 3 since Feb??? Why the change?
Is this a cause for concern?
@ Patrick Bateman…….”I really like AFL but I don’t feel personally attacked if another sport is popular, nor do I feel the need to childishly appropriate a word (football) that obviously describes a different sport to my countrymen. For people who bleat about the dominance of the world game they certainly seem anxious and defensive.”……..
I’m not offended by anyone having a go or partaking in banter about sport….rugby…afl….football….cricket………whatever….. I’m all good with it and actually love it.most Australians…not all granted have a liking for a sport.
Codes such as AFL which are so defensive about a game that is played mainly in Aus. …..a code where it is so localised that there is no hope to represent your country at a high level that they demean and criticise those sports that do have that pathway is small minded…..very small minded.
I wasn’t the one who used personal abuse about another poster and there is a difference.Typical of them to play the man and not the ball…….lol
Blobbit @ #873 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 11:26 pm
No, but the ‘zombie taxes’ line is being given a red hot go by David Crowe:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-election-plan-risks-the-rise-of-zombie-taxes-201905
“and their seat projection from eight gains to six.”
I’ll take that. 🙂
I am just happy to see any new polls. This Queensland one would still mean solid gains for Labor.
By the way, good win to the Swans tonight – thought they’d go OK but lose.
I am hoping for a post-launch Newspoll shock for the Coalition on Sunday night.
Will any polls drift from the ‘herd’?
The members of the Deadly serious party went on to become very prominent members of society, academia and politics.
Ps Labor’s climate policy is better than the coalitions non-policy, but it’s still wholly inadequate given the urgency of the situation. The problem with being a union based party is that they are obliged to support heavy polluting industries.
Pedant says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:59 pm
Surely that would only work if the Party was there!
William, Bludgertrack now has Labor in line to pick up just 1 seat in WA. This matched my own completely non-quant feelings a week ago….maybe along the lines of gaining 2 and losing 1. I think it’s better this week than last week for Labor. I think a net 3 feels right…mebbe Swan, Pearce and Stirling or Hasluck….the mood of voters is more overtly for Labor this week among the admittedly tiny and non-random sample I’ve met, and from my observations of pre-poll voters. I also think hitherto undecided voters in the metro fringes are settling for Labor more often than not. fwiw, I think Cowan will be very very tight…too close to call….
It will be very interesting to see if State-level breakdowns on polling data get the results right here.
The February poll had the Coalition down three on the previous poll in November — and they weren’t doing great in November. So the February result looks like an outlier. Also, Labor’s national primary vote has fallen 1.2% since February, according to BludgerTrack, so a drop with February as a baseline isn’t as bad for them as one recorded over the past week or two.
Blobbit
I did love hearing Labor say that they would not raise tax as share of GDP over the levels of the Howard-Costello Government. Sort of snookers Morrison and Frydenberg!
@ Patrick Bateman…….”I really like AFL but I don’t feel personally attacked if another sport is popular, nor do I feel the need to childishly appropriate a word (football) that obviously describes a different sport to my countrymen. For people who bleat about the dominance of the world game they certainly seem anxious and defensive.”……..
I’m not offended by anyone having a go or partaking in banter about sport….rugby…afl….football….cricket………whatever….. I’m all good with it and actually love it.most Australians…not all granted have a liking for a sport.
Codes such as AFL which are so defensive about a game that is played mainly in Aus. …..a code where it is so localised that there is no hope to represent your country at a high level that they demean and criticise those sports that do have that pathway is small minded…..very small minded.
I wasn’t the one who used personal abuse about another poster and there is a difference.Typical of them to play the man and not the ball…….lol
BludgerTrack’s downturn for Labor in WA looks too steep for me. The smaller the state, the noisier the data gets — especially if it’s been a long time since the last Newspoll breakdowns, in which case it’s relying on recent small-sample results from Essential.
@briefly – WA has been stuck on -+1 for a while.
While BT was a little too generous in Qld, it STILL feels a little too tight in Vic, WA and NSW.
Bob says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 11:33 pm
The members of the Deadly serious party went on to become very prominent members of society, academia and politics.
Ps Labor’s climate policy to better than the coalitions non-policy but it’s still wholly inadequate given the urgency of the situation. The problem with being a union based party is that they are obliged to support heavy polluting industries.
This mis-states the problem. The very grave challenge of climate change must be met while at the same time employment goals, household incomes and community cohesion are protected. There is just one party that can attempt this and accomplish this. Climate change is a social justice issue. It must be met while also defending social and economic justice. Only one party exists to serve the interests of working people. That party, Labor, is also called on to meet the profound demands of climate change. No other party can do it. Labor must.
sonar, I think a key difference is that footy fans don’t spend their time thinking about soccer at all… Soccer people seem obsessed with footy though!
I quite like soccer but I can’t handle the blatant cheating. If they stamped out diving and umpiring that invariably favours the powerful teams then it’d be a much better sport. The fact that deliberately faking to win free kicks is tolerated in a sport usually decided by a goal or two baffles me.
Re sport being localised, I prefer sport to be about sport, not nationalism.
Thanks William…will be fascinating to see how it all plays out….
hungry jack says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 11:07 pm
It is, but the point has always been that it’s a structural problem created under Howard/Costello, so the increasing debt under the Liberals further highlights this point.
That’s what removing the franking credits is about.
J….I hope you’re right…
briefly
says:
Only one party exists to serve the interests of working people. That party, Labor, is also called on to meet the profound demands of climate change. No other party can do it. Labor must.
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And there’s only one man who can deliver this message in short sentences. That man. Briefly.
Commonwealth debt is a political millstone…but it is an economic mirage…
Re climate change, the case for inaction is based on the pure fantasy that there is a choice available where we keep on doing things the way we always have.
The real choices are catastrophe or social change. The task for government is simply to try to avoid the former and achieve the latter. There is no third option.
To take coal mining, it’s over. It simply has to end, other than for niche applications. The problem is how to manage the transition, not whether there’s going to be a transition.
Patrick Bateman
says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 11:49 pm
Re climate change, the case for inaction is based on the pure fantasy that there is a choice available where we keep on doing things the way we always have.
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eh, its too late. In 300 years our descendants will be eating each other and fighting over the last pools of water. Enjoy Netflix and a hot shower while it’s still available.
Scripsi ergo sum
Nah nath, people like me are going to pull people like you through with us to a different, but liveable planet. We’re a tough, adaptable species.
Also water won’t be lacking in many places. More heat means more evaporation and more rain in some places.