Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.
Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.
Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.
Further reading on Poll Bludger:
• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.
• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.
• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.
Bill was right when he said the Coalition will be a another bunch of second raters.Punters that are happy to be 2nd raters know what to do.
Big A Adrian
says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 2:57 pm
“That was Shorten’s best ever public speech”
havent heard it yet, but my personal favourite is still his 2014 budget reply
______________________________
I’m waiting for my signed copy of the Collective Speeches of Bill Shorten. Should be a cracker.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #591 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 3:01 pm
Yep three more years barring death or double D
“After the event, putting their own spin on it lol.”
The television feed of Labor’s conference was produced by Labor themselves and provided to the establishment media. If that’s not putting your own spin on it then I don’t know what is lol
Keating talking about micro grids. Very interesting. Obviously keeping up with what is going on.
“I’m waiting for my signed copy of the Collective Speeches of Bill Shorten. Should be a cracker.”
Oh that’s sure to be a page-turner alright!
Guytaur please let us know what time
I liked the 2014 budget reply speech too.
Firefox@2:40pm
Did media cover the Greens launch? If not why not?
Why do you keep even campaign launch secret?
SCOUT
Probyn did not say anything than more than in the next few hours. That means it will also go up on all the usual ABC alternative platforms like Youtube.
Plus Labor will probably post it too.
Firefox
You may be surprised; swinging voters don’t subscribe to Green facebook pages.
1
Cheers Guytaur thank you
Virtually all these seat polls are cherry picked to make it look good for the Libs but the betting agencies disagree overall.The betting organisations individual seats move only after these seat polls are published.
William, I have a question. Would it be possible for you to add the ACT and NT to your Bludgertracker?
Swamprat @3.08:
Thanks again.
Agree the party seems well worth preferencing in NSW Senate ballot.
Swivel seems to have quite a strong personal CV. and I can’t see the son of my acquaintance (who I mentioned this morning) throwing his lot in with a crackpot.
Cheers.
Not really.
Man walks into a bar and immediately starts making sense.
Do yourself a favour and watch the Keating walk up.Hopefully they don’t edit out him just walking up and introducing himself to Andrew Proban & co.mid waffle.I hope this one gets onto Youtube in full with the collected works of PJK
The Lonergan poll 56-44 to Steggall affected Sportsbet seat polling almost straightaway. Yesterday Abbott was $1.45,Steggall $2.70. Today $1.85 each.
“Firefox
You may be surprised; swinging voters don’t subscribe to Green facebook pages.”
You may be surprised to find out that the Greens aren’t targeting right wing Labor/Liberal swinging voters. You may also be surprised to find out that people are turning off the establishment media in droves.
Fascinating ( to me anyways 🙂 ) article by respected Salon writer Lucian Truscott
Using GPS instead of maps is the most consequential exchange of technologies in history
Maps can’t be hacked. GPS can be. We’ll pay for this one day
GPS. We’re going to end up paying big-time for the disuse of maps and the ubiquity of GPS, I’m afraid. You don’t need one in your car anymore, because everywhere you go, you’re carrying one in your pocket. Every smartphone is outfitted with Global Positioning Satellite technology, and unless you somehow disable it, the goddamn thing is on all the time
But what if somebody…say, the Russians or the Chinese…figure out a way to jam the satellites that keep all the GPS shit operating, and those screens in the helicopters and GPS locators in the Humvees go black? I’m sure the Army has maps to use as back-ups, but if you don’t read the goddamn things regularly, you lose touch with the largely instinctual ability to read terrain and maintain a good-old-fashioned sense of direction. How about this: it’s the middle of the night, there’s no moon, you’re two miles from the nearest road, you’re moving through a freshly-plowed field, and the last thing you remember seeing was a group of three unoccupied mud huts next to an irrigation canal, but that was a couple of miles ago. Your GPS goes black.
Now imagine that scenario writ large. You’re in the war room in the Pentagon, and you can’t “see” the satellite images of where you’ve got 15,000 troops on the ground. Your helicopters can’t “see” so they can’t fly. Neither can your fighters. Your artillery units can’t aim their Howitzers because they can’t “see” their targets using GPS to fix and fire at them. Those zillion dollar guided missiles can’t be guided, so they’re useless.
MUCH MORE : https://www.salon.com/2019/05/04/using-gps-instead-of-maps-is-the-most-consequential-exchange-of-technologies-in-history/
BK @ #425 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:14 pm
That’s why the ministers are invisible – no policy to discuss. And the MSM is in no way intelligent enough to make this a talking point – as it should be.
Living in Tassie I would be disappointed if Labor lost any seats here after it was a 50-50 result nationally last time.
Tristo @ #202 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 9:12 am
Even more important than truth in media is the existing truth in advertising laws need to be extended to political adverts. Each political advert will not only need to be approved by the party(s) executive, it will need to be submitted to an independent fact checker before it’s released, with massive fines applied to not only the party, but also to the media outlet that airs/prints them.
phoenixRED @ #617 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 3:26 pm
I don’t see how maps can be replaced. GPS can’t show direction, contours, Creeks, fence lines etc, etc.
“Not really.”
Not enough polling data for them? It just seems unfair that about 500,000 Australians aren’t being represented. Oh, and Tassie isn’t there either. So make that approx one million Australians.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a fantastic feature and an absolute credit to you. Would just be nice to be able to see data for all the states and territories that’s all.
It’s more that WB relies on data collected by the polling firms and most don’t report on NT or ACT.
Steve Davis Bass and Braddon love to be contrary and change reguarly. …….i expect gold plated 6 lane highways up there
Firefox says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 3:12 pm
Would it have looked any different if the MSM had been holding the cameras?
Maybe that’s why the Green launch was poorly covered, they expect people to take an interest without doing anything to assist.
Also your social media remarks about promoting the event tend to suggest how ineffective it is in getting your message beyond your clique.
sprocket_ @ #223 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 9:22 am
Better late than never I guess.
Firefox says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 3:12 pm
“After the event, putting their own spin on it lol.”
The television feed of Labor’s conference was produced by Labor themselves and provided to the establishment media. If that’s not putting your own spin on it then I don’t know what is lol
——————————————
Unlike other parties the ALP conferences are open to the media and the public. Bit hard to put “your own spin on it” when the media are watching the event live.
The establishment media tend to selectively hone in on the banal -the nose pick, the facial twitch, the verbal stumble, the ear scratch.
And that becomes the story.
For once they are being forced to concentrate on what really is important.
No pollster publishes results for Tasmania, much less the territories. ReachTEL used to give me breakdowns that did so, but first they stopped giving me their breakdowns, and then they stopped doing national polling altogether.
Confessions
Then WOW!!!!
I have no doubt that Steggall, Oakeshott, maybe Kevin Mack in Farrer and perhaps other similar sort of Independents be elected. Also Phelps will be re-elected in Wentworth, since the Federal Wentworth demonstrated to me a massive anti-Coalition, but very little pro-Labor mood in the electorate.
My pick Newspoll 54/46 to Labor
That’s a Holy Cow!!!, Scott 🙂
Amy gets it!
One side’s for things, the other is against.
The Guardian blog
Zoidlord @ #319 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 10:06 am
Now that is the photo of the day for me.
There’s gotta be a lot of confused PBers around after seeing that Photo!
Firefox @3:25
“You may be surprised to find out that the Greens aren’t targeting right wing Labor/Liberal swinging voters.”
Seriously?
So you only want to speak to people who already agree with you?
Well that explains three things:
1. why the Greens are locked at or below 10%
2. Why the Greens are so bad at actually achieving change.
3. Why the post Bob Brown Greens have such a widespread reputation as bad faith negotiators.
“Now that is the photo of the day for me”
Won’t be waiting for the Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison equivilent. Although went to the Chaser/Shovel “War on F*#king Elections” show in Canberra last night and they had a backdrop with the two leaders heads on either side. Scrott’s face was gaffer taped over Turnbull’s.
Many seem on a high after the launch today which is very encouraging.
For me, while the froth and bubble are part of the it all, I thought the debate a couple of nights ago, and the earlier one as well, showed Shorten has the measure of Morrison. This, of itself, does not mean any more certainty for Labor than in the polls but the fact that Shorten took a rise out of Morrison at both gigs is a bit ominous for those who think the optics are important. I am sure the Libs will be able to do a Blue shade Razzle Dazzle as well as Labor, but in contrast, it will be a threadbare, one-man-band—-though I am sure Howard will be wheeled out……………Maybe a Ming look-alike? Who else in the Liberal Party now, would the public recognise anyway?
Bet your bottom dollar both Turnbull and Abbott, if they front at all, will be kept on a short leash….
Great photo. Sad there are only three. Bob’s ailing otherwise he’d have been there. Gough left us a few years ago.
Tristo says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 3:44 pm
With the existence of Phelps in the election I don’t know how you can say that.
I would suggest that Wentworth showed that it’s easier for disaffected Liberal supporters to support a conservative independent than to support Labor, but that’s pretty obvious.
Turnbull is in New York. He will stay there for the duration of the campaign and he’ll let Turnbull Jnr deal with the removal of Abbott & c0.
He’s been stabbed by the Libs already so he’s not taking any chances of being around Morrision for another hug of death.
Caught a bit of Shorten’s beach. Great stuff.
They are already taking The Rodent out of his display case for next week .
Is newspoll that bad??