YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan

Seat polls find nothing in it in Perth’s marginals, Labor and Liberal alike.

Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.

Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.

Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.

Further reading on Poll Bludger:

• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.

• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.

• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan”

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  1. citizen @ #845 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    What quirk exists in Ipsos that the Greens are consistently over estimated?

    Ipsos is telephone poll using random digit dialling. It is then weighted to represent demographics.
    One would imagine this skews it towards an older demographic with bigger errors in lower age groups.

  2. Vogon Poet says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 6:15 pm

    so many rabbit holes

    Nah, I think it’s just one hole, but it’s getting crowded! 🙂

  3. “So the Greens are propping Labor up according to IPSOS.”

    Feckless barracking by Rex. But who for?

  4. ‘Tricot says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 5:36 pm

    The Labor “team” has yet to be proved in office. ‘

    Uh huh. Nothing like a Grumpy Green!

    ALL senior Labor Shadows have had extensive experience as ministers. All senior Labor Shadows have had six years of strenuous work on developing the most ambitious suite of costed and funded policies in Opposition in the history of the Federation. They have done this without the massive policy resources of departments, of Treasury or or Finance.

    The Team has worked remarkably well in that most difficult of all circumstances: a Party deeply divided as well as a Party that had suffered a shattering electoral defeat. The policy productivity is remarkably good. The Team discipline over six years has been extraordinary: virtually nothing for the Liberals, the Newscorps vultures, or the Greens to feed off.

    The completely untested rabble are members for minor and powerless parties who have never had ministerial responsibilities, who never will have ministerial responsibilities, and who have zero accountability for policies that do not have to be grounded in anything at all but the fevered imaginations of ideologues and populist ratbags. Despite decades of snouting the public trough, not one of them has ever delivered a skerrick of substance. Most of them have matched their productivity in Parliament with their productivity before entering Parliament.

    These are the sorts of do-nothing snot-nosed snivellers who would be the ones sneering at the Labor Team being ‘untested’.

  5. I read an article where a political lecturer suggested Shorten polling was down on preferred PM because voters couldn’t imagine him being PM. He predicted it would rise as the election got closer as voters came to the realisation that likely will be a realty.

    I’m also hoping as the election gets closer the time for change factor will lock in and voters will get behind Labor. However that narrative may not be as strong as the 2007 election because the Howard government was in power longer.

  6. From the annals of Stupid Fuckwits You See On TV Vox-Pops #167734…

    Gilmore voter in Gilmore saying he doesn’t want future generations, including his children and grandchildren, getting slugged with a damn Labor Climate Change Tax.

    Far less complicated to just go for Climate Change direct, and avoid taxes altogether. Cheaper that way, and you get the real thing.

  7. I don’t know why they say the Libs are broke. They must be running ten TV ads to every one of Labor’s at the moment.

    If I see another “The Bill you can’t afford” punch line, I’ll scream.

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