YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan

Seat polls find nothing in it in Perth’s marginals, Labor and Liberal alike.

Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.

Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.

Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.

Further reading on Poll Bludger:

• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.

• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.

• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan”

Comments Page 17 of 18
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  3. Shorten increasing on ppm just out from the election tells you people know it’s done and are coming around to him being in office

  5. Dave I have an uncle from Wagga Wagga who is a hardcore Labor supporter who is also voting for the independent.

  6. ltep says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 6:00 pm

    Because elections, like it or not are largely seen by the voting public (at least the ones that matter) as a competition between the leaders. That Labor are resorting to pointing to their team is a sign that their research is probably showing Shorten is a liability. Pointing to teams has been done by losing sides plenty of times – such as Hayden highlighting Bob Hawke and Wran in the 1980 election.

    Well considering Labor have been highlighting their team since before the campaign started, it certainly isn’t a change in tactics as you want to suggest.

  8. That’s a nice Ipsos poll but I would love to see something show some 2PP movement away from the Coalition, not toward them.

    (Not that worried though. There’s nothing right now that is really convincing me that Labor won’t win.)

  9. “#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 33 (-1) GRN 14 (+1) ON 5 (0) UAP 3 #auspol”

    Pft! Greens on 14. Labor on 33. Go home Ipsos. You’ve drunk.

    Actually, fuck right off altogether. You’ve useless.

  11. Vogon Poet says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 4:03 pm
    Poroti,
    Looking quite youthful compared to last week, had a bit of work done ?

    Wong ??

  13. @RL – 51-49 was too tight, 53-47 probably a little too generous. 52-48 feels about right even considering the garbage primaries.

  14. WRT comments earlier today about Labor having this election”in the bag”. I for one reckon they have. I think some people are being overly pessimistic. How many Newspolls, Essentials, Morgans, Reachtels has the ALP lead since this government was elected? What is the statistical likelihood that the poll that is conducted on May 18 will be different from every poll that has preceded it?

    And to the media commentariat reporting “I don’t sense a mood for change. People are not out there with baseball bats”. People made up their minds long ago. The polls have run consistently against the government. People have been waiting a long, long time for this election. The anger and frustration has morphed into the acceptance of the reality that there was no point getting all mob-like with baseball bats – ScoMo was always going to drag it out hoping for a Tampa to come along. Now the electorate just wants to get this done so they can put this miserable joke of a government behind them and move on to better times.

    I actually think the defeat is going to come quite clinically and Labor will have a large majority. That is, of course, barring some major stuff up by Shorten. Doesn’t look likely on present form.

    Chin up people. 13 more sleeps!

    For the record, I’m predicting 53/47 Newspoll – unless the Murdochracy are overly generous with rounding against Labor again.

    DR

  16. One thing this campaign has shown us is that Bill Shorten is likable and electable. Kudos to him.
    I’ve been critical of him in the past but he’s shed that image of being all ambition and no substance – and then some.
    I stand corrected.

  17. @RL – 51-49 was too tight, 53-47 probably a little too generous. 52-48 feels about right even considering the garbage primaries.

    How do you know that? I am not doubting that we could be looking at around 52-48 but how do you know what the correct “feel” is?

  18. The PPM is easily the most interesting part of this. The coalition’s whole election strategy is kill bill and Shorten’s popularity is rising not falling, the LNP are toast if this continues because it’s the only thing they thought they had going for them heading into this campaign

  19. Applying 2016 preferences (Greens, ON and ‘others’) and 2013 preferences (PUP for UAP) must give that Ipsos poll an actual 53/37 2PP result … although who cares, it’s Ipsos. Worse than Morgan.

  20. The difference in the Greens primary between IPSOS and other polls is around 650,000 voters. How this happens, I don’t know.

  21. @RL – I know as much as anyone here. If you want declarative facts, I’m not your guy. I’m trusting my gut more this time… so best to dismiss my thoughts as that. Everyone wants AN ANSWER – but the only answer will be on May 18.

    Returning to the numbers – interesting that their figures both respondent-allocated and previous election are lining up.

    If we see these significant increases in Shorten’s standing in Newspoll – the Libs key campaign strategy is looking increasingly fucked.

  22. All the usual commentators believe that IPSOS green vote is a joke.

    KB
    GRN 14. This joke stopped being funny years ago. #Ipsos

  24. The 14% for the Greens needs a bit of a look, but interestingly both parties have lost a point. Ipsos we know, but from a purely morale point of view, not looking so good for the LNP at the moment. From high 30s to mid 40s for the LNP, at this point in time, a pretty tall tree to climb. Let’s put it this way, if this came out for the LNP the other way round, we would not have heard the end of it from the LNP cheer squad……………………

  27. Wayne .. You really cut me up
    Try this .. Our magnificent Greens are racing forwards in the polls and our mighty leader Richard D (umm .. ) and we will elect a new mighty leader who will be King maker and Adani will eventually be stopped!

  28. I think 52-48 is about as it is going to get for Labor, but hey, if this translates into seats…………not much joy for Morrison and his merry band I would have thought.

  29. “KB
    GRN 14. This joke stopped being funny years ago. #Ipsos”

    But that tweet is funny. Smack!

  30. Shouty mcshoutyface is going to be in hyperdrive now. His stroppy surliness and agro will start to show more. He will be rude to and dismissive of the media he doesn’t like.

    I’m going to enjoy the next 13 days

  31. Key quote in Fairfax article on Ipsos:
    “The three biggest changes in the Ipsos survey, all of them outside the margin of error, were the increase in Mr Morrison’s disapproval rating, the increase in Mr Shorten’s approval rating and the increase in Mr Shorten’s standing as preferred prime minister.”

    The rest is noise. And Clive Palmer at 3% can forget a Senate spot.

  32. Crows v Dockers looks like a bit of an arm wrestle at the moment. Nearly 3/4 time and only 46 points score in total. Maybe the first drawn match for quite a while.

    #SportOnPB

  34. There might be a chance that the Greens vote could increase a fair bit come election day and every senator standing be re-elected. Since climate change is an existentialist issue among many 18-24 year old voters.

  35. I think that the Space Invader must be out on a headland somewhere looking for the Tampa.

    I unfortunately suspect that there might even be some in that camp that are hoping that something evil and nasty might happen between now and the 18th.

  36. GRN 14 (+1)…hilarious
    All this polling shows is how inaccurate it is
    On this green vote Newspoll will have Labor 53/ 47

  37. Those I associate with refer to the team Shorten has around him

    And they are people changing their vote to Labor at this election – having arrived at that decision some time ago and for a raft of diverse reasons

    They are the reason the Liberals do not have a “safe” seat in wider Melbourne

  41. That 40-45 PPM will be beginning to f*#k with Scrott’s head. “The unravelling” May be beginning!

  42. Green vote in Ipsos is a joke because Greens highest vote was 11.76% in 2010. Greens are not making noises they will be aiming for a record vote at this election and are content with holding the seats they have got. 13% would be a record for the Greens.

  44. Key quote in Fairfax article on Ipsos:
    “The three biggest changes in the Ipsos survey, all of them outside the margin of error, were the increase in Mr Morrison’s disapproval rating, the increase in Mr Shorten’s approval rating and the increase in Mr Shorten’s standing as preferred prime minister.”

    Let’s see if there are comparable changes in Newspoll.

  45. Crows v Dockers looks like a bit of an arm wrestle at the moment. Nearly 3/4 time and only 46 points score in total. Maybe the first drawn match for quite a while.

    #SportOnPB

    You convinced me, I was waiting for the A league elim, but wasn’t in the mood to #amwriting, had done enough clearing / tidying for the day, the shockers and the crows it is, but who to hope loses!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    #badsportsonPD

  49. David Crowe :

    The primary vote support for the Greens rose from 13 to 14 per cent over the past month, Ipsos found. The polling firm has consistently recorded higher primary votes for the Greens compared to other published polls and the party’s 10 per cent primary vote at the last election.

    Shorter Crowe

    greens 14 %, LOL

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