Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.
Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.
Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.
Further reading on Poll Bludger:
• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.
• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.
• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.
My daughters are more than a little upset that the largely male parliamentary Liberal Party are launching their election campaign on Sunday…Mother’s Day
_____
They want as few people as possible to be watching the debacle.
ltep @ #732 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:11 pm
Why the hell not?
“Has he given up “flogging” the dead dog issue from yesterday??”
Yeah, but he’s still flogging a dead horse. 🙂
Re; Cyber bulling.
Having come across as a “Space Invading” bully, one can expect M’s minders have shaken the image tree to see what falls out.
It’s a good ploy; ‘He’s not a bully….. honest he’s not.’
BK:
True.
Dave from Wagga,
Cold start for you if you’re handing out HTVs tomorrow and for the rest of this week, comrade! 😯
I can imagine the Liberal launch will be as hokey as all getout on Mothers Day. 🙄
Some great lines from Keating:
“Keating: There’s the prime minister walking around with a lump of coal. Coal is a fossil. The prime minister is a fossil himself, a fossil with a baseball cap, but a fossil. ”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/05/federal-election-2019-labor-launch-coalition-sunday-politics-live?page=with:block-5cce5f9b8f086f179813b5ed#liveblog-navigation
As for the Liberal’s launch on mother’s day, what better way for the Liberals to show that their (male of course) leaders really care about the women of the country, and will take time to consider them when the men are making their important decisions on how to run the country. The women just need to trust the Liberals. Like Barnaby’s wife. See how well that turned out.
Based on the Ghosts of Elections Past, I would venture that Newspoll can be relied upon, at the end of the election campaign, to tout that the “gap is closing closing” but the “election is too close to call”. As someone pointed out this morning, this a way in which polling outfits never get it wrong……
C@t:
As PvO said in his news report, you can only imagine what the families of the mostly male MPs in the Liberal party would be feeling about their spouses being away from home on Mother’s Day.
Katharine Murphy
@murpharoo
·
3h
Paul Keating has just described Scott Morrison as a fossil in a baseball cap #ausvotes
Confessions @ #756 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:46 pm
Now, that’s when the smiles will really be forced!
Just had a yarn with a (Liberal voting slightly racist) mate in nearby Albury (Farrer).
He assures me that Sussan Ley is toast.
Kevin Mack will win in a canter.
Newspoll & Essential 50/50
Ipsos 51/49 to ALP
Right now, it feels much like the recent Victorian election two weeks out. At that point there was limited polling but bits and pieces of seat polling that suggested the Libs narrow path to victory, via the four Frankston line seats, might be a chance. Come election night, those seats had swings to the ALP around 10% and the result was settled very early on.
Now we have the narrow path for the Libs of dragging back Indi and Wentworth, snagging a couple of seats from Labor and limiting losses elsewhere. On a seat by seat basis it’s plausible but in aggregate it’s a long shot.
On the night I’m expecting we’ll find that this scenario was way of the money and the likely result will be the ALP with a low 80’s seat count. Maybe with some extra joy from seeing Abbott and/or Hunt given a pink slip….. Still, it’s going to be a long two weeks.
“As PvO said in his news report, you can only imagine what the families of the mostly male MPs in the Liberal party would be feeling about their spouses being away from home on Mother’s Day.”
How would they be feeling? Mostly relief and joy, with maybe just a bit of concern about which of their staff they are rooting while they are away.
It is nonsensical to talk of a Future Fund in which the federal government “saves up” for the spending that the NDIS will need in the future.
The constraint on the federal government’s spending is the availability of real resources that are for sale in its own currency. There is no budget or revenue or financial constraint on the federal government when it makes payments in Australian dollars.
There is no need to set up a Future Fund that supposedly (but doesn’t really) hoard or stockpile Australian dollars. The Australian Government cannot stockpile its own currency. It spends its currency into the non-government sector thousands of times per day by crediting Exchange Settlement Accounts at its central bank. It deletes some of its currency out of existence thousands of times per day by debiting Exchange Settlement Accounts at its central bank. That is how our monetary system works.
Setting up an account at the central bank, calling it an NDIS Future Fund, and keystroking a number into it that will supposedly be “set aside” for future spending into the non-government sector is an accounting smokescreen.
We need to help the public understand that the federal government’s financial position is nothing like that of a household or a firm or a state government or a local government.
Work To Rule @ #765 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:50 pm
WTR The Vic election didnt have Palmer’s preferences in the mix. Do you see that having an effect?
“Having to resort to showing your team rather than your leader isn’t usually a good sign.”
lol, pisstake I’m assuming because in this election having a team is quite unique?
Does anyone have any info on Wagga Wagga?
Soc
‘Our number one national policy issue?’
Have Morrison got another one? He nominated at least two items as ‘most important issue of the campaign’ during the last debate.
Another classic from the great man, PJK, today:
“The economy is there for society. The Liberals have nothing to offer. You know, I’m surprised how threadbare their program is. If you look, there is no panorama. There’s no vista. There’s no shape… And what’s their plea? Trickle down economics and a tax cut five years away.”
I can’t think of any reason why liberals have their launch campaign on Mother’s Day since their policies are anti females anti mothers anti single mothers.
Zoidlord @ #769 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:57 pm
$ $ $
They get to spend more taxpayers’ money by having it that late.
Because elections, like it or not are largely seen by the voting public (at least the ones that matter) as a competition between the leaders. That Labor are resorting to pointing to their team is a sign that their research is probably showing Shorten is a liability. Pointing to teams has been done by losing sides plenty of times – such as Hayden highlighting Bob Hawke and Wran in the 1980 election.
C@t the other reason why the Liberals hold their launch late is to avoid being caught out lying on some big numbers. Which makes you wonder what they are up to this time.
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 5:55 pm
Does anyone have any info on Wagga Wagga?
Yes.
Wagga Wagga is fucking awesome.
Isn’t it pretty standard to do that? I mean, if they were just showing off other figures and keeping Shorten hidden it would be concerning but the “leader has a great team they work with” is such a generic election trope that I can’t see how you could read anything into it…
Every now and again, we’d try and schedule an ALP policy committee meeting on Mother’s Day. And when we did, the men on the committee told us very firmly to reschedule, because they wouldn’t be there.
Dave I mean how is the election going in Wagga Wagga Wagga Wagga?
Stephen Spencer
@sspencer_63
Party led entirely by blokes who conspired to destroy the leadership ambitions of their most respected woman, to hold party launch on …. Mother’s Day! You couldn’t make this up.
Quote Tweet
Peter van Onselen
@vanOnselenP
· 41m
My daughters are more than a little upset that the largely male parliamentary Liberal Party are launching their election campaign on Sunday…Mother’s Day
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 5:41 pm
I read earlier that there was still doubt about the venue.
I suggest they have it at Kirrabilli House sitting at the dining table have Mother’s Day lunch.
Morrison could continue to demonstrate how he is just an average citizen with the launch taking the form of a conversation over lunch with Jen and the kids.
The Liberal cabinet members could be rolled out of protection for guest appearances where they could contribute on their portfolios.
The one negative I see is that he wouldn’t be able to wear a cap at the table. 🙂
Cat
“And what’s their plea? Trickle down economics and a tax cut five years away.”
Apart from being a great line this is also a great attack. Because it reminds everyone that they have to reelect ScumMo TWICE more before they get the tax cut he is promising. I’m sure most people are most aware of that.
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
3m3 minutes ago
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#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (+1) ALP 52 (-1)
IPSOS 52-48 to ALP
Ipsos 52 48 according to toolman on nine news.
Bill Shorten’s PPM figures also up to 40% cf Morrison’s 45%!
Up 5% for Bill.
Breaking news
The latest newspoll as just been released and as our great LNP leading 52/48
So our great LNP are going to win the May 18 election and Morrison will be PM for another three years
Ipsos (yeah I know) 52-48 Labor
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
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#Ipsos Poll Morrison: Approve 47 (-1) Disapprove 44 (+5) #auspol
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GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
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#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 33 (-1) GRN 14 (+1) ON 5 (0) UAP 3 #auspol
Ah Itep – you’re such a little dark cloud 😉
But trying to win government is tough and you need to neutralise as many perceived weaknesses as you can.
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
Following Following @GhostWhoVotes
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#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 33 (-1) GRN 14 (+1) ON 5 (0) UAP 3 #auspol
Cud Chewer @ #772 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 6:01 pm
I think we’ll find out in Chris Bowen’s first Treasury update, Cud.
Cud,
Michael McCormack will be re-elected.
Unlike nearby Farrer we don’t have the option of a credible indie.
Other than that Wagga has become very cosmopolitan and multicultural in the 16 years that I have lived here since moving out of Sydney (Hurstville).
Nice result for Labor.
BH @ #768 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:53 pm
Not expecting the same definitive result as the Vic election. I think there will be a lot of noise “too early to say” in the first couple of hours of the count. Palmer prefs are probably a net positive – hard to say what price they’ll pay from voters in the centre.
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
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#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Morrison 45 (-1) Shorten 40 (+5) #auspol
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GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
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#Ipsos Poll Shorten: Approve 40 (+4) Disapprove 51 (0) #auspol
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ltep
Shush. It’s over. Has been for two years.
Remember the famous picture of Abbott with senior colleagues from the 2013 election (the one people often refer to, in order to point out how many of that team are now gone.) Nobody, for a second, saw that as a portent that the Coalition were in trouble…
I’ll give you the argument that the team trope can be used to supplement a leader with low ratings or has an image of inexperience. But that doesn’t mean they’re losing or it’s a bad sign, just that they’re self-aware of shortcomings.
Does the guy who pushes the numbers out for Ipsos to the media have the hots for The Greens!?! 14%! 😆