Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.
Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.
Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.
Further reading on Poll Bludger:
• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.
• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.
• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.
Late Riser
Put me down for Labor 53 in both polls please
Mick
It doesn’t sound as if they were polling for the result. The poll was the message
It ain’t push polling, though, Mick, it’s SKEW polling.
Push polling is a term that should only be used for when many more people are called than needed for a sample in order to spread scurrilous rumours about a candidate. Spreading rumours is the aim, not the poll itself.
“Libs to dig up Bob Menzies for their launch.”
well, the desicated coconut looks as though he’s spent some time at the embalmers of late. Laser eye surgery and botox makes him look even more like a bewildered tortoise.
Pedant, re Menzies’ cremation, well they could still stick him in a Milo tin at put him on the podium.
You won’t see Malcolm at the LNP launch. It takes at least 2-3 years for stab wounds to even begin to heal fully.
I am a little surprised we have not seen a Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model during this campaign given its relative success in the UK 2017 campaign by YouGov.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works
The above link gives potted methodology which notes a 50,000 weekly sample in the UK 2017 Yougov model.
Perhaps not a large enough sample size is possible in Australia?
I hope people don’t fall for the bullshit tactics. How desperate must the LNP be to try and manipulate the voters through push polling? Even the dickheads on Sky News admitted Forde will be the first seat to go on election night.
The launch is the lead story on the SMH: https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-pledges-tax-breaks-for-small-business-and-crackdown-on-multinationals-at-campaign-launch-20190505-p51k8k.html
Paul Keating is on second: https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/election-2019-labor-campaign-launch-live-bill-shorten-rallies-party-faithful-20190505-p51k6s.html
The Telecrap leads with the NRL and celebrity trivia, with the launch some way down. Headline and first para look balanced but it will be a different story tomorrow I’m sure.
“Pedant, re Menzies’ cremation, well they could still stick him in a Milo tin at put him on the podium.”
,…..and he’d still have more electorate appeal that ScuMo and Abbott combined.
Adrian Beaumont
With questions like those do you think they are interested in the result. Might be positive push polling but it is still push polling.
Due to delayed release, Newspoll is probably 53/47, essential is probably 53/47 also…
“See what I mean about Firefox? Just another bitter Green. Can’t stand the thought of Labor unity and grown-ups resolving their differences. And he’s becoming a nath clone with his piss poor attempts at condescending comments attached to photos of Labor Party luminaries. People who’ve achieved more in their lifetimes than Firefox and The Greens MPs who he drools over, will achieve in 100 lifetimes.
Sad. And pathetic. But then again, that’s all these people have. Derision aimed at people much more substantial than them.”
***
Good on ya, C@t. Keep up those personal attacks on me. It’s funny that you go on about “adults in the room” after suggesting people put their bodily excretions into electric cars. What a joke.
I can see that you’re furious about how successful the Greens have been. You’ve made that painfully obvious.
HughB Pommy Bastard says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 4:41 pm
Could be dangerous!
Little Jonnie might want a hot Milo before his afternoon nap.
Re poll sizes, the margin of error, for 2PP and major party primaries:
500: 4.5%
1,000: 3.2%
2,000: 2.2%
10,000: 1.0%
50,000: 0.4%
Tomorrow’s media, radio and breakfast TV will be dominated by polling results. The ALP launch will be old news. Such is the political dynamic these days.
If either Newspoll or IPOS have a 49/51 or even an unlikely 50/50 it’s sure to cause a frenzy. If it’s drifted back to the norm, it will be all about ScoMo’s ordinary week and the near impossible task ahead.
Steve777 @ #715 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 4:47 pm
100/sqrt(N) percent, where N is sample size
We have to keep in mind that few voters would have watched the launch. They’ll get it filtered by their media outlet of choice, for a large proportion The Australian, the Daily Rupert or commercial TV and Radio.
Good on ya, C@t. Keep up those personal attacks on me. It’s funny that you go on about “adults in the room” after suggesting people put their bodily excretions into electric cars. What a joke.
I can see that you’re furious about how successful the Greens have been. You’ve made that painfully obvious.
I see you lack a sense of humour as well, Firefox. The joke I made to imacca is obviously not one for the po-faced Greens like you, that’s for sure!
And The Greens successful? Now THAT is hilarious! 😆
Al Pal and Steve777
You have given your reasons; make your predictions.
Tom @ #625 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
If you believe that, you’ve never heard of an Australian company called Nearmap (ASX code NEA). Their technology does show this type of physical feature.
DISCLOSURE – I hold shares in NEA. I purchased them on 6/11/2017 for $0.647 (including brokerage).
As at close of trade on 3/5/2019 they were valued at $3.72. As a company still in “growth” phase, they’ve yet to pay a dividend, but have generated a total return (to me, on paper at least) of 475.01% (or 222.68% per annum).
As I’ve stated many times on this site, if you want to find companies that rise in value many times, you have to look outside the ASX200, and often outside the much bigger All Ordinaries Index.
The sour grapes that Gillard and Rudd could have displayed, but didn’t, and appeared quite civil with one another is one thing, but the hatred that the Libs came out with when Gough and Mal F were actually able to act like gentlemen in later years shows there is now, no such thing in the Liberal party as a “small l” Liberal.
The swing to the right for the Liberal party into more extreme views is a real worry for our democracy. It is Labor voters who should be concerned with the death of civilization as we know it at the hands of these extremist rather than they worry about a democratic Labor party – and it might be said, to a lesser degree, the Greens.
The battle the Big Name Liberals (Tony Abbott front and centre) are having with independents says it all I guess.
Dog’s Breakfast @ #643 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:54 pm
😆
Re: Rudd/Gillard, most of us don’t aspire to a ‘public life’ and I guess their lives are very much beholden to public perceptions. Maybe in some parallel universe or down the track a very long way, they will share a personal relationship but for now they remain civil and to all intents and purposes , a cordially friendly image in public. There is nothing to be gained by acrimony and as said by others before, they have more to gain through being well behaved members of the ‘Labor Family’ that would be strongly underpinned by their achievements for Labor and the country in the past.
poroti @ #666 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 2:12 pm
I stand corrected.
Dan, just a temporary measure!
Steve777 @ #677 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 2:18 pm
Ditto with poroti’s correction.
I made my prediction a couple of days of and will stick with them: 51-49 ALP in Newspoll and any other poll that comes out in the next couple of days.
Newspoll. 48/52
IPSOS 47/53
The “Liberal” Party of today can not dig up Menzies.
Menzies INCREASED Company and Personal Tax rates and INCREASED the Pension.
I have the front page with that headline.
No doubt Turnbull, Nelson, Hewson, Costello (if he is not too busy saving himself from Bastiaan, Sukkar and their tribal enemies in what remains of the Victorian Division of the “Liberal” Party) et al will be at the “Liberal” Party launch – as would have been John Gorton and Malcolm Fraser.
Perhaps they can roll out Billy McMahon to keep the Divisive Dwarf company.
I wonder if the Parakeet of High Fashion, Bishop, will be in attendance.
No doubt the likes of Pyne and O’Dwyer will be because they are still drawing their Minister’s entitlements – for the next 13 days
So who replaces all those leaving?
Dysfunctional
Just saw a new Labor add emphasising a fair go. Noteable for its use of at least 5-6 frontbenchers and Shorten , very positive, full of policy and no negativity. The contrast is stark.
Having to resort to showing your team rather than your leader isn’t usually a good sign.
I was out for the afternoon and just got back to catch up on the Labor campaign launch and policy. Fantastic! From Penny Wong’s warm up speech to Keating’s serve to the spy agency kooks afterwards, the campaign launch was great, and so positive. Bill was in his element. Yet for all the good words, the photo of Keating, Rudd, Gillard, together with State leaders all sitting together in support, was priceless. I’d love to see the looks on the faces of Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison, if you could even get them to agree to be in the same room.
Then my gaze turned to reporting of ScumMo’s afternoon speech. WTF? Cyber bullying? Our number one national policy issue? I thought the coalition had stopped that by strangling the capacity of the NBN so badly that teenagers will only be able to send text messages.
I’d really like to see some polls after this. We have a government that is acting like an opposition and an opposition that is acting like a government.
Dogs Breakfast
I understand that the next coalition add will feature ScumMo standing in front of a whiteboard, with Michaela Cash standing behind the whiteboard. Alexandra Downer will also be featured, standing behind a large cheque.
ltep says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 5:11 pm
Yep, especially when your opponent doesn’t have one.
It just looks like you’re rubbing their noses in it. 🙂
WTF? Cyber bullying? Our number one national policy issue?
ScoMo was trying to cast about for something, anything, that didn’t involve tax.
PBers are giving positive vibes. It’s all about the vibe!
ScoMo’s two biggest non-policy (sans policy) setbacks have been:
The ‘speaking in tongues’ church image. Religion is fine. Just keep it to yourself.
Space invaders. Nobody likes a bully, especially women.
I’m confident enough to purchase popcorn for the big night.
Julia Gillard won’t be appointed GG and it’s doubtful if she’d want it. Maybe she could be in the running for President of the Commonwealth of Australia after a distinguished 20 or so years of a post-politics career.
“Having to resort to showing your team rather than your leader isn’t usually a good sign.”
Worse is only showing your leader and treasurer because the rest of your team are electorally reviled c@#s.
Labor has such a great team, they’d be mad not to showcase them. Libs are such a basket case that they can’t show ‘the team’ because it does not exist.
Bushfire Bill says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 5:17 pm
WTF? Cyber bullying? Our number one national policy issue?
ScoMo was trying to cast about for something, anything, that didn’t involve tax.
———————————————
Has he given up “flogging” the dead dog issue from yesterday??
Libs back out to $4.25 on sportsbet. Seems like punters are expecting movement back to 52 or 53 for labor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
PvO’s news report.
https://twitter.com/10NewsFirst/status/1124935445375143936
ltep @ #730 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:11 pm
What ,didn’t Shorten appear at the campaign launch ?
Bill
While we are on the subject of crazy, i.e. the political though of Mr Scott Morrison, I still cannot fathom their attacks on Labor either. It seems to be “Fear what Labor spending will do to the economy because they are the ones who are NOT passing on all the tax cuts”. WTF 2?
I trust the Liberals do understand that cutting tax increases government debt? It is quite absurd to criticise Labor for BOTH not cutting taxes/reforming tax loopholes, AND not being able to afford their own policies. So Labor will both raise more tax revenue than the Libs and yet still have greater risk of not funding their policies? Really? The tax cuts, and the threat of a public debt blowout, is under the Liberal, Liberal, Liberal,Liberal, Liberal party, as Barnaby would say.
Up North @5:21
“Has he given up “flogging” the dead dog issue from yesterday??”
Unlikely. Tomorrow the L/NP/Murdoch Coalition will be pushing the “big taxing – big taxing” promises “we can’t afford”, with business “leaders” bleating that they’ll have to sack everyone if they have to pay more (or any) tax. Fake costings will appear “Shorten’s promises to cost $8,000 trillion. Your taxes to go up 3000%.”
Sure, property speculators, corporate executives and big shareholders will be starving in the streets.
“Has he given up “flogging” the dead dog issue from yesterday??”
dead dog story has died, and it seems the media has decided that a desperate PM speaking out of his rectum is not newsworthy.
ltep says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 5:11 pm
Having to resort to showing your team rather than your leader isn’t usually a good sign.
au contraire
You can tell when a government has come to the end. All but the leader is in witness protections.
Bad timing, or a deliberate strategy to announced some hokey, patronising policies aimed at women? And I just got door-knocked by the Labor candidate for this electorate. First. Time. Ever!
The Labor “team” has yet to be proved in office. The Liberal one has essentially disintegrated………The Murdoch/Stokes Cheer Squad is still battling for them with the rusted-on 36% or 37% who want the LNP, and will do so until the death knock I suppose.
Bishop, Turnbull, Pyne and others who could have put on a show are non-persons now. Meanwhile, Dutton is poison south of the border, and the likes of Cash have to keep their mouths shut. Porter, of course, is battling to just keep his seat…………………Meanwhile the Nationals are all but invisible while Joyce gone into contemplative silence. Of course, a vote for Scotty is a a vote for Clive……………..