YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan

Seat polls find nothing in it in Perth’s marginals, Labor and Liberal alike.

Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.

Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.

Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.

Further reading on Poll Bludger:

• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.

• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.

• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  1. I actually think the “welcome back Kevvie” act at the national conference was enough to placate Rudd. I doubt Julia holds overt grudges – too gracious for that. Thus, the coming together of Gillard and Rudd was probably not as painful as some might think.

    Plus, the affect of rapprochement on the party “unity” platform will resonate through the party as well. Some of the anti-Shorten sentiment is based on what people saw as his involvement with the downfall of both Rudd and Gillard. If they are both their to support Shorten, that should work to soften some of that residual angst.

  3. Re Liberal ex-PM’s, we’ve got Turnbull, Abbott and Howard. That’s it. The other Malcolm also left a few years ago. We’ll see Howard at their launch. Abbott might be in the audience. Malcolm? Likely has engagements elsewhere.

  5. Shorten is going to push for Rudd to be U.N Gen Sec, and for Gillard to be GG. That’s why they are making nice.

  7. Fozzie Logic @ #646 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 3:58 pm

    Is newspoll that bad??

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I’ve often thought if it was really good for the ALP,. it would be more “oh bugger” than “Wow!!” with PvO’s lean towards the Libs, but I must say, I don’t think he is enamoured with the current mob.

  8. Kim Jong-un Shot a Rocket? He Wants to Talk

    President Trump should deny him the privilege.

    A brief period of measured hope had followed the meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, in Singapore last June. But Saturday’s provocation leaves no doubt that, once again, the government in Pyongyang is gradually, and very deliberately, escalating tensions to build up its leverage with the United States — this time with a view to resetting the terms of stalled negotiations.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/04/opinion/north-korea-test-nuclear-talks-sanctions.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

  12. My pick: Newspoll 50-50, Ipsos 51-49 to Labor.

    Followed by a (yet another) week of endless Coalition-fluffing and Labor-bashing by the corrupt media barons. After all, it’s working so far!

  15. Just got polled for Reachtel in Forde. I’m guessing it was commissioned by the Tories based on the push poll questioning. They must be in real strife in QLD. Needless to say Des Hardman ALP will be getting my vote!

  17. The one other pledge that would have been nice would be not to deal with any corporation or entity with accounts in any of the well know tax havens (E.g Cayman Islands etc.).
    And yes, that includes the Australian Future Fund.

  19. “Would it have looked any different if the MSM had been holding the cameras?”

    True, it probably would’ve been even more of an establishment orgy than it was already.

    “Maybe that’s why the Green launch was poorly covered, they expect people to take an interest without doing anything to assist.

    Also your social media remarks about promoting the event tend to suggest how ineffective it is in getting your message beyond your clique.”

    You’re right, nobody uses social media in 2019. Silly Greens! All the voters they’re targeting are glued to their televisions or have their heads buried in Murdoch tabloids.

  23. Mick @ #665 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 4:11 pm

    Just got polled for Reachtel in Forde. I’m guessing it was commissioned by the Tories based on the push poll questioning. They must be in real strife in QLD. Needless to say Des Hardman ALP will be getting my vote!

    What’s the point of push polling for internal polling, it’s only point is to broadcast the results… 😡

  24. My feeling on the ground in Forde is that we will win it 54-46 2PP. We have a lot of union reps in the area door knocking and they have promised to put Bert last. The change the rules campaign has been very effective in turning votes.

  26. nath says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 4:03 pm

    Shorten is going to push for Rudd to be U.N Gen Sec, and for Gillard to be GG. That’s why they are making nice.

    That would be excellent if it happened because it would mean a Shorten Labor Government would have been in power for a very long time. 🙂

  27. Dan Gulberry @4:08
    “Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, (repeat for 60 minutes)”

    Mixed in with “Bill Shorten Bill Shorten…” and “boats boats boats…”, some made up numbers, “Labor debt”, “union thugs”…

  30. “Look, Kevvy, little Billy Shorten is on stage! Remember how he knifed both of us? Ah those were the days!”

    Rudd is literally going cross-eyed from the strain of having to force his mouth onto a smile hahahaha

  33. Questions were “Do you think the LNP will deliver a strong economy for all Australians? Blah blah blah. Will you consider preferencing Palmer ahead of ONP? Has Bert Van Manen delivered on his promise for better roads funding?” All bullshit questions to confuse your responses.

  36. jenauthor @ 3:59pm

    I haven’t been a Shorten fan since Beaconsfield but I agree with your comments. I was impressed with Shorten’s Labor rally in Reid on April 14th. More so today with the campaign launch. My opinion on Shorten now is “Cometh the hour, cometh the man”. The plethora of excellent policy announcements and the strong team that he has assembled to ensure these policies are enacted reminds me of the 1972 “It’s Time” campaign. I stand corrected and I am opening a humble pie factory. I hope that Australia has Labor governments over the next decade to rectify the wrecking and missed opportunities of the last six years.

  37. See what I mean about Firefox? Just another bitter Green. Can’t stand the thought of Labor unity and grown-ups resolving their differences. And he’s becoming a nath clone with his piss poor attempts at condescending comments attached to photos of Labor Party luminaries. People who’ve achieved more in their lifetimes than Firefox and The Greens MPs who he drools over, will achieve in 100 lifetimes.

    Sad. And pathetic. But then again, that’s all these people have. Derision aimed at people much more substantial than them.

  38. Firefox
    “Look, Kevvy, little Billy Shorten is on stage! Remember how he knifed both of us? Ah those were the days!”
    Are you suffering from the same mental problem nath has.?

  41. Before. Then at the end it was “considering your answers to the previous questions…….who will be receiving your first preference vote?”. Absolute best Example of push polling I’ve seen by a political party ever. I smell desperation in the Tories. They’re on a hiding to nothing! Get on Labor to win Forde! Now paying $1.36.

  44. ‘push-polling’ isn’t really polling at all – the aim is not really to analyze or publish the results.

    The act of ‘surveying’ using the kinds of leading questions is intended itself to be the political marketing technique. The survey ‘results’ in a ‘push-poll’ are irrelevant.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

  45. Firefox says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 4:13 pm

    “Would it have looked any different if the MSM had been holding the cameras?”

    True, it probably would’ve been even more of an establishment orgy than it was already.

    “Maybe that’s why the Green launch was poorly covered, they expect people to take an interest without doing anything to assist.

    Also your social media remarks about promoting the event tend to suggest how ineffective it is in getting your message beyond your clique.”

    You’re right, nobody uses social media in 2019. Silly Greens! All the voters they’re targeting are glued to their televisions or have their heads buried in Murdoch tabloids.

    The point was that few people knew the launch was on, you came back with how the Greens promoted it on social media.

    So while Green supporters and others who follow those accounts may have been aware, the vast majority of the population who don’t would have remained completely oblivious to the fact. 🙂

  46. Poor Firefox and Nath.

    It looks as if Gillard and Rudd have got to a point in life when they swap stories about the old wars, remembering what they did together more than the battles.

  49. Seeing as how all the snowflakes in The Greens have Blocked me on social media I don’t really know how I could have found out about their campaign launch either! 😀

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