Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.
Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.
Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.
Further reading on Poll Bludger:
• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.
• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.
• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.
You’re a salty weirdo.
Consistent, ineffective but occasionally amusing.
Crackdown on dodgy royalty payments by multinationals.
“Funny how ALP unity became a thing once Shorten became leader. LMFAO.”
Now there is a truly idiotic statement. When Shorten became leader the BIGGEST issue that needed to be dealt with was post RGR war ALP unity. He’s dealt with that very well. May seem funny to you nath, but thats only because you are a moron.
I have to turn it off now. The voice is just too painful.
The war chest unlocked
Making a real difference
nath says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 12:59 pm
How did he create instability?
The dropped $14b from public schools will be put back.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery
says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:03 pm
nath says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 12:59 pm
…
It’s funny because he created the instability. Then once leader, called for unity.
How did he create instability?
_______________________
Rolling Rudd for Gillard, then rolling Gillard for Rudd.
Yes!!!!!!
Free Education!!!!!!!!
Good idea nath. See ya later.
nath is a faction warrior. Someone to be ignored.
Combating climate change would have been a massive winner for Labor, if something like the Green New Deal proposed by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the United States was developed. Essentially it would be a massive investment in infrastructure and developing new Green Industries. It would boost the economy, along with creating a lot of new Green, well paying, permanent jobs. It would be popular in regions, even in Central Queensland since unemployment is a major issue in that region. Plus it would really rally the Millennials and Generation Z, Labor’s primary vote would go well into the 40’s and probably up to 80% for 18-24 year old voters.
Although this would be funded by implementing the unorthodox Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) of economics and result in a massive increase in the National Debt.
How can the govt top this when they don’t have the revenue measures to pay for it all?
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #403 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:03 pm
He’s trying to allude to the leadership coups being ALL Bill’s work.
Restoration of the public TAFE.
nath @ #402 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:02 pm
Know you know how we feel, and we can’t even hear you.
nath:
You coulda been a contender …
Gary says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:05 pm
nath is a faction warrior. Someone to be ignored.
The question is,which ministers office does he post from?
E. G. Theodore
says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:06 pm
nath:
I think I’ve made an excellent case against Shorten, from his dodgy deals, back stabbing to power, snot eating, Napoleon hero worship, faux working class mythology. I was magnificent!
You coulda been a contender …
__________________
Maybe I still am.
$500m to upgrade ED’s
adrian @ #413 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:06 pm
😹
Gary says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:05 pm
nath is a faction warrior. Someone to be ignored.
———————————
A faction of one and he does not get on too well with himself. Although he does play with himself a bit.
frednk @ #415 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:07 pm
Liberal campaign HQ. He’s only off now to work on the Liberal attack memes, ready to go as soon as Bill stops speaking.
Come across any more of those ‘muslim call to prayer towers’ yet c@t? 🙂
$6 Million to KidsHelpline. 🙂
Lol! Kids Help Line reference tied back to the Sky debate night. Very good framing of that event.
nath says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:04 pm
But the instability existed before those events.
And he was the only player was he?
Your meme only works if you simplify a complex situation down to a ridiculously simple one.
Maybe an indication of how your mind is able to function.
This is just destroying the LNP.
Not even over.
How can Morrison fill 60 minutes of launch with just trickle down economics?
Oh and Labor Launch. It’s raining in Sydney.
This reminds me of 2007 when Labor just hit all those home runs with just about everything they announced, making the coalition govt look stale and out of ideas. It feels the same now.
‘BK says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:14 pm
How can Morrison fill 60 minutes of launch with just trickle down economics?’
Spittle mit smirks?
…For real?
Matthew 7:5, pal.
Refunding/restoring public schools and TAFE.
Now that’s future building.
🙂 🙂 🙂
Fess
Nah. I will defer to Labor people from the time. To me it sounds like restoring Whitlam’s Labor vision. Never ever lost under Labor.
“Not having watched Sky News for some years now, I am surprised at the tone of their commentary. Speers, Gilbert and the woman are talking as if Labor has this election all sewn up.”
Those three (the woman you refer to is Laura Jayes) are pretty much all that remains of Sky’s serious commentators. Sky has always quite good at their rolling coverage of events when their Canberra team cover them. Speers and Gilbert are exceptionally good at it and have been doing it for decades. It’s the far right nutters that come on after 6pm most days that have destroyed the channel’s credibility and turned it into a Murdoch propaganda outlet.
Malcolm Turnbull, a name you’ll only ever hear at a Labor event.
Bill Shorten: ‘When the Coalition say that Australia can’t afford it, they mean, you don’t deserve it!’
Tristo says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:05 pm
You’d think you’d be able come up with something original and targeted at Australia, instead of blindly jumping on a popular meme from the U.S.
This will be huge.
Climate policy.
Kieran Gilbert
Verified account @Kieran_Gilbert
3m3 minutes ago
Bill Shorten references Malcolm Turnbull “a name you’ll only hear at a Labor event” #AUSVote2019
0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
Ok, its a set piece in front of the most friendly audience possible.
Shorten and the Team nail it anyway. 🙂
Bill really does warm to his public speaking doesn’t he.
Starts a bit low key then really ramps it up.
Stirring stuff.
That was Shorten’s best ever public speech.
It started off a bit flat, but the crescendo was excellent.
Hard to fault Shorten’s address.
Interesting regarding climate policy.
An Open Book for new legislation
Well that was very good. It reminded me so much of 2007 when Labor was able to make the coalition govt look out of touch and stale by hoovering up all the low hanging fruit of missed opportunities, and throwing in some bold policy announcements as well.
Labor will not back off.
They won’t run, they will fight – this is Labor – This is how it should be!
Waiting for Rex to chime in with his “nothing on Newstart” tut tutting.