Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.
Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.
Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.
Further reading on Poll Bludger:
• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.
• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.
• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.
Interesting no polling of WA’s fourth of its ‘three most marginal seats’ – Hasluck. Now why would that be?
This is legit depressing. How can the Liberals still be polling this well! I can only hope things swing enough later in the campaign to push these over the line.
Hmmm,
Seat polls are notoriously inaccurate.
Sample sizes ~500 each; no statement re methodology.
Do you know the MoE, William?
I suspect fairly large.
Keep going, grimace! Push Pearce over the line for Labor and get rid of the execrable Christian Porter!
Why no results for Andrew ‘White South African Farmers’ Hastie, either?
A few more Numbers on the Warringah poll, but no full primaries as yet
‘The polling was conducted on May 1. The result is worse for Mr Abbott than a Reachtel poll in February, also commissioned by GetUp, which had the veteran Liberal MP behind 54-46 after preferences were considered.
Mr Abbott’s primary vote remained the same in both polls at around 38 per cent. However it is well below the 51.6 per cent primary vote he snared at the 2016 election.
Some 35 per cent of respondents said climate change and the environment would help determine their vote – ahead of economic management at 27 per cent.
Of those who planned to vote for Ms Steggall, 89 per cent oppose the propose Adani coal mine.’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-getup-poll-shows-crash-in-support-for-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20190504-p51k3q.html
ABC remains the only news site that I can find with Morrison’s “true story” about someone shooting a Henderson supporter’s dog and placing the body below the sign in the supporter’s yard.
Original story in Herald-Sun was taken down soon after it was placed.
It’s clearly BS.
ABC reaches new depths of gullibility/laziness/complicity with this fake news.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-04/pm-condemns-targeting-of-candidates-in-federal-election-campaign/11080410
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
A Lonergan poll of 805 Warringah voters shows Mr Abbott trailing Ms Steggall 56-44 on a two party-preferred basis. GetUp is campaigning against Mr Abbott in Warringah, writes Nicole Hasham.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-getup-poll-shows-crash-in-support-for-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20190504-p51k3q.html
Today Bill Shorten will offer workers a $1500 wage gain from a tax plan designed to help employers grow, as he intensifies his pitch to voters on the economy in the final fortnight of the election campaign. He will outline an economic plan that could also create thousands of jobs from a $3.4 billion policy to give companies stronger incentives to invest in expansion and hire new staff.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/shorten-offers-a-wage-gain-and-a-jobs-boost-in-economic-pitch-20190504-p51k3t.html
And Katharine Murphy reveals that Shorten will use the official launch of Labor’s campaign today to unveil a $500m commitment to upgrade and expand emergency departments in public hospitals.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/05/bill-shorten-to-unveil-500m-hospital-funding-boost-in-campaign-launch
David Crowe reports that GetUp will spend up to $4 million intensifying its election advertising over the next two weeks as it officially endorses key independents on 800,000 how-to-vote cards.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/getup-to-spend-4-million-and-hand-out-800-000-how-to-vote-cards-20190503-p51jv4.html
And he writes that one of the biggest risks for Bill Shorten in this election campaign is that he allows Scott Morrison to cement the idea that only the Coalition can manage the economy. Crowe says it’s time for Shorten to escalate the economic fight
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/time-for-shorten-to-escalate-the-economic-fight-20190504-p51k43.html
Amanda Meade writes about Alex Turnbull’s spray against News Corp in which he said Pravda has better fact checking.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/03/pravda-had-better-fact-checking-alex-turnbull-takes-aim-at-news-corp
Matt Wade examines a big worldwide study of democracies that shows nearly six in 10 respondents in the US and Sweden, and over half in South Africa and France, believed their society was more in danger than it was 20 years ago because politics was so divisive. But the mood in Australia was quite different – it turns out we were relatively relaxed about political disagreement.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-healthy-difference-of-opinion-20190503-p51jy5.html
A Liberal senator is being promoted as the headline speaker for a group that wants to ban all mosques, has described Islam as a “destroyer of multi culturalism, diversity, democracy and liberty” and linked fires at European churches to the “immigration of incompatible people”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/04/liberal-senator-amanda-stoker-billed-as-speaker-for-group-that-wants-to-ban-mosques
“Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor”. This is a direct quote from the epic interview of Barnaby Joyce by Patricia Karvelas on ABC Radio last week. As is, “Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor”. Michael West reports on the unfolding #Watergate saga.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/barnaby-joyce-angus-taylor-and-the-80-million-question/
Considering the Coalition’s blatant dislike of the ABC, an unlikely win in the May election could lead to privatisation, writes Dr John Jiggens.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/privatising-the-abc-the-liberals-secret-agenda,12639
On the other hand Fergus Hunter writes that Labor is promising a new chapter for ABC free of ‘menacing’ threats and funding instability.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6106017/labor-promises-new-chapter-for-abc-free-of-menacing-threats-and-funding-instability/?cs=14350
Jacqui Maley believes that there is a new dynamic emerging in this election. She says the increasingly divergent dynamic of conservative middle Australia versus progressive, affluent Australia is here to stay, and politicians will need to get ever-nimbler to navigate it.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/beyond-middle-australia-a-new-dynamic-is-emerging-this-election-20190503-p51jqs.html
Extremist groups are presenting themselves as legitimate entities in a way that threatens to reshape Australian politics, writes Ben Smee.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/04/quite-frightening-the-far-right-fringe-of-the-election-campaign-is-mobilising
Nicole Hasham reports that the controversial economist Brian Fisher has accused the Morrison government of failing to act transparently over secret modelling it commissioned on the costs of climate action, saying even he has not seen the findings despite contributing to the work.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/government-sits-on-secret-modelling-of-climate-policy-costs-20190503-p51jtv.html
Paddy Manning tells us how a reckoning looms for a party fighting to hang on, the Greens.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/04/whither-the-greens-how-a-reckoning-looms-for-a-party-fighting-to-hang-on
Julie Szego opines that more than anything, this election is a women’s election.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/more-than-anything-this-election-is-a-women-s-election-20190503-p51jpw.html
The Department of Human Services has dropped a debt it raised against a Melbourne woman, who is challenging the Coalition’s robodebt program in the federal court. The nurse’s case hinges on the so-called “averaging” of a welfare recipient’s income over a period of time, which Legal Aid says leads Centrelink to miscalculate debts.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/05/centrelink-drops-womans-robodebt-after-she-mounts-court-challenge
Luke Henriques-Gomes writes that the outlook for the most disadvantaged jobseekers is bleak: only a quarter will find work each year. The privatised system is leaving them behind
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/04/punished-by-the-lucrative-welfare-to-work-industry-i-was-contemplating-suicide
Peter FitzSimons tells us how Alex Turnbull has been putting his money where his non-Liberal mouth is.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/alex-turnbull-puts-his-money-where-his-non-liberal-mouth-is-20190503-p51jx1.html
New wide-ranging data released by YouGov has revealed fascinating insights into the Australian identity, its place in the world, and its many contradictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/04/australians-accepting-of-migrants-but-negative-towards-islam-poll-finds
Nick Miller scathingly writes that it’s chaos out there in Brexitland, formerly known as England, which has just finished counting the casualties of a local election bloodbath. Well over a thousand local councillors lost their jobs as voters punished the Tories for their hapless, rudderless state.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/f-brexit-voter-anger-hits-home-as-tory-and-labour-councils-routed-20190504-p51k0i.html
A paranoid Trump criticised social media companies after Facebook banned a number of extremist figures, declaring that he was “monitoring and watching, closely!!”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-attacks-social-media-companies-after-facebook-bans-20190505-p51k5t.html
Cartoon Corner
From Matt Golding.
At the pre-polling location with Peter Broelman.
Zanetti’s right on song now!
Jon Kudelka visits the NAB.
Coalition policy development from Alan Moir
From the US
Maude Lynne
Very telling that Rupert shit sheets are not running with it. This is a bread and butter story for them.
Voters in Warringah need to do the right thing and Vote Tony Out on May 18.
Josh Frydenberg is the interviewee on Insiders today.
I can’t see Porter hanging on pearce with a primary vote of 40%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-05/refugee-caseworkers-in-png-told-to-falsify-reports-for-australia/11062160
Pearce and Swan polls are quite at odds with the betting market.
I can’t see Dead Dog Gate going anywhere. The alleged incident happened on April 19 and as there’s been no complaint since then, the claim will presumably die a natural death, like the unfortunate, if mythical, canine.
Interesting the crumbs Shorten has thrown the MSM re announcements at the campaign launch do not include much in the way of new spending.
There is a new revenue measure in the mix re Facebook and Google but no big spending pre launch tips from Shorten.
Today is the last real chance to showcase where the rest of the lolly from the negative gearing, franking credits etc etc savings are going to be spent so I would expect a couple of big announcements are locked and loaded and ready to go today.
I really do think pensioners will be well looked after today.
Scientology is using a front organisation Applied Scholastics to get its material into school curriculum.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-05/scientology-campaign-to-push-educational-materials-in-schools/11069666
And here’s an image that should scare the crap out of any parent.
Individual seat polls always need to be taken with a grain of salt. Forget them.
If the swing is on, Pearce and Swan, along with Hasluck are gone.
Muchos Gracias as always BK – that Golding on the Liberal campaign to date is a cracker
sprocket_
Thanks. That Golding effort on the magnificent team Morrison has behind him is a real cracker!
Confessions @ #10 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 6:58 am
The Vote Tony Out people have located an old campaign pledge from Abbott, circa 1994.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BxCLxD8JCnx/
slackboy71:
Where there’s life, there’s hope!
Now I’m depressed. I read that article:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/04/punished-by-the-lucrative-welfare-to-work-industry-i-was-contemplating-suicide
🙁
Australia has to vote the Coalition government out!
Fresh from campaigning for Tony Abbott – fat good that has done – Murdoch Troll-in-Chief Piis Ackerman has further disgraced himself and his organ grinder in New York by comparing Bill Shorten to Nazis…
Swamprat:
On the previous thread you said you were going to a gathering of the Together Party yesterday.
Would be interested in what you made of it. Had not heard of it until last week when an acquaintance told me that its founder had been at school with her son and that both she and her son had helped provide the necessary names/numbers required for registration by the AEC.
I suspect the tanking in Abbott’s polling numbers accelerated when this slug started knocking on doors in Warringah..
If we are to lose one of the two Sydney Independents I would rather have Steggal win than Phelps; just to get rid of the odious Abbott.
I hope Piers is still campaigning for Abbott. Nothing says ‘need for change’ more than a washed up tabloid hack being the face of the incumbent’s campaign.
Josh Frydenburg was on Insiders after the Budget, wasn’t he!?! So why have him on again so soon after that!?!
C@tmomma @ #32 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 8:04 am
Because he fudged all the numbers in the budget and they want to fact check him?
51-49 marginal seat polls with liberals leading…. Sample 500 with MOE maybe 5%.
The libs seem to try and sandbag the existing seats.
According to GhostwhoVotes:
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
12m12 minutes ago
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Pearce 2 Party Preferred: LIB 51 (-2.6 from election) ALP 49 (+2.6) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
10m10 minutes ago
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Swan Primary Votes: LIB 44 (-4.2 from election) ALP 37 (+4.0) GRN 11 (-4.0) UAP 4 (+4) ON 1 (+1) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
11m11 minutes ago
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Swan 2 Party Preferred: LIB 51 (-2.6 from election) ALP 49 (+2.6) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
12m12 minutes ago
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Pearce Primary Votes: LIB 40 (-5.4 from election) ALP 35 (+0.7) GRN 11 (0.0) ON 5 (+5) UAP 2 (+2) #auspol
0 replies 2 retweets 1 like
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
12m12 minutes ago
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Pearce 2 Party Preferred: LIB 51 (-2.6 from election) ALP 49 (+2.6) #auspol
0 replies 5 retweets 1 like
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
12m12 minutes ago
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Cowan Primary Votes: ALP 41 (-0.7 from election) LIB 40 (-2.2) GRN 6 (-1.6) ON 4 (+4) UAP 4 (+4) #auspol
0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
13m13 minutes ago
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Cowan 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 (+0.3 from election) LIB 49 (-0.3) #auspol
Labor is gaining in these Marginal Seats, so I think they are still underestimating them (Labor).
Lenore Taylor
Verified account @lenoretaylor
1h1 hour ago
Centrelink drops woman’s robodebt after she mounts court challenge – she’s still trying to challenge the whole ‘cryptic’ process by which the debts are calculated
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/05/centrelink-drops-womans-robodebt-after-she-mounts-court-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw
C@t:
Morrison and Frydenberg are the only two allowed to speak publicly for the govt in this campaign.
booleanbach @ #33 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 8:08 am
Good luck with that! It’ll just be ‘Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor!’
Confessions @ #36 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 8:14 am
And Birmingham.
And they all lie with consummate ease! 😡
Kayjay if you’re about. I’ve tried to reload my Firefox extensions but no go, all I get is a download failed message.
Insiders may be interesting this morning.
Will Barry give Frydenberg a good time or a hard time? What matters will the panel discuss? Will we get some honest commentary for once?
If Labor is elected we pretty much know who the front bench will be comprised of. But the same cannot be said for the coalition.
If they are re-elected, who will be PM? Who will be the Environment Minister? Foreign Affairs Minister? Defence Minister? Treasurer?
Cat
The rest of the senior cabinet members have either walked (Bishop, Pyne), or are in hiding.
This 1990 Liberal Party flyer about their policy plans to combat climate change never gets old.
http://australianpolitics.com/2007/11/20/liberal-party-climate-change-policy-1990-vs-2007.html
Maybe I should go along to a prepoll centre with a big stack of them and tell the Liberals there that I will volunteer to hand them out on behalf of the 1990 Liberal Party? So that voters can appreciate the enormous efforts the Liberals have made in 29 years to not act on this issue.
The rest of the senior cabinet members have either walked (Bishop, Pyne), or are in hiding.
____
Not in hiding Rocket, in solitary confinement.
The GST deal that PM Morrison achieved as Treasurer is popular with WA voters, this is why the Liberal Party will retain all their seats in WA.
Is that Zanetti 12 years old, or 14? I can’t decide…
Rocket:
That flyer is a great find! What a shame the Liberal party was hijacked by rightwing ideologues like Howard – just imagine how far along we’d be in reducing our GHGEs if the party had retained that policy position.
GST deal lol. @Bree.
WA voters are one trick pony then.
Nitt picky I know but Re Abbott “candidate wrap in the 1994 election” there was no federal (or NSW) election in 1994 – March 1993??
This is the kind of gumpf we’re getting in Indi:
‘Haines: We are all people of Indi. The only thing I have to give you is the courage to be myself. This is our grand idea. We are heading north. True north is our true self.’