Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.
Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.
Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.
Further reading on Poll Bludger:
• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.
• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.
• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.
Interesting.
I know $6m is a very small amount in an election context…but….Shorten obviously has the flexibility with the war chest to be able to react with that kind of thing at short notice.
13 days to run…i dont think today will be the last of the policy announcements.
With the ALP policy costings coming out Thurs?? That would seem to be the last day for any big $ announcements.
The Liberals gained so much by sending George to London.
The Guardian blog
Damn been out all day. Just got back to see the end of launch.
Amazing to see Gillard and Rudd together. I am very pleased.
“Starts a bit low key then really ramps it up.”
Thats well normal for Shorten. Does i think make him seem for real to people and actually a useful differentiation from the “polished” Ad Man persona of ScoMo.
It’s very clever politics on climate too. Leaving room for Greens voters and the Greens Party.
We might see the end of a Labor Green war and a return to competing parties.
Elections have consequences.
I can live in hope. 🙂
Except here @guytaur 😉
That was an excellent speech. Hit the right notes as well as attempting to neutralise perceived weaknesses.
I went to “The Together Party” launch yesterday evening.
(Maybe a wee bit late in electoral cycle)
One good Party slogan was:
“Make Australia slightly above average again”
Keating on the abc, storming the set!
Keating crashes the ABC broadcast!
Meanwhile…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/why-a-sydney-council-wants-to-increase-rates-by-almost-50-per-cent-20190503-p51jq7.html
Probyn ‘You sneaked up behind me.’
Keating, ‘I’ve done a bit of that in mi life.’
Let me guess. The ‘unique threatened species’ in this Nationals advert are the Nats themselves?
Keating nails it again.
The economy is FOR society
PJK! 😻
Boerwar says:
The ‘Sky’ peeps concur with your ‘best’ rating. LOL from Morrison just after. They cross to his Sunday ‘rally’. After speaking of australia as ‘the greatest country in the world’ in the very next sentence he says we “don’t big note ourselves”.
He is in tv preacher mode judging by the style of pacing back and forth and the microphone grip.
C
Gall!
If ever there were a single Party most responsible for Australia’s extinction crisis, it is the Nationals!
Jesus, Keating still has that essential brilliance to distil a discussion point into a few pithy, punchy words.
H
Yep.
It is not hard to predict the Liberals launch …………..they have a choice between their record, a plea to protect the status quo, and a need to keep Labor out at all costs as it will be the end of the civilized world as we know it. “Show us the money!”
The beauty of being a conservative is that you really don’t have to be for anything, especially anything new, and so it is easy to find a theme.
And in passing it is a pity the odd Shorten critic here, having had 6 years at least, with a RC thrown in for good measure to “get him”, are dead silent on the camaraderie, trust, harmony, from the one man back-stabbber/used-car salesman leading the Liberals and the the nobodies leading their hayseed mates, the Nationals.
Keating talking Micro Grids
https://youtu.be/ZQOh5Gv4BEI
https://thetogetherparty.org.au
We will see an ad man/Pentecostal preacher chimera for the nest 13 days.
Keating is priceless!
“The business council would be wetting themselves”.
Classic stuff from the great man.
Wages Drought.
Boerwar @ #464 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 11:37 am
Yep.
Probyn being shut down by the great PJK is amazing to watch
“Jesus, Keating still has that essential brilliance to distil a discussion point into a few pithy, punchy words”
Children, your assignment is to compare and contrast the “past luminaries” being engaged by the respective main parties in the election of 2019.
Reference persons like PJK, K Rudd, Julia Gillard, Bob Hawke, Bill Hayden for the ALP and for the Coalition persons such as, J Howard and……..well…….hmmmmm……..actually……. 🙁
Haha. Follow the bouncing ball.
Probyn and his colleague are no match for Keating’s intellectual prowess.
Right.
Chloe is going to be turned into a pillar of salt.
Bill is going to be hit with a hail of brimstones.
It stands to reason.
Andrew Probyn is obviously enjoying this tour de force from Keating.
Franking credits were not extended by john Howard they were ABUSED by John Howard says Keating. Spot on.
So glad Keating decided to speak publicly.
So this interview with PJK was him photo-bombing the ABC coverage?
Shit the Howard changes to franking credits was even worse than we’ve been led to understand!
Betfair odds have jumped around a bit today. Coalition now out to $5.20. Labor back in to $1.23.
PJK
Coal is over.
Interesting choice by Labor to get QLD Premier Adani to kick off their campaign launch.
Keating: ScoMo is a fossil with a baseball cap!
Is there going to be a newspoll tonight?
He was supposed to be on later imacca but thought he would wander on early, when it suited him.
Coal is a fossil and the PM is a fossil himself. LOL!
PJK
This is the land of Sun.
PJK explained in simple terms how to increase superannuation from 9.5% to 12. Not from wages but from productive increase. It was explained in such terms even a lay man like Rex or Peg will understand. There is nobody better than him in explaining complex issues in dimple terms.
PJK is delivering a master class!
PJK: Libs are policy deadbeats!
So, our PJK has quite strong views on the Security advice the Govt has been getting then. 🙂
Keating is exposing the shallowness of the press gallery. These ridiculous questions about coal revenue, as if the country can forever rely on coal revenue make me wonder where they’ve been for the last decade!
“They’ve gone berko”.