Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.
Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.
Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.
Further reading on Poll Bludger:
• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.
• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.
• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.
Growing up, I had posters of Paul Keating on my bedroom wall – next to AC/DC, Midnight Oil and Led Zeppelin. I also had a cut-out of Keating trampling on John Hewson’s head.
A rock star indeed!
Swamprat@1.38 pm:
Thanks for the links to the Together Party.
You probably missed my request to you at 7.50 am this morning for your impressions of the gathering yesterday. Would you be able to expand a little?
Suspect that Swan will be happy to have been somewhat upstaged by PJK.
Interesting that teh ALP machine seems to have everything interlocking and working well.
And no-one made a “suppository of all wisdom” type comment! 🙂
Fess
Keating did exactly what he wanted. He just destroyed Adani as an issue.
Coal is Over.
When asked about coal exports.
That’s moving the Overton Window with a vengeance 🙂
Firefox @ #487 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:47 pm
Bludgers
The perfect encapsulation of how pathetic and irrelevant the greens have become.
Vogon Poet @ #502 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
nath-Firefox Same-same
Pastor Morrison will conduct the Liberal launch from the pulpit of Shire Live next Sunday morning. The whole happy clapping routine including speaking in tongues.
VP
Labor being real on the environment and making the Greens irrelevant will be welcomed by the Greens.
Its no wonder the LNP have been talking about a formal coalition. Its their nightmare. A United Left.
Hey imacca
Spot-on comments re Labor luminaries presented today. As for the Libs,well, all they can do is drag out a faded old ex-PM. Shows just how short on historical figureheads the Cons are, doesn’t it? Absolutely indicative of how poor their production line of leaders is.
Swan claims 4 or 5 seats can be won in Qld.
Commendable effort by Rudd and Gillard to look friendly towards one another. It looked like they’d both been tied down and had their jaws clamped into a permanent smile before Keating shoved them out into the conference room.
Surprised there’s anyone left here on PB today. Would’ve thought you Labor folks would’ve been in Brisbane with the rest of the rust.
“Its no wonder the LNP have been talking about a formal coalition. Its their nightmare. A United Left.”
guytar, i think the problems that would come with a formal ALP/Greens coalition would negate the value of such. Better if ALP / Greens cooperate where they identify values and issues close enough to be able to do that.
That’s been a tour de force of an election launch by Labor. Plus a flick of the switch to vaudeville by no less than the maestro himself, PJK!
As a member of the ALP in the ACT I’ve seen how the left can work well together.
The Greens are a reality, they have a consistuency that deserves to be heard.
I’ve become of the view that a positive tension between Labor and the Greens can be beneficial to both if done without grandstanding and moral outrage.
The reality is that the membership of the ALP and the mainstream Greens members have more in common than some here choose to recognise… and let me say that people’s understanding of factions in the ALP is not reflective of reality.
Oh doGs above!! ScoMo actually saying “how goods that” repeatedly……………
Swan was pretty good too, but lacks the ability to intimidate clueless journalists like Keating can.
In the interests of balance ABC cuts straight to Morrison blathering on about nothing.
And The Greens will be able to fit all their supporters, behind closed doors, in a small Melbourne community centre for their campaign launch.
I just went down to my local Woolies to do a mini shop and Bert Van Manen (Forde) was there on the roadside waving at passers by. He was waving whilst they were flipping him the bird. The guys as popular as a dose of the clap! He’s in for one hell of an ousting on May 18th.
Morrison saying nothing as usual. Just a happy clapping dinosaur.
imacca
I am talking long term. Its not going to happen in this term of parliament.
Just like healing the Labor party. Restoring trust between the Greens and Labor will happen in the short term.
There will still be competition just I think we have seen an end to the war. It will take time for attitudes in both parties to adjust. Both this term and next.
However Keating saying ng Coal is Over regarding coal exports has changed the political chess board.
He said what no sitting Labor member of parliament could.
“As a member of the ALP in the ACT I’ve seen how the left can work well together.”
Absolutely. The ACT Greens and ACT Labor work very well together. They’ve been in stable minority government together for three terms in a row. Very good chance of a fourth term too considering how unpopular the Liberals are in Canberra.
We will see trickle down economics prosecuted in Tongues.
Is guytaur still wittering on about a Labor/Greens Coalition? In yer dreams, sunshine!
OMG The Pastor is doing his thing…How good is that and that and that too.
I have a plan!
Dead dog story seems to have sunk without trace. Surely if the PM was bullshitting about this the voters have the right to know. Story is that a dog was shot and put next to a Vote 1 Henderson corflute in someone’s yard and somehow this was not reported to police. Smells like bullshit, but the PM swears it is a “true story” – and the media ignore it.
A dead dog us the perfect metaphor for the Abbott- Turnbull-Morrison ‘government’.
“And The Greens will be able to fit all their supporters, behind closed doors, in a small Melbourne community centre for their campaign launch.”
Incorrect. The Greens’ campaign launch was held in Canberra.
BK says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 2:05 pm
Maybe it makes sense that way?
Sorry Bennelong. I just pop in and out.
I only stayed until the “Political Quiz”.
It was, shall we say quite “unpolished”.
The sound system did not work for the first half hour and i could not hear the Welcome to Country by Delta Kaye.
There was a reasonable sized and positive crowd for 4 pm on a wet Saturday. The Hotel beer garden was pretty full.
I certainly like their policy emphasis.
It is very Northern Rivers. 🙂
Naths at happy clappers rally.
I believe,you believe,we all believe,tax is the devil and the labor party want to tax the rich.
Cat
The ACT is a reality.
You are someone that needs to adjust.
Keating sent a crystal clear message on coal.
That was the big division.
I am giving Labor credit here for reaching out.
Its only if you buy the Murdoch spin that you say we can never work with the Greens.
Labor is not that stupid
ScoMo has lied so many times.
“Its only if you buy the Murdoch spin that you say we can never work with the Greens.”
This.
Sorry that post at 2:09 pm
was an answer to:
Bennelong Lurker says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 1:52 pm
Swamprat@1.38 pm:
Thanks for the links to the Together Party.
You probably missed my request to you at 7.50 am this morning for your impressions of the gathering yesterday. Would you be able to expand a little?
I see Rudd and Gillard at the labor lauchh says Scomo…I remember how it’s all labor labor labor labor who put us in the mess we are in today cause they cant manage mobey and people who cant manage money spend more.
This guy has nothing to say, it’s all bullshit and lies but fortunately God loves him .
Interesting, isn’t it, how the only comment that bot the Coalition and The Greens have to make about the Labor launch is some sort of half-baked snide remark about Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s personal relationship or a lie about their government’s ability to manage the economy.
Just pathetic.
Money.money,money is all the happy clapper is on about.Wonder what his religion says about money.
Or maybe The Together Party is partly a vehicle for the founder to get into the Senate or sell his book!!
Firefox @ #524 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 2:08 pm
Well, it says everything that even committed political watchers like us here didn’t even know that.
Maybe because The Greens’ campaign launch was held behind closed doors at a very small Canberra community centre. 🙂
Grime @ #533 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 12:13 pm
Was he asked whether Malcolm Turnbull will be at their launch next week?
TThat’s it the sounds off,I can’t stand this anymore.
Scomo be gone.
God this is pathetic.
Control Freak.
Sending kids to slave farms.
Confessions @ #539 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 2:19 pm
No he is just doing his Pastor routine speaking to the microphone on the central coast of NSW.The nodding heads behind him have just about gone to sleep as he labor x5 everyone into slumber.
Grime
13 more sleeps until we find out if that’s a permanent F Off Clown.
Jane Cattermole
@janecat60
38s38 seconds ago
‘Kick up the backside’: Libs contemplate the unthinkable in Higgins https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/05/kick-up-the-backside-libs-contemplate-the-unthinkable-in-higgins?CMP=share_btn_tw … by @Gay_Alcorn
C@t, please don’t put words in my mouth. It was only yesterday that I was saying that Rudd especially deserves more credit for how he handled the GFC.
Come on though. Even you have to admit that Rudd and Gillard looked pretty funny together. They were there today to support Labor. Pretending to be best of friends when we all know they are anything but just looked comical. But credit to both of them for trying I guess lol
Grime:
In that case I’d have switched off long before you!
“Well, it says everything that even committed [Labor] watchers like us here didn’t even know that.”
I fixed it for you.
.