YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan

Seat polls find nothing in it in Perth’s marginals, Labor and Liberal alike.

Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.

Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.

Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.

Further reading on Poll Bludger:

• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.

• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.

• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan”

Comments Page 7 of 18
1 … 6 7 8 … 18

  4. Cat

    This tradition Labor started is great.

    I am looking forward to embracing the history of this country all 50 000 years of it.

  6. guytaur – does it ever occur to you that Murdoch has/had specific interests, and this is the significance of where he has the most influence – he has a sentimental attachment to screwing up Australia because of dear old Dad and where he got his start, then he really established his media empire in Thatcher’s England and likes to keep his fingers in the pie there, and is now focused primarily on the biggest game in town – ensuring the USA remains fucked up. That’s why his malign presence is in these places.

    He didn’t care enough about NZ or Canada.

  7. meher baba says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 11:12 am
    Re the next Newspoll: there are too many moving parts to this campaign to make it easy to predict where it will go. On the one hand, Shorten performed really well this last week, and was starting to look positively Prime Ministerial. On the other hand, I reckon the Coalition finally started to get some traction with its attacks on Labor’s policies. The forced withdrawal of a number of candidates is a factor of which the impact is hard to predict.

    And then there is the looming figure of Palmer and the question of where his preferences will end up going. Of course nobody can have any certainty about this and, on that basis, I reckon William is totally right to question Newspoll’s decision to assume that they will flow more strongly to the Coalition. However, I also think it would be reasonable for Laborites to consider the possibility that UAP preferences could flow more heavily towards the Coalition to represent a significant risk for their party’s chances.

    What we do know is that, if it doesn’t move a bit closer to a reliable 51-49 or, worse still for the Coalition heads towards 52-48 or beyond, their prospects will become very bleak indeed.

    Interestingly, the betting markets seem to be predicting that things aren’t going to get any better for the Coalition before election day. It’s always difficult to assess the extent to which there is very much smart money going into these markets, which makes me rather sceptical towards them. Still, the lengthening odds for a ScoMo victory do seem indicate that a group of people who follow the contest closely enough to want to risk their money on it consider that it is more or less done and dusted.

    I reckon everything hinges on the extent of the impact of the Coalition’s negativity towards Labor’s tax package and, to a lesser extent, its climate change policies. I have to say that, if you measure his performance against the model established by PJK in 1993 in his relentless attack on the GST, ScoMo doesn’t seem to me to have gone in quite as hard as he might have done. Maybe he has access to internal party polling that suggests that he isn’t going to win whatever he’s going to do. Maybe some of that internal polling is surreptitiously informing the betting markets.

    It is usual during a campaign for political parties to periodically drop tidbits of internal polling information to the press gallery. Labor has done a bit of this, but the Coalition less so. This is possibly not a good sign.

    So, in conclusion, I’ll go with 52-48. But I’m not overly confident.

    WOW! That’s a BIG move for you Meher. Only a few days ago you were prognosticating that Labor would pull up a little short in the run to the line. Now you’re tipping a poll margin that would see them win easily.

    I notice that Andrew Earlwood also seems to have his mojo back this morning after a very pessimistic post a few days ago. So something seems to be working. The only exception seems to be Briefly who, after predicting for months that Labor would win in a cataclysmic landslide that would almost wipe the Liberals out, now seems to be almost conceding the election to them. Very strange.

  8. Henry

    Two things I wonder about the Tory launch next week;
    1: will they have a welcome to country?
    2: will Turnbull be there?

    Computer says – no (unless Gina can be persuaded to do it), and no.

  9. Henry

    Get a room 🙂

    Yes he is impressive.
    Good government is coming.

    Another area of denial being destroyed by Labor. A long term project I greatly respect Labor for.

  10. I don’t find Dodson loveable at all, not that Dodson would give a toss about what I think about him.
    What I do admire about Dodson is that his inner and his public views are consistent.

  12. And Labor better make sure that First Nations structures put in place by a hoped for Labor federal government do not succumb to the same corruption that ATSIC did.

  18. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 12:04 pm
    And Labor better make sure that First Nations structures put in place by a hoped for Labor federal government does not succumb to the same corruption that ATSIC did.
    ______________________
    Most of that was just propaganda from The Australian. No one mentions the ‘corruption’ at local council, state gov or federal gov. It was a relentless campaign against ATSIC.

  19. Mikearoo
    ‏Verified account @mpbowers
    5m5 minutes ago

    Former PM’s Keating, Rudd and Gillard at the #LaborElectionLaunch in #Brisbane @AmyRemeikis @murpharoo @GuardianAus #politicslive
    :large

  29. Labor has a much, much stronger team than the coalition.

    You are forgetting all the big names in the Coalition. Like almost all the Murdoch papers staff, Most of SKY, half NINE, the IPA, a good handful of ABC journos…. It is quite a team.

  32. Cat – corruption to some degree is inevitable – just look at the regular local government scandals that happen all around the country. Of course whatever structures need to be as resistant as possible to corruption, and have decent (though not overbearing) oversight from an NIC or whatever.

    ATSIC shouldn’t have been expected to be perfect. It should have been given the time, and given the kicks up the backside, to get their house in order. Expecting any governance structure to be completely clean at all times is to set it up to fail when human beings are involved and some of them do dodgy things, as humans are wont to do.

  39. The Toorak Toff @ #198 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    Labor appears to have its problems in Solomon,

    Coalition running TV ads in NT consisting of ‘NT Labor is bad, therefore Bill is too’. Featuring all the usual tropes like (allegedly) higher taxes and debt under Labor, unflattering scary photos, etc.

    guytaur @ #225 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 10:54 am

    Tristo

    Yes. Mr Shorten gave me real hope on this one snubbing Murdoch.

    I think it might be part of the desperation. The Murdoch business model of fear and division doesn’t work in Canada.

    One of the unity tickets for Rudd and Gillard would be this.

    Don’t write crap!
    Murdoch is a cancer on democracy.

    Murdoch knows that if Labor win this time against his best (most extreme?) efforts, then his business model is good as dead and buried. His power basically consists of being able to extort and intimidate both sides of the political class. As soon as one side are immune to his tactics, he has nothing.

    For this alone Shorten Labor deserve a go, because nothing will really improve for Oz until the lethal Murdoch parasite is removed from our body politic.

    It is not enough on its own, but it is an absolute necessity to even start dealing with the other problems.

    C@tmomma @ #243 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 11:00 am

    Wow!
    Lyne Fomiatti
    @LyneFomiatti
    Good decision…
    Labor puts end of cashless welfare card on the table

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/labor-puts-end-of-cashless-welfare-card-on-the-table-ng-b881082060z

    Good. 🙂

  40. By individually highlighting the shadow ministerial team Wong is really shoving it up to the Coalition. Impossible to counter in Morrison’s circumstances.

  43. Jackol,
    I cannot but agree with your sentiments, however, we need to make sure that it doesn’t happen again because saldy it crueled progress for Indigenous Australians via a stand alone entity.

  44. BK says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 12:04 pm

    I wonder what form welcome to nation will take at the Liberal campaign be . . . wherever it is?

    A parade of the RWFWs of the Party.

  49. From Insiders this morning.

    How to contradict yourself in two sentences.

    Cassidy: Well, there are people in your party who are saying that you’re going out and you’re recruiting people from some of the churches and their views are quite extreme?

    Frydenberg: Well, if people are religious, and those views that they have accord with their religion and they want to express them and they’re legal, so be it.

    But we don’t want people with extremist views in our party. We don’t sanctions these views and, as I pointed out earlier, we’ve seen issues such as this be raised across states and across parties, and the Labor party has no place to lecture us given the comments of some of their candidates who have been disendorsed.

    The Guardian blog

Comments Page 7 of 18
1 … 6 7 8 … 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *