YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan

Seat polls find nothing in it in Perth’s marginals, Labor and Liberal alike.

Perth’s Sunday Times has modestly sampled polls from the state’s three most marginal seats, conducted on Wednesday by YouGov Galaxy. These record well-inside-the-error-margin leads for three incumbents, two Liberal and one Labor:

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Christian Porter is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (34.3%), Greens 11% (11.0%), One Nation 5% and the United Australia Party 2%. Compared with a Newspoll earlier in the campaign (which was presumably functionally identical to this one in its methods), the Liberals are steady, Labor are down one, the Greens are up three, One Nation is down one – and the United Australia Party is down fully six points. The sample for this poll was 525 (as was the Newspoll, give or take).

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Steve Irons is likewise credited with a 51-49 lead, as he fights off a challenge from Labor’s Hannah Beazley. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 37% (33.0%), Greens 11% (15.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 1%. Sample: 504.

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Another 51-49 lead for an incumbent, this time Labor’s Anne Aly. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 40% (42.2%), Greens 6% (7.6%), and United Australia Party and One Nation 4% each. Sample: 506.

Both the Palmer and Hanson parties are at notably modest levels of support, such that controversies about preferences allocation are less likely to arise. The two-party results, in any case, are all what you would reasonably expect from the primary votes.

Also today, the Sun-Herald reports a poll conducted by Lonergan Research for GetUp! has Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 56-44 in Warringah. The only detail offered on the primary vote is that Tony Abbott is on 38%. The poll was conducted on May 1 from a sample of 805, and may be the same poll that was discussed in yesterday’s post.

Further reading on Poll Bludger:

• Adrian Beaumont has a new post on Britain’s local government elections and national elections in Spain.

• Tasmania’s quaint yearly upper house periodical elections were held yesterday, in which a Labor incumbent defended a Hobart seat with a substantial swing, a Liberal incumbent retained a seat in the state’s north without one, and another looks likely to remain independent.

• Apropos the immediate subject of this post, today’s Seat du jour instalment covers the seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “YouGov Galaxy WA seat polls: Pearce, Swan and Cowan”

Comments Page 12 of 18
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  2. A point of fact.

    The media gave more coverage to the Clive Palmer campaign launch than to the Greens so far.

    That’s bias.

  4. Firefox,
    Unlike The Greens, who just yesterday had former candidate, Alex Bhathal, outlining what was wrong with The Greens, Labor, and its former leaders, have done what is necessary to learn from its mistakes of the past. It seemed to me that both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have as well. Genuinely.

  5. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 2:29 pm
    Firefox,
    Unlike The Greens, who just yesterday had former candidate, Alex Bhathal, outlining what was wrong with The Greens, Labor, and its former leaders, have done what is necessary to learn from its mistakes of the past. It seemed to me that both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have as well. Genuinely.
    _______________________
    Well they could call it a 1-1 draw.

  9. Will the Newspoll be published in tomorrows papers? If so, the official Labor campaign launch today will not be factored in to these polling results. Therefore I predict Labor to maintain their 51/49 2pp lead over the Coalition.

  10. Regarding Firefox, I noticed yesterday that none of my add-ons (including my adblocker) were working. It seems the issue was resolved, and they were working again this morning… until about half an hour ago, when I received a notification that they had all be switched off. *sigh*

    This is the browser version of Firefox.


  12. Firefox @ #524 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    “And The Greens will be able to fit all their supporters, behind closed doors, in a small Melbourne community centre for their campaign launch.”

    Incorrect. The Greens’ campaign launch was held in Canberra.

    You arn’t supposed to keep a campaign launch a secret. Let us know next time.
    I googled it nothing came up.

  13. Thanks, Swamprat @2.09 and 2.18:

    Somehow I imagined it might be a bit like that and wondered what the underlying motive might be. Did he strike you as pragmatic or over idealistic?
    Was interested to see who published his book. Have bought a few Australian Poets whose work has also been published by Puncher and Wattmann.

  15. hMMMMMM….ScoMo on ABC 24trying the “stand up daggy funny man” thing.

    I think he’s missed the point, and has no straight man for support. 🙂

    pathetic attempt to emulate Shortens style. very fake.

  16. steve davis says:

    Money.money,money is all the happy clapper is on about.Wonder what his religion says about money.

    That’s his church alright. I saw a youtube of some minister at the church Scrott attends. The very frequent mentioning/asking for money/donations/tithing stood out like the proverbials.

  18. And now on the ABC “The pale Pullthrough”
    Shorten blah blah blah Big reckless spending labor party who cannot be trusted yabba yabba

  22. Birmingham

    Labor have not said how they are going to pay for it.

    Labor are going to have higher taxes.

    Hmmmmmmmmm

  24. “You arn’t supposed to keep a campaign lunch a secret. Let us know next time.
    I googled it nothing came up.”

    There’s multiple posts covering it on the Australian Greens’ Facebook and Twitter accounts.

  25. Firefox @ #571 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 2:40 pm

    “You arn’t supposed to keep a campaign lunch a secret. Let us know next time.
    I googled it nothing came up.”

    There’s multiple posts covering it on the Australian Greens’ Facebook and Twitter accounts.

    It’s a secret but it will be next Sunday and Keating Rudd and Gillard will not be there and we’ll have plenty to say…So there.

  27. Greenies on twitter now trying to devide current and former Labor leaders.

    Adam Bandt “Morrison must go, but Shorten must now back Keating.”.

  28. Firefox

    google “greens campaign launch 2019” and see what you get.
    then try
    labor campaign launch 2019.

    Labor arn’t trying to keep theirs secret.

  29. What are the chances of Birmingham getting turfed on the 18th?
    I think we need an election night list check list of Coalition numbskulls we would like to loose the most,I’m sure this one would be up there with Dutton and budgie smuggler.

  31. “Is Birmingham the Minister for everything else?”

    Campaign spokesman. Seems the best they could come up with in an equivalent role to Kristina Keneally this campaign.

    Sad buggers with a shallow gene pool aren’t they. 🙂

  32. @guytaur

    Yup. BandT trying to say about Shorten should do 10x more what Keeting said in a 10 min interview.

    Infact, Shorten has laid out about not backing off the climate change and action must act.

  33. Why do we want to talk about coal and losing lots of jobs with some other new fangled material?
    I remember back in the day when Henry Vth. still reigned and we had all those bowyers & fletchers and arrowmakers – all up and down the land. Then some idiot proposed a new fangled technology called ‘guns’.
    Well we soon shut that down quick smart.

  34. The economic malaise of the Nation, along with the very high levels of private debt which has escalated from 2000 by RBA data sees the latest quarterly GDP measurement at 0.2% (noting the contributors), inflation at ZERO, the Cash Rate at 1.5% and the 10 Year Bond Yield at 1.8%

    And the projection that the RBA will further reduce the Cash Rate

    But

    What about the demographic with cash savings including where the interest on those savings funds their life style (including in retirement)?

    Their income reduces

    Their abilities to purchase goods and services (taxed at 10%) is diminished

    AND they take risks, being introduced to that risk by a bribe for their vote

    So Franking Credits, where the underlying investment is into a Company listed on the ASX and paying fully franked dividends

    So, invested into Australian banks

    Where their Share Price reflects their business practices – in serious decline

    So wealth lost

    The higher the rate of return the more the risk

    But people are taking unsustainable risk because of the decayed economy – and interest rates confirming that status

    The Coalition with their Right Wing austerity dogma are damaging society including because of the favour given to borrowers over savers

    Then there are your kids or grandkids saving for a deposit on a home – and getting no “leg up” from interest on those savings

  35. Zoid

    Exactly. Bandt Keating and Shorten on the same page.

    If you are trying to work out what will happen with a Labor government you have to look past the rhetoric

  36. “google “greens campaign launch 2019” and see what you get.
    then try
    labor campaign launch 2019.

    Labor arn’t trying to keep theirs secret.”

    Labor’s was widely covered by the mainstream establishment media, you’re right about that. Proud of it too, apparently.

    The Greens making many posts about their launch on their social media accounts is the exact opposite of trying to hide it lol. It’s not our fault if you’re trapped in the two party establishment bubble and don’t want to see what’s going on outside it.

  37. @guytaur..

    Read the entire tweet:

    Adam Bandt
    ‏Verified account @AdamBandt
    10m10 minutes ago

    Adam Bandt Retweeted Michael Koziol

    Keating has belled the cat.

    But he is being wheeled out to say this about coal because the others refuse to.

    Morrison wants more coal & Shorten says coal is here ‘for the foreseeable future’.

    Morrison must go, but Shorten must now back Keating.

    If Keating and Shorten on the Same page, what is Bandt on then? He still thinks Shorten is on Morrisson’s Page.

  38. It will be interesting to see if Blowhard ScoMo mentions franking credits much more from here on. I noticed Bill pumped up that issue at the ALP launch. Reckon it might not be hurting as much as some on here think.

    Did Blowhard mention it today in his presser?

  40. “That was Shorten’s best ever public speech”

    havent heard it yet, but my personal favourite is still his 2014 budget reply

  42. James Chapman
    ‏ @jameschappers
    12h12 hours ago

    Hearing from one senior legal source that serious consideration being given to potential case to immediately annul referendum result because of Russian interference and misconduct case against May and Bojo for ignoring clear MI6/ISC warnings and then misleading Parliament

  43. Grime says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 2:46 pm

    What are the chances of Birmingham getting turfed on the 18th?
    I think we need an election night list check list of Coalition numbskulls we would like to loose the most,I’m sure this one would be up there with Dutton and budgie smuggler.

    Well, considering he’s a Senator and not up for reelection this time;

    NIL!!!

  44. For those that follow the betting markets, and enjoy a bit of arbitrage, Labor are currently paying $1.90 in Robertson on Sportsbet. Ladbrokes are offering $1.30.

    They were $1.28 on Sportsbet just a few hours ago. Not sure if anything significant occurred in Robertson (Bludgers?), or just a response to some money coming in for the Libs. Or a cock-up by Sportsbet, as sometimes happens.

  45. The Greens making many posts about their launch on their social media accounts is the exact opposite of trying to hide it lol.

    After the event, putting their own spin on it lol. 🙂

  47. Benelong Lurker

    I gather he is well known and is both an entertainer and does pro bono legal work and works in renewable energy. I am a fringe dweller so do not know much of local society.

    He seemed genuine. I was not trying to be cynical. I only heard of it, from an acquaintance, an hour before i went.

    The commitment to re-establishing good Government and public services is very attractive.

    It would seem it is very late for this election but it gives another leftist group in the NSW Senate to preference.

  50. Andrew Probyn says 24 is going to be playing the Keating interview in full again for those that missed it.

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