Despite the onset of the election campaign, there is only one new data point to add to BludgerTrack this week, which is a status quo 52-48 result from Newspoll that has duly little effect on the national vote trends. Such movement as there is is away from One Nation and towards the Coalition on the primary vote, with next to no impact on two-party preferred or the seat projection, where the Coalition makes a single gain in Victoria.
Since there is no new state-level data this week, the breakdowns continue to record an unnatural looking lurch to the Coalition in New South Wales, which I would want to see corroborated by more data. The leadership trends are interesting in that an upswing in Scott Morrison’s net approval has returned him, just barely, to net positive territory. The effect on preferred prime minister is more modest, but there appears to be a slight trend in his favour there too.
However, the biggest news in BludgerTrack this week as far as I’m concerned is that a helpful reader has told me how to fix the bug that was preventing the state breakdown tabs from working much of the time. If this was causing you grief before, there is a very good chance it will not be doing so if you try again now, which you can do through the link below.
Diogenes
No that IS interesting. Not ‘objective’ after all. 🙂
Confessions: Sorry to interrupt your reading of the Mueller report.
Confessions says:
Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 11:20 pm
zoomster:
You sound surprised. Australia has one of the best health systems in the world, so those rankings don’t surprise me.
-0-
There was a question in the last para of my 12.01am
“And Confessions, I put it to you: would you prefer the single payer, all bulk-billed system for medical and hospital services or the two-tier hodge-podge Australian system, with exclusions, co-pays and gaps and wasteful marketing costs? Do you not realize that is how you end up with the situation facing that leukemia patient who pays $1,500 for a MRI and is $20,000 out of pocket so far. You do seem to be quite sanguine about companies charging exorbitant fees for disability care.”
C@tmomma @ #845 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 8:42 am
Interesting – a quick search reveals —-
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7878-australian-newspaper-print-readership-and-cross-platform-audiences-december-2018-201902070454
Googling brings beaucoup articles including claims of double digit % downturn sales of weekend titles.
Whenever I get a chance (not very often) I have a look at what’s left in the Newspaper slots – The Daily Telegraph for instance, of which the front page could make a casual viewer doubt that it is/was a newspaper.
The local paper The Newcastle Herald is down by about 34%.
Au revoir. 😵😲 ☮ ☕
I see the pointless, boring war of words between the Greens and Labor protagonists has started early again today. It must drive William to despair having to wade through the same repetitive crap day after day, week after week, with no end in sight.
Couldn’t we just declare it a nil all draw and move on to something more productive?
Guytaur, I agree with what you’re saying. I just think the Greens could be a little more incremental in their approach, that’s all. I think dramatic change is possible in Australia, but not all at once in this matter. I do think negotiations can be made in good faith with “red lines” set in advance by either party, but they need to be set such that the other party can actually survive the consequences of accepting them.
beguiledagain:
I think you’ve mixed up me and zoomster. It happens all the time, I’m often confused with C@t for eg. And you question doesn’t make sense as I’ve never said I was sanguine about exorbitant fees for disability care.
But if your comment has something to do with Obamacare, then I’ll be clear: I’ve never advocated that the Republicans should abolish it, quite the opposite in fact. Besides, I reckon they’d be mad to even try seeing as how it was such a potent issue for the Democrats in the midterms. Which is probably why they don’t talk about it much anymore.
Fess
William Barr has behaved exactly as expected. Past behaviour and all that. No surprise as to why he was chosen as AG.
Yep, that’s how it capitalism works.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4ZuwcNXsAYW-0A?format=jpg&name=900×900
Confessions: Something funny is going on. This is the copy of the post that I was referring to at 1120pm Thursday. You seem to be replying to something from Zoomster.
——————-
Confessions says:
Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 11:20 pm
zoomster:
You sound surprised. Australia has one of the best health systems in the world, so those rankings don’t surprise me.
———————–
OK Sorry to disturb you. If Zoomster is listening perhaps Zoomster can throw some light on this.
Vic:
Yep, a total Trump crony, just like all the others.
Australia Institute
@TheAusInstitute
Replying to @TheAusInstitute @theprojecttv and
The Australian Government bought 29 gigalitres of water for $80m in the Condamine-Balonne valley.
The vendors originally insisted on $2,200 per megalitre. But the Government negotiated a HIGHER price – $2,745 per megalitre.
And here is the enemy:
(Insert unflattering photos of Morrison, Abbott and Dutton here, preferably looking scary and/or stupid)
The only reason why i am bagging the Greens is their unacceptable approach to any policy.
i.e. Full Glass Approach.
So the Greens can stick it to themselves, until they grow up and learn how to play along.
The Angry Goddess
@Bishop64
14h14 hours ago
Environment Minister ordered Adani meeting the day colleagues lobbied for approval https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/environment-minister-ordered-adani-meeting-the-day-colleagues-lobbied-for-approval-20190418-p51fdx.html … via @smh
KayJay
One interesting take out from those figures is that their digital reach is also declining. Some day they’re going to have to wake up the realisation that it’s the product which is failing.
Fess
Barr can try and spin this. But with all the ongoing cases that have been redacted etc., he and Trump cronies will ultimately fail
KayJay @ #31151 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 10:05 am
The Newcastle Herald is one of the few good papers in Oz – but I suspect will succumb to Rupert Disease and the Rum Corps. I have maintained my subscription, despite having moved from Newcastle.
Aaron Dodd
@AaronDodd
14m14 minutes ago
Jacinda Ardern named world’s second greatest leader by Fortune Magazine, via @nzherald #auspol #nzpol
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12223771
I’d love to clear things up, but I have absolutely no idea what point beguiledagain is trying to make.
The post of mine alluded to was one in response to “Canada has a better health system than Australia” (or something along those lines).
I wasn’t surprised by anything, I was simply finding the evidence which showed it wasn’t.
Vic:
When the WH counsel from the Watergate era says Mueller’s report is the most damning report about a president, you know something is amiss with Barr’s ‘summary’ and redactions.
David Marler
@Qldaah
52s53 seconds ago
Residents in Warringah are complaining about telephone push polling, unwanted copies of the Daily Telegraph arriving on their lawns and election posters being defaced. #WarringahVotes #ausvotes
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/19/warringah-voters-complain-about-free-copies-of-daily-telegraph-as-election-rancour-boils
Michael A
Exactly
That’s why some people need to remember the Greens did this
The Gillard Climate legislation would never have passed without Windsor and Oakshott voting for it.
That’s why Labor types referring to 2013 not 2015 are missing the point.
Then there was the Medivac Bill.
Anyone saying the Greens don’t do sensible compromise has not been paying attention
A sneak peek at the man inside the Capt GetUp costume. Very funny.
https://twitter.com/markhumphries/status/1118841136913588224
For those who haven’t seen The Project’s piece on Angus/Barnyard Cayman Is water cashback rort…
https://mobile.twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1118819204650553349/video/1
Fess
Redactions do relate to ongoing cases which can be argued protect the integrity of such cases. But for Barr to do a presser and mischaracterise the findings to date to spin for Trump, is unethical to say the least.
In any case, it Is delaying the inevitable. When all said and done it will be clear that Trumps name will be mud
Stephen Spencer
@sspencer_63
2m2 minutes ago
Stephen Spencer Retweeted
Bloke who tells radio interview, which people hear with their own ears, and can record, and report, with actual quotes, of what he actually said with his own mouth, denies saying what everyone heard him say. Rightio… https://twitter.com/scottmorrisonmp/status/1118721725414252544 …
Now here’s something interesting although not very surprising – general disapproval of the dumping of MT, though only by a small majority among Lib voters, and hearty approval among ON voters.
http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/niLRc/1/
(Chart extracted from a piece by Annabel Crabb on https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-19/vote-compass-turnbull-morrison-leadership/11028386 )
I do have two questions though:
1. Will it have much (or any) effect on votes? It may be part of the cause of the decline in ON votes, now the Libs have a leader they’re happier with, but how many lifelong Lib voters will be so disgusted that they effectively vote Labor (or Zali etc)?
2. Why was there no sign of that question on Vote Compass when I just did it?
I’m not promoting any kind of rancour against the Captain GetUp “actor” but if this guy is indeed a backpacker, I have to say his judgment in accepting the job is seriously flawed.
If I were traveling in another country, the last thing I would want to do as a foreign national would be to involve myself so prominently in their political affairs during an election campaign. It’s actually more than a little… impolite… of him to have done so in my opinion.
Morning all. Some quick reactions to upstream comments.
The DT front page with the scary big number was interesting because it names and attacks Labor and doesn’t name Shorten. Have they realised you don’t name your opponent? Are they pivoting away from Kill Bill?
Shorten’s cold shoulder to Murdoch is no doubt hurting him (hurting Shorten). I wonder if there is a clue there for how a Shorten government will rein in the news media. Or perhaps Shorten realises dealing with or not dealing with Murdoch are both lose options, so pragmatically Murdoch is just not worth the time. Maybe a bit of both.
What qualifies as a science? For me the answer is a field of study that stakes its reputation on a predictable specific real-world outcome. Merely using mathematics doesn’t make something a science. Mathematics isn’t a science. Political Science isn’t a science. (The study of politics is important. I’m absolutely sure it is difficult and profound and enriching and useful, but like History it isn’t a science.) I don’t have the right label, but Science isn’t it.
PuffyTMD says:
Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 10:18 pm
Modern gen 3 fast neutron reactors are extremely safe efficient and can use spent fuel rods from gen2 reactors. The water in the cooling tanks is perfectly safe to drink. Melt downs are not possible in gen3 reactors.
Melt downs are not possible in gen3 reactors
Gen 3 are an evolution from gen 2; ask him for a photo of a completed Gen 3 reactor. You will find lots of 3D models. Both generations moderate the neutron energy. Both use the same fuel and same basic idea.
He may be talking about fast breeder reactors; they are more versitile in the type of fuel used. The neutron energy is a lot higher as they use liquid sodium as coolant; as sodium melts at 97 degrees C I don’t think he would be drinking it. There is a prototype being built in India. They are great for producing the fuel for atomic weapons. Not sure I would be calling them safe.
As for sodium, this picture gives you an idea of the game they are playing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRPuDQtB_5Y
Basically you relative is full of shit.
Having a break from watering my many pot plants.
Further to the Newspaper sales .
Just what different readers want from a Newspaper is interesting – sports – art – science etc – sport gets a good coverage (accuracy unknown). The supposedly serious items need decoding.
I think the item ⬇ is interesting – from
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/leave-it-to-philip-marlowe-of-masterpieces-to-recover-underworlds-stolen-work/news-story/68e2088b5242cb2a668bc775814ff2c3
How he got that picture of me should be placed in the hands of the AFP (sorry that’s wrong – the AFP is collectively using all the hands available to find the referenced collective backside – anybody got a flashlight ❓ )
Back to watering plants. 🌸🌸🌸
Michael A
In fact the point for Labor is they want as many progressive Senators they can get.
That means wanting Labor Senators to win in the Senate. Where that’s not going to happen then the Greens.
That way Labor can afford to ignore One Nation which has a public policy of opposing Labor’s legislation. With a track record of having deniers in their party.
We know part of the Senate is not up for a vote. So to improve the math Labor and the Greens need to work together during the campaign to increase the vote. Maybe having public slanging matches achieves that.
Jack Aranda @ #928 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 10:40 am
That was going to be my next comment. Thanks for posting. The huge (Crabb calls it “violent”) difference in voter opinion comparing Morrison’s ascension with that of Rudd, and Turnbull is the story. Morrison is in trouble there. But as in all such polls, respondents are self selected. This introduces a huge (violent?) bias towards the opinions of political tragics. It is never answered how this relates to the overall voter population. So it needs a few grains of salt. Interesting though.
Morrison was always one to lean in to lies.
Having noted the success of Trump in total abnegation of truth and how the media are essentially powerless to fight it, he is fighting this campaign with a similar modus operandi.
Yet to be seen if it will work here, with compulsory and preferential voting.
Essentially, this election involves two decisions we need to make as a country- tax cuts vs funded services and lies vs some attachment to reality.
Confessions @ #783 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 6:22 am
Given your location in the west, I marvel at your consistently early rising.
How is the Miss Maud bean poll going?
Jack Aranda
It was a question on Vote Compass.
The ALP have got the incrementalism thing well and truly covered. No need for more progressive parties to emulate that approach.
Making incrementalism your opening bid for policy negotiation is stupid in any event. It is smart to open with your vision of what the optimal policy would be, and make it clear to everyone why you consider that the best policy. And later if you agree to a watered down version that you think would be better than nothing, make it clear what you are doing: accepting a better than nothing outcome for now and continuing the fight for what’s optimal.
It was good that Shorten is now on the public record with his bias accusations against Newscorp.
Saying that, labor has planned for the media attack in this election. They are not stupid. They will play the cards they are dealt.
The trouble with the analysis by the media on “ who is winning this week, this day” and some posters here who complain or demand the labor campaign do this or that is that they are only seeing the duck floating on the pond not the paddling below the surface.
Social media adds, ground campaigns in every electorate by labor volunteers, union volunteers doorknocking around the country to change the rules etc etc etc. are happening with no MSM coverage.
The MSM are either inbreed or Borg and therefore think like the collective and are too lazy to stratch below the surface.
Lot more going on than the 2 minute news grab every night on tv news.
Cheers.
Zoid.
The LNP is an extreme right climate denial party. They proved it by dumping Turnbull.
If you think Labor can negotiate with them you are dreaming. They could not even pass the very weakened down NEG policy Turnbull proposed.
That’s the reality of what the LNP is.
A fact that will see them in opposition for a long long time.
“Darn says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 10:06 am
I see the pointless, boring war of words between the Greens and Labor protagonists has started early again today. It must drive William to despair having to wade through the same repetitive crap day after day, week after week, with no end in sight.
Couldn’t we just declare it a nil all draw and move on to something more productive?”
Wholeheartedly agree. No one involved is going to change their opinion based on these snidey and vindictive comments, and no-one not involved wants to read these personal flame wars.
Turn your energies to trying to persuade those interested but undecided.
In other words simply STOP.
A centrist party won’t always take progressive positions, and thus will negotiate with either side of the political compass.
Mundo
Labor had ads running on Ch7 and FoxFooty last night with most of what you want and in similar vein to ads run through Vic election. An effective ad . Mr Morrison looked very dark.
Sitting at home on Easter Friday trying to use the internet. Not much better than using carrier pigeons. Of course, I bet Malcayman gets to use fibre in New York. What a total grub.
Paul Karp
Verified account @Paul_Karp
23h23 hours ago
The Coalition is bagging international carbon credits, but their own preferred BAEconomics report shows almost every industry better off with them! (Sc2 v Sc3) #auspol
The Republicans’ relentless efforts to demonize Obamacare have made a single payer system much more likely. Their rhetorical overreach has completely defanged the “socialism” scare campaign. Long may they continue to help usher in single payer.
Burgery@7:46am
“America and Americans are completely fucked”
Karma I guess
Sprocket
Appreciate you posting story from the Project.
This story really does stink hugely
“zoomster says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 11:02 am
A centrist party won’t always take progressive positions, and thus will negotiate with either side of the political compass.”
Yes, but their position would depend on tbe issue concerned and what importance they place on it.
They may not always agree with you but progress can come in different forms to different people.
It’s called democracy.