Calm before the storm

A Seinfeld-ian post about nothing, as pollsters hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget.

There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.

For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,286 comments on “Calm before the storm”

Comments Page 40 of 46
1 … 39 40 41 … 46

  2. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 6:37 pm

    Sheridan on the Drum being a grumpy old duffer.’

    He is quite right, IMO.
    His basic point is that we badly need to elevate foreign affairs and defence policy discussions from the invisible to being a core election issue.
    We have operational aircraft over-flying Syria read to bomb ISIS remnants.
    We have troops training Iraqi troops.
    We have troops training Afghan National Army troops.
    The Afghanistan and Syrian situations are extremely volatile and we should be having some sort of national conversation about our ongoing presence in those two states.
    The subs buy, the JSF buy and the frigates buy demonstrate that there is an urgent national debate to be had about our approach to equipping the ADF.
    And I DO mean something more than the Greens’ utter foolishness of gutting the ADF and turning it into a ‘Light Mobile Force.’

  7. WOW.
    Sheridan telling like it is in relation to the Liberal Party’s dealings with Indigenous people: talking out of two sides of its mouth.

  8. It’s becoming more and more obvious that this budget is a total turkey. Its a minus rather than a plus. If ever there was a time for a govt to go big target and pump some blood into its failing veins, this was it. Hello, increase to the GST anyone? But these soft-heads couldn’t see that. Talking about the E team.

    Interestingly, I spoke to a high-flying tax lawyer who says that GST is now probably the biggest source of tax fraud. The rebates being claimed are astronomical. He also said that nobody asks for advice on tax schemes anymore. They just implement them and negotiate a settlement if they’re caught.

  11. The toads are adapting too. Purely on personal experience, compared with the early 1980s I have noticed that toads are smaller, quicker, and timid. (and fewer)

  13. Re Penny Wong. I was incredibly disappointed that following Kate Ellis’s retirement announcement, Penny Wong did not become the Labor candidate for Adelaide. I am sure Steve Georganas would have been happy to take Penny Wong’s place in the Senate, and Don Farrell would have been happy to take over as Labor’s Leader in the Senate!

  15. Hard pressed to think of a way that a flagging government could provide a better platform for the opposition’s campaign launch than this budget in reply. I would think that they usually have an air of the hypothetical given that there is no immediate ability to put them into action from the opposition benches. Tables have turned this time around!

  16. What were we saying about Ms Price the other day?
    ___
    Marcos
    “A Shorten victory will rob Melissa Price of a stellar ministerial career.”

  17. In the 1970’s, toads were thick on the ground where I live.

    Hardly see a one now.

    Never hear frogs croaking though either.

  18. LR
    I had noticed the same sort of differences.
    I suggest that what we are seeing is fairly typical of a population response to a greenfields paradise.
    A possible parallel is what happens with trout in newly filled impoundments.
    I don’t know.

  19. I think that it was worked out a long time ago, that Ms Price would be better off undertaking employment in some other sector of the economy.

  20. Panic stations!

    Embattled MPs query Adani sign off delay

    A delegation of Queensland MPs have held an urgent meeting with Scott Morrison to air concerns about the coalmine.

    1 HOUR AGO By JOE KELLY, MICHAEL MCKENNA
    (Oz headline)

  21. Shift.

    Exactly the reason that there was speculation Morrison might call the election before the reply.

    Also I should note not officially over for Pyne etc. Jumped the gun at twitter photos of Bishop leaving her office for the last time.

  22. ‘b

    An interesting thesis:
    “After working in all corners of the world, I am now more and more convinced that capitalism is actually the result of Western culture, which is predominantly based on expansionism, exceptionalism and aggression. ”’

    Probably a load of cobblers by a self-loathing doctrinaire western Lefty.

    For the thesis to be tenable it would have to conceptually integrate such phenomena as several millenia of Pharaonic Egypt, the rise of the Mongol Empire, the Inca Empire, India under the Moghuls, various South-east Asian Hindu and Buddhist empires, various Chinese dynasties and the rise of the Islamic Empires that covered the whole of the Middle East, stretched into Moghul India, covered the whole of North Africa, Spain and into the southern third of France.

  23. Ms Price would benefit from an onsite Coalition Government sponsored unpaid internship monitoring progress with closing the Christmas Island detention centre.

  26. Boerwar @ #1972 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 7:12 pm

    ‘b

    An interesting thesis:
    “After working in all corners of the world, I am now more and more convinced that capitalism is actually the result of Western culture, which is predominantly based on expansionism, exceptionalism and aggression. ”’

    Probably a load of cobblers by a self-loathing doctrinaire western Lefty.

    For the thesis to be tenable it would have to conceptually integrate such phenomena as several millenia of Pharaonic Egypt, the rise of the Mongol Empire, the Inca Empire, India under the Moghuls, various South-east Asian Hindu and Buddhist empires, various Chinese dynasties and the rise of the Islamic Empires that covered the whole of the Middle East, stretched into Moghul India, covered the whole of North Africa, Spain and into the southern third of France.

    And who is to say it can’t??

  29. b

    I think not.

    I will stick with the cobblers line until the self-hating lefty deals with the whole of human history demonstrating the supposedly unique qualities of Western culture. Claiming ignorance will not cut it.

    The conceptual difficulty is that the empires I listed ALL demonstrated expansionism, exceptionalism and aggression. And none of them seem to have been blamed for the rise of capitalism.

  30. An ignominious and appropriate end to the Morrison government:

    Coalition loses the final vote in the 45th parliament
    Just now, in a rather ignominious end for the Coalition parliamentary sitting, the government has lost the final vote.

    It was a procedural vote – which means it meant nothing – but it was a vote nonetheless.

    It was about a motion passed in the senate (but not the house). That motion basically says the government should lift the 1500GL cap on Commonwealth water buybacks. It passed the senate due to the numbers so it came down to the lower house, for a vote there.

    It says:

    That the Senate—

    (a) notes that:

    (i) the Murray-Darling Royal Commission recommended that future water recovery for the environment, including the 450 GL, should be purchased through buyback, which requires repeal of the 1,500 GL cap on buybacks in section 85C of the Water Act 2007; and

    (ii) the future environmental health of the Murray-Darling Basin relies on additional water recovery; and

    (b) calls on the Federal Government to support the urgent repeal of the 1,500 GL limit on Commonwealth water purchases.

    The Senate requests the concurrence of the House in this resolution.

    The agriculture and water minister David Littleproud tried to move a motion to ensure the house did not agree with lifting the caps which were put in place by this government.

    That vote came down 72-72. In that case, the Speaker Tony Smith has a casting vote and at first he sided with the government. Manager of Opposition business Tony Burke quietly reminded him that the precedent – something Smith has been a stickler for – was for the Speaker not to make a decision the house has not made. Or in other words, the Speaker should not create a majority where there is none.

    Smith acknowledged his mistake, saying:

    At this late hour, I don’t want to be inconsistent. That’s my decision.

    Smith has been an honest and fair speaker, right down to the final sitting day, in my opinion.

    As to the Murray Darling motion, the house does not have a position on it because the chamber did not get around to voting on the substantive issue.

    But the final point was made.

    (From The Guardian 5 minutes ago)

  31. From the SMH reporting of Pyne’s farewell speech: “Julie Bishop left the House in the split second between question time finishing and Pyne’s valedictory beginning”.

  32. ‘guytaur says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 6:57 pm

    Its official.

    Pyne Bishop and others are no longer members of parliament.’

    Are you sure?

  34. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 7:31 pm

    The last time Tony Smith will grace the Speaker’s chair’

    A pity. One of the best.

  39. “Or in other words, the Speaker should not create a majority where there is none.”

    Something like that happened in the House of Commons earlier this week when a Brexit motion was locked 310-310.

  40. The calm before the storm

    On the LNP Front Bench there are people who have announced their resignation from parliament at the upcoming election

    Are the LNP so bereft of talent or so ridden by division that they could not announce and take to the election the front bench they will present to the Nation after the election?

  43. You can tell the difference between the party that has done none of the hard policy yards as opposed to the party which has spent the last 6 years developing sound policies for the country. Josh’s speech was a grab bag of thought bubbles they thought would be vote winners, whereas Bill’s is built on policy substance.

    #chalk&cheese

  45. ‘guytaur says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 7:44 pm

    Tasmanian Upper House has passed Transgender Rights Bill.

    Possibly one of the best in the world.’

    Good on them.

  46. Fulvio Sammut @ #1987 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 7:35 pm

    I hear Pyne has obtained a position as a truffle dog on a farm in Margaret River.

    I was planing on using ‘truffle dog’ as an impolite metaphor for homosexuals…..I think I’ll bin it. Each to their own, respect all humans, only dickheads make jokes about sexuality, etc. So more diversity, now, and less Chris Pyne please…… oh and mea culpa….

  49. Steve777
    Something like that happened in the House of Commons earlier this week when a Brexit motion was locked 310-310.

    I think Bercow was stating that he shouldn’t create a majority where it goes against the status quo .. so he voted NO.. The NOs have it.

    https://youtu.be/AoxbvAYPUZQ

  50. ‘Pica says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 7:49 pm

    Fulvio Sammut @ #1987 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 7:35 pm

    I hear Pyne has obtained a position as a truffle dog on a farm in Margaret River.

    I was planing on using ‘truffle dog’ as an impolite metaphor for homosexuals…’

    I honestly don’t know. Is it some sort of standard homophobic insult?

Comments Page 40 of 46
1 … 39 40 41 … 46

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *